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Author Topic: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle  (Read 11720 times)

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Offline GuvHog

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #50 on: March 26, 2017, 12:57:06 pm »
It's my understanding that Pulaski Academy has requested to be moved up to 6A and will do so in the next cycle. That would move Greenwood back to 5A.

This would put Greenwood back in the 5A West and Vilonia would then move to the 5A Central in PA's place.

5A CENTRAL
Maumelle
White Hall
Vilonia
LR Christian
LR Parkview
Beebe
LR McClellen
J.A. Fair

5A WEST
Huntsville
Farmington
Alma
Harrison
Clarksville
Morrilton
Greenbrier
Greenwood

5A EAST
Batesville
Blytheville
Wynne
Forrest City
Nettleton
Valley View
Green County Tech
Paragould

5A SOUTH
Texarkana
Watson Chapel
Hot Springs
H.S. Lakeside
Magnolia
De Queen
Camden fairview
Hope
« Last Edit: March 29, 2017, 03:07:46 pm by GuvHog »

Offline ricepig

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #51 on: March 30, 2017, 10:15:35 am »
It's my understanding that Pulaski Academy has requested to be moved up to 6A and will do so in the next cycle. That would move Greenwood back to 5A.

This would put Greenwood back in the 5A West and Vilonia would then move to the 5A Central in PA's place.

5A CENTRAL
Maumelle
White Hall
Vilonia
LR Christian
LR Parkview
Beebe
LR McClellen
J.A. Fair

5A WEST
Huntsville
Farmington
Alma
Harrison
Clarksville
Morrilton
Greenbrier
Greenwood

5A EAST
Batesville
Blytheville
Wynne
Forrest City
Nettleton
Valley View
Green County Tech
Paragould

5A SOUTH
Texarkana
Watson Chapel
Hot Springs
H.S. Lakeside
Magnolia
De Queen
Camden fairview
Hope

I believe Greenwood would have to agree to the move down, so it's not a certainty. Also, I've not read anything on PA wanting to move up two classes.

Offline GuvHog

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #52 on: March 30, 2017, 01:59:50 pm »
I believe Greenwood would have to agree to the move down, so it's not a certainty. Also, I've not read anything on PA wanting to move up two classes.

PA would only be moving up one class. They have been in 5A for quite some time now. Greenwood is the smallest 6A school so unless the school above them agrees to move down, Greenwood would have no choice BUT to move down if the AAA grants PA's request to move to 6A.

Offline sevenof400

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #53 on: March 30, 2017, 02:42:59 pm »
PA would only be moving up one class. They have been in 5A for quite some time now. Greenwood is the smallest 6A school so unless the school above them agrees to move down, Greenwood would have no choice BUT to move down if the AAA grants PA's request to move to 6A.

I think RicePig is correct -both schools must agree to a move like this - I don't think one can be forced to move down.
However, it is possible a school other than Greenwood might agree to move down.

Offline Grizzlyfan

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #54 on: March 30, 2017, 03:48:48 pm »
PA would only be moving up one class. They have been in 5A for quite some time now. Greenwood is the smallest 6A school so unless the school above them agrees to move down, Greenwood would have no choice BUT to move down if the AAA grants PA's request to move to 6A.
If PA petitions to move up why can't Greenwood petition to stay in 6A? 

Online HorseFeathers

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #55 on: March 30, 2017, 04:51:53 pm »
I think RicePig is correct -both schools must agree to a move like this - I don't think one can be forced to move down.
However, it is possible a school other than Greenwood might agree to move down.

I think this issue came up both times Shiloh Christian petitioned to play up...First to 4a then up to 5a

Offline ricepig

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #56 on: March 30, 2017, 10:31:28 pm »
I think RicePig is correct -both schools must agree to a move like this - I don't think one can be forced to move down.
However, it is possible a school other than Greenwood might agree to move down.

Yep, just like when WM and Russellville switched classes due to travel for a few cycles. One has to agree to move down in order for one to move in. I figure this thread will soon be Guv'd, I thought it would be informative, but it's soon to hit the crapper.

