Fred Bird's Probability Model - 4A

[WPWells]

PROJECTIONS BEFORE ROUND 1
After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Second Round:
Heber Springs: 1.0000
Nashville: 1.0000
Prairie Grove: 1.0000
Warren: 1.0000
Joe T. Robinson: 1.0000
Hamburg: 0.9901
Pocahontas: 0.9750
Gosnell: 0.9750
Stuttgart: 0.9750
Shiloh Christian: 0.7922
Dardanelle: 0.7922
Pea Ridge: 0.6398
Ashdown: 0.6398
Central Arkansas Christian: 0.5818
Booneville: 0.5818
Dumas: 0.5063
Trumann: 0.4937
Mena: 0.4182
Batesville Southside: 0.4182
Arkadelphia: 0.3602
Ozark: 0.3602
Crossett: 0.2078
West Helena Central: 0.2078
Dover: <0.05
Gravette: <0.05
Highland: <0.05
Huntsville: <0.05
Jonesboro Westside: <0.05
Monticello: <0.05
Pottsville: <0.05

To Make Quarterfinals:
Joe T. Robinson: 0.9813
Prairie Grove: 0.8973
Nashville: 0.8625
Warren: 0.7974
Dardanelle: 0.6275
Pocahontas: 0.5713
Gosnell: 0.4856
Heber Springs: 0.4643
Shiloh Christian: 0.4609
Hamburg: 0.4274
Ashdown: 0.3785
Stuttgart: 0.2026
Trumann: 0.2022
Dumas: 0.1446
Pea Ridge: 0.1178
West Helena Central: 0.0869
Crossett: 0.0749
Central Arkansas Christian: 0.0598
Booneville: <0.05
Mena: <0.05
Batesville Southside: <0.05
Arkadelphia: <0.05
Ozark: <0.05

To Make Semifinals:
Nashville: 0.7742
Prairie Grove: 0.7462
Joe T. Robinson: 0.6175
Dardanelle: 0.3495
Warren: 0.3414
Shiloh Christian: 0.3057
Heber Springs: 0.2506
Gosnell: 0.1121
Ashdown: 0.0955
Pocahontas: 0.0860
Pea Ridge: 0.0715
Hamburg: 0.0609
Trumann: 0.0595
Stuttgart: <0.05
Dumas: <0.05
West Helena Central: <0.05
Crossett: <0.05
Central Arkansas Christian: <0.05

To Make Finals:
Nashville: 0.7884
Prairie Grove: 0.2074
Joe T. Robinson: 0.5232
Warren: 0.2465
Pocahontas: 0.0627
Pea Ridge: 0.0540
Dardanelle: <0.05
Shiloh Christian: <0.05
Heber Springs: <0.05
Gosnell: <0.05
Ashdown: <0.05
Hamburg: <0.05
Trumann: <0.05

To Win State Championship:
Nashville: 0.5092
Joe T. Robinson: 0.2987
Warren: 0.1384
Prairie Grove: 0.0754
Pocahontas: <0.05
Pea Ridge: <0.05

[$aintMaximu$]

I like it Fred Bird... Looks good...

[FootBallar21]

Mena should be and is the favorite vs CAC

[WPWells]

I have them picked. My model is independent from my own thoughts.

[HBG PRIDE]

PROJECTIONS BEFORE ROUND 1
After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Second Round:
Heber Springs: 1.0000
Nashville: 1.0000
Prairie Grove: 1.0000
Warren: 1.0000
Joe T. Robinson: 1.0000
Hamburg: 0.9901
Pocahontas: 0.9750
Gosnell: 0.9750
Stuttgart: 0.9750
Shiloh Christian: 0.7922
Dardanelle: 0.7922
Pea Ridge: 0.6398
Ashdown: 0.6398
Central Arkansas Christian: 0.5818
Booneville: 0.5818
Dumas: 0.5063
Trumann: 0.4937
Mena: 0.4182
Batesville Southside: 0.4182
Arkadelphia: 0.3602
Ozark: 0.3602
Crossett: 0.2078
West Helena Central: 0.2078
Dover: <0.05
Gravette: <0.05
Highland: <0.05
Huntsville: <0.05
Jonesboro Westside: <0.05
Monticello: <0.05
Pottsville: <0.05

