4A Playoff Scenarios

[x14113]

After 9 weeks, I'll give myself a bit of a cooldown by (at least trying to) establish all remaining scenarios for each conference in Class 4A.

I'll use the following format for each:

Standings (conf. games only, TBP)
Week 10 Games
Scenarios (usually from simplest to most complex)

Wish me luck...I'll need it.

[x14113]

Starting with the 4A-1

Standings:

Prairie Grove 6-0 (78)
Shiloh 5-1 (64)
Gravette 4-2  (49)
Pea Ridge 4-2 (52)
Lincoln 3-3 (27)
Huntsville 1-5 (1)
Gentry 1-5 (13)
Berryville 0-6 (0)


Week 10 Games:

Lincoln @ Prairie Grove
Pea Ridge @ Shiloh
Gravette @ Gentry
Berryville @ Huntsville


Seeding Scenarios:

Prairie Grove will be the 1st seed regardless of outcome.

Lincoln will be the 5th seed regardless of outcome.

Seeds 2-4 remain to be decided.

If Shiloh wins:
2) Shiloh
3) Gravette
4) Pea Ridge

A Saint victory will render Gravette-Gentry meaningless.


If Pea Ridge and Gentry win:
2) Pea Ridge
3) Shiloh
4) Gravette


If Pea Ridge and Gravette win, and the Lions earn at least 3 TBP more:
2) Shiloh
3) Gravette
4) Pea Ridge
(Same as Sc. 1)

If the Lions can match TBP with the Blackhawks in a 3-way tie, they can still secure a home game for Week 11. Otherwise...


In the above, if the Lions fail to earn at least 3 TBP more:
2) Pea Ridge
3) Shiloh
4) Gravette
(Same as Sc. 2)

[hawgfan15]

2-4A is going to take awhile lol Thank you for doing this. I know I will enjoy reading all of the scenarios!

[x14113]

Speaking of which...

4A-2


Standings:

CAC 6-0 (67)
Stuttgart 4-2 (52)
Heber Springs 4-2 (40)
Helena-West Helena 4-2 (38)
Riverview 2-4 (26)
Lonoke 2-4 (23)
Newport 1-5 (13)
Southside BV 1-5 (6)


Week 10 Games:

CAC @ Stuttgart
Heber Springs @ Helena-West Helena
Lonoke @ Riverview
Southside BV @ Newport


Seeding Scenarios:

CAC will be the 1st seed (and outright conference champion) regardless of outcome.

The winner between Lonoke and Riverview will be the 5th seed.

Seeds 2-4 will depend on multiple factors.


If HWH wins:
2) HWH
3) Stuttgart
4) Heber

H2H means the Ricebirds would be locked to the 3rd seed regardless of outcome.


If CAC and Heber win:
2) Heber
3) HWH
4) Stuttgart


If Stuttgart and Heber win:
2) Stuttgart
3) Heber
4) HWH

[beach bum]

The 3-4A will come down to Trumann and Highland for the 3 and 4 spots.... Thanks for the good work!

[x14113]

Funny you should mention the...

4A-3


Standings:

Pocahontas 6-0 (78)
Gosnell 5-1 (65)
Highland 3-3 (39)
Trumann 3-3 (27)
Jonesboro Westside 3-3 (25)
Brookland 2-4 (19)
Cave City 1-5 (13)
Harrisburg1-5 (1)


Week 10 Games:

Jonesboro Westside @ Pocahontas
Harrisburg @ Gosnell
Highland @ Trumann
Cave City @ Brookland


Seeding Scenarios:

Pocahontas is the 1st seed regardless of outcome.

Gosnell is the 2nd seed regardless of outcome.

Seeds 3-5 remain to be settled, with four teams in position.


If Pocahontas and Highland win:
3) Highland
4) Trumann
5) Westside

H2H would mean Brookland would be locked out of Week 11 regardless of outcome.


If Westside and Highland win:
3) Highland
4) Westside
5) Trumann


If Westside, Trumann, and Cave City win:
3) Trumann
4) Westside
5) Highland


If Westside, Trumann, and Brookland win:
3) Trumann
4) Westside
5) Brookland


If Pocahontas and Trumann win, and Brookland wins by at least 7:
3) Trumann
4) Brookland
5) Highland

The Bearcats must surpass Westside in TBP in order to prevail in a 3-Way. Otherwise...