Offline GuvHog

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #57 on: April 01, 2017, 02:46:00 pm »
Yep, just like when WM and Russellville switched classes due to travel for a few cycles. One has to agree to move down in order for one to move in. I figure this thread will soon be Guv'd, I thought it would be informative, but it's soon to hit the crapper.

Then how do you explain Huntsville's situation?? They do not want to move back up to 5A but it looks like they will have no choice.

Offline ricepig

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #58 on: April 01, 2017, 03:10:10 pm »
Then how do you explain Huntsville's situation?? They do not want to move back up to 5A but it looks like they will have no choice.

Call the AAA and get your answer, I refuse to try and explain to you how it's done, it's really simple to understand.

Offline GuvHog

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #59 on: April 01, 2017, 03:22:06 pm »
Call the AAA and get your answer, I refuse to try and explain to you how it's done, it's really simple to understand.

I'm not meaning to be a smart-Aleck about it, I truly want to know how they do it. How often does a private school request to move up in classification get turned down?? I know Shiloh Christian moved up to 5A for a couple of years then quickly jumped back to 4A.

Offline sevenof400

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #60 on: April 01, 2017, 03:40:51 pm »
Then how do you explain Huntsville's situation?? They do not want to move back up to 5A but it looks like they will have no choice.

If the numbers put a school in a classification, that's where they fall.  Knowing a bit about Huntsville, I agree they are happier in 4A than 5A because of the lessened travel demands but if the 3 year student count numbers put Huntsville in 5A, that's where they will be. 

Offline sevenof400

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #61 on: April 01, 2017, 03:42:50 pm »
I'm not meaning to be a smart-Aleck about it, I truly want to know how they do it. How often does a private school request to move up in classification get turned down?? I know Shiloh Christian moved up to 5A for a couple of years then quickly jumped back to 4A.

In this case, Shiloh's numbers put them in the 4A but the school opted to play up to 5A for a cycle or two.  After a bit of that experience, Shiloh preferred to stay 4A which was where the classification process put them. 

Offline Rulesman

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #62 on: April 01, 2017, 05:04:48 pm »
Somewhat off topic, but it appears to me the private schools can control the bottom of the classification if they make the decision to move up or down. One day that will come back to bite them. I'm really surprised the publics let it happen.

Online HorseFeathers

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #63 on: April 01, 2017, 05:16:15 pm »
Somewhat off topic, but it appears to me the private schools can control the bottom of the classification if they make the decision to move up or down. One day that will come back to bite them. I'm really surprised the publics let it happen.

I would say its easier to find a monticello or fountain lake to move down a class rather than find a Prairie grove or Nashville to move up a class to allow you to go down....

Offline ricepig

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #64 on: April 01, 2017, 05:31:54 pm »
Somewhat off topic, but it appears to me the private schools can control the bottom of the classification if they make the decision to move up or down. One day that will come back to bite them. I'm really surprised the publics let it happen.

They don't get the option to move down. They are required to play up one classification, and can request to move up, if they can find a school willing to drop down in classification.

Offline XFalkonz

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #65 on: April 03, 2017, 10:55:42 am »
Any idea when the official numbers come out

Offline ricepig

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #66 on: April 03, 2017, 11:11:47 am »
Any idea when the official numbers come out

Looks like it was April 30, 2015 last time.


http://www.fearlessfriday.com/yabbse/index.php?topic=141664.0

Offline BigRoll

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #67 on: April 03, 2017, 03:23:47 pm »
Looks like it was April 30, 2015 last time.


http://www.fearlessfriday.com/yabbse/index.php?topic=141664.0

The pdf shows April 27, but who knows when it was actually uploaded to the website.

Offline Complete Biased PoV

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #68 on: April 17, 2017, 03:07:32 pm »
I think this issue came up both times Shiloh Christian petitioned to play up...First to 4a then up to 5a

There was no petition process until after PA tried to stay in 5A for the 2010-2012 cycle.  The petition was implemented for the 2012-2014 cycle, where Shiloh used it to go up to 5A.  I highly doubt PA has petitioned to move up to 6A, because the AAA would not allow them to move up football only.

