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September 10, 2010, 11:43:38 AM

[Rich Sanders]

Class 2A
School      (Record, Finish)   Comments
 1. Bearden (14-1, 2A runner-up, 13 of 24 playoff victories have come in 4 years)
 – Cox has taken Bears to WMS twice in last three years, but has not won title.
2. Carlisle (8-4, 2A second round, 8 semifinal berths, 4 title games and 0 titles)
 – Bison should emerge from best conference in Class 2A as strong contender.
3. Des Arc (10-2, 2A quarters, 48 total victories in previous 5 campaigns)
 – Suffering from near-miss syndrome, Eagles return tons of experience in 2010.
4. Hazen (12-1, 2A quarters, 3 of top 4 teams would be first-time champions)
 – If Hornets don’t win key league tilts, they’ll be doing a lot of road work in playoffs.
5. Junction City (13-1, 2A champs, 33 of 37 playoff wins came from 2000-09)
 – Dragons will retool entire offense, replace 9 defenders and they’ll still be strong.
6. Mount Ida (4-5, no playoffs, 2 semifinal appearances and 1 title since 1989)
 – Blue-collar Lions have excellent work ethic and will be a force if talent develops.
7. Augusta (6-4, 2A qualifier, 7 playoff-opening losses in last 9 tries since 1992)
 – Returning starters give Red Devils chance to field one of their best teams in years.
8. Spring Hill (11-3, 2A semifinals, 28 victories in first 7 years of existence)
 – 18 returnees took program to new heights last year and 14 are back for an encore.
9. Danville (11-2, 2A quarters, Three 10-win years made 2000-09 best decade)
 – Little Johns will be hovering just outside Top 10 after annual loss to Dardanelle.
10. Parkers Chapel (8-3, 3A qualifier, coming off school’s first trip to playoffs)
 – Finishing third in mighty 2A-8 Conference is an automatic Top 10 ticket for Trojans.

[Scorpiux]

After this season we'll know for sure whether or not Bearden is the "Cleveland" of 2A football.

[cav2012]

carlisle and des arc above hazen.. :ooh come on

[pick_DA_EAGLES]

cav2012, geography 101 lesson of the day: look at a map, des arc is always "above" hazen.

[cav2012]

ok reasoning for carlisle.....

[pick_DA_EAGLES]

i have no reason for carlisle.

[cav2012]

their closer to little rock....it all makes sense now

[Rich Sanders]

They're all three close, as the rankings indicate. Five different sets of numbers are used to come up with that ranking. Here's how the three teams compare in four of those ratings:

"Debit Rating" - based on pure numbers with last year's average rating combined with this year's rating for the number of starters returning. Debit rank is in parentheses.

Carlisle   90.38 (2) - 17 starters returning
Des Arc    89.78 (3) - 15 starters
Hazen      87.53 (5) - 14 starters
========= ===========

Projected Rating based on historical values when teams had similar numbers to project where the team should be rated this year.

Carlisle 98.55 (1)
Des Arc  82.47 (6)
Hazen    78.07 (12)

========= ===========

Target Rating is much like Projected Rating except it measures the difference in improvement for each school in years that are historically similar to this one.

Carlisle 88.87 (5)
Des Arc  88.91 (3)
Hazen    85.65 (9)

========= ===========

Real rating is a traditional rating that measures where each team is expected to be based on their ratings over the past several seasons. Last season carries the most weight, the season before that carries a little less weight and so on ...

Carlisle 76.85 (7)
Des Arc  80.61 (3)
Hazen    78.79 (5)


The numbers don't get averaged together. They're each weighted differently and then each team has a MIN and MAX number that their final rating has to fall within. Basically, if a team has never started above 90 and their rating indicates 95, the rating will be brought back within an acceptable range.

In the end, these three teams are so close that they could finish in any order. I think the message of the rankings is really that this league is going to produce three contenders for the championship.

[The Infidel]

I can't argue with the science but I would have bet that Spring Hill and Parkers Chapel would have been ranked higher.

[Lord Sidious]

Impressive Mr.  Rich, I agree any of three are certainly capable. I kinda have a feeling it'll end up with DA or Carlisle winning the conference. Last year put hazen on the radar. They will be the HUNTED not the HUNTER this year. It will be interesting to see how they respond.

