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Do you hear that?

Started by Red Devil Alum, November 28, 2015, 11:51:08 am

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WPWells

Some of the statistics talk on this thread makes me want to rip my hair out 😅

HorseFeathers

Quote from: 12th Man CHS on November 28, 2015, 05:16:25 pm
Some of the statistics talk on this thread makes me want to rip my hair out 😅

Bald might be a good look on you :D

MDXPHD

November 28, 2015, 05:22:51 pm #52 Last Edit: November 28, 2015, 05:24:31 pm by MDXPHD
Quote from: 12th Man CHS on November 28, 2015, 05:16:25 pm
Some of the statistics talk on this thread makes me want to rip my hair out 😅

Well, you're in luck. I have to check out for the next few weeks so I won't be around to argue about them!

Good luck to both McClellan and PA in the finals. I'll get caught up on the board sometime this off season. You guys keep it civil on here, especially intelligentsia and PA Dad. You guys always answer with political correctness, I need that to change this off season. I expect you both to start offending people like Panther blue and inyogrill do!

Red Devil Alum

Quote from: MDXPHD on November 28, 2015, 05:11:56 pm
Lol, believe me, I understand statistics more than you know. But it's always unrealistic to rely solely on immensely varying statistics to justify a teams strategy. The Certain things that you are referring to don't give ALL teams an advantage. That's just not true. Some things do, sure. But never punting or kicking deep definitely don't.

Just like the theory,  based on statistics, that the murder rate increased in the early 90s because of Roe v Wade. Apparently, statistically speaking, there was a correlation between children who would have been aborted  and murder rates. It's interesting to read and learn about, but it doesn't mean it's true.
You don't believe in statistics, I get that. You have to get 10 yards to save your life, do you want 3 chances or 4?

WPWells

Sorry, I should have clarified that I'm a Statistics major

Red Devil Alum

Quote from: whippersnapper on November 28, 2015, 05:12:34 pm
Quote from: Red Devil Alum on November 28, 2015, 04:54:04 pm
Quote from: whippersnapper on November 28, 2015, 04:38:20 pm
Maybe i am reading to much into this. But can I ask why some think McClellan and Hope have better "athletes"? Cause it reads to me that some are stereotyping that since those 2 schools have more black players that they must be better " athletes " or football players. Which is far from the truth. Not trying to start anything, just asking is all.
I watched them both play and they have more players that are bigger and faster. I get your point, but that's not mine.
Bigger or faster doesn't necessarily mean better though. Just because some WR is 6'1 and runs like a deer doesn't mean he should catch everything thrown in front of him. The game of football is so much more then just being big and fast. That tailback for Hope may not see running lanes as well the tailback for PA. Some never get the vison to run the ball. One of the best linebackers I have seen for a team was a guy of the size around 5'8 165-175 from Magazine during their 3 year run 09-11. He was the smallest out their on defense but the best tackler and defensive player for them. He didn't look like no athlete for sure. But on Saturday in the paper 10+ tackles for the game.
So by your definition the better athlete is the better player, measurables be dang. But to most, the bigger and faster are better athletes, though maybe not a better player.

If you watched Hope and you watched PA get off their buses and you didn't know who was who, you would pick the Hope players to win.

MDXPHD

Quote from: Red Devil Alum on November 28, 2015, 05:24:23 pm
Quote from: MDXPHD on November 28, 2015, 05:11:56 pm
Lol, believe me, I understand statistics more than you know. But it's always unrealistic to rely solely on immensely varying statistics to justify a teams strategy. The Certain things that you are referring to don't give ALL teams an advantage. That's just not true. Some things do, sure. But never punting or kicking deep definitely don't.

Just like the theory,  based on statistics, that the murder rate increased in the early 90s because of Roe v Wade. Apparently, statistically speaking, there was a correlation between children who would have been aborted  and murder rates. It's interesting to read and learn about, but it doesn't mean it's true.
You don't believe in statistics, I get that. You have to get 10 yards to save your life, do you want 3 chances or 4?

I'll rebut this and then I have to go for several weeks. The problem with your hypothetical is that you pretend there aren't any other options. Of course if I was trying to save my life I would want 4 chances, unless there is another option that I could use to save my life that suited my tools better.

MDXPHD

Quote from: 12th Man CHS on November 28, 2015, 05:26:06 pm
Sorry, I should have clarified that I'm a Statistics major

Oh haha. Then I'm sure we all sound ignorant to you.

WPWells

I'm developing a long post on my statistical thoughts regarding PA's system. I'll post it later tonight, probably in a new thread.

HorseFeathers

Quote from: 12th Man CHS on November 28, 2015, 05:30:50 pm
I'm developing a long post on my statistical thoughts regarding PA's system. I'll post it later tonight, probably in a new thread.

Terrible idea...I'll have to put TLDR on it...

Lionheart88

Quote from: PA Dad on November 28, 2015, 04:37:01 pm
Quote from: MDXPHD on November 28, 2015, 04:23:28 pm
Quote from: PA Dad on November 28, 2015, 04:19:45 pm
Quote from: MDXPHD on November 28, 2015, 04:16:17 pm
I think the statistics are relevant, but those statistics vary greatly in between teams. Some teams have a much better chance to convert on a 4th down conversion than holding their opponent after giving them good field position, but others don't. Others have a better chance to play defense and hold the opponent. Sure, general statistics are fun to throw out, but that doesn't hold true for other teams.

