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Author Topic: Playoff Scenarios for Week 10 - All classes  (Read 2479 times)

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Offline woodpeckerfsm

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Playoff Scenarios for Week 10 - All classes
« on: November 02, 2014, 05:22:59 pm »
NOTE - If you want a particular classification, go to the specific bulletin board and it is posted there.

Class 7A
7A, compared to other conferences, are pretty simple. Even the West scenarios are pretty routine.

   Bentonville, Fayetteville, Northside and Southside are tied for 1st with a 5-1 record. All four teams will get a home playoff game the winners get a 1st round bye and a 2nd round home game while the losers will host a 1st round game.
   That sets up a two-game showdown Friday for the top 4 seeds Fayetteville at Bentonville, Northside at Southside. That will decide seeds 1-4. All four teams can be the 1-2-3-4 seeds depending on the outcomes. There are only 4 scenarios.
  • Northside & Bentonville win Bentonville 1, Northside 2, Fayetteville 3, Southside 4.
  • Northside & Fayetteville win Northside 1, Fayetteville 2, Southside 3, Bentonville 4.
  • Southside & Bentonville win Southside 1, Bentonville 2, Northside 3, Fayetteville 4.
  • Southside & Fayetteville win Fayetteville 1, Southside 2, Bentonville 3, Northside 4.
Har-Ber and Rogers Heritage, both 2-4, will play for the 5 with the loser getting the 6 seeds.

   Bryant (2-0) will host Conway (2-0) Friday for the Central title. Winner gets a 1st round bye and 2nd round home game while the loser still hosts a 1st round game.
   Van Buren (0-2) travels to LR Catholic (0-2) Friday at War Memorial Stadium for a winner-take-all game to see who gets into the 7A playoffs. The loser is finished for the season.

   LR Central is (2-0) will play North Little Rock (2-0) Friday Thursday at War Memorial Stadium with the winner the 1 seed and the loser the 2 seed. Cabot (1-2) is locked in as the third seed.

Class 6A
The South and Central have a few tricky spots, but again nothing super complicated.

   Benton (6-0) will travel to Pine Bluff (6-0) for the 6A-South title and the top seed. The loser still gets the 2 seed and 1st round bye.
   Right now, El Dorado and Lake Hamilton and Parkview are 3-3 and all have clinched a playoff berth. This week, Lake Hamilton plays Hall while Parkview battles El Dorado. If Lake Hamilton wins and El Dorado wins, Lake Hamilton is third and the Wildcats 4th. But if Parkview and Lake Hamilton win, the Patriots are 3rd, Wolves are 4th and Wildcats 5th.
Texarkana (2-4) is in with a win over Sheridan (1-5), but if the Yellowjackets win, then they are in as the 6th seed and the Razorbacks are out. If Texarkana wins and Parkview loses to El Dorado, the Texarkana will be the 5th seed and Parkview sixth. If El Dorado loses to Parkview and Texarkana wins, El Dorado is the 5th seed and Texarkana 6th.

   There are a lot of different scenarios here to contemplate. A couple of scenarios are pretty easy while the others can get a bit messy. Right now, Greenwood and Alma have clinched playoff berths.
  • Greenwood is the 1 seed with a win over Alma and Siloam would be 2nd with a win over Russellville while the Airedales would be third.
  • If Alma beats Greenwood and Russellville beats Siloam, then Alma is the 1 seed, Greenwood second and Russellville third.
  • If Greenwood wins and Russellville beats Siloam, the Greenwood is the 1 seed while Alma, Siloam and Russellville will finish in a 3-way triangle at 1-2 and tiebreakers will be needed to determine the 2-3 seeds and who is out. If Russellville wins by 3 points or more, then Siloam is eliminated. Alma will be the 2 seed and Russellville third. If Russellville only wins by 2 points or less, then Siloam will be the 2 seed and Alma third.
  • If Alma and Siloam win, then there is a 3-way tie at 2-1 between Greenwood, Alma and Siloam (Russellville would be out). A tiebreaker will be used to settle the 1-2-3 seeds. If Alma beats Greenwood by at least 13 points or has an equal or bigger winning margin that Siloam, then the top 3 order will be Alma, Greenwood and Siloam. If Siloam wins by 13 or more and Alma wins by 12 or less, the seeding order becomes Greenwood, Siloam, Alma. The key here that if Alma wins by 12 points or less, Siloam has to win by 1 point more.

   Jonesboro is the 1 seed no matter what happens with Marion Friday because it controls the tiebreaker. Searcy is second and Marion third.
   Right now, Jonesboro and Searcy have 26 tiebreaker points each while Marion has just 10 and the most that the Patriots can have is 23. So Jonesboro and Searcy have the 2 most points and the Hurricane beat the Lions so JHS is the 1 seed. Searcy beat Marion so the Lions are 2nd and the Pats are the 3 seed.

