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Looking at specific tiebreaker situations (as they stand on May 9th)

Started by puma, April 26, 2014, 01:10:28 pm

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puma

Edit/note from sevenof400: Posts from other threads that relate to tiebreaker situations have been and will be moved to this thread. The original OP for this thread -discussing the tiebreaking procedures- can be found here.

Whos currently winning the tie breaker between the girls LRC & PA?

Arbitro

Quote from: puma on April 26, 2014, 01:10:28 pm
Whos currently winning the tie breaker between the girls LRC & PA
Through 4/24 it looks like this:
Head to head: even
Margin of victory in head to head: even
Goals scored in winning conference games (max 3): LRC 15, PA 14

Both teams have maxed out the goals against the other conference opponents so far, so if that holds true in the remaining games LRC girls will be #1.

Sir Alex

Arbitro,

Count the winning margins again.  I having both PA and LRCA having received max points in every win but against each other which were two goals wins.  With that said they are dead even on everything.  If nothing changes it would be a coin toss.  Please correct me if I miscounted.

sevenof400

In this thread, please find specific discussion on any current potential tiebreaker situations. 


As a reminder, I have posted the tiebreaker procedures for soccer in this thread.

(The info there is a direct copy / paste from the AAA manual...)

Please note these situations were chosen for illustration because the teams have completed their head to head play in conference. 

sevenof400

Updated 5/9/2014

In the case of the PA and LRCA boys, here is how the tiebreaker works at present:

Since the two teams split their two games (7.A.1), and the goal differential is also even after the two games (7.A.2), we move to 7.A.3 (which is goal differential in the winning games only .... note that is different than what is used to in the club world.....)


PA 8, Jax 2 - GD 3 (max)
PA 7, Mills 0 - GD 3 (max)
PA 4, LRCA 3 - GD 1
PA 7, LR McClellan 0 - GD 3 (max)
PA 1(3), Sylvan Hills 1(0) - GD 1 (victories in KFTM mean a GD of 1)
PA 6, Jax 0 - GD 3 (max)
PA 1(4), LRCA 1(5) (loss, no GD)
PA 6, Mills 0 - GD 3 (max)
PA 7, North Pulaski 1 - GD 3 (max)
PA 9, LR McClellan 0 - GD 3 (max)
PA 7, North Pulaski 0 - GD 3 (max)
PA 2, Sylvan Hills 1 - GD 1

PA Goal Differential through 12 conference games: 27

LRCA 6, LR McClellan 0 - GD 3 (max)
PA 4, LRCA 3 (loss, no GD)
LRCA 2, Jax 0 - GD 2
LRCA 7, Mills 0 - GD 3 (max)
LRCA 2, Sylvan Hills 0 - GD 2
LRCA 8, N Pulaski 0 - GD 3 (max)
LRCA 10, LR McClellan 0 - GD 3 (max)
LRCA 1(5), PA 1(4) - GD 1
LRCA 7, Jacksonville 0 - GD 3 (max)
LRCA 10, LR Mills 0 - GD 3 (max)
LRCA 2, Sylvan Hills 1 - GD 1
LRCA 7, North Pulaski 0 - GD 3 (max)

LRCA Goal Differential through 12 conference games: 27

The two teams have finished conference play tied on total goal differential and are headed to a coin flip that LRCA has won. LRCA is the #1 seed based on the coin flip result.

At present, there are no forfeited games to consider so rule 7.A.4 does not apply.  If the tie in goal differential remains, these two teams will be heading to a flip of the coin to decide the #1 and #2 seeds.

sevenof400

Updated 4/27/2014

In the case of the PA and LRCA girls, here is how the tiebreaker works at present:

Since the two teams split their two games (7.A.1), we move to goal differential in the two head to head conference games.

I had an incorrect score reported for the first matchup between LRCA and PA.  The correct results are:
Game 1: LRCA 1(3), PA 1(1)
Game 2: PA 2, LRCA 0

With that in mind, PA holds the advantage in goal differential in head to head games and will win the #1 seed should the two teams finish tied.


Remember that goal differential for an overtime victory is one goal, regardless of the KFTM score. 

LRCA received a GD of 1 for their win while PA received a GD of 2 for their win.
The PA girls control their own fortunes.