To Make Quarterfinals:
Joe T. Robinson: 0.9813
Prairie Grove: 0.8973
Nashville: 0.8625
Warren: 0.7974
Dardanelle: 0.6275
Pocahontas: 0.5713
Gosnell: 0.4856
Heber Springs: 0.4643
Shiloh Christian: 0.4609
Hamburg: 0.4274
Ashdown: 0.3785
Stuttgart: 0.2026
Trumann: 0.2022
Dumas: 0.1446
Pea Ridge: 0.1178
West Helena Central: 0.0869
Crossett: 0.0749
Central Arkansas Christian: 0.0598
Booneville: <0.05
Mena: <0.05
Batesville Southside: <0.05
Arkadelphia: <0.05
Ozark: <0.05

To Make Semifinals:
Nashville: 0.7742
Prairie Grove: 0.7462
Joe T. Robinson: 0.6175
Dardanelle: 0.3495
Warren: 0.3414
Shiloh Christian: 0.3057
Heber Springs: 0.2506
Gosnell: 0.1121
Ashdown: 0.0955
Pocahontas: 0.0860
Pea Ridge: 0.0715
Hamburg: 0.0609
Trumann: 0.0595
Stuttgart: <0.05
Dumas: <0.05
West Helena Central: <0.05
Crossett: <0.05
Central Arkansas Christian: <0.05

To Make Finals:
Nashville: 0.7884
Prairie Grove: 0.2074
Joe T. Robinson: 0.5232
Warren: 0.2465
Pocahontas: 0.0627
Pea Ridge: 0.0540
Dardanelle: <0.05
Shiloh Christian: <0.05
Heber Springs: <0.05
Gosnell: <0.05
Ashdown: <0.05
Hamburg: <0.05
Trumann: <0.05

To Win State Championship:
Nashville: 0.5092
Joe T. Robinson: 0.2987
Warren: 0.1384
Prairie Grove: 0.0754
Pocahontas: <0.05
Pea Ridge: <0.05

All the pollsters had numbers for the last few months too....didn't work out for them....just saying

[WPWells]

Cool.

[WPWells]

I will post updates in the morning. I have done 7A, 3A, and 2A, and I am tired.

[Bigbossman]

Mena should be and is the favorite vs CAC

Hmmmm

[WPWells]

PROJECTIONS BEFORE ROUND 2
After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Second Round:
Heber Springs: 1.0000
Nashville: 1.0000
Prairie Grove: 1.0000
Warren: 1.0000
Gravette: 1.0000
Joe T. Robinson: 1.0000
Hamburg: 1.0000
Gosnell: 1.0000
Stuttgart: 1.0000
Shiloh Christian: 1.0000
Dardanelle: 1.0000
Pea Ridge: 1.0000
Central Arkansas Christian: 1.0000
Ozark: 1.0000
Dumas: 1.0000
Batesville Southside: 1.0000
Trumann: 0.0000
Mena: 0.0000
Arkadelphia: 0.0000
Booneville: 0.0000
Crossett: 0.0000
West Helena Central: 0.0000
Dover: 0.0000
Ashdown: 0.0000
Pocahontas: 0.0000
Gravette: 0.0000
Highland: 0.0000
Huntsville: 0.0000
Jonesboro Westside: 0.0000
Monticello: 0.0000
Pottsville: 0.0000

Gravette's upset over Pocahontas was absolutely massive. Pocahontas was a 22-point favorite which wins 97.5% of the time. Clearly the 4A-1 is very strong. I'd also argue that the 4A-3 is even weaker than I thought (and I thought it was pretty weak). Other upsets were Batesville Southside over Booneville and Ozark over Gravette. I went 12/15 this round.

To Make Quarterfinals:
Heber Springs: 0.2078
Nashville: 0.8973
Prairie Grove: 0.8159
Warren: 0.7922
Gravette: 0.0547
Joe T. Robinson: 0.9750
Hamburg: 0.9453
Gosnell: 0.6398
Stuttgart: 0.2078
Shiloh Christian: 0.7922
Dardanelle: 0.7922
Pea Ridge: 0.1027
Central Arkansas Christian: 0.1841
Ozark: 0.3602
Dumas: 0.2078
Batesville Southside: <0.05

To Make Semifinals:
Heber Springs: 0.0844
Nashville: 0.8101
Prairie Grove: 0.6772
Warren: 0.2970
Gravette: <0.05
Joe T. Robinson: 0.6759
Hamburg: 0.1351
Gosnell: 0.1770
Stuttgart: <0.05
Shiloh Christian: 0.4994
Dardanelle: 0.3678
Pea Ridge: 0.0545
Central Arkansas Christian: 0.0879
Ozark: 0.0579
Dumas: <0.05