[pick_DA_EAGLES]

it should be 1 heck of a battle for the 6-2a title. By time the playoffs roll around they will all be tested and ready to make a run to the ROCK!

[cav2012]

<br />it should be 1 heck of a battle for the 6-2a title. By time the playoffs roll around they will all be tested and ready to make a run to the ROCK!<br />

i agree ..imo the winner of this conference wins state

[pick_DA_EAGLES]

getting to the "ROCK" is 1 thing, knowing how to win when you get there is another.

[Lord Sidious]

<br />it should be 1 heck of a battle for the 6-2a title. By time the playoffs roll around they will all be tested and ready to make a run to the ROCK!<br />

i agree ..imo the winner of this conference wins state
There are alot of good teams out there in 2a Bearden, JC, Magnet Cove will be tough, just to name a few. I wouldn't go boasting state titles yet.

[Coach Jones]

Thank you----MAGAZINE

[gatecrasher]

If Bearden's rebuilt offensive line gels, the Bears will win their first championship.

[paraloma]

It's odd to see Mount Ida even in the top 10.  They lost to Spring Hill 40-7, and barely made the playoffs.

[phdefense]

It's odd to see Mount Ida even in the top 10.  They lost to Spring Hill 40-7, and barely made the playoffs.

And apparently Spring Hill is the standard by which all things 2A should be measured? How many games did they win in 2008? Not the model of consistency are they?

[paraloma]

And apparently Spring Hill is the standard by which all things 2A should be measured?

No, but Spring Hill, as mentioned in the rankings, returns 14 starters.  JC is the standard.

How many games did they win in 2008?

One, which one more game than Mount Ida won in conference last year.

Not the model of consistency are they?

No, but they do have Rodrae.

[gatecrasher]

Mt Ida can win 2A-7.
Matter of fact, I believe they will. They work hard. Hard work pays off, plus they have quality returnees....

[bleudog]

It's odd to see Mount Ida even in the top 10.  They lost to Spring Hill 40-7, and barely made the playoffs.

How in the world can he rationalize putting Mt. Ida in the top 10 when they didn't even make the playoffs last year? Then he puts them ahead of Springhill, who by his own admission returns 14 starters which includes Rodrae Jones?
I have no love for Springhill, but even I can't do that. Mt. Ida may or may not make the playoffs, but I can't see any way in the world that they are among the best teams in 2A.
I would like to see why he has given them so much respect, besides the fact that they were good in the past. 2A programs are notorious for crashing hard after a good run. Mt. Ida has a lot of rebuilding to do before they should be mentioned in the same breath as Junction City and Bearden. (and this is coming from a 7-2A fan)

Hey Rich, besides work ethic, how about elaborating on Mt. Ida's strengths in your formula?

[gatecrasher]

Mt Ida has won a state championship lately...

How many does Spring Hill have? Huh?

I hear only crickets.....

[Rich Sanders]

Sure.

I think the work ethic is part of the culture at Mount Ida. It's a given when you go to school and play football there for Coach White.
And that's subjective reasoning that is reflected in the historical and traditional ratings.

Let's not forget that Mount Ida beat a superior team (probably more than just one superior team, too) on the way to a 15-0 record and a state title in 2007. And if we're going to throw out returning starters as a reason for Spring Hill, then it should be noted that Mount Ida has eight on both sides of the football.

I think people get too caught up in certain facts and focus on them too much. It's easy to zero in on a 40-7 loss at home to Spring Hill and say there's no way they should be ranked ahead of Spring Hill. (And Mount Ida did not make the playoffs last year.)

My perspective doesn't focus on any one thing so much. It's just about completely automated now and all I have to do is enter numbers. I go back and look over things that don't make sense and, this year, I offered up the rankings for people to give me some extra input.
These are the rankings we settled on and I'm perfectly fine with them.

Personally, I'm not sure Mount Ida is among the best teams in 2A. But they're not really "in the same breath" as Bearden and Junction City. There's a wide chasm between fourth and sixth. The top four teams, like JC last year, could all give the teams at the top of 3A a run (according to the numbers). Junction City is kind of the line between those top four and the rest of 2A. Mount Ida just happened to have the next highest number among a group of teams that are packed together pretty tightly to No. 13. I believe the 13th-ranked team would be favored at home over all seven teams in front of them and Spring Hill will be favored (if the numbers hold true) over Mount Ida on Oct. 8.