Arbitro

Quote from: Sir Alex on April 26, 2014, 07:14:10 pm
Arbitro,

Count the winning margins again.  I having both PA and LRCA having received max points in every win but against each other which were two goals wins.  With that said they are dead even on everything.  If nothing changes it would be a coin toss.  Please correct me if I miscounted.
I'm no expert, but here is how I interpreted it.  Tiebreaker rules:
QuoteRule 7. STATE QUALIFYING TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE
A. If two teams are tied from regular season conference play, tie-breaker procedure will be
1. Head to head in regular season conference play
2. If the two teams have split, margin of victory between the two teams, with a maximum of three (3)
goals per game
3. If the two teams are still tied, all winning conference game goals, with a maximum of three (3) goals
per game
4. Forfeited games. Offended teams shall receive three (3) goals when tabulating the sum of the
winning margins for breaking conference ties. Teams will receive no goals for tied conference
games.
5. If two teams are still tied, a coin flip by the Arkansas Activities Association Executive Director or his
designee will decide seeding.
There is no score posted for the 4/25 PA game, so as of 4/24 both teams are 5-1 and the tiebreaker steps are as follows:
1. PA and LRC split their games so they are even (still tied)
2. In the the head to head games LRC won 3-1 and PA won 2-0, a goal differential of 2 for each so they are still tied.
3. Step 3 only counts goals scored (not GD) from the conference games each team wins, with a max of 3 per game. 
PA's wins were 12-0, 9-0, 4-0, 11-0, and 2-0.  3+3+3+3+2 = 14
LRC's wins were 3-1, 10-0, 8-0, 7-0, and 9-0.  3+3+3+3+3 = 15
That puts LRC in front for now, assuming I am reading the rules correctly.

Edit: and now my analysis is doubly wrong.   :(




Arbitro

Quote from: sevenof400 on April 26, 2014, 08:26:00 pm
In the case of the PA and LRCA girls, here is how the tiebreaker works at present:

Since the two teams split their two games (7.A.1), and the goal differential is also even after the two games (7.A.2), we move to 7.A.3 (which is goal differential in the winning games only .... note that is different than what is used to in the club world.....)

PA 12, Jax 0 - GD 3 (max)
PA 9, Mills 0 - GD 3 (max)
LRCA 3, PA 1 (loss, no GD)
PA 4, Sylvan Hills 0 - GD 3 (max)
PA 11, Jax 0 - GD 3 (max)
PA 2, LRCA 0 - GD 2

PA Goal Differential through 6 conference games: 14

LRCA 3, PA 1- GD 2
LRCA 10, Jax 0 - GD 3 (max)
LRCA 8, Mills 0 - GD 3 (max)
LRCA 7, Sylvan Hills 0 - GD 3 (max)
LRCA 9, N Pulaski 0 - GD 3 (max)
PA 2, LRCA 0 (loss, no GD)

LRCA Goal Differential through 6 conference games: 14

As things stand at present, the two teams are tied in goal differential with four conference games remaining for both teams. 

PA @ Mills (April 25th) - need result
North Pulaski @ PA (April 28th)
PA @ North Pulaski (May 7th)
Sylvan Hills @ PA (May 8th)


LRCA @ Jacksonville (April 28th)
LR Mills @ LRCA (May 1st)
LRCA @ Sylvan Hills (May 6th)
LRCA @ North Pulaski (May 8th)

At present, there are no forfeited games to consider so rule 7.A.4 does not apply.  If the tie in goal differential remains, these two teams will be heading to a flip of the coin to decide the #1 and #2 seeds.
But tiebreaker #3 says:
Quote3. If the two teams are still tied, all winning conference game goals, with a maximum of three (3) goals
per game
That is goals scored in winning conference games, not goal differential (at least as it is written).  This would put LRC ahead 15-14.  Does AAA have a different interpretation of the rule?

Arbitro

Ok, now I'm confused.  The tiebreaker for two teams seems to count goals - not goal differential - in conference wins.  But when you read the tiebreaking procedure for more than two teams
QuoteC. If three or more teams are tied and each team has split (or a perfect triangle), each position will be decided using the two team tie-breaking procedure in paragraph A to determine which two teams go head to head for the first available position. First, tabulate the margin of victory in all conference games (up to 3 goals per game). The two teams with the greatest margin of victory in conference games shall utilize the procedure in paragraph A to determine the first position available. Use the same process to determine the second position available and all other positions available for the teams involved in a three or more team "perfect triangle" tie.
Why would they use goals scored for two teams and goal differential for three or more?  I give up.