The study I referenced wasn't based on one team - it considered many teams over several years.  So it's hard to argue it applies only to "some" teams.

The many teams it was based on is the point of my argument. So much variation between the teams. I promise you Batesville has a better chance to punt the ball and hold the other team than they do on a 4th down conversion attempt in almost every situation. It's team specific.

I'd actually like to see those stats.  You may be right, but we're talking about percentages which accounts for variations between different teams.

I remember one stat in particular.  On 4th and two yards or less, a team goin for it makes it 80% of the time.  Why wouldn't any coach play the odds in that circumstance?
Field position?  If you're deep in your own territory, 80% may still not be worth the risk, especially if you have a good punter.

The opposing defense?  If they've been stuffing you on short-yardage plays all night, that changes the percentages.

The opposing offense?  If you're facing a quick-strike offense like PA, maybe it doesn't matter, but forcing a grind-it-out offense like, say, Cabot to make long drives and eat clock can make a lot of sense.

The score/time remaining?  If we're already up, forcing the other team to drive the length of the field and maybe run out of clock can make more sense than risking giving them short field, even if they're a quicker offense (see the last point).


Sure, you can trust the percentages in the long game, and you'll probably come out ahead in the long run, but you can look at factors in individual games and make decisions that are smarter in this game too.

Red Devil Alum

Quote from: 12th Man CHS on November 28, 2015, 05:30:50 pm
I'm developing a long post on my statistical thoughts regarding PA's system. I'll post it later tonight, probably in a new thread.
I will be interested to read it.

PrivateLesson

Quote from: MDXPHD on November 28, 2015, 05:28:56 pm
Quote from: Red Devil Alum on November 28, 2015, 05:24:23 pm
Quote from: MDXPHD on November 28, 2015, 05:11:56 pm
Lol, believe me, I understand statistics more than you know. But it's always unrealistic to rely solely on immensely varying statistics to justify a teams strategy. The Certain things that you are referring to don't give ALL teams an advantage. That's just not true. Some things do, sure. But never punting or kicking deep definitely don't.

Just like the theory,  based on statistics, that the murder rate increased in the early 90s because of Roe v Wade. Apparently, statistically speaking, there was a correlation between children who would have been aborted  and murder rates. It's interesting to read and learn about, but it doesn't mean it's true.
You don't believe in statistics, I get that. You have to get 10 yards to save your life, do you want 3 chances or 4?

I'll rebut this and then I have to go for several weeks. The problem with your hypothetical is that you pretend there aren't any other options. Of course if I was trying to save my life I would want 4 chances, unless there is another option that I could use to save my life that suited my tools better.

Don't leave, please!  We need good posters.   If you do decide to, I hope everything is alright and you have a blessed Christmas:)

MDXPHD

Quote from: PrivateLesson on November 28, 2015, 05:53:59 pm
Quote from: MDXPHD on November 28, 2015, 05:28:56 pm
Quote from: Red Devil Alum on November 28, 2015, 05:24:23 pm
Quote from: MDXPHD on November 28, 2015, 05:11:56 pm
Lol, believe me, I understand statistics more than you know. But it's always unrealistic to rely solely on immensely varying statistics to justify a teams strategy. The Certain things that you are referring to don't give ALL teams an advantage. That's just not true. Some things do, sure. But never punting or kicking deep definitely don't.

Just like the theory,  based on statistics, that the murder rate increased in the early 90s because of Roe v Wade. Apparently, statistically speaking, there was a correlation between children who would have been aborted  and murder rates. It's interesting to read and learn about, but it doesn't mean it's true.
You don't believe in statistics, I get that. You have to get 10 yards to save your life, do you want 3 chances or 4?

I'll rebut this and then I have to go for several weeks. The problem with your hypothetical is that you pretend there aren't any other options. Of course if I was trying to save my life I would want 4 chances, unless there is another option that I could use to save my life that suited my tools better.

Don't leave, please!  We need good posters.   If you do decide to, I hope everything is alright and you have a blessed Christmas:)

Private, I get pretty busy this time of the year. I'll be back, don't worry! Thanks for the compliment and you have a blessed Christmas as well!

WPWells

If anyone could get me the exact statistics for PA's philosophies that would be awesome

PA Dad

Quote from: 12th Man CHS on November 28, 2015, 06:24:46 pm
If anyone could get me the exact statistics for PA's philosophies that would be awesome

I don't have them.

AT

Batesville 2012 is the best blueprint I've ever seen by far to stop Kelley's system. Very well executed game plan by the Pioneers that night.

AT

Coach Kelley's stats on onside kicks is the most convincing argument I've seen from his unconventional system. Teams that squib kick or high kick are only gaining 20 yards or less than an failed onside kick.

But a squib kick or high kick has a much smaller chance of going into the possession of the kicking team than a onside kick does.

Red Devil Alum

Quote from: Almatrackster on November 28, 2015, 06:40:47 pm
Coach Kelley's stats on onside kicks is the most convincing argument I've seen from his unconventional system. Teams that squib kick or high kick are only gaining 20 yards or less than an failed onside kick.

But a squib kick or high kick has a much smaller chance of going into the possession of the kicking team than a onside kick does.
Last night LRCA kicked off twice. Once to 35 and and once to The 40. So the "safe" play gained 10 Yards and 15 more yards than an onside kick. PA's first two kicks were recovered and it was 14-0 before LRCA snapped the ball.

