Fred Bird's Probability Model - 7A

WPWells · November 09, 2016, 08:23:34 am

PROJECTIONS BEFORE ROUND 1

After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Quarterfinals:
North Little Rock: 1.0000
Springdale Har-Ber: 1.0000
Fayetteville: 1.0000
Fort Smith Northside: 1.0000
Bryant: 0.9750
Bentonville: 0.9750
Cabot: 0.9453
Conway: 0.8159
Rogers: 0.1841
Bentonville West: 0.0547
Springdale: <0.05
Little Rock Catholic: <0.05

To Make Semifinals:
Fayetteville: 0.9796
North Little Rock: 0.9029
Springdale Har-Ber: 0.7974
Bentonville: 0.5672
Fort Smith Northside: 0.4314
Bryant: 0.2026
Cabot: 0.0971
Conway: <0.05
Rogers: <0.05
Bentonville West: <0.05

To Make Finals:
Fayetteville: 0.7763
North Little Rock: 0.5681
Springdale Har-Ber: 0.3706
Bentonville: 0.1259
Fort Smith Northside: 0.0950
Bryant: <0.05
Cabot: <0.05

To Win State Championship:
Fayetteville: 0.5098
North Little Rock: 0.2365
Springdale Har-Ber: 0.1542
Bentonville: 0.0540
~~Fort Smith Northside: <0.05~~

Rob Van Winkle · November 09, 2016, 09:51:59 am

Good stuff man. Only upset I see in round 1 is Rogers over Conway.

Razorback Red · November 09, 2016, 09:04:00 pm

Interesting info, thanks for sharing.

Your model has NLR slightly better than Harber. That could be, but I'm going to have to see it on the field. I can't wait for that game (if it happens).

I'm also somewhat surprised that Bville is slightly favored in round 2 at NS. Would not shock me at all if Bville wins, but that will be a tough game.

I also like a healthy Cabot team more than your model. After last Fri, I would give them more than a 10% chance to beat NLR in round 2.

I'm ready for some playoff football!

WPWells · November 09, 2016, 10:09:31 pm

Quote from: Razorback Red on November 09, 2016, 09:04:00 pm
Interesting info, thanks for sharing.

Your model has NLR slightly better than Harber. That could be, but I'm going to have to see it on the field. I can't wait for that game (if it happens).

I'm also somewhat surprised that Bville is slightly favored in round 2 at NS. Would not shock me at all if Bville wins, but that will be a tough game.

I also like a healthy Cabot team more than your model. After last Fri, I would give them more than a 10% chance to beat NLR in round 2.

I'm ready for some playoff football!

Just a quick clarification: the Cabot having a 10% chance to make the semis is not simply their percentage chance to beat North Little Rock. The formula for each round is as follows:

P(Team A Makes Round K) = P(Team A Makes Round K-1)*(P(Potential Opponent 1 Makes Round K-1)*P(Team A Beats Potential Opponent 1)+...+P(Potential Opponent N Makes Round K-1)*P(Team A Beats Potential Opponent N))

WPWells · November 10, 2016, 10:15:41 pm

PROJECTIONS BEFORE QUARTERFINALS

After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Quarterfinals:
North Little Rock: 1.0000
Springdale Har-Ber: 1.0000
Fayetteville: 1.0000
Fort Smith Northside: 1.0000
Cabot: 1.0000
Bryant: 1.0000
Bentonville: 1.0000
Conway: 1.0000
Rogers: 0.0000
Springdale: 0.0000
Little Rock Catholic: 0.0000
Bentonville West: 0.0000

4/4 in the first round.

To Make Semifinals:
Fayetteville: 0.9750
North Little Rock: 0.8973
Springdale Har-Ber: 0.7922
Bentonville: 0.5063
Fort Smith Northside: 0.4937
Bryant: 0.2078
Cabot: 0.1027
~~Conway: <0.05~~

To Make Finals:
Fayetteville: 0.7724
North Little Rock: 0.5612
Springdale Har-Ber: 0.3637
Bentonville: 0.1129
Fort Smith Northside: 0.1098
Bryant: 0.0524
~~Cabot: <0.05~~

To Win State Championship:
Fayetteville: 0.5099
North Little Rock: 0.2386
Springdale Har-Ber: 0.1522
Bentonville: <0.05
Bryant: <0.05
~~Fort Smith Northside: <0.05~~

Billyo62 · November 11, 2016, 06:20:35 pm

Quote from: Fred Bird on November 10, 2016, 10:15:41 pm
PROJECTIONS BEFORE QUARTERFINAL

