Fred Bird's Probability Model - 3A

[WPWells]

PROJECTIONS BEFORE ROUND 1
After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Second Round:
Charleston: 1.0000
Bald Knob: 1.0000
Fordyce: 1.0000
Prescott: 1.0000
Atkins: 0.9750
Harding Academy: 0.9750
Glen Rose: 0.9453
Smackover: 0.8973
Junction City: 0.8973
Newport: 0.8159
Rivercrest: 0.7922
Elkins: 0.7922
Centerpoint: 0.6398
Paris: 0.5818
Piggott: 0.5818
Mountain View: 0.5818
Walnut Ridge: 0.4182
Cedar Ridge: 0.4182
Haskell Harmony Grove: 0.4182
Clinton: 0.3602
Barton: 0.2078
Jessieville: 0.2078
Mayflower: 0.1841
Melbourne: 0.1027
Manila: 0.1027
Fouke: 0.0547
Perryville: <0.05
Lake Village: <0.05
Greenland: <0.05
Lamar: <0.05

To Make Quarterfinals:
Prescott: 0.9813
Fordyce: 0.8973
Charleston: 0.8338
Glen Rose: 0.8025
Bald Knob: 0.6576
Junction City: 0.6412
Harding Academy: 0.6239
Atkins: 0.3793
Mountain View: 0.3773
Newport: 0.3563
Rivercrest: 0.3225
Centerpoint: 0.2676
Haskell Harmony Grove: 0.2474
Elkins: 0.1812
Smackover: 0.1652
Clinton: 0.0749
Paris: 0.0598
Melbourne: <0.05
Barton: <0.05
Manila: <0.05
Fouke: <0.05
Jessieville: <0.05
Walnut Ridge: <0.05
Cedar Ridge: <0.05
Piggott: <0.05
Mayflower

To Make Semifinals:
Prescott: 0.7964
Glen Rose: 0.7089
Charleston: 0.4499
Harding Academy: 0.3873
Bald Knob: 0.3669
Fordyce: 0.1982
Newport: 0.1863
Mountain View: 0.1842
Junction City: 0.1498
Atkins: 0.1491
Centerpoint: 0.1286
Elkins: 0.1140
Haskell Harmony Grove: 0.0973
Smackover: <0.05
Clinton: <0.05
Rivercrest: <0.05

To Make Finals:
Prescott: 0.7551
Glen Rose: 0.4762
Charleston: 0.2201
Bald Knob: 0.1795
Fordyce: 0.1630
Centerpoint: <0.05
Junction City: <0.05
Elkins: <0.05
Mountain View: <0.05
Haskell Harmony Grove: <0.05
Atkins: <0.05
Harding Academy: <0.05
Newport: <0.05

To Win State Championship:
Prescott: 0.5460
Glen Rose: 0.2394
Charleston: 0.0717
Fordyce: 0.0707
Bald Knob: 0.0585

[WPWells]

I'll do future rounds as I have time. Future rounds take longer since there are more associated probabilities. If you have a question about my method I'd be happy to answer on this thread or by PM.

[Head Lion]

Fred, putting some of that fine education to work?

[WPWells]

Fred, putting some of that fine education to work?

Statistics is my passion and just so happens to also be my major!

[cdelaney]

Statistics is my passion and just so happens to also be my major!

What are the odds of that?

[WPWells]

Updated with quarterfinal projections and start of semifinal projections

[WPWells]

Updated through semifinal projections.

[WPWells]

I will update this after week 10 to reflect the actual bracket.

[The Dynasty]

Updated through semifinal projections.

So you are saying Mountain View has a chance?!?!

[WPWells]

That they do! Numbers don't lie

[The Dynasty]

That they do! Numbers don't lie

If the playoffs started today that bottom half of the right side of the bracket is pretty weak.

[beach bum]

If the playoffs started today that bottom half of the right side of the bracket is pretty weak.

Yes, it is. There are 4 of the 8 teams that could actually get all the way to the semifinals because of that. The second round games and the quarterfinal games will be tight in that quadrant.

[WPWells]

I'm still working my way through it, but I'm interested to see how many teams have a statistically significant chance of winning state

By the way, for the non-math people, I'm eliminating teams at the <0.01 level because that means their probability of making that round is <1%

[The Dynasty]

I'm still working my way through it, but I'm interested to see how many teams have a statistically significant chance of winning state

By the way, for the non-math people, I'm eliminating teams at the <0.01 level because that means their probability of making that round is <1%

Does this take into account who these teams have left to play or is it strictly by the way the standings are as of today?

[WPWells]

It's strictly by today's projected bracket. I'll make an actual model when the final bracket comes out. If time permits, I'll build an actual model where you can manipulate and see each team's chances based on results (i.e. type in a Smackover win over Green Forest and see how that affects the overall probabilities of each team).

[Coltfan2005]

Numbers may not lie, but Osceola won't even make the playoffs.