Totally anecdotal, but changed the game last night.

Yellowcake

Playing football at PA is a year round commitment. On the field, in the weight room and in the film room. How often do you see PA players miss assignments or be out of position? Almost never. They may get whipped by a better player, but they are crisp in their execution. Remember Barton? They won because of perfect execution, and they put the work in.

Guys, I used to be a PA hater. Then I ended up sending my kids there and I had to come 180. Once I finally figured out that they won because they simply out worked everyone, I could make the conversion. I don't think many here understand how much those kids sacrifice year round to be the best they can be. And it shows on the field.

Did ya'll know PA, with the 1.75 multiplier, should have been 4A the past few seasons? A situation arose where PA could play 5 A, and Kelley snapped it up.

HorseFeathers

1.75 multiplier hasn't applied in 5+ years

Yellowcake

You telling everyone that PA has a 5 A student body? Wanna bet?

HorseFeathers

Quote from: Yellowcake on November 28, 2015, 08:38:46 pm
You telling everyone that PA has a 5 A student body? Wanna bet?

Smh...they have a 4a. The 1.75 multiplier no longer exists and hasnt for a while. Private schools with an enrollment larger than 75 play up a class from where theirbenrollment would put them. P.A may play up two, due to petitioning to do so.

Yellowcake

I think that is correct on the petition.
I didn't know they abandoned the multiplier. Thank you for the clarification.
I think LR Catholic would be a great addition to 5 A.

HorseFeathers

Quote from: Yellowcake on November 28, 2015, 08:46:00 pm
I think that is correct on the petition.
I didn't know they abandoned the multiplier. Thank you for the clarification.
I think LR Catholic would be a great addition to 5 A.

Nashville finally stopped trying to get CAC out of their conference with a multiplier :D...some may remember that joke on here. Anyway, it makes it more impressive that p.a would win 4a almost every year, but choose to play up...

Coach Kelley, PA

I got on here to look at Rhonda's pictures to be completely honest and then was alerted to this post by someone and thought I would stop by. 

First, at the risk of sounding like a complete jerk, when I read statements on here like, this would never work, or the reason for this IS because of that, it just doesn't sound right to me.  If I were critiquing a certain  surgeon on a certain type of procedure (I understand that there are several different types of procedures for each surgery), I would say more of something like, "It looks to me as if... or I really believe....".   I just wouldn't say it as factual. 

I say that to say that either I know nothing about football or else you guys are all right about the stats, the talent, the whole thing and know more than I do about my craft.  If you do, then that is great and my hat is off to you.  I certainly hope you don't as I have spent thousands and thousands of hours and that alone should lend some credibility to what I am about to say.   And by the way, this is also based off talking to some of the greatest minds in the game at New England, at Auburn, at Alabama, at Atlanta Falcons, at Philly, at Cal, at Baylor, and the list goes on and on.  I consider those guys the greatest minds in the game.  Much of what we do is approved by all of those guys.  Many of them have watched our film and agreed that not only is it right, but that just like every other team, you should line up and be able to beat half the team you play based on talent and the other half hopefully with coaching.

Coaching, contrary to popular belief, is only partially made up from on the field stuff on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday depending on what league you are in.  The number one thing is psychology and being able to get people to believe in the same thing you do whether it is not punting, or selflessness, or hard work, or whatever.  My belief is simple, we are going to work harder and more and deserve to win and I am going to try to give us every statistical advantage and opportunity with simple decision making. 

Statistics and decisions from those make up a very small part of the game but added up, can certainly help win and lose games.  The football data guys will tell you that in the NFL for instance, simple decision making cost almost a win per game on avg last year in the NFL. Doesn't sound like much until you miss the playoffs by one game, or don't get home field advantage by one game.  Then it matters.  How about in college where you miss that big bowl by one game or that college playoff by one game.  It matters then.

And the type of offense or defense you run doesn't matter with what the numbers say.  Some people say, oh the 4th down stuff fits the spread or no, it fits the triple option.  IT FITS FOOTBALL.  Regardless of situation, talent level, type of athlete, whatever.  Good defense, then it doesnt matter where you give it to them.  Bad defense, then you better use all four downs so the defense doesn't have to go out there as much.  Good offense, then you can outscore them when you go for it on fourth down and they score from putting your defense in a bad spot.   Bad offense, then you need all four downs to make the first down anyway.

You would be absolutely amazed at the things that are for TRUE in football that not many know and fewer employ.  I will give you one situation:  First quarter of a game.  0-0 tie.  Your team has the ball on their opponent 1 yard line.  YOU ARE BETTER OFF TAKING A KNEE AND GIVING THE OTHER TEAM THE BALL THAN YOU ARE KICKING A FIELD GOAL.  Yep, that's right. You would be better off just telling the refs you don't want 4th down at all.  You want them to have it.  There are points per yard line and in that situation and even farther out than that, there is a negative point expectancy based on many things that happen from that point on the field from the psychology of the way the coach approaches having the ball on his own one, to the type of punt that is delivered from there and how often. 

To truly have a chance to even try to make an unbiased opinion, you have to step back and pretend you have ZERO IDEA ABOUT HOW THE GAME SHOULD BE PLAYED.  Any preconceived notion and you screw up any chances to make a completely rational decision.