To Make Finals:
Heber Springs: <0.05
Nashville: 0.7512
Prairie Grove: 0.1940
Warren: 0.1987
Joe T. Robinson: 0.5718
Hamburg: 0.0766
Gosnell: <0.05
Shiloh Christian: 0.0893
Dardanelle: <0.05
Pea Ridge: <0.05
Central Arkansas Christian: <0.05
Ozark: <0.05

To Win State Championship:
Nashville: 0.5129
Prairie Grove: 0.0593
Warren: 0.0706
Joe T. Robinson: 0.2984
Hamburg: <0.05
Shiloh Christian: <0.05

[Big Fan]

PROJECTIONS BEFORE ROUND 2
After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Second Round:
Heber Springs: 1.0000
Nashville: 1.0000
Prairie Grove: 1.0000
Warren: 1.0000
Gravette: 1.0000
Joe T. Robinson: 1.0000
Hamburg: 1.0000
Gosnell: 1.0000
Stuttgart: 1.0000
Shiloh Christian: 1.0000
Dardanelle: 1.0000
Pea Ridge: 1.0000
Central Arkansas Christian: 1.0000
Ozark: 1.0000
Dumas: 1.0000
Batesville Southside: 1.0000
Trumann: 0.0000
Mena: 0.0000
Arkadelphia: 0.0000
Booneville: 0.0000
Crossett: 0.0000
West Helena Central: 0.0000
Dover: 0.0000
Ashdown: 0.0000
Pocahontas: 0.0000
Gravette: 0.0000
Highland: 0.0000
Huntsville: 0.0000
Jonesboro Westside: 0.0000
Monticello: 0.0000
Pottsville: 0.0000

Gravette's upset over Pocahontas was absolutely massive. Pocahontas was a 22-point favorite which wins 97.5% of the time. Clearly the 4A-1 is very strong. I'd also argue that the 4A-3 is even weaker than I thought (and I thought it was pretty weak). Other upsets were Batesville Southside over Booneville and Ozark over Gravette. I went 12/15 this round.

To Make Quarterfinals:
Heber Springs: 0.2078
Nashville: 0.8973
Prairie Grove: 0.8159
Warren: 0.7922
Gravette: 0.0547
Joe T. Robinson: 0.9750
Hamburg: 0.9453
Gosnell: 0.6398
Stuttgart: 0.2078
Shiloh Christian: 0.7922
Dardanelle: 0.7922
Pea Ridge: 0.1027
Central Arkansas Christian: 0.1841
Ozark: 0.3602
Dumas: 0.2078
Batesville Southside: <0.05

To Make Semifinals:
Heber Springs: 0.0844
Nashville: 0.8101
Prairie Grove: 0.6772
Warren: 0.2970
Gravette: <0.05
Joe T. Robinson: 0.6759
Hamburg: 0.1351
Gosnell: 0.1770
Stuttgart: <0.05
Shiloh Christian: 0.4994
Dardanelle: 0.3678
Pea Ridge: 0.0545
Central Arkansas Christian: 0.0879
Ozark: 0.0579
Dumas: <0.05

To Make Finals:
Heber Springs: <0.05
Nashville: 0.7512
Prairie Grove: 0.1940
Warren: 0.1987
Joe T. Robinson: 0.5718
Hamburg: 0.0766
Gosnell: <0.05
Shiloh Christian: 0.0893
Dardanelle: <0.05
Pea Ridge: <0.05
Central Arkansas Christian: <0.05
Ozark: <0.05

To Win State Championship:
Nashville: 0.5129
Prairie Grove: 0.0593
Warren: 0.0706
Joe T. Robinson: 0.2984
Hamburg: <0.05
Shiloh Christian: <0.05

What's the probability of you being a math nerd?  🙂

[HorseFeathers]

What's the probability of you being a math nerd?  🙂

And Hes managed to figure out a way to get paid to be one.....

[Big Fan]

And Hes managed to figure out a way to get paid to be one.....

So....you're saying he's a professional nerd. 

[WPWells]

Yes and proud of it...

[Big Fan]

Yes and proud of it...

Self-aware man...I like it.

