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Author Topic: 2012 Class 7A/6A Preseason rankings by RPS  (Read 2772 times)

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Offline Rich Sanders

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2012 Class 7A/6A Preseason rankings by RPS
« on: July 29, 2012, 02:09:06 am »
Overall Top 10
1. Bentonville
2. Fayetteville
3. North Little Rock
4. Springdale Har-Ber
5. El Dorado
6. Pulaski Academy
7. West Memphis
8. Conway
9. Greenwood
10. Camden Fairview

Class 7A
 1. Bentonville   111.8   As long as there's just one school in town, Tigers have shot at No. 1
 2. Fayetteville   108.4   Two state titles, but Bulldogs still don't have a year-end top ranking
 3. North Little Rock   105.3   A team on the verge of contending in 2011 returns 18 starters
 4. S'dale Har-Ber   104.0   Starts the year as West's third best team, but fourth place is better
 5. West Memphis   101.6   Blue Devils have more competition for the East crown they've owned
 6. Conway   101.5   Two potential super-teamers could help Wampus Cats win at Southside on Oct. 12
 7. FS Southside   100.5   Rebels have new league affiliation and just one super-teamer among 7 returning starters
 8. Bryant    99.0   Despite eight wins, Hornets were stung twice by a 5-7 team from Fort Smith Northside
 9. LR Central   98.3   If Tigers are able to raise their game, the East could emerge as the second best league
10. Cabot    97.0   Malham's first win in 2012 will be his 250th career victory as Panthers' head coach

Class 6A
 1. El Dorado   103.1   Winning a fourth consecutive state title will be impressive even if it is "just" 6A
 2. Greenwood   101.3   Bulldogs jump up from Class 5A to become immediate contenders in this class
 3. Lake Hamilton   101.1   Wolves split with El Dorado, but a misplayed punt cost them a state title
 4. Pine Bluff   98.4   Zebras haven't been great under Bolding, but they have been very good
 5. Jonesboro   98.2   Hurricane finally cracks semifinal curse after more than 30 years
 6. Searcy    91.5   Eight offensive starters return from a team that scored 28 or more in 10 games
 7. Marion    91.2   Lost to eventual champions, 16-15, and brings back nine defensive starters
 8. Russellville   90.2   Cyclones burdened by eight-game losing streak entering 2012 campaign
 9. LR Parkview   89.8   QB led Patriots to 3-1 start before getting sidelined with an injury
10. Siloam Springs   89.8   Will be tested severely and possibly beaten down by postseason

Offline The Future

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Re: 2012 Class 7A/6A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2012, 08:13:55 am »
This overall top ten makes more sense than the one in the other thread

Offline B.G.

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Re: 2012 Class 7A/6A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2012, 08:40:13 am »
Welcome back to our friend Rich.

Offline phdefense

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Re: 2012 Class 7A/6A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2012, 09:10:50 am »
Ah nice to see the real FF rankings.

Offline Rich Sanders

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Re: 2012 Class 7A/6A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2012, 11:27:49 am »
ah, go easy on my besty Leland. He got thrown into a tough situation because of my failure to communicate properly the last four or five months.

Back in the swing now. The rest of the class rankings coming up today.

As always, open for discussion.

spreadsheet going out to the folks on the "mailing list." hopefully it answers more questions than it creates. But, that's not always the case.

here goes ...

