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WM's Doug McMillon says 1,000,000+ people in NWA within 15 years; Greenwood with 24,000+?

Started by OPoraquê, August 16, 2016, 12:22:20 pm

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OPoraquê

That could mean 14-15 (current) 7A size high schools in NWA alone (not counting FSM, which will grow as well and likely see someone beside NS, SS and VB in that category) by then (and with rough calculations, would mean over that period NWA will grow by an average of 91 people per day during that 15 year period).

That's a new "Bentonville West" coming this way every two years between now and 2031, if true.  :o

QuoteAt last week's Children's Hospital fundraising gala in Northwest Arkansas, Wal-Mart CEO Doug McMillon said the region is on pace to grow to more than 1 million residents over the next 15 years.

http://talkbusiness.net/2016/08/arkansas-childrens-ceo-says-nw-arkansas-poised-for-more-growth-shares-plans-for-additional-state-reach/



SUGARTOWN


ricepig

Quote from: SUGARTOWN on August 16, 2016, 01:25:17 pm
But Fayetteville will still only have one high school.   :D


They'll have an 8 story high school........

Lumberjackfan1978


beach bum

1,000,000 is a stretch and not likely.... However, I could see around 750,000-800,000. We should put the growth in perspective. Yes, NWA is growing and at roughly 513,000 people now. However, metro areas much larger are at the same or faster percentage growth rate and have WAY BIGGER populations so they see leaps in much bigger numbers. Houston, Dallas, Denver, and Orlando are growing at higher percentile rates than NWA. I think NWA compares very close to metropolitan areas like Durham/Chapel Hill, Provo, and Boise when it comes to metro areas with populations and percentage growth in generally close numbers. I enjoy seeing NWA grow, but to say 1,000,000 that quickly is quite a stretch.

Brian G

There is a litany of private and non-traditional schools popping up.

Plus the first Catholic High School is making serious progress in their fundraising.

When they measure NWA as a meto, they actually include just a bit over into Missouri and into Madison Co.  Personally, I wish it'd just stop growing.

DerekOxford

Quote from: B.G. on August 17, 2016, 09:44:20 pm
There is a litany of private and non-traditional schools popping up.

Plus the first Catholic High School is making serious progress in their fundraising.

When they measure NWA as a meto, they actually include just a bit over into Missouri and into Madison Co.  Personally, I wish it'd just stop growing.

Agreed. Our infrastructure can only handle so much. The more it grows, the more we get away from the identity that has made NWA what it is, and everything just becomes urban sprawl.

beach bum

Other things of note to hit the smaller classes and not just having more 7A schools in NWA is that in 6 to 10 years Pea Ridge, Prairie Grove, and Gravette will all be playing in what is the current 5A class. Elkins will be in 4A. Siloam Springs may potentially be one of the smaller 7A schools eventually. West Fork will never go back to 3A. Even Lincoln will move up to one of the bigger 4A schools. Farmington will become one of the bigger 5A schools. These are all more examples of how it will alter the playing field for all the schools in NWA in 10 or more years.

OPoraquê

If even the Bella Vista Bypass and the Arkansas River I-49 bridge projects are completed, look out.  Fort Smith will grow, too, according this SWTR article from Sunday...this projection below would put metro FSM in the 400,000 range, and put NWA/FSM at above 1,400,000, bigger than metro Memphis right now:

QuoteThe population of Fort Smith is projected to grow about 20 percent by the year 2040 for a total of more than 107,000 people, but Greenwood will outpace the region.

Using U.S. Census data and sources such as the Arkansas Municipal League and University of Arkansas at Little Rock, the Frontier Metropolitan Planning Organization estimates most communities in the region will also have a 1 percent annual increase over the next 20 years.

While Fort Smith will likely to continue being the most populated city in the four-county area, the largest population growth locally is expected to be seen at Greenwood with a 153 percent projected increase by the year 2040.

Greenwood, the southern Sebastian County seat, is projected to have a population of about 24,495 by the year 2040. It was 9,666 in 2015.

Tony Crockett, a Justice of the Peace for Greenwood in the Sebastian County Quorum Court, says Greenwood has shown steady growth in all directions, particularly north toward Fort Smith.

"I've been telling people for a long time that eventually you won't be able to tell where Greenwood ends and Fort Smith starts," Crockett said. "Fort Smith is growing south and east and Greenwood is going north so eventually they'll meet up."

Alma and Barling are expected to see the second- and third-most growth in the region, respectively. Alma, which lies on U.S. 64 east of Van Buren, is expected to increase in population over 80 percent: 5,600 in 2015 to a projected 10,259 in 2040.

http://www.swtimes.com/news/20160814/population-projections-show-greenwood-booming


Baitshop

When I-49 is complete, Fort Smith will explode. It will be at the corner of I-40 and I-49, in the center of the U.S. With access to rail and river, the proximity to major trucking lines (ABF, C. R. England, J. B. Hunt, USA Trucking, Jones Truck Lines etc.) it will be, perhaps, the single largest drop and ship hub (not attached to a sea or ocean) in the country. It will be central most drop point for shipped items arriving in the gulf ports for distribution east, west, and north.