[WPWells]

I love sports, my church, trivia, my family/close friends, and math. Everything else is secondary

[Big Fan]

I love sports, my church, trivia, my family/close friends, and math. Everything else is secondary

What about girls? 

[WPWells]

When I have a girlfriend/wife, she will be on the list

[Big Fan]

You

When I have a girlfriend/wife, she will be on the list

Lol...you're killing me...ok.

[WPWells]

PROJECTIONS BEFORE QUARTERFINALS
After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Second Round:
Heber Springs: 1.0000
Nashville: 1.0000
Prairie Grove: 1.0000
Warren: 1.0000
Gravette: 1.0000
Joe T. Robinson: 1.0000
Hamburg: 1.0000
Gosnell: 1.0000
Stuttgart: 1.0000
Shiloh Christian: 1.0000
Dardanelle: 1.0000
Pea Ridge: 1.0000
Central Arkansas Christian: 1.0000
Ozark: 1.0000
Dumas: 1.0000
Batesville Southside: 1.0000
Trumann: 0.0000
Mena: 0.0000
Arkadelphia: 0.0000
Booneville: 0.0000
Crossett: 0.0000
West Helena Central: 0.0000
Dover: 0.0000
Ashdown: 0.0000
Pocahontas: 0.0000
Gravette: 0.0000
Highland: 0.0000
Huntsville: 0.0000
Jonesboro Westside: 0.0000
Monticello: 0.0000
Pottsville: 0.0000

Gravette's upset over Pocahontas was absolutely massive. Pocahontas was a 22-point favorite which wins 97.5% of the time. Clearly the 4A-1 is very strong. I'd also argue that the 4A-3 is even weaker than I thought (and I thought it was pretty weak). Other upsets were Batesville Southside over Booneville and Ozark over Gravette. I went 12/15 this round.

To Make Quarterfinals:
Heber Springs: 0.0000
Nashville: 0.0000
Prairie Grove: 1.0000
Warren: 1.0000
Gravette: 0.0000
Joe T. Robinson: 1.0000
Hamburg: 1.0000
Gosnell: 1.0000
Stuttgart: 0.0000
Shiloh Christian: 1.0000
Dardanelle: 1.0000
Pea Ridge: 1.0000
Central Arkansas Christian: 0.0000
Ozark: 0.0000
Dumas: 0.0000
Batesville Southside: 0.0000

To Make Semifinals:
Prairie Grove: 0.8973
Warren: 0.2078
Joe T. Robinson: 0.7922
Hamburg: 0.3602
Gosnell: 0.1027
Shiloh Christian: 0.7922
Dardanelle: 0.2078
Pea Ridge: 0.6398

To Make Finals:
Prairie Grove: 0.4166
Warren: 0.0846
Joe T. Robinson: 0.4905
Hamburg: 0.1672
Gosnell: <0.05
Shiloh Christian: 0.3780
Dardanelle: 0.0546
Pea Ridge: 0.4002

To Win State Championship:
Prairie Grove: 0.2715
Warren: <0.05
Joe T. Robinson: 0.3946
Hamburg: <0.05
Shiloh Christian: 0.1111
Dardanelle: <0.05
Pea Ridge: 0.1304

[AirWarren]

0.0846.

We like being counted out.

[Lizard 47]

.0546

We totally agree

[WPWells]

PROJECTIONS BEFORE SEMIFINALS
After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Second Round:
Heber Springs: 1.0000
Nashville: 1.0000
Prairie Grove: 1.0000
Warren: 1.0000
Gravette: 1.0000
Joe T. Robinson: 1.0000
Hamburg: 1.0000
Gosnell: 1.0000
Stuttgart: 1.0000
Shiloh Christian: 1.0000
Dardanelle: 1.0000
Pea Ridge: 1.0000
Central Arkansas Christian: 1.0000
Ozark: 1.0000
Dumas: 1.0000
Batesville Southside: 1.0000
Trumann: 0.0000
Mena: 0.0000
Arkadelphia: 0.0000
Booneville: 0.0000
Crossett: 0.0000
West Helena Central: 0.0000
Dover: 0.0000
Ashdown: 0.0000
Pocahontas: 0.0000
Gravette: 0.0000
Highland: 0.0000
Huntsville: 0.0000
Jonesboro Westside: 0.0000
Monticello: 0.0000
Pottsville: 0.0000

Gravette's upset over Pocahontas was absolutely massive. Pocahontas was a 22-point favorite which wins 97.5% of the time. Clearly the 4A-1 is very strong. I'd also argue that the 4A-3 is even weaker than I thought (and I thought it was pretty weak). Other upsets were Batesville Southside over Booneville and Ozark over Gravette. I went 12/15 this round.