Football is football ladies and gentleman and those coaches from those places above will all tell you that.  The greatest minds in football those guys are.  They have all had tremendous success. 

The funny thing is I am not trying to sell you on it.  I really want everyone at every level to keep on doing what they are doing.  All the stuff we do helps us even more because of that. 

I know that I will post this and here everyone comes again.  I LOVE TO LEARN.  I LOVE TO READ.  I have no other reason to get on here than to try to impart some wisdom about one of the ONLY things I know anything about, my passion.  I can't do anything else in life. I promise you, EVERY ONE OF YOU ARE BETTER THAN ME AT 95% of everything else and I am fine with that.

But God did give me this, the ability to think differently, analytically, and the ability to lead.  I didn't earn it.  But I try to use my gift like all of you should.

I hope this doesn't make any one mad or upset.  And please quit selling kids short on all sides saying one team doesn't have enough talent to beat another or whatever.  Two great things about football.  As we all know, MOST teams, not all, can beat any team on a given night.

And if you are less talented, there are decisions, offenses, summer sessions of deserving to win, that teams can do to win.   

I LOVE FOOTBALL AND PART OF THE REASON IS IT BRINGS OUT THE PASSION IN PEOPLE LIKE YOU ALL ON HERE. 

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone and I hope you all have a Merry Christmas!

(P.S. I didn't do one second of spell check so any of that or misuse of words, I hustled through this.)   

Kevin Kelley

Yellowcake

Thank you for that Coach Kelly. That is very helpful insight.
And please don't leave PA anytime soon. My daughters are in the 5th and 8th grade, and I really want to watch your kids play on Friday nights for at least the next 7 years. And I am not alone. :)

WPWells

+1000000 coach. I'd love the opportunity to talk to you sometime and analyze these things statistically. I'm absolutely fascinated by your philosophy, and sports and math are two of my three passions in life. Thanks for this post. I'll be bookmarking it and returning to it again and again.

PA Dad

Quote from: Coach Kelley, PA on November 28, 2015, 08:51:18 pm
I got on here to look at Rhonda's pictures to be completely honest and then was alerted to this post by someone and thought I would stop by. 

First, at the risk of sounding like a complete jerk, when I read statements on here like, this would never work, or the reason for this IS because of that, it just doesn't sound right to me.  If I were critiquing a certain  surgeon on a certain type of procedure (I understand that there are several different types of procedures for each surgery), I would say more of something like, "It looks to me as if... or I really believe....".   I just wouldn't say it as factual. 

I say that to say that either I know nothing about football or else you guys are all right about the stats, the talent, the whole thing and know more than I do about my craft.  If you do, then that is great and my hat is off to you.  I certainly hope you don't as I have spent thousands and thousands of hours and that alone should lend some credibility to what I am about to say.   And by the way, this is also based off talking to some of the greatest minds in the game at New England, at Auburn, at Alabama, at Atlanta Falcons, at Philly, at Cal, at Baylor, and the list goes on and on.  I consider those guys the greatest minds in the game.  Much of what we do is approved by all of those guys.  Many of them have watched our film and agreed that not only is it right, but that just like every other team, you should line up and be able to beat half the team you play based on talent and the other half hopefully with coaching.

Coaching, contrary to popular belief, is only partially made up from on the field stuff on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday depending on what league you are in.  The number one thing is psychology and being able to get people to believe in the same thing you do whether it is not punting, or selflessness, or hard work, or whatever.  My belief is simple, we are going to work harder and more and deserve to win and I am going to try to give us every statistical advantage and opportunity with simple decision making. 

Statistics and decisions from those make up a very small part of the game but added up, can certainly help win and lose games.  The football data guys will tell you that in the NFL for instance, simple decision making cost almost a win per game on avg last year in the NFL. Doesn't sound like much until you miss the playoffs by one game, or don't get home field advantage by one game.  Then it matters.  How about in college where you miss that big bowl by one game or that college playoff by one game.  It matters then.

And the type of offense or defense you run doesn't matter with what the numbers say.  Some people say, oh the 4th down stuff fits the spread or no, it fits the triple option.  IT FITS FOOTBALL.  Regardless of situation, talent level, type of athlete, whatever.  Good defense, then it doesnt matter where you give it to them.  Bad defense, then you better use all four downs so the defense doesn't have to go out there as much.  Good offense, then you can outscore them when you go for it on fourth down and they score from putting your defense in a bad spot.   Bad offense, then you need all four downs to make the first down anyway.

You would be absolutely amazed at the things that are for TRUE in football that not many know and fewer employ.  I will give you one situation:  First quarter of a game.  0-0 tie.  Your team has the ball on their opponent 1 yard line.  YOU ARE BETTER OFF TAKING A KNEE AND GIVING THE OTHER TEAM THE BALL THAN YOU ARE KICKING A FIELD GOAL.  Yep, that's right. You would be better off just telling the refs you don't want 4th down at all.  You want them to have it.  There are points per yard line and in that situation and even farther out than that, there is a negative point expectancy based on many things that happen from that point on the field from the psychology of the way the coach approaches having the ball on his own one, to the type of punt that is delivered from there and how often. 