Offline andydavis1234

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #69 on: April 18, 2017, 08:50:24 am »
How's it going to affect subiaco?
About 40 of our 190 students are from the Fort Smith area, but I've heard that we do not foresee the Fort Smith Catholic School putting a significant hit on enrollment, so I don't see Subi moving classifications in this cycle.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2017, 08:54:01 am by andydavis1234 »

Offline GuvHog

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #70 on: April 18, 2017, 11:38:40 am »
There was no petition process until after PA tried to stay in 5A for the 2010-2012 cycle.  The petition was implemented for the 2012-2014 cycle, where Shiloh used it to go up to 5A.  I highly doubt PA has petitioned to move up to 6A, because the AAA would not allow them to move up football only.

It's my understanding that PA has indeed petitioned to move up to 6A for the 2018-2020 cycle and it has been granted. Greenwood will drop back to 5A.

Offline arthurhawgerelli

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #71 on: April 18, 2017, 03:18:32 pm »
It's my understanding that PA has indeed petitioned to move up to 6A for the 2018-2020 cycle and it has been granted. Greenwood will drop back to 5A.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but usually the petitioning to move happens after the numbers are released.  The private schools now have a representative on the Board of Directors, so maybe it was discussed, but per usual, the AAA releases the numbers and that is the first time the schools see the actual numbers. 

Offline GuvHog

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #72 on: April 20, 2017, 04:12:49 pm »
I'm not saying you're wrong, but usually the petitioning to move happens after the numbers are released.  The private schools now have a representative on the Board of Directors, so maybe it was discussed, but per usual, the AAA releases the numbers and that is the first time the schools see the actual numbers. 

Understood. I could be misinformed, I'll admit that so I appreciate the information.

Offline CoachTaylorPA

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #73 on: April 28, 2017, 10:30:12 pm »
 No petition has been filed for football. Also for those wondering the following is the process for classification.  AAA will release the numbers.  Activity districts meet and vote on presented proposals on classification and other topics.  The proposals must receive enough votes to be on the docket in August.  The AAA board will make recommendations on the proposals that receive enough votes in their activity districts of no position , do or don't pass.  In August the schools vote on the proposals that made it through the activity districts.  Note membership will likely vote with AAA recommendation. Obviously proposals to pass will need a majority or percentage to pass. Therefore it will be August before anyone knows the classification set up for all sports with 100% certainty. Next year will be blended conference.  Also from what i hear Greeenwood will no longer be the smallest 6A school. 
« Last Edit: April 28, 2017, 10:46:01 pm by CoachTaylorPA »

Offline GuvHog

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #74 on: April 29, 2017, 08:26:04 am »
No petition has been filed for football. Also for those wondering the following is the process for classification.  AAA will release the numbers.  Activity districts meet and vote on presented proposals on classification and other topics.  The proposals must receive enough votes to be on the docket in August.  The AAA board will make recommendations on the proposals that receive enough votes in their activity districts of no position , do or don't pass.  In August the schools vote on the proposals that made it through the activity districts.  Note membership will likely vote with AAA recommendation. Obviously proposals to pass will need a majority or percentage to pass. Therefore it will be August before anyone knows the classification set up for all sports with 100% certainty. Next year will be blended conference.  Also from what i hear Greeenwood will no longer be the smallest 6A school. 

I don't believe the Conferences will be blended for football but they will for all other sports.

Offline CoachTaylorPA

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #75 on: April 29, 2017, 09:27:49 pm »
That is my understanding at this point as well.

Offline XFalkonz

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #76 on: May 02, 2017, 02:00:30 pm »
Any truth to the rumor that numbers aren't coming out until June?

Offline Lions84

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #77 on: May 02, 2017, 02:12:35 pm »
It will be interesting to see how this all plays out !