In the above, if Brookland wins by less than 7 (or if Cave City wins):
3) Trumann
4) Highland
5) Westside

[x14113]

4A-4


Standings:

Dardanelle 6-0 (78)
Robinson 4-2 (52)
Dover 4-2 (47)
Pottsville 4-2 (40)
Baptist Prep 3-3 (33)
Ozark 2-4 (20)
Clinton 1-5 (13)
Subiaco 0-6 (0)


Week 10 Games:

Dardanelle @ Subiaco
Robinson @ Ozark
Dover @ Baptist Prep
Clinton @ Pottsville


Seeding Scenarios:

Dardanelle is the 1st seed regardless of outcome.

Seeds 2-5...are a bit of a mess. The playoff teams themselves may have already been determined, but the interplay between Week 10's potential outcomes can present numerous possibilities.


If Robinson, Dover, and Pottsville win:
2) Robinson/Pottsville/Dover
3) Dover/Robinson/Pottsville
4) Pottsville/Dover/Robinson
5) BP

The exact placement of seeds 2-4 will depend greatly on how many TBP are earned by the teams involved. For instance, in order for the middle column (Pottsville as 2nd seed) to take effect, the Apaches must win by at least 13, and the Pirates by less than 6. If all three end up with exactly 53 TBP in this scenario, the seeds will be determined by a flip of the coin.


If Ozark, Dover, and Pottsville win:
2) Dover
3) Pottsville
4) Robinson
5) BP


If Robinson, BP, and Pottsville win:
2) Pottsville
3) Robinson
4) BP
5) Dover


If Robinson, Dover, and Clinton win:
2) Robinson
3) Dover
4) Pottsville
5) BP


If Ozark, BP, and Pottsville win:
2) Pottsville
3) Robinson
4) Dover
5) BP

Low TBP means the Eagles would be stuck in 5th regardless of margin.


If Ozark, Dover, and Clinton win:
2) Dover
3) Pottsville
4) Robinson
5) BP


If Robinson and Clinton win, and BP wins by at least 8:
2) Robinson
3) BP
4) Dover
5) Pottsville

The Eagles will need to surpass Pottsville in TBP to get their highest possible seed. Otherwise, the seeding would be no different than if the Pirates won.


If Ozark, BP, and Clinton win:
2) Pottsville (?)
3) Robinson (?)
4) BP (?)
5) Dover (?)
(Might be the same as Sc. 3)

The above is the dreaded 4-way tie for 2nd. According to Rule 4.14.A of the AAA Handbook, H2H will always be considered first. In this case, the Apaches and Senators would be 2-1 within this group, with the Pirates and Eagles 1-2. From there, H2H would then favor the winners between the above pairs. In all honesty, though, we'll have to see if there was ever a 4-way tie before, and if so, how it was broken.

[x14113]

4A-7


Standings:

Nashville 6-0 (66)
Ashdown 5-1 (52)
Malvern 4-2 (52)
Fountain Lake 4-2 (52)
Arkadelphia 3-3 (35)
Mena 1-5 (13)
Bauxite 1-5 (7)
Waldron 0-6 (0)


Week 10 Games:

Bauxite @ Nashville
Ashdown @ Fountain Lake
Malvern @ Arkadelphia
Mena @ Waldron


Seeding Scenarios:

Nashville is the 1st seed regardless of outcome.

Seeds 2-5 will be settled by the other four playoff teams, as they will be playing each other.


If Ashdown wins:
2) Ashdown
3) Malvern
4) FL
5) Arkadelphia

The Badgers have too few TBP to make any noise should they force a 3-way, rendering their game with the Leopards irrelevant in this scenario.


If Malvern and FL win:
2) Malvern
3) FL
4) Ashdown
5) Arkadelphia


If FL and Arkadelphia win:
2) FL
3) Ashdown
4) Arkadelphia
5) Malvern

[x14113]

4A-8

Standings:

Warren 6-0 (71)
Hamburg 5-1 (54)
Star City 4-2 (52)
Dollarway 4-2 (24)
Crossett 3-3 (38)
Dumas 2-4 (18)
DeWitt 0-6 (0)
Monticello 0-6 (0)


Week 10 Games:

Dollarway @ Warren
Hamburg @ Dumas
Star City @ Crossett
DeWitt @ Monticello


Seeding Scenarios:

Warren is the 1st seed regardless of outcome.

Hamburg is the 2nd seed regardless of outcome.

Seeds 3-5 remain to be settled.


If Star City wins:
3) Star City
4) Dollarway
5) Crossett

H2H means a Bulldog win will make Dollarway-Warren irrelevant.