Offline Rich Sanders

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2012 Class 5A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2012, 11:30:58 am »
1   Pulaski Academy   102.7   Bruins would have been favored over 5A champs last year
2   Camden Fairview   101.2   James' gang is still vulnerable against teams that aren't on their level
3   Batesville   97.8   Pioneers may be the happiest team in state to see Greenwood get promoted
4   Alma   96.8   With the West weakened by departures, the old stand-by assumes favorite's role
5   Watson Chapel   95.5   Shelton welcomes back 15 starters from a team that lost two of its last three
6   Wynne   91.4   Hill has added another dimension to Yellowjackets' offense: the pass
7   Morrilton   89.4   Devil Dogs won four in a row last year before losing to Fairview by just a touchdown
8   Jacksonville   89.2   No matter what level they're at, Red Devils seem to find a way to play down
9   Greenbrier   89.2   Midnight struck with QB's departure and now we see if Panthers turn into pumpkins
10   Blytheville   88.2   New coach inherits eight starters back on defense and a 2-16 playoff record
11   Shiloh Christian   87.7   Malzahn's wish for Saints to join 5A-West finally comes true 15 years later
12   White Hall   85.6   Bulldogs overcame 0-3 start to sweep league and then stormed into 5A semifinals

Offline Rich Sanders

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2012 Class 4A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2012, 11:32:02 am »
1   Warren   94.4   Hembree has won 80 percent of his games and has 17 starters back this year
2   Nashville   91.9   After two years of preaching, Dawson returns to lift backsliding Scrappers
3   Dollarway   90.7   Cardinals' GPS set for a lot of conference trips to the north where there's less resistance
4   Stuttgart   90.4   If Ricebirds are as good as hoped, 4A-2 Conference will definitely be state's best
5   Malvern   90.1   Linebackers return from a good defensive squad as Leopards prepare for another run
6   Booneville   86.9   Beaten by Pottsville by four touchdowns and returning fewer starters than Apaches
7   Pottsville   86.8   Following tie to start season, Apaches won 11 in a row by 21 or more
8   Ashdown   86.7   Panthers lost four of their last five as the late coaching change hurt preparation
9   Prairie Grove   86.5   Dean of 4A-1 Conference coaches, Danny Abshier, has a team on the upswing
10   Ozark   86.4   Eight starters both ways will give Hillbillies a good chance to repeat as league champs
11   Valley View   86.1   Lost at Highland by 6 points last year and returns a like number of starters
12   Central Arkansas Christian   86.1   Played 5A football with a roster that was barely good enough for Class 4A in 2011

Offline Rich Sanders

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2012 Class 3A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2012, 11:33:18 am »
1   McGehee   93.7   Won Class 4A playoff game last year and leads an all-star list of five good 3A-6 teams
2   Harding Academy   89.6   Wildcats should have no trouble reaching double-digit victories for fifth straight season
3   Prescott   88.4   Curley Wolves were 13-0 when they stumbled at home against Barton
4   Fordyce   86.2   Beat Warren and Rison last year, but lost to Smackover and Camden Harmony Grove?
5   Fountain Lake   86.1   Cobras won eight in a row, as expected, after an unexpected 1-4 start
6   Glen Rose   85.6   Besides losing to Cobras by 27 last year, Beavers also go to Fountain Lake in mid-October
7   Earle   82.5   Bulldogs usually get "too much credit" but can't be denied as the 3A-3 favorite
8   Osceola   81.6   Third-year coach's record of 8-13 is the sticking point in rating Seminoles' potential
9   Paris   81.5   Eagles two losses were to eventual state champion and runner-up, both at home
10   Charleston   78.2   No team in the smaller classifications will have more new faces on the field this year
11   Camden Harmony Grove   77.4   Good enough to share league crown, but could finish as low as fifth this year
12   Rivercrest   77.3   Colts also hurting from the diploma giveaway, returning two offensive starters

Offline Rich Sanders

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Re: 2012 Class 7A/6A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2012, 11:34:47 am »
1   Junction City   83.5   Ended Magazine's two-year run, but stumbled in semifinals against eventual champs
2   Bearden   77.1   Difference in the wins and losses was Bearden's inability to put points on the board
3   Magnet Cove   77.6   Panthers are scheduled to dominate 2A-5 Conference again in 2012
4   Gurdon   75.9   Go-Devils have improved by five and four wins in last two campaigns
5   East Poinsett County   75.6   Warriors caught McCrory early and beat Bearden at home en route to 11-1 record
6   Rison   75.7   The six returning starters are the fewest Wildcats have ever had in the RPS era
7   Carlisle   75.1   Going into 2011 state-title game, Bison looked like the curse was going to end
8   Walnut Ridge   74.0   Bobcats may be good this year, but third-place finisher in 2A-3 won't be a great team
9   Hazen   71.9   As good as Hornets have been, they've won 10 wins just once since 1985
10   Mineral Springs   71.9   New coach walks into what appears to be a great situation but is it?
11   Salem   71.3   Greyhounds are loaded with talent following an eight-game jump in victories from 2010
12   Des Arc   70.7   Eagles have failed to reach the previous year's win total three straight seasons

