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Previewing Class 4A in Cycle 6C (2016-2018)

Started by x14113, November 16, 2014, 10:22:58 am

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x14113

November 16, 2014, 10:22:58 am Last Edit: November 16, 2014, 11:18:40 am by x14113
Just one week into the playoffs, and folks are already buzzing over how the high school landscape will change in two years.

Thanks to the timing of required data, this landscape is all but set.

I've been crunching the numbers provided at the ADE Data website, and I have a pretty good idea as to where most schools will end up. The website is below, for those that wish to check out the numbers themselves.

https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/

The potential interplay involving Bentonville West and North Pulaski will be the biggest factor in any changes to Class 4A's landscape. Two schools on both cutoffs could find themselves on either side, depending on what commences.

Upper Cutoff: Morrilton (502), Huntsville (492)
Lower Cutoff: Booneville (297.67), Rivercrest (294.67)

Outside of that, all the potential changes are at the lower end. West Fork (303.33) has experienced a recent spike in numbers, all but locking them into 4A. Meanwhile, Clinton (284) has witnessed quite a dip in enrollment recently, dropping them down. Then there's Newport (276), whose time in 4A is finally numbered after a startlingly-noticable freefall finally catches up with them.

FootBallar21

How close was Mena looking to Move up ? They seem to have been close to the 4A cutoff the last several cycles!

x14113

Alas, Mena looks nowhere as close this time.

Its ADM stands at 430.33, and the numbers are trending down (456 > 433 > 402).

ATM, Berryville (464.67) and Huntsville (492) are most likely to make the jump, with this year's numbers topping 500 at both schools. Gravette's not too far behind, either.

The Coach

Quote from: x14113 on November 16, 2014, 11:26:58 am
Alas, Mena looks nowhere as close this time.

Its ADM stands at 430.33, and the numbers are trending down (456 > 433 > 402).

ATM, Berryville (464.67) and Huntsville (492) are most likely to make the jump, with this year's numbers topping 500 at both schools. Gravette's not too far behind, either.

Berryville might get rid of the football program if they have to go up. They can't win in one of the weakest 4a conferences.

FootBallar21

Quote from: The Coach on November 16, 2014, 11:31:03 am
Quote from: x14113 on November 16, 2014, 11:26:58 am
Alas, Mena looks nowhere as close this time.

Its ADM stands at 430.33, and the numbers are trending down (456 > 433 > 402).

ATM, Berryville (464.67) and Huntsville (492) are most likely to make the jump, with this year's numbers topping 500 at both schools. Gravette's not too far behind, either.

Berryville might get rid of the football program if they have to go up. They can't win in one of the weakest 4a conferences.

LOL,  that's what I was worried about if Mena had to move up,   though, this new coach seems to have the team moving in the right direction, 5 straight playoff appearances first time in school history and actually a weaker 5A conference might be easier than the 7-4A lol

Tomahawk


x14113

Here was my process:

1) I elected to see "enrollment by grade" within the SIS reports at the ADE Data site.

2) For each school, I added the enrollment of grades 9-11 (as the AAA uses) for the past three school years, including this one (since those are the numbers that next cycle will use). From there, I determined a 3-year mean for each school per AAA procedure.

3) I put all numbers on a spreadsheet, then rearranged the list by descending mean.

4)In an effort to determine placements, I added empty slots for schools (mostly private) whose numbers I could not determine.

beach bum

Quote from: x14113 on November 16, 2014, 03:20:34 pm
Here was my process:

1) I elected to see "enrollment by grade" within the SIS reports at the ADE Data site.

2) For each school, I added the enrollment of grades 9-11 (as the AAA uses) for the past three school years, including this one (since those are the numbers that next cycle will use). From there, I determined a 3-year mean for each school per AAA procedure.

3) I put all numbers on a spreadsheet, then rearranged the list by descending mean.

4)In an effort to determine placements, I added empty slots for schools (mostly private) whose numbers I could not determine.

You sir should be an accountant  ;D

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