If Dollarway and Crossett win:
3) Dollarway
4) Crossett
5) Star City


If Warren and Crossett win:
3) Crossett
4) Star City
5) Dollarway

The Cardinals' close wins would come back to bite them here, with too few TBP to have any impact.

[bulldoghistorian]

Thanks for the great work!!

[AirWarren]

Solid work.

[Apache4Life]

Thank you for the time.I was trying to figure tgat 4-4 situation out but you got it down.

[scrapdawgof06]

4A-4


Standings:

Dardanelle 6-0 (78)
Robinson 4-2 (52)
Dover 4-2 (47)
Pottsville 4-2 (40)
Baptist Prep 3-3 (33)
Ozark 2-4 (20)
Clinton 1-5 (13)
Subiaco 0-6 (0)


Week 10 Games:

Dardanelle @ Subiaco
Robinson @ Ozark
Dover @ Baptist Prep
Clinton @ Pottsville


Seeding Scenarios:

Dardanelle is the 1st seed regardless of outcome.

Seeds 2-5...are a bit of a mess. The playoff teams themselves may have already been determined, but the interplay between Week 10's potential outcomes can present numerous possibilities.


If Robinson, Dover, and Pottsville win:
2) Robinson/Pottsville/Dover
3) Dover/Robinson/Pottsville
4) Pottsville/Dover/Robinson
5) BP

The exact placement of seeds 2-4 will depend greatly on how many TBP are earned by the teams involved. For instance, in order for the middle column (Pottsville as 2nd seed) to take effect, the Apaches must win by at least 13, and the Pirates by less than 6. If all three end up with exactly 53 TBP in this scenario, the seeds will be determined by a flip of the coin.


If Ozark, Dover, and Pottsville win:
2) Dover
3) Pottsville
4) Robinson
5) BP


If Robinson, BP, and Pottsville win:
2) Pottsville
3) Robinson
4) BP
5) Dover


If Robinson, Dover, and Clinton win:
2) Robinson
3) Dover
4) Pottsville
5) BP


If Ozark, BP, and Pottsville win:
2) Pottsville
3) Robinson
4) Dover
5) BP

Low TBP means the Eagles would be stuck in 5th regardless of margin.


If Ozark, Dover, and Clinton win:
2) Dover
3) Pottsville
4) Robinson
5) BP


If Robinson and Clinton win, and BP wins by at least 8:
2) Robinson
3) BP
4) Dover
5) Pottsville

The Eagles will need to surpass Pottsville in TBP to get their highest possible seed. Otherwise, the seeding would be no different than if the Pirates won.


If Ozark, BP, and Clinton win:
2) Pottsville (?)
3) Robinson (?)
4) BP (?)
5) Dover (?)
(Might be the same as Sc. 3)

The above is the dreaded 4-way tie for 2nd. According to Rule 4.14.A of the AAA Handbook, H2H will always be considered first. In this case, the Apaches and Senators would be 2-1 within this group, with the Pirates and Eagles 1-2. From there, H2H would then favor the winners between the above pairs. In all honesty, though, we'll have to see if there was ever a 4-way tie before, and if so, how it was broken.

That's alot of if's...

[LION Dad]

Help me out if I'm wrong but in the instance of a 3 way tie the TBP just determines the higher seed and then the next two seeds are determined by the head to head game?

So if Pea Ridge was to win by 10 they would still be the 4 Shiloh the 2 and Gravette the 3 as long as they beat Gentry

Shiloh at 64 TBP
Pea Ridge at 52 TBP

Or did I read the rule wrong

[FBfan79]

Help me out if I'm wrong but in the instance of a 3 way tie the TBP just determines the higher seed and then the next two seeds are determined by the head to head game?

So if Pea Ridge was to win by 10 they would still be the 4 Shiloh the 2 and Gravette the 3 as long as they beat Gentry

Shiloh at 64 TBP
Pea Ridge at 52 TBP

Or did I read the rule wrong

I think the points determine the lowest seed then the higher seeds are head to head.

[LION Dad]

I read it wrong I see now

[bulldoghistorian]

If 3 teams or more have the same record, the first scenario you use is head to head.
If those 3 teams are 1-1 against each other, then you use the tiebreaker point system.
The team with the least amount of points would finish the lowest seed of the 3, then it's head to head between the other 2 teams.
If all 3 teams have the same record, are 1-1 against each other, and have the same amount of tiebreaker points, then a coin flip will be used.