3A State Tournament Bracketology

[#EagleStrong]

I'm hardly Joe Lunardi, but taking a look at the conference standings and the tournament bracket from the AHSAA, I've tried to compile a projected state tournament bracket, which I intend to update regularly as results roll in. Now, this is always tricky business. Regional match-ups are tough to predict, especially as isolated as most of us are. I know a lot about Region 1, but only a little about Region 4. So, I'm depending on you, the community, to help keep this bracket updated and reasonably accurate. I'll post any issues I've run into with determining the field of 16 for your discussion. Try to keep it civil, especially if you don't see your school listed. Remember, the best 16 teams don't always make the tournament. Thanks.


State Tournament at Cossatot River High School
Projected Field of 16

First Round Games

Game 1 (Tuesday 2:30)
McGehee Owls
vs
Marshall Bobcats

Game 5 (Wednesday 5:30)
Paris Eagles
vs
Mayflower Eagles

Game 2 (Tuesday 5:30)
Flippin Bobcats
vs
Cossatot River Eagles

Game 6 (Wednesday 8:30)
Cedar Ridge Timberwolves
vs
Two Rivers Gators

Game 3 (Tuesday 8:30)
Episcopal Collegiate Wildcats
vs
Lamar Warriors

Game 7 (Thursday 2:30)
Centerpoint Knights
vs
Valley Springs Tigers

Game 4 (TBA)
Charleston Tigers
vs
Marianna Lee Trojans

Game 8 (Thursday 5:30)
Rivercrest Colts
vs
Smackover Buckaroos


Projected Seeding

Region 1
1. Charleston
2. Paris
3. Two Rivers
4. Lamar

Region 2
1. Episcopal Collegiate
2. Cedar Ridge
3. Mayflower
4. Marianna Lee

Region 3
1. Flippin
2. Rivercrest
3. Valley Springs
4. Marshall

Region 4
1. McGehee
2. Centerpoint
3. Smackover
4. Cossatot River

[#EagleStrong]

Let's get this out of the way first.

I left out Jessieville and Benton-Harmony Grove and put in Marianna Lee.

It has to do with that region, which is easily the toughest of the four regions. I hesitantly picked Marianna Lee over Jessieville in the first round of regionals. That may change the more info I get. Very little conviction with that pick. BHG I projected as a 4-seed losing to Cedar Ridge in the first round of regionals.

I left out Prescott also in favor of Smackover. I'll admit that Region 4 is the one I know the least about. I picked Smackover over Prescott in the first round of regionals. Tough call to me. Prescott was projected as a 3-seed behind Centerpoint and Cossatot River in their conference.

Notable Teams Left Out:
Benton-Harmony Grove
Jessieville
Prescott
Osceola
Harding Academy
West Fork
Lavaca
Danville

[WPWells]

Could you denote how you seeded each team for those of us that are on smartphones and can't easily pull up brackets?

[#EagleStrong]

Sure, I'll actually go ahead and list that in the main post. Charleston #1 in Region 1 FYI.

Edit: OK it's on the main post now.

[WPWells]

Appreciate it! I think I could more or less fill them in myself, but I just want to be certain that I don't make a mistake when I'm looking over it

How do you determine something like that? Since Charleston and Paris are tied for the conference lead, why did you seed Charleston ahead of Paris? (Not saying you're wrong, just curious as to what your method was! I appreciate you taking the time to do that and from what I saw you appear to have done a very good job)

[#EagleStrong]

Because I'm not a shameless homer and couldn't justifiably put Paris ahead because of the head-to-head. Of course, it's likely that Charleston and Paris will play three more times (at Charleston, District at Paris, Regionals at Danville), and that's difficult to project, but you have to assume that if Charleston can beat Paris at Paris, then they can do it on a neutral court.

[#EagleStrong]

I took the standings as I was aware of them from each conference, predicted their regional tournaments as best as I could, then filled in the bracket. Region 2 is absolutely brutal.