Offline SUGARTOWN

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #78 on: May 02, 2017, 04:01:16 pm »

Online Almatrackster

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #79 on: May 03, 2017, 06:08:09 am »
Time to see how these numbers compared!

7A hits and misses
Well right out of the gate, the top three schools were predicted correctly as in they were predicted to be top 3 and they all were, but the order and numbers were not predicted correctly. Not too big of a miss, but a miss none the less. Not sure what I missed on Cabot, but it's very tough to use all those feeder junior schools in Springdale correctly, so there was some probably miscalculations there.

Schools 3 for 6 were hit right on the nose. Bentonville at 7 is in the right spot, just missed the number by .17. I actually think AAA will only use .000, .67, and .33, so they probably just rounded up. Not really a miss.

Missed North Little Rock's numbers by 30, which is quite a bit. Not sure what I miscalculated there, but they are in the right spot.

Little Rock Central was right on the nose at number 9.

After that, I missed quite a bit on numbers and places of schools. My calculations for Rogers and Rogers Heritage was way off. Like 200 students off. I had Rogers at 13, but they were really number 10.

I also missed on Southside and Northside's numbers.

So Southside, Northside, Rogers, and Heritage all had some pretty big miscalculations. There could be a few reasons for this, which I'll get to in a moment.

Bentonville West was hardly a miss as far as numbers. Same deal as Bentonville pretty much.

Van Buren was hit right on the nose and Catholic/St. Mary's went up by 19, but that's not a miscalculation. I have no way of predicting private schools ADM.

How I feel about the predictions for 7A compared to actual numbers
Not great honestly. Yeah all the schools were correctly predicted into the classification, but that is pretty easy to do in the stable 7A. Numbers were very far off sometimes. Felt good about some of it, though. Hit some of the schools right on the nose.

What went wrong in miscalculations?
7A schools are different beasts in prediciting ADMS than small schools. It's not like there's a school named "Springdale Junior High" You have George, Southwest, etc. and you have to know what those junior high schools feed into. I'm pretty sure the miscalculations for these 7A schools came from the 9th grade calculations and their junior highs.

Online Almatrackster

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #80 on: May 03, 2017, 06:14:14 am »
6A hits and misses
Jonesboro was hit right on the money. Thanks to x1 for pointing out where I needed to find the extra numbers for Jonesboro.

West Memphis is in the right spot, but missed their ADM by about 20.

Benton is a .33 miss. Nothing major.

Russellville all the way down to Greenwood was hit right on the nose.

How I feel about the predictions for 6A compared to actual numbers
Feel really good about it. Basically hit all the schools on the nose. West Memphis discrepancy is hard to explain, not sure where that came from. Also feel good about getting the Sylvan Hills huge jump right. I thought I might have messed up my calculations with such a huge jump, but I guess SH is growing that much.

What went wrong in miscalculations?
Probably just messed up with West Memphis junior high or missed some other school in their district I didn't know about.

Offline GuvHog

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #81 on: May 03, 2017, 09:52:44 am »
So if the 5A doesn't merge with the 6A in the next cycle and PA stays put in the 5A Central, White Hall will likely move to the 5A Central in Sylvan Hill's spot, Texarkana will take White Hall's place in the 5A South, Huntsville will move up to the 5A West with either Maumelle or Vilonia moving to the 5A Central.

If however PA does move up to 6A, That would likely put Greenwood in the 5A West which would likely mean both Maumelle and Vilonia would move to the 5A Central.


Offline ricepig

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #82 on: May 03, 2017, 10:21:43 am »
So if the 5A doesn't merge with the 6A in the next cycle and PA stays put in the 5A Central, White Hall will likely move to the 5A Central in Sylvan Hill's spot, Texarkana will take White Hall's place in the 5A South, Huntsville will move up to the 5A West with either Maumelle or Vilonia moving to the 5A Central.

If however PA does move up to 6A, That would likely put Greenwood in the 5A West which would likely mean both Maumelle and Vilonia would move to the 5A Central.

The merging will be for every sport but football, and PA isn't moving up two classes.

