4-4A jugger not (part2)

[Lacerta agilis]

Dardanelle 5-1                @Waldron
Ozark        4-2                Dover
Booneville  4-2               Subiaco
Dover        4-2               @Ozark
Waldron     3-3               Dardanelle
Pottsville    3-3               West Fork

West Fork  1-5               Pottsville
Subiaco      0-6               @Booneville

Best Case Scenario                               Worst Case Scenario
Booneville   5-2                                          5-2
Dardanelle  6-1                                          5-2
Ozark         5-2                                          4-3
Dover         5-2                                          4-3
Waldron      4-3                                          3-4
Pottsville     4-3                                          4-3

[Gray lizard]

I think all but one of the top 6 are 3-2 after this week.

Got me

[Lacerta agilis]

You mean 3-2?

[OLDSCHOOL82]

I'll move this over here since there is a new thread.
Remaining 3 games for top 6 and my predictions. (OUT OF ORDER BUT ADJUSTED FROM LAST WEEKS POST)

Booneville
-@ Dardy, @ Westfork, Subi......3-0 in final 3.  GETTING STRONGER EACH WEEK.  HUGE GAME THIS WEEK.

Dover
-West fork, Waldron, @ Ozark.....3-0 in final 3. WALDRON AND OZARK COULD CAUSE THEM FITS.  DEPENDS ON IF THEY HAVE THROWN IN THE TOWEL.

Dardy
-Booneville, Ozark, @ Waldron.....2-1 in final 3.  LOSS TO BVL.

Ozark
-Pottsville, @ Dardy, Dover....0-3 in final 3.  TIED FOR 1ST AT THE MOMENT.  UNFORTUNATELY, NOW THEY HAVE THE HARD GAMES.

Waldron
-Subi, @ Dover, Dardy...... 1-2 in final 3. HOPE THEY CAN STIR UP SOME TROUBLE IN WEEK 9/10.

Pottsville
-@ Ozark, @Subi, Westfork...... 3-0 in final 3.  SMOOTH SAILING.  EVEN THOUGH SEVERAL HAVE THE HILLBILLIES PICKED.

And my predictions on finishing.

1. Booneville @ 6-1

T2. Dardy @ 5-2
T2. Dover @ 5-2
T2. Pottsville @ 5-2

Dardy: loss to Dover and Booneville. Beat Pottsville. Current pts = 36.  Dardy will come close to maxing out on pts week 9/10.
Dover: loss to Booneville and Pottsville. Beat Dardanelle. Current pts = 18,
Pottsville:  loss to Dardanelle and Waldron. Beat Dover. Current pts = 9.  Should get close to max pts in the next 3 weeks. 

5. Ozark @ 3-4 (tie breaker over Waldron)
6. Waldron @ 3-4
7. West Fork @ 1-6
8. Subi @ 0-7

[Lacerta agilis]

Could very well pan out with multiple teams ending in a tie for 2nd at 5-2. Better get those 13 points any time you can!

[OLDSCHOOL82]

And I always have found polls comical.  Hootens has Booneville at #11, Dardy @ #14, yet Dardy picked to win by 2.  They unintentionally contradict themselves.

[Lizard 47]

Dardy and Pottsville both win out and take #1 and #2 respectively.

[OLDSCHOOL82]

That scenario looks like this.

1. Dardy @ 6-1
2. Pottsville @ 5-2 (head to head over Booneville, Dover)
3. Booneville @ 5-2 (head to head over Dover)
4. Dover @ 5-2
5. Ozark @ 3-4 (head to head over Waldron)

Now, Ozark or Waldron or both could possibly completely put a wrinkle in both of those scenarios!!

[Sigmund Sauer]

And I always have found polls comical.  Hootens has Booneville at #11, Dardy @ #14, yet Dardy picked to win by 2.  They unintentionally contradict themselves.

They always give home team more points than they probably need to on picks.

[Gray lizard]

I think Dardanelle is the best team in the 4-4A.  I think the loss to Dover was just a nightmare for them and they are over it now.  They are the only team to put up several points on Charleston this year.  First game jitters for new coach and not prepared to defend the pass.  Defensive backs gave to much space and that killed them.  They have a offence that will score over 30 points and a defense that will allow less than 21 against Bonneville. That is why I would put the line at 9+ for Dardanelle.

Of course I could be totally wrong who knows, but the boys on the field will let us know Friday night. It should be a good game.