[WPWells]

Looking at that bracket, I'd just say that it doesn't appear that Charleston or ECS would face a whole lot of opposition until they met in the semis. I'd say the most intriguing first-round game would be Cedar Ridge-Two Rivers and then Paris-McGehee and Cedar Ridge-Flippin would both be great second round game

Side note: that Cedar Ridge-ECS (potential) regional final could be one for the ages

[#EagleStrong]

I'd say the most intriguing first-round game would be Cedar Ridge-Two Rivers and then Paris-McGehee and Cedar Ridge-Flippin would both be great second round game

Yeah, but I will say that Paris and McGehee could both easily lose their first round games to Mayflower and Valley Springs, respectively.

[WPWells]

It could happen, but I would say it's unlikely. Paris probably has a better opponent than McGehee, but from what I've seen the past couple years I also think Paris is probably a better team than McGehee

[jr17]

Yes! Being a mayflower fan it looks like I get to see some good teams. Cedar Ridge in the regions. Possibly Paris in the first round! Gonna be some good basketball to watch!

[neds]

I see Jessieville in , not out. They will come to regionals battle tested like last year. Marianna Lee is capable , but on a neutral court the discipline of Jessieville wins.

I also think/see the Cedar Ridge vs Episcopal match up determining the state champion - since we are predicting.

[#EagleStrong]

I see Jessieville in , not out. They will come to regionals battle tested like last year. Marianna Lee is capable , but on a neutral court the discipline of Jessieville wins.

I also think see the Cedar Ridge vs Episcopal match up determining the state champion - since we are predicting.

Jessieville-Marianna Lee and Smackover-Prescott were definitely the hardest regional match-ups for me to predict. I waffled on Jessieville and Marianna Lee a lot before picking ML. Going by the results, both have been inconsistent at times this season. Of course that match-up may not even happen. I'm going to have an itchy trigger finger on swapping that one depending on what kind of input I receive and results that come in.

And CR-ECS certainly seems like the likely title game, although CR will have some potentially tough match-ups on their side of the bracket, especially considering they could draw Flippin in the second round.

[neds]

Nice work by the way

[oldtimer]

I see a bunch of upsets in region. This will change the brackets.

[#EagleStrong]

I see a bunch of upsets in region. This will change the brackets.

There always are. If I get this right, the first thing I'm going to do is go out and buy a lottery ticket.

[oldtimer]

good luck, just a good bet.l

[#EagleStrong]

On a related note, in my neck of the woods, the Lamar-Danville match-up at just the district tournament is highly intriguing and will probably determine a state tournament since I believe either would be favored over Lavaca or West Fork. Very tough game to call.

[oldtimer]

Flippin is the favorite in our conference, the rest is undecided.

[Radiotalker]

I see Jessieville in , not out. They will come to regionals battle tested like last year. Marianna Lee is capable , but on a neutral court the discipline of Jessieville wins.

I also think see the Cedar Ridge vs Episcopal match up determining the state champion - since we are predicting.

I agree

[Radiotalker]

There is no way the 3 - 3A will be dominated like you show in the Regionals.....no way.

[neds]

There is no way the 3 - 3A will be dominated like you show in the Regionals.....no way.

Rivercrest appears to be the only team that has been consistent this year out of 3A 3. Osceola started well , but it sounds like they have lost some players and dropped off a bit. That conf seems down this year , especially with Earle gone

[WPWells]

neds, your statement about whoever wins CR-ECS will win state is interesting to me. What makes you believe that a regional final will determine the state champion. They would each still have to win 4 games at the state tournament

[BigMan15]

I think the upper bracket seems to have a little easier road..imo charleston vs rivercrest 2nd round would a good one...heck mayflower paris first round is a great matchup

[neds]

neds, your statement about whoever wins CR-ECS will win state is interesting to me. What makes you believe that a regional final will determine the state champion. They would each still have to win 4 games at the state tournament

I am not saying the regional final will decide anything. My feeling, at this point in the season, is that these two are the best two teams. So, I see them meeting in the state final. The fact that they are in the same region most probably puts them in opposite brackets at state.

[WPWells]

Oh okay! I misunderstood your statement

[BigMan15]

If it was set up like this i would say

Semi Finals
Rivercrest
ECS

Paris
Flippin/Cedar Ridge

[WPWells]

Charleston wouldn't lose to Rivercrest

[pioneers]

Charleston wouldn't lose to Rivercrest

I didn't think they would lose to Lamar either but that's the good thing about high school basketball anything can happen on any night. I wouldn't think charleston would lose to rivercrest but you never know what each game holds on how each team will play.