Class 5A

   Maumelle is the outright conference champion and 1 seed.
Harrison, LR Christian and Greenbrier are 4-2 while Vilonia is 3-3.
If Greenbrier wins, they are the 2 seed (the Eagles Panthers have beaten both Harrison and LR Christian). If Vilonia beats Greenbrier, Harrison becomes the 2 seed with a win. LR Christian can be the 2 seed by beating Maumelle and if Greenbrier and Harrison lose.
The only way for Vilonia (3-3) to get into the playoffs is by beating Greenbrier and then they would need some help. For example, have Harrison and LR Christian win. In that scenario, Greenbrier and Vilonia will tie at 4-3 and Vilonia has the head-to-head tiebreak. If LR Christian loses and Vilonia beats Greenbrier, those three teams will be tied at 4-3, need a tiebreaker for seeds 3-4. Should Harrison lose, there could even be a 4-way tie at 4-3 needing a tiebreaker for seeds 2-4.

   Batesville (6-0) has at least a share of the conference champion and the No. 1 seed.
Wynne and Nettleton (both 5-1) will play for the 2nd and 3rd seeds this week. Forrest City (3-3) and Blytheville (2-4) play for the No. 4 seed.

Hot Springs and Watson Chapel (5-1) have both clinched playoff berths, as has Camden Fairview (4-2). Fairview plays Watson Chapel this week while Hot Springs faces HS Lakeside (3-3).
   If Hot Springs is the 1 seed with a win or Watson Chapel loss. The Wildcats can be the 1 seed with a win and Hot Springs loss. If Fairview beats Watson Chapel, the Cardinals are the 2 seed and Wildcats third.
White Hall (3-3) is in with a win over DeQueen no matter what Lakeside does. Lakeside must beat Hot Springs and get DeQueen to beat White Hall to get in.

   BULLETIN - The AAA announced that LR McClellan has forfeited 2 conference games, including one against Beebe.
Beebe is now 5-1 in the Central and McClellan drops to 2-4.

Pulaski Academy (6-0) can win the outright title with a win over Sylvan Hills (5-1), but a Bear win creates a 3-way tie with Beebe (5-1) if the Badgers beat North Pulaski. If PA wins, Beebe is the 2 seed and Sylvan Hills is the 3 seed.
As for the fourth seed, Jacksonville (3-3) and LR McClellan (2-4) are playing a winner-take-all game for the final spot.

Pulaski Academy (6-0) and Sylvan Hills (5-1) have a showdown Friday for the 1-2 seeds. Sylvan Hills can only be the 1 seed by beating PA, but a Bear loss could drop them to the 3rd seed if Beebe wins. LR McClellan and Beebe (both 4-2) can clinch berths by winning. If Beebe wins and Jacksonville (3-3) beats McClellan, then Jacksonville can get into the playoffs and McClellan is out.

Class 4A
   Pea Ridge and Shiloh Christian (both 6-0) play Friday for the top 2 seeds. Prairie Grove (4-2) is the third seed. Gravette and Gentry (both 3-3) play Friday for the 4-5 seeds.

   Helena-West Helena (5-1) is the one seed with a win over Heber Springs (4-2). Newport (5-1) is the 1 seed with a win and a Helena-West Helena loss. A Heber Springs and Newport loss could force a 3-way tie with Helena-West Helena. Lonoke is in the playoff with a win, as is the CAC-Stuttgart winner (both CAC and Stuttgart are 3-3).

   Pocahontas, Gosnell and Highland (5-1) are each a win away from a tie-breaker for the 1-2-3 seeds. Cave City and Jonesboro Westside (both 3-3) are in as their games will decide the 4-5 seeds. If Cave City wins, it is the fourth seed.

   Dardanelle (6-0) is the 1 seed. Clinton (5-1) will be the 2 seed with a win over Pottsville (4-2), which would give Dover the 3 seed dropping Pottsville to 4th. A Pottsville win can create a 3-way tie with Clinton and Dover (4-2).
Pulaski Robinson (2-4) is the 5th seed with a win over Ozark, but a loss can give the seed to Arkansas Baptist with a win over Dover.

   Nashville (5-1) is the 1 seed no matter what and is the outright champion with a win over Bauxite (2-4). Mena, if they beat winless Waldron, and the Arkadelphia-Malvern winner will be the 2nd and 3rd seed. The Arkadelphia-Malvern loser (both are 4-2) and Fountain Lake (3-3), with a win over Ashdown, will vie for the 4th and 5th seed.

   Warren (6-0) has won a share of the conference title, but must beat Dollarway (5-1) to get the 1 seed. If Dollarway wins, the Cardinals are the top seed while the Lumberjacks are second. If Warren wins, Dollarway could be in a 3-way tie for second with Hamburg and Star City (both 4-2). Crossett (3-3) is in and could be the 4 seed with a win over Star City, which would become the 5 seed.