[nastynice]

No doubt Dardy is playing their best ball of the year so far. I was at the Charleston game and if y'all play like that, we'll beat you by 20.

[nastynice]

But who knows with our new spread O. We may start slow but by second half we should be blowin' and goin'!  We may blow this thing wide open. Speaking of wide open, I hope those tamales don't lock me wide open. I'd  hate to miss these 2 long, lanky speed teams running their track meet.

[Lizard 47]

Waldron is the only team you've beaten by more than 19 all year

[OLDSCHOOL82]

Correct lizard.  We haven't played the cupcakes yet like y'all.

[Lizard 47]

Lol, those are like the highest Olympic judges scores, we throw them out

[rattler33]

well dardy better get it done Friday night because its all bearcats the next 2 years.

[Lacerta agilis]

But who knows with our new spread O. We may start slow but by second half we should be blowin' and goin'!  We may blow this thing wide open. Speaking of wide open, I hope those tamales don't lock me wide open. I'd  hate to miss these 2 long, lanky speed teams running their track meet.

You can't get in on the tamale deal nastynice. That's an Oldschool deal only.

[Lizard 47]

I'm well aware, our succes in the past few years is from playing sophomores. I know that class is stacked for y'all. Wonder why other programs don't do that more, especially when they need to regroup

[nastynice]

Wasn't wanting in on the deal. Was planning on buying mine at the stand.
But it'd save you a lot of money to make that "All you can eat" bet with me instead of OS.

[nastynice]

I'm well aware, our succes in the past few years is from playing sophomores. I know that class is stacked for y'all. Wonder why other programs don't do that more, especially when they need to regroup

You lost me.

[Lizard 47]

Late response to rattler, sorry. Phone malfunction too, lol

[Lacerta agilis]

No doubt Dardy is playing their best ball of the year so far. I was at the Charleston game and if y'all play like that, we'll beat you by 20.

If we play like that, no doubt. But like Booneville, we were young and inexperienced starting the season. However, I doubt the part of beating us by 20. I don't think Booneville is 7 points stronger than C-town. Charlestown is pretty freaking good!

[WPWells]

Charleston also turned it over four times that game

[nastynice]

Charleston also turned it over four times that game

Thanks Fred, that was part of the point I was trying to make.

[OLDSCHOOL82]

Copied from 3A board.  Just gonna leave this here for all as I believe it will be used!!

From the AAA hand book

II TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE
A. In conferences with three teams that have identical conference
records:
1. If one team has beaten the other two teams, the winner is
the first qualifier for the play-offs.
2. If there is a perfect triangle (A beat B, B beat C, and C
beat A), the 13-point system is used to determine which
two teams are first considered for head-to-head competition.
In this system the two teams with the most points
are matched to see which team won in the regular season
conference game. The winner is the first qualifier for the
play-offs. The loser from this game is then matched with
the remaining team from the triangle and again head-to-head
competition is used to determine the second qualifier
for the play-offs. If a third qualifier is needed, it
shall be the remaining team in the triangle.
B. No team is eliminated by the point system. It is used to determine
which teams are considered first for head-to-head competition
from the regular season conference games.

[Gray lizard]

Thanks for that.  It may become very use full over the next few weeks.

[TurfToe]

I think tonight features some big games that should help clear things up for the final 2 games and playoff picture.

Booneville at Dardanelle and Pottsville at Ozark should be big games for each team. I think Dardanelle comes out on top.

Still up in the air about the Pottsville/Ozark game. Ozark has 3 tough games left but if they somehow manage to win 1 or 2 of those 3 it could put a wrinkle in most of the predictions. I think Ozark, Pottsville, and Dover should match up nicely. Just depends on who shows up to play and makes the fewest mistakes.

Hope it's a good game at Hillbilly Stadium, if not I will he home early getting ready to head to the deer woods in the morning.

[Cats73]

Brandon Ulmer is D1 material at QB. Spread formation tonight.

[MouthOfTheSouth215]

Does that say jugger not? I didn't know there was a such thing in the 4-4A lol

[Lacerta agilis]

It's a play on words with Juggernaut, but I wouldn't expect Scooter of the South to get it. Over your head.

[MouthOfTheSouth215]

It's a play on words with Juggernaut, but I wouldn't expect Scooter of the South to get it. Over your head.