I like the insight that "2A programs are notorious for crashing hard after a good run," but wonder why that applies to Mount Ida (which we could say has already crashed and is back up and running again) and not Spring Hill for the argument's purpose. I mean, Spring Hill should be good and I've rated them well, but couldn't they just as easily crash and burn? The way I see Spring Hill, they're a bum ankle away from 5-6.

At the other end, I'm not at all convinced that Mount Ida can win its conference. Yet, the numbers say they should be regarded as the league favorite.
The numbers aren't always right by any means, but they give us a starting point. Heck, I've had Oak Grove overrated every year since McFadden was a senior. No matter how much I penalize them for failing, they always come back to the top. There are teams like that in 2A and 3A, too, but Mount Ida has seldom been a disappointment.
Because of that history, the program's tradition, solid coaching and excellent numbers, I don't have any problem putting Mount Ida in the Top 10.

It's up to them to stay there.

[brotherdew]

I understand that some programs are historically good. Heck I live in the shadow of the mighty Nashville Scrappers.
But after watching the 7-2A on a weekly basis I just don't see that many teams rebounding after such a horrible year unless there are special circumstances, such as injured player returning.
Mt. Ida has become kind of the Dallas Cowboys of the 7-2A, the team that everyone loves to hate. This because of the history you speak of, but I also remember when people felt the same way about Barton, but what has happened to them.
Now I'm not saying that Mt. Ida is going the way of Barton, I'm just saying that history can't always overcome a lack of size or talent or numbers.
I have a feeling that Mt. Ida will be back on top of their game soon. I just don't think it will be this soon.

[pick_DA_EAGLES]

i dont think mt. Ida will ever make it were barton was.

[HF]

I don't think anybody will ever dominate their classification like barton did back in the 80's...not even shiloh...


 

[CHSBISON77]

yup...Barton was a BEAST Late 80's early 90's we happen to catch them in the Rock round then 94?...lost 7-6...with those 7 points being more than HALF of the 13 points givin up all year including playoffs..

[brotherdew]

They may not have established a state wide legacy like Barton, but if I remember right, last year is the first year they didn't win the conference since entering the conference. They also went more than three years without losing a conference game. That is domination at the conference level.

But to get back to the point, I wasn't comparing their level of success to Barton. I was simply pointing out that if a team as mighty as Barton can fall so far, then it can happen to anybody.

Fortunately for Mt. Ida, and unfortunately for the rest of the conference, Mt. Ida is an isolated community with a love for football. The numbers are there and they will be back. I just don't believe it will be this year.

[Lord Sidious]

Until Bearden or JC loses to someone other than each other they are the teams to beat in 2A! I believe there are around 8 to 12 teams in 2A that have a chance to be really good this year. It's going to be a great season state wide!

[gatecrasher]

^^^^^^THIS

As long as Cox and Carpenter are the coaches of Bearden and Junction City, respectively, the rest of 2A may as well sit back, because most years these two are going to be at or near the top.

[Lord Sidious]

^^^^^^THIS

As long as Cox and Carpenter are the coaches of Bearden and Junction City, respectively, the rest of 2A may as well sit back, because most years these two are going to be at or near the top.
I agree they both have really good programs and will always be competitive, but they have also had a really good run of talent these last few years. There time will pass and others will rise to the level they are. It happened with Barton and will happen with JC and Bearden eventually. I personally have a feeling there are going to be a FEW teams that will challenge them both in 2010.

[gatecrasher]

It hasn't happened for Junction City for the last 11 years. I know they can't win the title every year, but if my count is right since 2000 they have made 9 trips to the semifinals, been to WMS 4 times, and won 3 championships. They have always had talent down there, and always will. I know because I lived in Union County for 30 years.

Bearden has been the best team in the state not to win a title since Mike Cox came aboard. Like the Dragons, they have elevated their program to the point to where they simply reload every year, regardless of who graduates. I think they get off the snide and win their first championship this season.

[bleudog]

It hasn't happened for Junction City for the last 11 years. I know they can't win the title every year, but if my count is right since 2000 they have made 9 trips to the semifinals, been to WMS 4 times, and won 3 championships. They have always had talent down there, and always will. I know because I lived in Union County for 30 years.