To truly have a chance to even try to make an unbiased opinion, you have to step back and pretend you have ZERO IDEA ABOUT HOW THE GAME SHOULD BE PLAYED.  Any preconceived notion and you screw up any chances to make a completely rational decision.

Football is football ladies and gentleman and those coaches from those places above will all tell you that.  The greatest minds in football those guys are.  They have all had tremendous success. 

The funny thing is I am not trying to sell you on it.  I really want everyone at every level to keep on doing what they are doing.  All the stuff we do helps us even more because of that. 

I know that I will post this and here everyone comes again.  I LOVE TO LEARN.  I LOVE TO READ.  I have no other reason to get on here than to try to impart some wisdom about one of the ONLY things I know anything about, my passion.  I can't do anything else in life. I promise you, EVERY ONE OF YOU ARE BETTER THAN ME AT 95% of everything else and I am fine with that.

But God did give me this, the ability to think differently, analytically, and the ability to lead.  I didn't earn it.  But I try to use my gift like all of you should.

I hope this doesn't make any one mad or upset.  And please quit selling kids short on all sides saying one team doesn't have enough talent to beat another or whatever.  Two great things about football.  As we all know, MOST teams, not all, can beat any team on a given night.

And if you are less talented, there are decisions, offenses, summer sessions of deserving to win, that teams can do to win.   

I LOVE FOOTBALL AND PART OF THE REASON IS IT BRINGS OUT THE PASSION IN PEOPLE LIKE YOU ALL ON HERE. 

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone and I hope you all have a Merry Christmas!

(P.S. I didn't do one second of spell check so any of that or misuse of words, I hustled through this.)   

Kevin Kelley

Well said Coach.  Truth is, most of us on this board don't know much about football but we all love it and are passionate about it.  It's good to hear from a real expert.

You may not convince many of the naysayers, but your success speaks for itself.

Pr8hd

I just wonder if/when Rick Jones steps away from coaching  if Coach Kelley would be interested in a fielding a call from Greenwood on the opening. I know he has some family ties here and it'll take someone of his caliber to step into shoes that big. I for one would love it and I know several others would as well. Jones and he are a lot alike in their desire to evolve and keep learning. He's already getting more and more attention across the nation. He's bound to be getting some offers to go elsewhere and definitely one of the best at his craft along with Jones. 

PA Dad

Quote from: Pr8hd on November 28, 2015, 09:16:04 pm
I just wonder if/when Rick Jones steps away from coaching  if Coach Kelley would be interested in a fielding a call from Greenwood on the opening. I know he has some family ties here and it'll take someone of his caliber to step into shoes that big. I for one would love it and I know several others would as well. Jones and he are a lot alike in their desire to evolve and keep learning. He's already getting more anxd more attention across the nation. He's bound to be getting some offers to go elsewhere and definitely one of the best at his craft along with Jones.

Hands off!  No recruiting on this board!

HorseFeathers

Can we just lock this thread now?

WPWells


HorseFeathers


Pr8hd

Quote from: PA Dad on November 28, 2015, 09:17:16 pm
Quote from: Pr8hd on November 28, 2015, 09:16:04 pm
I just wonder if/when Rick Jones steps away from coaching  if Coach Kelley would be interested in a fielding a call from Greenwood on the opening. I know he has some family ties here and it'll take someone of his caliber to step into shoes that big. I for one would love it and I know several others would as well. Jones and he are a lot alike in their desire to evolve and keep learning. He's already getting more anxd more attention across the nation. He's bound to be getting some offers to go elsewhere and definitely one of the best at his craft along with Jones.

Hands off!  No recruiting on this board!

LoL! My guess is he's already had some tempting offers....

Jones is not getting any younger, unfortunately, and Kelley has proven he can win with a really good system. He would be an easy one to support. He's made me a believer in what he does and what his teams accomplish.

As for his connections, he has a cousin on the GW school board.

Just saying....   

PA Dad

Quote from: Pr8hd on November 28, 2015, 09:35:10 pm
Quote from: PA Dad on November 28, 2015, 09:17:16 pm
Quote from: Pr8hd on November 28, 2015, 09:16:04 pm
I just wonder if/when Rick Jones steps away from coaching  if Coach Kelley would be interested in a fielding a call from Greenwood on the opening. I know he has some family ties here and it'll take someone of his caliber to step into shoes that big. I for one would love it and I know several others would as well. Jones and he are a lot alike in their desire to evolve and keep learning. He's already getting more anxd more attention across the nation. He's bound to be getting some offers to go elsewhere and definitely one of the best at his craft along with Jones.

Hands off!  No recruiting on this board!

LoL! My guess is he's already had some tempting offers....

Jones is not getting any younger, unfortunately, and Kelley has proven he can win with a really good system. He would be an easy one to support. He's made me a believer in what he does and what his teams accomplish.

As for his connections, he has a cousin on the GW school board.

Just saying....   

He just signed a 25 year ironclad contract with PA.  You're just out of luck!

mohawk1999

PA is a novelty football program.  They are as successful as they are because other teams don't have enough time to prepare for them.  If other programs sold out and did what PA does then PA wouldn't be as successful because other teams would be more prepared. 

As an old timer I wonder how PA would match up in a traditional football game?

Red Devil Alum

Quote from: mohawk1999 on November 28, 2015, 10:00:46 pm
PA is a novelty football program.  They are as successful as they are because other teams don't have enough time to prepare for them.  If other programs sold out and did what PA does then PA wouldn't be as successful because other teams would be more prepared. 