Sir Alex

Seven has it right.  It is goal differential up to three goals.  That is how the aaa will interpret it.  Seen it before a few years back when Harrison, Siloam and Greenwood were tied.  I am sure it has happened since then as well. 

It is what you win by up to three goals.  So the girls and as seven has it, the boys are tied as well...  May be it will be a double sided heads coin. 


sevenof400

Arbitro,

I agree with you on the wording of the rule - it can be read in multiple ways.  I did send an email to AAA to confirm that it is indeed goal differential (up to three goals max, per game) from winning conference games only that is used in the calculation detailed in 7.A.3.

This rule clearly needs revision - if for no other reason than to increase its clarity. 

Personally, I think the current tiebreaking process lacks enough substance because too many situations get to coin flips (not just in soccer but in all high school sports).  A coin flip should be an absolute last ditch method to break a tie.  In Arkansas high school sports it is invoked far too often. 

Arbitro

Quote from: Sir Alex on April 26, 2014, 11:36:09 pm
Seven has it right.  It is goal differential up to three goals.  That is how the aaa will interpret it.  Seen it before a few years back when Harrison, Siloam and Greenwood were tied.  I am sure it has happened since then as well. 

It is what you win by up to three goals.  So the girls and as seven has it, the boys are tied as well...  May be it will be a double sided heads coin.
I vaguely recall that discussion.  I was probably wrong then too.  It shouldn't be that hard to write rules and procedures that clearly describe exactly what you want, but I guess other issues are a higher priority.

mijally

Goal or point differential should never be used in high school athletics as a tiebreaker because it encourages coaches and teams to run up the score on opponents. Running up the score is always poor sportsmanship and should never be acceptable. If you are not going to play a 1 game playoff then flip a coin. If you're good enough to win state your seeding won't matter.

mijally

LRC and PA should settle it after school on the field at Burns Park.

Sir Alex

Quote from: mijally on April 27, 2014, 11:40:06 am
Goal or point differential should never be used in high school athletics as a tiebreaker because it encourages coaches and teams to run up the score on opponents. Running up the score is always poor sportsmanship and should never be acceptable. If you are not going to play a 1 game playoff then flip a coin. If you're good enough to win state your seeding won't matter.

That is why they only go up to three goals. 

Sir Alex

Quote from: mijally on April 27, 2014, 11:41:59 am
LRC and PA should settle it after school on the field at Burns Park.

They had two chances at that already, but I agree.  It should be settled on the field, not at the AAA office.  A few games are left for both teams may be one or the other will come up a goal short....  I don't see either team doing that though.

Arbitro

Quote from: mijally on April 27, 2014, 11:41:59 am
LRC and PA should settle it after school on the field at Burns Park.
If they played a third time, odds are they woul be tied after regulation and have to go to PKs to decide. Another artificial way to decide a winner (but at least marginally related to the game).

sevenof400

All, please note I recorded an incorrect score for the first PA / LRCA girls game.  Please see this message for an update.

Sorry to all for any confusion. 


sevenof400

Boys West: Greenbrier -v- Huntsville

Greenbrier won the 1st meeting 4-3
Huntsville the 2nd 0(4) - 0(3).

Head to head is split and the goal differential is identical.

Greenbrier's GD in their 6 wins:

GB 4, Hunts 3, GD 1
GB 2, Harrison 1, GD 1
GB 7, Morr 0, GD 3 (max)
GB 3, Clarksville 0, GD 3
GB 2(4), Harrison 2(2), GD 1 (all wins in KFTM result in a one goal margin of victory)
GB 3, Morr 0, GD 3 (max)

Greenbrier total goal differential after 7 games played: 12


Huntsville's GD in their 4 wins:
Hunts 1, Harrison 0, GD 1
Hunts 2, Morr 1, GD 1
Hunts 0(4), GB 0(3), GD 1
Hunts 2(4), Clarks 2(3), GD 1

Huntsville total goal differential after 6 games played: 4

Even if Huntsville hits the maximum in goal differential in their remaining two games, the best the Eagles can do is +10. 

With GB already at +12, Greenbrier is your 2014 5A West Conference Champions.