I would like someone to explain to me who scooter is? Or is that just a name yall use for someone who knows football

[WPWells]

Good grief your hatred is so severe that you created a second account to hate some more? Kinda pathetic

[OLDSCHOOL82]

Good ole scooter.  Such a waste of oxygen.

[Lizard 47]

There may not be one but there's only two left with one loss now. Heck of a fight in dardanelle tonight, great game

[MouthOfTheSouth215]

Y'all really don't like scooter huh? lol "waste of oxygen" that's a little extreme don't ya think

[WPWells]

Nope

[MouthOfTheSouth215]

If you say so. But hey you guys enjoy your win tonight. Not to many more of those coming your way lol

[Lacerta agilis]

Fred Bird's team has a lot more wins coming. Book it

[OLDSCHOOL82]

Better thread title is "Cluster!"  Will update later on the scenarios now with the Ozark thumping out of nowhere!!

[1-Adam-12]

I was wondering the same thing, what on earth happened to Pottsville??

[beach bum]

Literally only one thing needs to happen for this whole thing to get blown up and have probably a 3 or 4 way tie with the 1 seed ending in 2 losses and have everyone pretty much finish 5-2 or 4-3....... Whoever wins the Ozark vs. Dardanelle game then goes on to lose week 10 we will see a 2 loss conference champion. Dover vs. Ozark and Waldron vs. Dardanelle the last week will be tightly contested so I could see it happening. One thing we know now is only one team has a shot at a 6-1 conference record with the Hillbillies and Lizards about to tussle.

[OLDSCHOOL82]

Remaining 2 games for top 6 and my predictions. (OUT OF ORDER BUT ADJUSTED FROM LAST WEEKS POST)

Booneville
-@ Westfork, Subi......2-0 in final 2. 

Dover
-Waldron, @ Ozark.....1-1 in final 2.

Dardy
-Ozark, @ Waldron.....2-0 in final 2.

Ozark
-@ Dardy, Dover....1-1 in final 2.

Waldron
-@ Dover, Dardy...... 0-2 in final.

Pottsville
-@Subi, Westfork...... 2-0 in final 2. 

And my predictions on finishing.

1. Dardanelle @ 6-1 (win out)

2. Booneville @ 5-2 (head to head over Ozark)

3. Ozark @ 5-2 (loss to dardy, beat dover)

4. Pottsville @ 4-3 (head to head over Dover) (win out)

5. Dover @ 4-3 ( beat waldorn, loss to Ozark)

6. Waldron @ 3-4 (loss to dover, loss to dardy)

7. West Fork @ 1-6
8. Subi @ 0-7

SCENARIO 2

1. Dardanelle

2. Booneville 5-2 (head to head over dover)

3. Dover 5-2 (win out)

4. Ozark 4-3 (0-2 in final 2, head to head over Pottsville)

5. Pottsville 4-3 (win out)

SCENARIO 3

1. Ozark wins out, 6-1
2. Dardanelle, 5-2 (head to head over Booneville)
3. Booneville, 5-2
4. Pottsville, 4-3 (head to head over Dover)
5. Dover, 4-3 or Waldron @ 4-3 with a head to head over Dover.

Should of wrote this out on paper first.  May be screwed up completely.  Then, there is also potential for Waldron to throw an extra kink in there!!

If you notice errors, let me know!

[beach bum]

I am going to predict an upset and Waldron beats Dover this week. I'll say a low scoring game of 21-20 and the Pirates will be the lone team out of the playoffs after they barely lose another one week 10. I am in the minority on that thought though I know.

[OLDSCHOOL82]

^ There are several realistic scenarios!

[3 Dollar]

I moved this over for you all's convenience!

Re: 4-4a jugger not

« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2016, 12:33:03 pm »




Predictions on finishing???

Could be Lizards, Bearcats, Pirates, Hillbillies, Apaches or Bulldogs???

I'm gonna go with the following:

1...Dardanelle 6-1
2...Booneville 5-2 (Tiebreaker over Ozark)
3...Ozark 5-2
4...Pottsville 4-3 (Tiebreaker over Dover)
5...Dover 4-3
6...Waldron 3-4
7...West Fork 1-6
8...Subiaco 0-7

The #1 & #2 could easily flip after Week #8.  The Booneville @ Dardanelle game should be for all the marbles!

[Lacerta agilis]

What a crazy season this has been.