As an old timer I wonder how PA would match up in a traditional football game?
Highland Park had 9 months.  How long would you like a team to have to prepare for this "novelty"?

PA Dad

Quote from: mohawk1999 on November 28, 2015, 10:00:46 pm
PA is a novelty football program.  They are as successful as they are because other teams don't have enough time to prepare for them.  If other programs sold out and did what PA does then PA wouldn't be as successful because other teams would be more prepared. 

As an old timer I wonder how PA would match up in a traditional football game?

They are indeed novel because Kelley thinks way outside the box.  That's his whole point, which apparently went right over your head.  That's exactly why he said he hopes others don't adopt his methods.

Who cares how PA would do if Kelley played traditional football.  The point is that he is successful because he is willing to look at everything with an eye to what works, not what is traditional.

mohawk1999

Quote from: Red Devil Alum on November 28, 2015, 10:02:58 pm
Quote from: mohawk1999 on November 28, 2015, 10:00:46 pm
PA is a novelty football program.  They are as successful as they are because other teams don't have enough time to prepare for them.  If other programs sold out and did what PA does then PA wouldn't be as successful because other teams would be more prepared. 

As an old timer I wonder how PA would match up in a traditional football game?
Highland Park had 9 months.  How long would you like a team to have to prepare for this "novelty"?


They didn't spend 9 month preparing for PA.  That game meant nothing to them other than keeping up a winning streak.   The majority of their time had to be spent on getting ready for traditional football.

Don't get me wrong, they are very good at what they do, but a large part of that success is that other teams hardky ever face teams like PA.  So PA has a great advantage.  That's just how it is. Which side of the argument you stand on is your own business

mohawk1999

Quote from: PA Dad on November 28, 2015, 10:07:14 pm
Quote from: mohawk1999 on November 28, 2015, 10:00:46 pm
PA is a novelty football program.  They are as successful as they are because other teams don't have enough time to prepare for them.  If other programs sold out and did what PA does then PA wouldn't be as successful because other teams would be more prepared. 

As an old timer I wonder how PA would match up in a traditional football game?

They are indeed novel because Kelley thinks way outside the box.  That's his whole point, which apparently went right over your head.  That's exactly why he said he hopes others don't adopt his methods.

Who cares how PA would do if Kelley played traditional football.  The point is that he is successful because he is willing to look at everything with an eye to what works, not what


Thanks for making me realize it went over my head.

PA Dad

Quote from: mohawk1999 on November 28, 2015, 10:10:08 pm
Quote from: Red Devil Alum on November 28, 2015, 10:02:58 pm
Quote from: mohawk1999 on November 28, 2015, 10:00:46 pm
PA is a novelty football program.  They are as successful as they are because other teams don't have enough time to prepare for them.  If other programs sold out and did what PA does then PA wouldn't be as successful because other teams would be more prepared. 

As an old timer I wonder how PA would match up in a traditional football game?
Highland Park had 9 months.  How long would you like a team to have to prepare for this "novelty"?


They didn't spend 9 month preparing for PA.  That game meant nothing to them other than keeping up a winning streak.   The majority of their time had to be spent on getting ready for traditional football.

Don't get me wrong, they are very good at what they do, but a large part of that success is that other teams hardky ever face teams like PA.  So PA has a great advantage.  That's just how it is. Which side of the argument you stand on is your own business

You are right that PA is successful , in part, because other teams never see another team like PA.  That's based on science.  That's not a bad thing.  The goal of any coach is to win.  Kelley does that.  Why is that bad?

Red Devil Alum

Quote from: mohawk1999 on November 28, 2015, 10:10:08 pm
Quote from: Red Devil Alum on November 28, 2015, 10:02:58 pm
Quote from: mohawk1999 on November 28, 2015, 10:00:46 pm
PA is a novelty football program.  They are as successful as they are because other teams don't have enough time to prepare for them.  If other programs sold out and did what PA does then PA wouldn't be as successful because other teams would be more prepared. 

As an old timer I wonder how PA would match up in a traditional football game?
Highland Park had 9 months.  How long would you like a team to have to prepare for this "novelty"?


They didn't spend 9 month preparing for PA.  That game meant nothing to them other than keeping up a winning streak.   The majority of their time had to be spent on getting ready for traditional football.

Don't get me wrong, they are very good at what they do, but a large part of that success is that other teams hardky ever face teams like PA.  So PA has a great advantage.  That's just how it is. Which side of the argument you stand on is your own business
PA has won 26 straight games.  Maybe one team will start to prepare for them soon.

But your point seems to be that PA has an advantage because they don't make themselves easy to prepare for. 

UncleRico

Quote from: PA Dad on November 28, 2015, 01:36:00 pm
Quote from: Chin Music on November 28, 2015, 01:07:13 pm
PA just puts so much pressure on every aspect of their opponent.  The defense is under pressure to stop that offense to less than 10 yards on 4 plays.  The offense is under pressure to score basically every possession.  The coach is even under pressure if he wins the coin toss.  Do you kick and give it to that explosive offense to start?  Or do you take the ball and have to come up with the onside kick?  No doubt that is a tough decision, especially in the rain.

I can't recall seeing such a hyped game literally be over after the opening "kickoff".

Serious question.  Kelley has proven that his system works.  Why don't other coaches try it?