Offline SouthpawSensation

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Re: 2012 Class 7A/6A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2012, 03:40:27 pm »
Good to see Rich "the wild man" Sanders back at the top of his game.
By the way, I've known Rich for years and have called him "the wild man" that long. He's still a good friend all that time! LOL!

Offline x14113

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Re: 2012 Class 4A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2012, 04:05:18 pm »
6   Booneville   86.9   Beaten by Pottsville by four touchdowns and returning fewer starters than Apaches

So why is it that the Bearcats are ranked one spot ahead?   ???

Come to think of it, this is the first ranking I've seen this year to include Booneville in the top 10. 

Offline Rich Sanders

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Re: 2012 Class 7A/6A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #11 on: July 29, 2012, 06:13:30 pm »
I needed to explain this better:
The comments don't necessarily explain "why" somebody is No. 6 or No. 7 or rated ahead of somebody else. I do like pointing out the contradictory "evidence" ... the facts don't always add up.
In Booneville's case, I've long leaned more heavily toward history and tradition and it sometimes goes against what we know about now and the recent past.

Hope that makes more sense. I'm out of practice.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2012, 09:15:30 pm by Rich Sanders »

Offline phdefense

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Re: 2012 Class 7A/6A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2012, 06:39:34 pm »
It's not why . I like pointing out the contradictory "evidence" ... the facts don't always add up.
In Booneville's case, I've long leaned more heavily toward history and tradition and it sometimes goes against what we know about now and the recent past.

Still, I like to point those things out.
Having seen RPS work I am pretty sure by the time the two teams actually play RPS will have self corrected and will have the Apaches as the favorite.

Offline Absolut

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Re: 2012 Class 7A/6A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2012, 08:00:14 pm »
Why such a big disparity in the ratings in the top 5 of class 5A and and the bottom five.

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Re: 2012 Class 7A/6A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2012, 01:59:03 am »
1   Warren   94.4   Hembree has won 80 percent of his games and has 17 starters back this year
2   Nashville   91.9   After two years of preaching, Dawson returns to lift backsliding Scrappers
3   Dollarway   90.7   Cardinals' GPS set for a lot of conference trips to the north where there's less resistance
4   Stuttgart   90.4   If Ricebirds are as good as hoped, 4A-2 Conference will definitely be state's best
5   Malvern   90.1   Linebackers return from a good defensive squad as Leopards prepare for another run
6   Booneville   86.9   Beaten by Pottsville by four touchdowns and returning fewer starters than Apaches
7   Pottsville   86.8   Following tie to start season, Apaches won 11 in a row by 21 or more
8   Ashdown   86.7   Panthers lost four of their last five as the late coaching change hurt preparation
9   Prairie Grove   86.5   Dean of 4A-1 Conference coaches, Danny Abshier, has a team on the upswing
10   Ozark   86.4   Eight starters both ways will give Hillbillies a good chance to repeat as league champs
11   Valley View   86.1   Lost at Highland by 6 points last year and returns a like number of starters
12   Central Arkansas Christian   86.1   Played 5A football with a roster that was barely good enough for Class 4A in 2011


 ;D Nice job Rich.