Offline GuvHog

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #83 on: May 03, 2017, 11:47:12 am »
The merging will be for every sport but football, and PA isn't moving up two classes.

Moving from 5A to 6A would be only one class, not two. PA has been playing in the 5A Central for several years now and there has been talk of them petitioning to move up to 6A in football.

I had forgotten that the merging wouldn't be for football.

Online Almatrackster

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #84 on: May 03, 2017, 01:13:04 pm »
5A Hits and Misses
Well the good thing was that Texarkana was correctly predicted to drop down to 5A and be the largest 5A school, but I missed on numbers by quite a few. There is a school in Texarkana that I think I counted towards their ADM, but perhaps I shouldn't have and that may be the discrepancy.

From Parkview-Alma/Lakeside, the numbers were spot on. The next miss comes with Hot Springs. Hot Springs has quite a few schools in town and its tough to tell which ones count towards their ADM (such as the School for Math and Science). Perhaps this accounts for the discrepancy. It only missed them by a few spots, but they are still in 5A.

Vilonia was spot on, I missed Beebe's ADM average by 4, not sure what accounted for that, maybe just a miscalculation.

After that, 5A was spot on all the way down to the last public school, Blytheville. Of course, the private numbers are off because there is no accurate way to predict them. LRC's ADM went down by 5 while PA's rose by 9.

How I feel about the predictions for 5A compared to actual numbers
Not bad. Definitely some misses like Texarkana and Hot Springs's numbers that I'll have to account for. Beebe's numbers miss is probably something small, not too worried about it.

I was happy the numbers predicted all the schools in the classification, especially Texarkana dropping down.
« Last Edit: September 04, 2017, 05:07:11 pm by Almatrackster »

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #85 on: May 03, 2017, 01:24:41 pm »
4A Hits and Misses
From Mills all the way down to Arkadelphia, the numbers are spot on. Bauxite's ADM is off by 10. Not sure what that is about.

After that 4A is spot on down to when you get to the private schools where you find a classification change that I did not predict (to be fair, it was a private school who made it happen and I can't predict their ADM)

Baptist Prep's ADM dropped them down to 3A, which in turn made Haskell Harmony Grove jump up to the smallest public school in 4A. HHG's numbers were correctly predicted, I just couldn't account for Baptist Prep's drop in enrollment.

How I feel about the predictions for 4A compared to actual numbers
Honestly, even though this was the first classification miss, I feel good about this class. Most of the class was predicted spot on with numbers and place. Even Pea Ridge, where you had to add their Manufacturing and Business school, was on the nose. 

Can't feel too bad about not knowing about a private school drop. Poor HHG.

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #86 on: May 03, 2017, 01:52:29 pm »
3A Hits and Misses
Everything is correctly predicted until I had Jacksonville Lighthouse with a slightly higher ADM than they actually have. With this being a charter school who's enrollment has made them go from 1A to 3A in such a short amount of time, their volatile nature makes the discrepancy make sense.

Hey I didn't miss Junction City by as much as I thought I would. Since JC moved up last cycle to 3A and it has to do with a Louisiana school (in short), I can't find the information to predict JC's exact ADM. So I just added a number that looked right and was only off by 1.33! Here's to guessing!

I missed Episcopal and Harding's numbers obviously because they were private schools. And of course, another classification miss because Baptist Prep moved down and bumped up HHG. But that was covered in the last post.

How I feel about the predictions for 3A compared to actual numbers
I feel really good about this classification. Smackover+Norphlet's ADM was a bit confusing and getting that on the nose was satisfying. This is also the first classification where you have a lot of non football schools and you have to think about which ones fall within the range of the 48 football schools and that can make for some interesting thinking and it's good to see that I counted them correctly. All in all, Baptist Prep moving down wasn't going to be predicted, so I feel very good.

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #87 on: May 03, 2017, 02:13:26 pm »
1A/2A Hits and Misses
No misses until I got down and had predicted Haas Hall Bentonville for about 9 more than their actual ADM. Another school who's enrollment is rapidly rising and being volatile which probably explains that discrepancy.