[Lizard 47]

Absolutely! Bout had a heart attack! That was too good of a game, too close for comfort. Lizards clinch 3peat

[x14113]

Placing here Lacerta's post with mods for quick reference.

Dardanelle 5-1    (50)            @Waldron
Booneville  4-2   (46)           Subiaco
Ozark        4-2   (52)             Dover
Dover        4-2   (44)            @Ozark
Waldron     3-3   (27)            Dardanelle
Pottsville    3-3   (22)            West Fork
West Fork  1-5     (13)          Pottsville
Subiaco      0-6    (0)          @Booneville

If Dardy, Booneville, Ozark, and Pottsville win:
1) Dardanelle
2) Booneville
3) Ozark
4) Pottsville
5) Dover

The Bearcats would hold H2H over the Hillbillies, while the Apaches would hold H2H over the Pirates.


If Dardy, Booneville, Dover, and Pottsville win:
1) Dardanelle
2) Booneville
3) Dover
4) Ozark
5) Pottsville

The Bearcats would get H2H over the Pirates as well, and the Hillbillies would get H2H over the Apaches.


If Waldron, Booneville, Ozark, and Pottsville win:
1) Dardanelle
2) Booneville
3) Ozark
4) Dover/Pottsville
5) Waldron/Dover

This would trigger 3WTs for both 1st and 4th. The former is not a loop (the Lizards swept the other two), but the latter is. However, the Pirates have such a huge edge in TBP that the Apaches and Bulldogs would only be fighting for the privilege to be compared to them. Since this would favor the former, they would get the higher seed if their margin of victory was 6 points greater. Should the latter win by at least 8, however, they would clinch the 5th seed and keep Pottsville out.


If Dardy, Booneville, and WF win:
1) Dardanelle
2) Booneville
3) Dover @ Ozark Winner
4) Dover @ Ozark Loser
5) Waldron

The Bulldogs' H2H over the Apaches would kick in here.


If Dardy, Subiaco, Ozark, and Pottsville win:
1) Dardanelle
2) Ozark
3) Pottsville
4) Booneville
5) Dover

This would produce a 3WT for 3rd. The Apaches would stay home in Week 11 by virtue of sweeping the other two.


If Waldron, Booneville, and Dover win:
1) Booneville/Dover/Dardanelle
2) Dover/Dardanelle/Booneville
3)Dardanelle/Booneville/Dover
4) Ozark
5) Waldron

At the very least, there would be a looped 3WT at the top. Both the Pirates and Bearcats are close enough to the Lizards in TBP that they could both surpass Dardy in such in their wins, with the left column being the result. The middle column is the trickiest to pull off: That requires Dover to stay ahead of Booneville in TBP without the latter surpassing Dardy! Pottsville could force another 3WT for 4th with a win, but it would only be a claim of pride since they lost out against the pair they would join.


If Waldron, Booneville, Ozark, and WF win:
1) Dardanelle
2) Booneville
3) Ozark
4) Dover
5) Waldron

This basically illustrates that Lizards make the best allies for Apaches in Week 10.


If Dardy, Subiaco, and WF win:
1) Dardanelle
2) Dover @ Ozark Winner
3) Booneville
4) Dover @ Ozark Loser
5) Waldron

The Bearcats' H2Hs would keep them home in Week 11, but they would never live down that outcome...


If Dardy, Subiaco, Dover, and Pottsville win:
1) Dardanelle
2) Dover
3) Booneville
4) Ozark
5) Pottsville

The 3WT for 3rd may be a loop, but the Apaches are so far behind in TBP that they have no way to catch the other two, even in a blowout.


If Dardy, Subiaco, Dover, and WF win:
1) Dardanelle
2) Dover
3) Booneville
4) Ozark
5) Waldron

An Apache loss triggers the Bulldogs' H2H.


If Waldron, Subiaco, and Ozark win:
1) Dardanelle
2) Ozark
3) Booneville
4) Dover
5) Waldron

Pottsville could force a 4WT for 3rd, but again, it would only be for pride.


If Waldron, Subiaco, and Dover win:
1) Dover
2) Dardanelle
3) Booneville
4) Ozark
5) Waldron

This is the Pirates' simplest way to snatch the top seed.


Any I missed? I'm getting woozy...

[Lizard 47]

Really dude? Are you OCD? Lol

[Sigmund Sauer]

I love his posts, but thought the same thing, either he's being very respectful to Subi and WF or has some ocd.