Class 3A
   The five seeds are set West Fork (6-0), Mountain View (5-1), Greenland (5-1), Elkins (3-3) and Green Forest (3-3). West Fork can win the conference with a win over Greenland in Week 10. If Greenland wins, that could force a 3-way tie with Mountain View. Elkins and Green Forest play for the 4-5 seeds this week.

   Harding Academy (6-0) is the 1 seed and Mayflower (5-1) is the 2 seed. Barton is the 3 seed with a win over Rose Bud. Bald Knob is the likely 4th seed while Marianna is the likely 5th seed.

   Osceola leads at 6-0 and have clinched the 1 seed. Hoxie (5-1) is the 2 seed. Melbourne (4-2) is the 3 seed with a win with Rivercrest (4-2) the likely 4th seed. Corning (2-4) is the fifth seed with a win over Piggott, but a loss can give the seed to Manila (2-4) with a win over Hoxie.

   The top 3 seeds are set 1, Charleston (6-0); 2, Booneville (5-1); 3, Lamar (4-2).
Danville (3-3) is the 4 seed with a win over Two Rivers giving Lavaca (3-3) the 5 seed. If Lavaca wins and Danville loses, then the Golden Arrow are 4th and Danville 5th.

   Prescott (6-0) is the 1 seed while LR Episcopal Collegiate is the 2 seed and Benton Harmony Grove (4-2) the third seed. Centerpoint (3-3) is the fourth seed with a win over Bismarck (2-4). A Centerpoint loss could lift Bismarck, Glen Rose and Jessieville (all 2-4) in the playoff conversation with wins this week.

   Smackover is the 1 seed after beating McGehee last week. McGehee and Fordyce (both 5-1) play for the 2-3 seeds this week. Fouke (3-3) is the 4 seed with a win over Lake Village. Camden Harmony Grove and Genoa Central (both 2-4) are battling for the 5 seed.

Class 2A
   Cross County (6-0) has a share of the conference title, but must beat Earle to clinch the top seed. If Cross County wins, East Poinsett County is the 2 seed while Earle is the 3 seed. If Earle wins by 4 points or more, then Earle gets the 1 seed, Cross County the 2 seed and East Poinsett Co. the third seed. Marked Tree and Walnut Ridge are both 3-3, but the Indians hold the tiebreaker. If Marked Tree wins, it is the 4 seed and Walnut Ridge fifth.

   Hector (7-0) has wrapped up the top seed. If Hackett (5-2) wins, then the Hornets are the 2 seed and Mountainburg (6-2) is third. Union Christian and Western Yell County (both 4-3) will meet for the 4-5 seeds. Should Union Christian lose and Decatur (3-4) win, then Decatur is the 5 seed and Union Christian is eliminated.

   Conway Christian (6-0) is the top seed. Poyen (5-1) is the 2 seed with a win over England. Both England and Magnet Cove are 4-2. Magnet Cove is the 3 seed with a win and an England loss. If England beats Poyen and Magnet Cove loses, then there will be a 3-way tiebreaker to settle the 2-3-4 seeds. Bigelow is the fifth seed win or lose because it owns the tiebreaker.

   Hazen (7-0) is the top seed and Des Arc (6-1) is the second seed. McCrory (5-2) is the 3 seed with a win over Carlisle (4-3), but a loss to Carlisle can force a 3-way tie along with Brinkley (4-3). If Carlisle loses, Brinkley is the 4 seed and Carlisle 5th.

   Gurdon (6-0) is the 1 seed. Mount Ida plays Lafayette County (both 5-1) for the 2-3 seeds. Dierks and Murfressboro (both 3-3) play for the 4-5 seeds.

   Junction City (7-0) is the 1 seed. Rison (5-1) clinches the 2 seed with a win over Woodlawn (4-2), giving Bearden (4-2) the 3 seed and Woodlawn 4th. A Woodlawn win, however, likely creates a 3-way tie along with Rison and Bearden.
Hermitage (2-4) can clinch the 5 seed with a win over Bearden. If Hermitage loses, however, that forces a 3-way tie between Hermitage, Strong (2-5) and Parkers Chapel (1-5), which faces Hampton (0-6). Using the tiebreaker, Parkers Chapel gets the 5th seed by winning by 2 points or more. If Parkers Chapel wins by just 1 point, Strong gets the 5 seed.

« Last Edit: November 08, 2014, 04:32:40 pm by woodpeckerfsm »

Offline Intelligentsia

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Re: Playoff Scenarios for Week 10 - All classes
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2014, 07:31:18 am »
Great post - thanks for the effort!


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