Arbitro

Quote from: sevenof400 on May 03, 2014, 04:55:43 pm
Boys West: Greenbrier -v- Huntsville

Greenbrier won the 1st meeting 4-3
Huntsville the 2nd 0(4) - 0(3).

Head to head is split and the goal differential is identical.

Greenbrier's GD in their 6 wins:

GB 4, Hunts 3, GD 1
GB 2, Harrison 1, GD 1
GB 7, Morr 0, GD 3 (max)
GB 3, Clarksville 0, GD 3
GB 2(4), Harrison 2(2), GD 1 (all wins in KFTM result in a one goal margin of victory)
GB 3, Morr 0, GD 3 (max)

Greenbrier total goal differential after 7 games played: 12


Huntsville's GD in their 4 wins:
Hunts 1, Harrison 0, GD 1
Hunts 2, Morr 1, GD 1
Hunts 0(4), GB 0(3), GD 1
Hunts 2(4), Clarks 2(3), GD 1

Huntsville total goal differential after 6 games played: 4

Even if Huntsville hits the maximum in goal differential in their remaining two games, the best the Eagles can do is +10. 

With GB already at +12, Greenbrier is your 2014 5A West Conference Champions.
Isn't it simpler than that? Isn't Huntsville's PK head to head win counted as a tie for the h2h goal differential? So Greenbrier gets the #1 seed based on a h2h goal differential of 1 to 0.

sevenof400

Quote from: Arbitro on May 03, 2014, 05:32:55 pm
Isn't it simpler than that? Isn't Huntsville's PK head to head win counted as a tie for the h2h goal differential? So Greenbrier gets the #1 seed based on a h2h goal differential of 1 to 0.

I do recall that the goal differential for games decided in KFTM is counted as 1 for the winning team but I can't find that in print anywhere....I'll keep looking though.

The Coach

All Harrison has to do is beat Huntsville on Tuesday and they'll be the 2 seed. Lose and they'll  be the 3 seed.

sevenof400

Quote from: The Coach on May 03, 2014, 06:11:41 pm
All Harrison has to do is beat Huntsville on Tuesday and they'll be the 2 seed. Lose and they'll  be the 3 seed.

I had to look a bit deeper here to confirm but I'd say you are correct. 

Huntsville won the 1st meeting 1-0.

Let's say Harrison wins by one goal in the rematch.  That means the Gobs finish 5-3.
If Huntsville beats Morrilton, they too would be 5-3 and the head to head would be split.

Looking at goal differential to date:

Harrison 3, Morr 0 - GD 3
Harrison 3, Clarks 0 - GD 3
Harrison 1, Morr 0 - GD 1
Harrison 3(6), Clarks 3(5), GD 1

Huntsville 1, Harrison 0 - GD 1
Huntsville 2, Harrison 1 - GD 1
Huntsville 2, Morr 1 - GD 1
Huntsville 0(4), Greenbrier 0(3), GD 1

Harrison has a 10 - 4 lead in GD after four winning games for each and should Harrison win the rematch, that difference could only grow.  Huntsville would only have one game remaining and could not make up the goal differential. 

Bottom line: I agree with you Coach, the winner of the rematch (on May 6) will be the 2 seed.

NWAguy

Does a team qualify for state by how they finish in the conference standings or by points? Are points just used for seeding? I was looking at the Rogers/Heritage match up this week. It looks like heritage is way behind on points but could jump rogers based on record and head to head match up. IDK, if someone smarter than me who knows the way it works could help that would be awesome. What would happen IF harber lost their next two? would they factor in at that point with Heritage and Rogers..?

Go Postal

Quote from: NWAguy on May 05, 2014, 01:46:45 pm
Does a team qualify for state by how they finish in the conference standings or by points? Are points just used for seeding? I was looking at the Rogers/Heritage match up this week. It looks like heritage is way behind on points but could jump rogers based on record and head to head match up. IDK, if someone smarter than me who knows the way it works could help that would be awesome. What would happen IF harber lost their next two? would they factor in at that point with Heritage and Rogers..?
Depends if they are in the 7A, 6A, 5A or 4A.  See my thread on "Arkansas High School Soccer 1998 to Present".  I believe that the information is right for the 7A/6A teams, but I can be corrected.

Fox 16 Arkansas Fox 24 Arkansas