[WPWells]

Anyone who's never played on Lamar's home court would be in for a shock. It's a REALLY hard place to play

[ISU7]

Charleston wouldn't lose to Rivercrest

[neds]

There are tough places to play in every conference. For 3A 5 it has always been Garland county, whether it was Fountain Lake or Jessieville it just seemed like the whistle blew a certain way. You know it going in and you try to adjust the way you play to minimize those differences.

[BigMan15]

Charleston wouldn't lose to Rivercrest

I dont think ctown matches up well with rivercrest..i wouldnt want to play them..as far as paris goes every game would be a tough game..Cedar Ridge and Flippin would be a epic game..

[#EagleStrong]

There are tough places to play in every conference. For 3A 5 it has always been Garland county, whether it was Fountain Lake or Jessieville it just seemed like the whistle blew a certain way. You know it going in and you try to adjust the way you play to minimize those differences.

That's true. But I can tell you Lamar is unbelievably hard to play at. I've witnessed it as a fan at Paris. I played for a different school in high school though, and I always hated playing there. Never won there. Not even once. And my junior and senior year teams combined for 67 wins. It's just a really tough road environment.

[#EagleStrong]

I would say my next 4 in are:
Jessieville
Danville
Prescott
Harding Academy

Pretty much in that order. Let me explain the absence of BHG a little further: Whichever team finishes fourth in that conference will be left out in my bracket, since I can't bring myself to pick them over Cedar Ridge in the first round if regionals. For the record, I think BHG is better than a few of the teams I put in, but they really need to pull themselves up from 4th place in that conference. Beating the Mayflower-Jessieville loser at district, assuming things play out as that are now, would fix things for them, as I would take them over Harding Academy or Marianna Lee. Still, one way or the other there are going to be a couple of good teams left out of that region. In many ways, the first round of that regional tournament will be aced facto opening round for the state tournament.

[#EagleStrong]

I've added a Bracketology games section to the main post highlighting upcoming games with bracket significance and what consequences they may have.

[jr17]

Is lamar hard to play at because of home cokking? Or hostile fans?

[WPWells]

Part home cooking (only slight though), part hostile fans, part just intangibles

[Longfellow]

Fans really hostile on occasion

[BigMan15]

Paris plays there tuesday..if they win 15+ i would say charleston is in some trouble this year..

[fbisgreat]

I think CHS is in touble this year but it is never good to compare scores.If Paris wins by 15 good for them. but  that don't mean there going to beat Chs just because they beat Lamar bad.

[WPWells]

If Charleston is in trouble then where is Paris? Seems like you've forgotten who exactly beat who that Friday night

[jr17]

Mayflower closes the season out at lamar. Should be interesting.

[chuckBB]

Paris plays there tuesday..if they win 15+ i would say charleston is in some trouble this year..

Good thing County Line is not in our conference then....

[BigMan15]

Im glad scranton isnt either...i was just saying chs was complaining saying how its hard to play at lamar...just like they said at danville was tough..not for paris..yes we lost at home to chs...we will have a chance at charleston to possibly win the conference...i like those odds..if taylor is playing then its another 1-5 point game..without taylor i say paris by 10.

[#EagleStrong]

Please, PLEASE do not let this thread devolve into yet another Paris-Charleston shouting match. Take it elsewhere. I'd like for people from around the state to discuss and give their input on this thread without having to sift through the vitriol. Thanks.

[HorseFeathers]

Please, PLEASE do not let this thread devolve into yet another Paris-Charleston shouting match. Take it elsewhere. I'd like for people from around the state to discuss and give their input on this thread without having to sift through the vitriol. Thanks.

+1 for every day left in the season for this thread... It's nice to see people put some time and thought into a thread

[WPWells]

Agreed with both. Awesome work #EagleStrong

[HorseFeathers]

Also want to add....if it does devolve into a shouting match between Charleston and Paris, I'll delete those posts...You guys have a conference standings thread, plus a game thread to do that in...

[neds]

Thanks to both of you