I read a study several months ago that predicted that, after the completion of I-49, the River Valley will be one on the 5 fastest growing areas in the country, with a return of it's strong manufacturing base to take advantage of it's, now enhanced, ability to ship North, South, East, and West.

According to a couple of friends of mine on the FS Board of Directors and the Fort Chaffee Redevelopment Authority, east and south of Fort Smith is being gobbled up in huge chunks by investors in anticipation of the growth that will be facilitated by the completion of I-49.

AirWarren

Quote from: B.G. on August 17, 2016, 09:44:20 pm
There is a litany of private and non-traditional schools popping up.

Plus the first Catholic High School is making serious progress in their fundraising.

When they measure NWA as a meto, they actually include just a bit over into Missouri and into Madison Co.  Personally, I wish it'd just stop growing.

With growth, come growth pains. The more it grows, the more the "bedroom community" feel will fade.

Enjoy the good times. Little rock-north little rock-Maumelle-benton-Bryant-Cabot-Conway is growing like a weed too. But growing pains are here and it's evident. 

Places like Nwa and central Arkansas make me miss seark.

Pr8hd

GW can't handle the traffic as it is now, it can barely handle the traffic of 10k especially east of town, let alone for a population of  the projected 25k. The city better be looking more serious at the bypass that was discussed a few years back. It's actually needed now. Best decision we ever made was not to build in the east part of town. Not that there's anything wrong with the east part, it's just that part can't handle the one lane traffic thru town down Hwy 10 especially when schools are in session.

OPoraquê

What Baitshop said above:

(NWA will be in the middle, FSM just beneath the middle of the I-49 corridor "hourglass"):

and the interactive map on this page:  http://beta.fortune.com/fortune500/visualizations/?iid=recirc_f500landing-zone1

NWA/FSM (the media market) won't ever be D/FW, but if this comes to pass (no real reason that it shouldn't...the two Arkansas metros combined are now about 3/5 of the way to 1,400,000 in combined future population as predicted by McMillon and the SWTR above) we may have conservatively 20 current Arkansas 7A schools between the two:

7 future high schools (at least) to accommodate the new kids
FHS
BHS
BWHS
RHS
RHHS
SHS
SHBHS
SS
NS
VB
Greenwood (probably)
Alma (likely)
Siloam Springs (likely)

God Himself only knows what that means for the future competition, talent pool, etc.

ricepig

We'll all be dead and long gone by the time I-49 goes south to Texarkana.

Okieback

Nah, I bet it's there within 15....

And just a reminder 3 interstates go through Oklahoma
City ....

OPoraquê

Quote from: ricepig on August 18, 2016, 01:20:46 pm
We'll all be dead and long gone by the time I-49 goes south to Texarkana.

That's still likely.  Yet 20 or 30 years ago a completed Arkansas I-49 would have been a pipe dream.  Now (for better or worse), it's quite foolish for those involved in Arkansas government not to think about it.

ricepig

Quote from: OPoraquê on August 18, 2016, 04:03:06 pm
That's still likely.  Yet 20 or 30 years ago a completed Arkansas I-49 would have been a pipe dream.  Now (for better or worse), it's quite foolish for those involved in Arkansas government not to think about it.

Thinking doesn't cost money, and the Federal Highway Trust fund doesn't have the money these days. My guess, if it's built in the next 15 years, it will be a Toll road.

OPoraquê

Quote from: ricepig on August 18, 2016, 04:17:24 pm
Thinking doesn't cost money, and the Federal Highway Trust fund doesn't have the money these days. My guess, if it's built in the next 15 years, it will be a Toll road.

Agreed.  Sad that the road wasn't thought about earlier, though...(then again, Texas didn't think, either, to build an interstate from Brownsville to Houston to Texarkana as it's doing now in I-69).

AirWarren



OPoraquê

Quote from: ricepig on August 18, 2016, 01:20:46 pm
We'll all be dead and long gone by the time I-49 goes south to Texarkana.

According to this Talk Business article today, the Fort Chaffee land director says some of us may get to drive the I-49 Arkansas River Bridge (one of the "three Bs" (Bella Vista Bypass, Bridge over the Arkansas River, the Big One/Texarkana-to-Greenwood section)) in 10 years, though.  :) :

QuoteBRIDGE, HIGHWAY UPDATES
Owen offered updates on the I-49 bridge and the relocation of Highway 255 to Frontier Road as well as the widening of Frontier to five lanes. Concerning the I-49 bridge over the Arkansas River, Owen said engineering on the estimated $350 million project has been approved.