To Make Quarterfinals:
Heber Springs: 0.0000
Nashville: 0.0000
Prairie Grove: 1.0000
Warren: 1.0000
Gravette: 0.0000
Joe T. Robinson: 1.0000
Hamburg: 1.0000
Gosnell: 1.0000
Stuttgart: 0.0000
Shiloh Christian: 1.0000
Dardanelle: 1.0000
Pea Ridge: 1.0000
Central Arkansas Christian: 0.0000
Ozark: 0.0000
Dumas: 0.0000
Batesville Southside: 0.0000

To Make Semifinals:
Prairie Grove: 1.0000
Warren: 1.0000
Joe T. Robinson: 0.0000
Hamburg: 0.0000
Gosnell: 0.0000
Shiloh Christian: 1.0000
Dardanelle: 0.0000
Pea Ridge: 1.0000

To Make Finals:
Prairie Grove: 0.5818
Warren: 0.4182
Shiloh Christian: 0.5063
Pea Ridge: 0.4937

To Win State Championship:
Prairie Grove: 0.3722
Warren: 0.2433
Shiloh Christian: 0.1947
Pea Ridge: 0.1898

[AirWarren]

Continual underdog odds. We like that.

[prHOG13]

Interesting that Shiloh is a very slight favorite in your model

[WPWells]

Those odds for winning a game are for when a team is projected to win by an amount that rounds down to 0, so a virtual tie. Shiloh would be projected at a neutral site as well. Pea Ridge was a 3-point favorite before last week's dominant showing.

I'm personally taking Pea Ridge by 7

[JoshuaRug13]

Those odds for winning a game are for when a team is projected to win by an amount that rounds down to 0, so a virtual tie. Shiloh would be projected at a neutral site as well. Pea Ridge was a 3-point favorite before last week's dominant showing.

I'm personally taking Pea Ridge by 7

Except that Dardanelle is not that good so yep...

[WPWells]

Except that Dardanelle is not that good so yep...

You say that as if Hamburg is.

[Ole Legend]

You say that as if Hamburg is.

Hamburg would beat Dardanelle. Dardanelle has no secondary.

[WPWells]

Hamburg would beat Dardanelle. Dardanelle has no secondary.

Which is why a 12-point win over Hamburg looks similar to a blowout win over Dardanelle.

[JoshuaRug13]

Which is why a 12-point win over Hamburg looks similar to a blowout win over Dardanelle.

Okay so our huge win over the #1 team in the 4A has no weight all of the sudden?  Explain...

[WPWells]

It's no use. That only held weight in last week's update. That was a strong win, but it still had you behind three other 4A teams (Warren, PG, and Robinson) and only slightly jumped you ahead of Shiloh.

[Ole Legend]

It's no use. That only held weight in last week's update. That was a strong win, but it still had you behind three other 4A teams (Warren, PG, and Robinson) and only slightly jumped you ahead of Shiloh.

Do you just pull this out of your butt each week, or is there a method behind it?

[$aintMaximu$]

Do you just pull this out of your butt each week, or is there a method behind it?

He has a patented Fred Bird algorithm....  And please don't mention Fred Bird and do you pull this out of your butt again.... We don't want this thread to get all Ozark JV on us... Or do we?

[JoshuaRug13]

He has a patented Fred Bird algorithm....  And please don't mention Fred Bird and do you pull this out of your butt again.... We don't want this thread to get all Ozark JV on us... Or do we?

Can someone post a link to that thread so I can read about the glory of Ozark JV?  Thanks!

[WPWells]

Do you just pull this out of your butt each week, or is there a method behind it?

I'd be happy to send you my spreadsheet if you're interested. I spent a lot of time developing it, and I don't appreciate the assertion that I'm making this up.

[JoshuaRug13]

I'd be happy to send you my spreadsheet if you're interested. I spent a lot of time developing it, and I don't appreciate the assertion that I'm making this up.

What are your predictions for the Ozark JV team?

[WPWells]

Super Bowl champions at a 99% confidence level

[JoshuaRug13]

Super Bowl champions at a 99% confidence level

Yes!  I knew it!  Hillbillies are gonna beat the Cowboys BAD in the Super Bowl!