I won't accept that other teams don't have the athletes to make it work.  I think most coaches would say that LRC has better athletes than PA.  Hope was loaded with good athletes.

Everyone acknowledges that PA's scheme is nearly impossible to defend but no one else runs it.  Why not?
A. It takes guts to not punt, and onside kick every time. BUT, PA doesn't get enough credit for how good there defense normally is. When you can count on getting stops, and scoring a lot of points. Those aren't major gambles like they would be for other teams.
B. Most coaches are like Kelly, they do things the way they see fit. If PA didn't recover all year, they'd keep doing it, because that's who he is.
C. *Speaking on his Offense* I believe PA has its on little league team with kids that are throwing the ball all over the place. Most other schools (in little rock for sure) don't have near the farm system of PA. Not even at the middle school level. Makes a big difference, to have been running a system, for 4-8 years coming into high school.

Red Devil Alum

Quote from: UncleRico on November 28, 2015, 11:11:52 pm
Quote from: PA Dad on November 28, 2015, 01:36:00 pm
Quote from: Chin Music on November 28, 2015, 01:07:13 pm
PA just puts so much pressure on every aspect of their opponent.  The defense is under pressure to stop that offense to less than 10 yards on 4 plays.  The offense is under pressure to score basically every possession.  The coach is even under pressure if he wins the coin toss.  Do you kick and give it to that explosive offense to start?  Or do you take the ball and have to come up with the onside kick?  No doubt that is a tough decision, especially in the rain.

I can't recall seeing such a hyped game literally be over after the opening "kickoff".

Serious question.  Kelley has proven that his system works.  Why don't other coaches try it?

I won't accept that other teams don't have the athletes to make it work.  I think most coaches would say that LRC has better athletes than PA.  Hope was loaded with good athletes.

Everyone acknowledges that PA's scheme is nearly impossible to defend but no one else runs it.  Why not?
A. It takes guts to not punt, and onside kick every time. BUT, PA doesn't get enough credit for how good there defense normally is. When you can count on getting stops, and scoring a lot of points. Those aren't major gambles like they would be for other teams.
B. Most coaches are like Kelly, they do things the way they see fit. If PA didn't recover all year, they'd keep doing it, because that's who he is.
C. *Speaking on his Offense* I believe PA has its on little league team with kids that are throwing the ball all over the place. Most other schools (in little rock for sure) don't have near the farm system of PA. Not even at the middle school level. Makes a big difference, to have been running a system, for 4-8 years coming into high school.
I agree with all three points. And C helps disprove the claim some have that PA recruits. Each high school team has been together for 6+ years.

Lionheart88

I'd love to see the numbers on it being better to not kick the field goal.  Me, I'd make the safe play and take the points.  But then again, I've never coached American Football.

Grond

Quote from: Coach Kelley, PA on November 28, 2015, 08:51:18 pm
I got on here to look at Rhonda's pictures to be completely honest and then was alerted to this post by someone and thought I would stop by. 

First, at the risk of sounding like a complete jerk, when I read statements on here like, this would never work, or the reason for this IS because of that, it just doesn't sound right to me.  If I were critiquing a certain  surgeon on a certain type of procedure (I understand that there are several different types of procedures for each surgery), I would say more of something like, "It looks to me as if... or I really believe....".   I just wouldn't say it as factual. 

I say that to say that either I know nothing about football or else you guys are all right about the stats, the talent, the whole thing and know more than I do about my craft.  If you do, then that is great and my hat is off to you.  I certainly hope you don't as I have spent thousands and thousands of hours and that alone should lend some credibility to what I am about to say.   And by the way, this is also based off talking to some of the greatest minds in the game at New England, at Auburn, at Alabama, at Atlanta Falcons, at Philly, at Cal, at Baylor, and the list goes on and on.  I consider those guys the greatest minds in the game.  Much of what we do is approved by all of those guys.  Many of them have watched our film and agreed that not only is it right, but that just like every other team, you should line up and be able to beat half the team you play based on talent and the other half hopefully with coaching.

Coaching, contrary to popular belief, is only partially made up from on the field stuff on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday depending on what league you are in.  The number one thing is psychology and being able to get people to believe in the same thing you do whether it is not punting, or selflessness, or hard work, or whatever.  My belief is simple, we are going to work harder and more and deserve to win and I am going to try to give us every statistical advantage and opportunity with simple decision making. 

Statistics and decisions from those make up a very small part of the game but added up, can certainly help win and lose games.  The football data guys will tell you that in the NFL for instance, simple decision making cost almost a win per game on avg last year in the NFL. Doesn't sound like much until you miss the playoffs by one game, or don't get home field advantage by one game.  Then it matters.  How about in college where you miss that big bowl by one game or that college playoff by one game.  It matters then.

And the type of offense or defense you run doesn't matter with what the numbers say.  Some people say, oh the 4th down stuff fits the spread or no, it fits the triple option.  IT FITS FOOTBALL.  Regardless of situation, talent level, type of athlete, whatever.  Good defense, then it doesnt matter where you give it to them.  Bad defense, then you better use all four downs so the defense doesn't have to go out there as much.  Good offense, then you can outscore them when you go for it on fourth down and they score from putting your defense in a bad spot.   Bad offense, then you need all four downs to make the first down anyway.