Bearden has been the best team in the state not to win a title since Mike Cox came aboard. Like the Dragons, they have elevated their program to the point to where they simply reload every year, regardless of who graduates. I think they get off the snide and win their first championship this season.

That would be eight final fours there gate.  Six of those were consecutive (2001-2006).  The other two were 2008 and 2009.  The 2007 team lost by two in the quarter finals to eventual state champ Mt. Ida.  There were also some finals-quality games from 1998 thru 2000, but the match ups were early in the playoffs thanks to the ridiculous AAA playoff format. 

And at some point, it will come to an end.  But it's been a fun ride.

[gatecrasher]

I think as long as David Carpenter is the head coach of the Junction City Dragons they will be state title contenders. It hasn't changed since the turn of the century.

[Scorpiux]

You can never underestimate David "The Wizard" Carpenter. You'll have to admit though... Mike Cox is on his heels.

[gatecrasher]

You can say the same thing about him too...

[bleudog]

It hasn't happened for Junction City for the last 11 years. I know they can't win the title every year, but if my count is right since 2000 they have made 9 trips to the semifinals, been to WMS 4 times, and won 3 championships. They have always had talent down there, and always will. I know because I lived in Union County for 30 years.

Bearden has been the best team in the state not to win a title since Mike Cox came aboard. Like the Dragons, they have elevated their program to the point to where they simply reload every year, regardless of who graduates. I think they get off the snide and win their first championship this season.

That would be eight final fours there gate.  Six of those were consecutive (2001-2006).  The other two were 2008 and 2009.  The 2007 team lost by two in the quarter finals to eventual state champ Mt. Ida.  There were also some finals-quality games from 1998 thru 2000, but the match ups were early in the playoffs thanks to the ridiculous AAA playoff format. 

And at some point, it will come to an end.  But it's been a fun ride.

Gate, I got to thinking that since you access FF from a phone, you might can't see the post signatures.  Here's mine:

'98 thru '09 Football Record:  134-21 (86.5%)
State Champion:  '03, '08, '09   
State Runner-up:  '06
State Semi-finalist:  '01, '02, '04, '05
State Quarter-finalist:  '99, '07
Second Round:  '98, '00
Not perfect, but not a bad twelve years.

[gatecrasher]

Thanks bleu....

[Scorpiux]

Dang! I forgot what I was gonna say.... 

[Scorpiux]

Ok... now I remember. Has anyone seen/heard from Richard Sanders? He seems to have disappeared. Do I need to call the police and make a missing person report?

[Rich Sanders]

Present.

Been workin' ...

[Scorpiux]

Present.

Been workin' ...

Ok. Now that you're here... what did I want? 

[cuz]

I can see why Junction was rated down in the middle this year, but do to past preformance and work ethic, as Rich put for the main reason for Mt Ida ranking, they should be higher. One of Coach Carpenter's main ingredients is none other but hard work. They may have lost everyone but tradition and talented players are there and they will suprise many. There's a lot of vultures waiting for there downfall like there was for Barton, but it won't happen as long as David Carpenter is coaching........

[gatecrasher]

They will be dangerous come November, as I have been attesting to all summer long.

A win over Rison next week and we can remove the "rebuilding" moniker from the Dragons. I'm gonna try to make it to Rison for that one....

[Lions84]

Good looking Top 10 Rich!

[rattlerfan24]

Thanks Rich.  Picking up right where u left off last year.lol

[Allen T]

Hay Rick- DANVILLE 35-DARDANELLE 28. So much for "Danville's annual loss. "Go Little Johns!!!!

[cav2012]

Hey guess that leads hazen to #2 ...your rankings are a joke

[Rich Sanders]

Hay Rick- DANVILLE 35-DARDANELLE 28. So much for "Danville's annual loss. "Go Little Johns!!!!

That was an awesome result. I'll wear the egg proudly.

I do wonder two things about this one: First, I know it's a rivalry game and Danville was already fired up. But do you think last week's news of the forfeits helped fire them up more?

And what's wrong with Dardanelle?

[Rich Sanders]

Hey guess that leads hazen to #2 ...your rankings are a joke

Thanks, man.
Send me yours and we'll just run those this year.