"The Highway Department has a policy that once they start the engineering on a project, they will complete it within 10 years, so some of the people in this room will be driving on that bridge in 10 years, and we couldn't have said that three or four years ago,"
Owen revealed to the Board. "It's still at the top of the Governor's priority list to get that done. That's one thing that spearheaded this along, and our Highway Commissioner has been right on top of it."

http://talkbusiness.net/2016/08/fcra-approves-high-volume-of-extensions-with-once-promised-large-shopping-center-project-in-limbo/


x14113

Quote from: beach bum on August 17, 2016, 09:58:47 pm
West Fork will never go back to 3A.

The ADE's enrollment figures would like to have a word with you.

And on that note, I wonder where NWA's tendrils of growth may lead. WF, Greenland, and Decatur don't seem to benefit...but in neighboring Carroll County, both Berryville and Green Forest are threatening a move up.

Regardless of who or how, The landscape of NWA football will be drastically different within the decade.

Texas

Fascinating topic. I go to Fort Smith a lot for work. Fort to Fort. Worth to Smith. I sure wish the idiots in OKC would allow a real Interstate in Eastern OK between the Texas border and Tulsa. Sure would make things easier to get up to I-40 to head east to FSM.

AHS06

Quote from: ricepig on August 18, 2016, 01:20:46 pm
We'll all be dead and long gone by the time I-49 goes south to Texarkana.
It is already completed in the Texarkana area.  The stretch completed from Texarkana to Shreveport is great!  Now we just need to finish Ashdown to Fort Smith.

ricepig

Quote from: AHS06 on August 23, 2016, 12:14:59 pm
It is already completed in the Texarkana area.  The stretch completed from Texarkana to Shreveport is great!  Now we just need to finish Ashdown to Fort Smith.

Is that all?? It will take $1.6B to build those 160 miles, good luck!

AirWarren

The 530 south project from pine bluff to wilmar(between warren and Monticello) has stalled out as well. The paved roads is just a nice highway. Not interstate.

HorseFeathers


ricepig

Quote from: HorseFeathers on August 23, 2016, 06:02:20 pm
You shorted it by about a Billion....

Well, the going rate is $10m a mile for an interstate through rural mountainous terrain, but yeah, it would cost the other billion by the time it would be finished.

AB™

Quote from: Pr8hd on August 18, 2016, 12:16:34 pm
GW can't handle the traffic as it is now for nearly 25k, it can barely handle the traffic of 10k especially east of town. The city better be looking more serious at the bypass that was discussed a few years back. It's actually needed now. Best decision we ever made was not to build in the east part of town. Not that there's anything wrong with the east part, it's just that part can't handle the one lane traffic thru town down Hwy 10 especially when schools are in session.
This.  Greenwood's infrastructure has needed a major overhaul for a good while, now.  Driving through Greenwood is a nightmare, especially from about 7-9 a.m. and 4-6 p.m.  My in-laws live on the far side of Greenwood (not too far past Keith Glass Auto) and if my wife and I try to go to their house at the wrong time of day, it can take 15-20 minutes to drive the 4-5 miles to their house.  As great of a town as Greenwood is, and as great as their school district it, my wife and I have zero desire to live there with it's current configuration.  The problem is, there isn't an easy fix.  I may be wrong, but I don't think there is enough room on either side of the road to widen Hwy 10 and make it a four lane highway without making it a major inconvenience to a lot of people.

Pr8hd

Quote from: AB™ on August 26, 2016, 01:59:35 pm
This.  Greenwood's infrastructure has needed a major overhaul for a good while, now.  Driving through Greenwood is a nightmare, especially from about 7-9 a.m. and 4-6 p.m.  My in-laws live on the far side of Greenwood (not too far past Keith Glass Auto) and if my wife and I try to go to their house at the wrong time of day, it can take 15-20 minutes to drive the 4-5 miles to their house.  As great of a town as Greenwood is, and as great as their school district it, my wife and I have zero desire to live there with it's current configuration.  The problem is, there isn't an easy fix.  I may be wrong, but I don't think there is enough room on either side of the road to widen Hwy 10 and make it a four lane highway without making it a major inconvenience to a lot of people.

Hwy 96 is your best friend if trying to get out that way during that time of day if coming from FS/Crawford County, but even that can be a problem if you have to turn left from there to go east. We used to live out in that area out  by the golf course and I was fortunate I could go Hwy 96 to/from work in VB. This is why the developments like Williamson Place, Riley Farm, Ridgewood, etc. are appealing - GW schools, proximity to FS, and although traffic, not like the one lane version you deal with thru the actual town. Plus, you have a couple of options to come south into GW (when you have to) that lets you avoid some traffic.

They will have to do something for sure because in addition to the growth, they are also talking about putting in a new boys/girls club sports complex out east with multiple baseball/softball fields, soccer fields, etc. which is sorely needed, as well. IMO GW's current Boys/Girls club fields are not up to par compared with other communities and the standards of those available for 7th-12th grade.   

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