You would be absolutely amazed at the things that are for TRUE in football that not many know and fewer employ.  I will give you one situation:  First quarter of a game.  0-0 tie.  Your team has the ball on their opponent 1 yard line.  YOU ARE BETTER OFF TAKING A KNEE AND GIVING THE OTHER TEAM THE BALL THAN YOU ARE KICKING A FIELD GOAL.  Yep, that's right. You would be better off just telling the refs you don't want 4th down at all.  You want them to have it.  There are points per yard line and in that situation and even farther out than that, there is a negative point expectancy based on many things that happen from that point on the field from the psychology of the way the coach approaches having the ball on his own one, to the type of punt that is delivered from there and how often. 

To truly have a chance to even try to make an unbiased opinion, you have to step back and pretend you have ZERO IDEA ABOUT HOW THE GAME SHOULD BE PLAYED.  Any preconceived notion and you screw up any chances to make a completely rational decision.

Football is football ladies and gentleman and those coaches from those places above will all tell you that.  The greatest minds in football those guys are.  They have all had tremendous success. 

The funny thing is I am not trying to sell you on it.  I really want everyone at every level to keep on doing what they are doing.  All the stuff we do helps us even more because of that. 

I know that I will post this and here everyone comes again.  I LOVE TO LEARN.  I LOVE TO READ.  I have no other reason to get on here than to try to impart some wisdom about one of the ONLY things I know anything about, my passion.  I can't do anything else in life. I promise you, EVERY ONE OF YOU ARE BETTER THAN ME AT 95% of everything else and I am fine with that.

But God did give me this, the ability to think differently, analytically, and the ability to lead.  I didn't earn it.  But I try to use my gift like all of you should.

I hope this doesn't make any one mad or upset.  And please quit selling kids short on all sides saying one team doesn't have enough talent to beat another or whatever.  Two great things about football.  As we all know, MOST teams, not all, can beat any team on a given night.

And if you are less talented, there are decisions, offenses, summer sessions of deserving to win, that teams can do to win.   

I LOVE FOOTBALL AND PART OF THE REASON IS IT BRINGS OUT THE PASSION IN PEOPLE LIKE YOU ALL ON HERE. 

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone and I hope you all have a Merry Christmas!

(P.S. I didn't do one second of spell check so any of that or misuse of words, I hustled through this.)   

Kevin Kelley

A truly great post. Thank you, sir, for your comments. It is also a Head Coach's post: A beautiful, philosophical look at football.

Now, let us return to HAND-TO-HAND COMBAT.

When I have watched PA football over the past couple of years, I have consistently seen linemen (on offense and defense) playing with a high level of TACTICAL and TECHNICAL SKILL. O-linemen stepping with the correct foot when firing off the line of scrimmage; d-line shifting & slanting correctly to the opponent's formation.

I know another school, with a consistently losing record, that tries many of these on-side kick, etc., tactics. And doesn't have near the success, because they do not have the skill training and play execution discipline of PA.

Notice that I did not say TALENT. As stated in previous posts, PA has some talented athletes, but no more than your typical good 5A school. In 2014, PA and Wynne had the same number of players go to college. If you look at football rosters of Arkansas colleges, you will not see an exceptional number of PA players.

One of the things I love about football is that it is a sport where a good TEAM can still BEAT a great INDIVIDUAL. Look at ANY PA film, and just try to find a single play where there is ONE PA player NOT doing his task. That backside WR runs his route, just to keep that defender on him out of the play, just in case the running back cuts back.

This aspect of football, that EVERYONE NEEDS TO DO THEIR JOB FOR THE TEAM TO WIN, is why football is still a great educational experience for young men. If you are building cars, then everyone has to do their job for the car to run safely; it is the same thing as running a football play.

PA has some wonderful philosophies; but, in my opinion, it is their TECHNIQUE that moves them up and down the field.  ;)

Coach Kelley, PA

Red Devil Alum, PA Dad, Gronk, well said in many areas as well as some great points.

Uncle Rico, I prefer, "intelligence and creativity" over guts, but either way is fine.  People often say it takes guts to go for it, but if in reality you should go for 4th and 1 on your own 30 and you punt, that would actually be guts, because you are actually taking the harder, less likely to win way.

Mohawk1999, HP actually did spend the summer getting ready from us by many accounts from down there.  THE STREAK did mean so much to them and rightly so.  I would not want to be the coach, player, or anyone who lost that streak.  You could tell after the game exactly what it meant to them.  It looked like they had lost the state championship game but worse.  The streak meant even more when Sports Illustrated, USA Today, and ESPN contacted us both and said they were all there covering the game.

Truth be known, our kids and their kids both wanted that game.  It was a state championship game to both. 

Again though, the beauty of football is, we may not have been the best team, but we were just good enough to be able to beat any team on a given night and our kids did just that.


PrivateLesson

You are to be commended for getting the absolute best out of each and every player.   As you mentioned, it is a gift that God has blessed you with...luckily it's to the benefit in shaping and leading young kids.   God Bless and Merry Christmas.   Thanks for posting and sharing your insights.

PrivateLesson

Quote from: purpleswag on November 29, 2015, 01:51:53 pm
The fart sniffing on this thread has gotten to the point that it's almost sickening. To call any football coach a "genius" is rediculous!

I don't care what they have done or how they do it.

Please spell ridiculous one more time!! lol!

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