After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Quarterfinals:
North Little Rock: 1.0000
Springdale Har-Ber: 1.0000
Fayetteville: 1.0000
Fort Smith Northside: 1.0000
Cabot: 1.000
Bryant: 0.9750
Bentonville: 0.9750
Conway: 0.8159
Rogers: 0.1841
Springdale: <0.05
Little Rock Catholic: <0.05
Bentonville West: 0.00

To Make Semifinals:
Fayetteville: 0.9796
North Little Rock: 0.8973
Springdale Har-Ber: 0.7974
Bentonville: 0.5672
Fort Smith Northside: 0.4314
Bryant: 0.2026
Cabot: 0.1027
Conway: <0.05
Rogers: <0.05

To Make Finals:
Fayetteville: 0.7763
North Little Rock: 0.5681
Springdale Har-Ber: 0.3706
Bentonville: 0.1259
Fort Smith Northside: 0.0950
Bryant: <0.05
Cabot: <0.05

To Win State Championship:
Fayetteville: 0.5098
North Little Rock: 0.2365
Springdale Har-Ber: 0.1542
Bentonville: 0.0540
~~Fort Smith Northside: <0.05~~

I just saw this . I'm a Big fan of number crunching as most old posters on here will attest, I love what you've done. At this time I have no basis for an argument on your data in any way, good bad or bewildered. Pretty cool stuff to digest I must say.

Billyo62- Always a Tiger Fan.

WPWells · November 11, 2016, 07:17:33 pm

Thanks! I had fun putting it together. It was a nice challenge in excel

WPWells · November 11, 2016, 11:29:22 pm

Updated.

WPWells · November 18, 2016, 11:15:03 pm

PROJECTIONS BEFORE FINALS

After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Quarterfinals:
North Little Rock: 1.0000
Springdale Har-Ber: 1.0000
Fayetteville: 1.0000
Fort Smith Northside: 1.0000
Cabot: 1.0000
Bryant: 1.0000
Bentonville: 1.0000
Conway: 1.0000
Rogers: 0.0000
Springdale: 0.0000
Little Rock Catholic: 0.0000
Bentonville West: 0.0000

4/4 in the first round.

To Make Semifinals:
Fayetteville: 1.0000
North Little Rock: 1.0000
~~Springdale Har-Ber: 0.0000~~
Bentonville: 1.0000
~~Fort Smith Northside: 0.0000~~
Bryant: 1.0000
~~Cabot: 0.0000~~
~~Conway: 0.0000~~

To Make Finals:
Fayetteville: 0.7922
North Little Rock: 0.7922
Bentonville: 0.2078
Bryant: 0.2078

To Win State Championship:
Fayetteville: 0.5358
North Little Rock: 0.3219
Bentonville: 0.0965
~~Bryant: <0.05~~

Razorback Red · November 19, 2016, 08:03:16 am

Thanks Fred Bird for continuing to update. I have enjoyed reading the updates every week.

I agree that Fville and NLR are favored, but I'm not as confident as your model. I would go more 60/40%.

History tells us that the best overall team doesn't win the FHS/BHS game. They play twice a year almost every season and it is a rivalry game where anything can happen.

The way Bryant played last night and coming off the beat down NLR put on them earlier in the season, they will be ready for revenge.

WPWells · November 27, 2016, 03:35:18 pm

PROJECTIONS BEFORE SEMIFINALS

After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Quarterfinals:
North Little Rock: 1.0000
Springdale Har-Ber: 1.0000
Fayetteville: 1.0000
Fort Smith Northside: 1.0000
Cabot: 1.0000
Bryant: 1.0000
Bentonville: 1.0000
Conway: 1.0000
Rogers: 0.0000
Springdale: 0.0000
Little Rock Catholic: 0.0000
Bentonville West: 0.0000

4/4 in the first round.

To Make Semifinals:
Fayetteville: 1.0000
North Little Rock: 1.0000
~~Springdale Har-Ber: 0.0000~~
Bentonville: 1.0000
~~Fort Smith Northside: 0.0000~~
Bryant: 1.0000
~~Cabot: 0.0000~~
~~Conway: 0.0000~~

To Make Finals:
Fayetteville: 1.0000
North Little Rock: 1.0000
Bentonville: 0.0000
Bryant: 0.0000

To Win State Championship:
Fayetteville: 0.6398
North Little Rock: 0.3602

SCORE PROJECTION
Fayetteville 34
North Little Rock 31