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Re: 2012 Class 7A/6A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2012, 09:54:22 am »
1   Junction City   83.5   Ended Magazine's two-year run, but stumbled in semifinals against eventual champs
2   Bearden   77.1   Difference in the wins and losses was Bearden's inability to put points on the board
3   Magnet Cove   77.6   Panthers are scheduled to dominate 2A-5 Conference again in 2012
4   Gurdon   75.9   Go-Devils have improved by five and four wins in last two campaigns
5   East Poinsett County   75.6   Warriors caught McCrory early and beat Bearden at home en route to 11-1 record
6   Rison   75.7   The six returning starters are the fewest Wildcats have ever had in the RPS era
7   Carlisle   75.1   Going into 2011 state-title game, Bison looked like the curse was going to end
8   Walnut Ridge   74.0   Bobcats may be good this year, but third-place finisher in 2A-3 won't be a great team
9   Hazen   71.9   As good as Hornets have been, they've won 10 wins just once since 1985
10   Mineral Springs   71.9   New coach walks into what appears to be a great situation but is it?
11   Salem   71.3   Greyhounds are loaded with talent following an eight-game jump in victories from 2010
12   Des Arc   70.7   Eagles have failed to reach the previous year's win total three straight seasons

That problem has been eliminated. Defense is the question mark for the 2012 Bears.

Offline Rich Sanders

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Re: 2012 Class 7A/6A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2012, 08:26:37 pm »
Why such a big disparity in the ratings in the top 5 of class 5A and and the bottom five.

I don't think it's such a big disparity.
3 points is barely a favorite, right around a 60-percent win rate for the favorite.
7 points is above 70-percent win rate.

Where RPS kicks tail is it identifies the huge favorites faster. The "kiss of death" has long been to be a 14-point underdog. In RPS terms, that's a nearly unbeatable favorite -- well over 95 percent win rate.

So the numbers are pretty close in reality.

Now, let me throw a little monkey wrench in the whole thing:
There are so many variables from year to year that the worst rankings of the season are ALWAYS the preseason rankings. Because of that and because I don't want a team missed so badly that they hand me two or three losses before we get out of September, I long ago (around 1985) instituted a "crunching" process to the preseason ratings. So the top-rated teams are actually penalized a set amount and the second-ranked team is penalized just a little less and so on to the middle of the rankings. When you're in the bottom half, the teams are elevated and the bottom-rated team gets a huge elevation. It is literally a crunching process that gives the lowest rated team a two-touchdown credit when compared to the top team.

There's no doubt there is a gap between the top five and the bottom five, but it's not a big deal. A real gap would be 7-8 points from one team to the next.

Hope that makes sense  8)

Offline B.G.

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Re: 2012 Class 7A/6A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #17 on: August 20, 2012, 08:55:45 pm »
Who is that ^^

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Re: 2012 Class 7A/6A Preseason rankings by RPS
« Reply #18 on: August 23, 2012, 11:19:04 am »
1   Junction City   83.5   Ended Magazine's two-year run, but stumbled in semifinals against eventual champs
2   Bearden   77.1   Difference in the wins and losses was Bearden's inability to put points on the board
3   Magnet Cove   77.6   Panthers are scheduled to dominate 2A-5 Conference again in 2012
4   Gurdon   75.9   Go-Devils have improved by five and four wins in last two campaigns
5   East Poinsett County   75.6   Warriors caught McCrory early and beat Bearden at home en route to 11-1 record
6   Rison   75.7   The six returning starters are the fewest Wildcats have ever had in the RPS era
7   Carlisle   75.1   Going into 2011 state-title game, Bison looked like the curse was going to end
8   Walnut Ridge   74.0   Bobcats may be good this year, but third-place finisher in 2A-3 won't be a great team
9   Hazen   71.9   As good as Hornets have been, they've won 10 wins just once since 1985
10   Mineral Springs   71.9   New coach walks into what appears to be a great situation but is it?
11   Salem   71.3   Greyhounds are loaded with talent following an eight-game jump in victories from 2010
12   Des Arc   70.7   Eagles have failed to reach the previous year's win total three straight seasons


Seeing you also have magnet cove this high, and Rison not in the top 3 makes me feel alot better about the top 15 ranking I submitted on the fan poll that I voted in...

 

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