A miss that cost these predictions to miss a classification for a school. The ADM I predicted for Maumelle Charter was 6 off their actual ADM and that 6 was enough to keep them in 1A. The margin of students is pretty tight at the bottom of 2A. Seems I have a charter school discrepancy and I'm not sure what it is.

Since I incorrectly predicted Maumelle Charter's ADM, Bearden was a miss also. I predicted them to be 1A (except in football of course), but it seems they will be the smallest public 2A school.

Everything seems to be a hit.

All in all, not too bad once you compare.

Online HorseFeathers

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #88 on: May 03, 2017, 02:17:39 pm »
Considering the leg work you have to do to hunt the numbers and schools down....I'd say you did an excellent job with the predictions

Offline ricepig

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #89 on: May 03, 2017, 03:05:18 pm »
Moving from 5A to 6A would be only one class, not two. PA has been playing in the 5A Central for several years now and there has been talk of them petitioning to move up to 6A in football.

I had forgotten that the merging wouldn't be for football.

Geez, Guv, they are 3A in student count, the private school makes them move up to 4A, they've petitioned to move to 5A. They would have to petition to move up "another" class to go to 6A. They have an enrollment count of 310.67, that puts them in 3A.

Offline GuvHog

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #90 on: May 03, 2017, 03:18:00 pm »
Geez, Guv, they are 3A in student count, the private school makes them move up to 4A, they've petitioned to move to 5A. They would have to petition to move up "another" class to go to 6A. They have an enrollment count of 310.67, that puts them in 3A.

True but they have been playing in the 5A Central for years and have been dominant so PA petitioning to move to 6A would not be shocking. Shiloh Christian played in the 5A West for a couple of years and I believe they are a smaller school than PA.

Offline ricepig

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #91 on: May 03, 2017, 03:25:00 pm »
True but they have been playing in the 5A Central for years and have been dominant so PA petitioning to move to 6A would not be shocking. Shiloh Christian played in the 5A West for a couple of years and I believe they are a smaller school than PA.

Shiloh was in the 4A class and petitioned to move up one class, the same as PA has been doing, moving up one class. Should they move up to 6A, that would be two classes.

Offline B.G.

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #92 on: May 03, 2017, 03:48:04 pm »

Online bleudog

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Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #93 on: May 03, 2017, 07:00:27 pm »
3A Hits and Misses
Everything is correctly predicted until I had Jacksonville Lighthouse with a slightly higher ADM than they actually have. With this being a charter school who's enrollment has made them go from 1A to 3A in such a short amount of time, their volatile nature makes the discrepancy make sense.

Hey I didn't miss Junction City by as much as I thought I would. Since JC moved up last cycle to 3A and it has to do with a Louisiana school (in short), I can't find the information to predict JC's exact ADM. So I just added a number that looked right and was only off by 1.33! Here's to guessing!

I missed Episcopal and Harding's numbers obviously because they were private schools. And of course, another classification miss because Baptist Prep moved down and bumped up HHG. But that was covered in the last post.

How I feel about the predictions for 3A compared to actual numbers
I feel really good about this classification. Smackover+Norphlet's ADM was a bit confusing and getting that on the nose was satisfying. This is also the first classification where you have a lot of non football schools and you have to think about which ones fall within the range of the 48 football schools and that can make for some interesting thinking and it's good to see that I counted them correctly. All in all, Baptist Prep moving down wasn't going to be predicted, so I feel very good.

JC's full student count is somewhere around 173.  After 2013-2014 the public ADE files show both in-state and out-of-state totals so no adjustment is needed.  Before that date the two data bases needed to be combined at AAA.  The AAA appears to still be adding the two groups together which is doubling up the LA kids.  I would expect the 200+ number to be appealed.

JC 2012-2013

JC 2013-2014

JC 2014-2015

JC 2015-2016

JC 2016-2017
« Last Edit: May 03, 2017, 07:03:06 pm by bleudog »

 

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