CLASS WATCH: A Summary of What to Expect in 2018

[x14113]

We still have a semester to go in the current cycle, let alone getting ready for the next one, but the classes for the 2018-2020 cycle are already starting to form up.

Such is the consequence of the AAA's method of determining classes... 

Anyway, I've been prowling the ADE Data site for the latest enrollment numbers fairly recently. I'll be posting the details for each class in the coming weeks...except for 7A. It's become a country club there.

I'll post links each individual class thread here.


Some general notes:

--The North Pulaski fallout will be at its zenith with this cycle, with Jacksonville and Sylvan Hills being the most impacted. More on this in the appropriate threads.

--Enrollment as a whole continues to trend upward. An ADM above 900 is needed just to even threaten jumping to 6A, for instance.

--The uphill shift remains steady overall, as the highland schools reap most of the gains and a few lowland schools witness near-catastrophic drops. It's hard to tell just by looking at the below, however.

--There are a few schools changing classes over the summer that look to return two years later.


With that, here are the current lists of schools near each cutoff that I have compiled, colored by if they are On Alert (current PADMs have them moving), On Notice (Latest enrollment is on the other side of current cutoffs), or simply On Watch (hovering near the cutoff). For simplicity's sake, this assumes that the /slashed-in/ schools will remain above the cutoff.

6A/5A: Jacksonville, Sylvan Hills, LR Hall, Mt. Home, Searcy, Texarkana // Greenwood, LR Parkview

5A/4A: Huntsville, Blytheville, Mills, Morrilton /PA/LRC/ De Queen, Berryville, Monticello

4A/3A: Bald Knob, Riverview, DeWitt, Rivercrest, Smackover, Dollarway, Cave City /Shiloh/Subi/BP/CAC/ Booneville, Green Forest, Elkins, Clinton, Harrisburg, West Fork

3A/2A: Palestine-Wheatley, Rison, Charleston, Horatio, Marianna, Danville, Camden Harmony Grove /Jct. City/HA/LRE/ Yellville-Summit, Barton, Salem, England, Lavaca, Fordyce, Gurdon

[HorseFeathers]

Clinton is already dropping to 3A this year...Booneville should be red if I'm following you correctly as well, since they are going up to 4A for 16-18 cycle...

[x14113]

To address in reverse order:

A) I should clarify that these denote potential shifts from the next cycle rather than the current one. In the above case; yes, Booneville's moving up in 2016, but they are currently in position to move back down in 2018. I'll post more details once the smaller-class title games have wrapped up.

B) Each list will have schools to left of the slash-ins (i.e. the cutoff) in the higher class, with those to the right in the lower. Clinton's listed to the right of the cutoff in question and is in position to stay down, but its current enrollment is at the 4A level, which is why it's marked in red. Again, more details will be provided soon.

[HorseFeathers]

To address in reverse order:

A) I should clarify that these denote potential shifts from the next cycle rather than the current one. In the above case; yes, Booneville's moving up in 2016, but they are currently in position to move back down in 2018. I'll post more details once the smaller-class title games have wrapped up.

B) Each list will have schools to left of the slash-ins (i.e. the cutoff) in the higher class, with those to the right in the lower. Clinton's listed to the right of the cutoff in question and is in position to stay down, but its current enrollment is at the 4A level, which is why it's marked in red. Again, more details will be provided soon.

Ah! I got ya now...I've asked this in multiple places, but what years would go into the 2018 cycles numbers? is it 2015, 2016, 2017?

[x14113]

Last (14-15), this (15-16), and next (16-17) year's enrollment numbers are counted for the 2018-2020 cycle. These placements will all but lock in once next year's numbers come out.

Also, next year will count toward 20-22, but that'll be for later.

[Qhcaoc]

Gosnell will be close again as well. I think Blytheville is one cycle off but it looks like Harrisburg and Rivercrest will switch conferences

[OLDSCHOOL82]

Thanks for the work on this thread.

[Lions84]

Keep it up folks !