[The Dynasty]

It's strictly by today's projected bracket. I'll make an actual model when the final bracket comes out. If time permits, I'll build an actual model where you can manipulate and see each team's chances based on results (i.e. type in a Smackover win over Green Forest and see how that affects the overall probabilities of each team).

Very nice. Thanks Fred.

[WPWells]

This is strictly based on HF's projected bracket which uses current standings. I'll update it once the actual bracket comes out

[WPWells]

I just thought of a shortcut to make that model, so that will be out soon!

[adaptedtigerfan]

You are thinking too much, Fred.

[The Dynasty]

You are thinking too much, Fred.

Is that County Line's school moto?

"Don't ever think too much...."

CLHS Class of '00

[adaptedtigerfan]

😂

[WPWells]

I'll be slightly delayed in finishing the rest of the tree due to the fact that I'm making a beautiful model that anyone can use

[MynameisJeff]

Once again Mtn View Pound Puppies are at the top second to Prescott curly fries and junction city komodo's & Charleston kitty's

[Proud Buckaroo]

Once again Mtn View Pound Puppies are at the top second to Prescott curly fries and junction city komodo's & Charleston kitty's

You have a 38% chance of making semi finals. Do you not realize how low that is? Lolllllll.

[Wonderdog]

You have a 38% chance of making semi finals. Do you not realize how low that is? Lolllllll.

However, only two teams currently have better odds......apparently better than Smackover "statistically" at this point.

[Proud Buckaroo]

However, only two teams currently have better odds......apparently better than Smackover "statistically" at this point.

That's because AS PROJECTIONS stand today.. Smackover would be 3rd seed and face Charleston. If were projected 1 or 2 seed. Ours would be higher.

[nastynice]

Fred has put that abacus in overtime!  Somewhere Jeffy is walking around bobbing his head, smiling like a Cheshire Cat!

[WPWells]

They don't have "the best" chance as he claimed

[Jimbo Morphis]

Statistics is my passion and just so happens to also be my major!

You need a girlfriend.

[OLDSCHOOL82]

^ Oldman, he gets touchy on that subject!

[WPWells]

Nah, I do need a life though.

[WPWells]

Model is made - now I just have to run a bunch of Calpreps projections to fill in the current tree

[MynameisJeff]

Jeffy will be listening to the game from South Carolina tonight on Kwoz 103.3.

[WPWells]

Everything updated and numbers corrected through the semifinals. I'll do the finals and state championship now. As you can see, there are only 23 teams left with a statistically significant chance of even making the semifinals

[HorseFeathers]

Everything updated and numbers corrected through the semifinals. I'll do the finals and state championship now. As you can see, there are only 23 teams left with a statistically significant chance of even making the semifinals

Without looking at your numbers...23 seems a bit high as it is half of the class...

[nastynice]

One things for sure. None of us are smart enough to double check Fred for mistakes!

[WPWells]

Without looking at your numbers...23 seems a bit high as it is half of the class...

Statistically significant means that there's not enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis, with the null hypothesis being that they WON'T make the semifinals. Of course, it would be a shock to see someone like Paris make the semifinals, but at this point based on their draw, it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility.

Expect the number of teams with a chance to make the finals to be significantly lower (closer to 15) and the number of teams with a chance to win it all to be 7 or 8

[CoolBreeze]

Statistically significant means that there's not enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis, with the null hypothesis being that they WON'T make the semifinals. Of course, it would be a shock to see someone like Paris make the semifinals, but at this point based on their draw, it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility.

Expect the number of teams with a chance to make the finals to be significantly lower (closer to 15) and the number of teams with a chance to win it all to be 7 or 8

I passed through Paris today and saw a sign that read something like. "Go Paris Eagles. Win 3A State." Hope springs eternal.

[OLDSCHOOL82]

^ Was more than likely for volley ball.

[CoolBreeze]

^ Was more than likely for volley ball.

Didn't say Lady Eagles.

[Wonderdog]

That's because AS PROJECTIONS stand today.. Smackover would be 3rd seed and face Charleston. If were projected 1 or 2 seed. Ours would be higher.

I guess you missed the last three words of my quote.

[cdelaney]

I'll be slightly delayed in finishing the rest of the tree due to the fact that I'm making a beautiful model that anyone can use

For a second I thought you said you were DATING a beautiful model. Too bad.

[WPWells]

The model has been updated. I will post other classes tomorrow.

[nastynice]

Just like ALL the election polls, numbers do lie!

Unless Chuck has a major injury bug hit, they will walk through everyone!

100% Chance of a championship!

RIP PC world! 

[Jimbo Morphis]

What coach said "statistics are for losers?"

[WPWells]

What coach said "statistics are for losers?"

At the end of the day, this more or less shows how many teams have a real chance to make each round. The numbers will shift depending on who wins each game and by how much.

[nastynice]

What coach said "statistics are for losers?"

Mt Views I think.

[SR30]

No Mt views Coach would be " conference championship " are for losers

[rayzorbackfan]

No Mt views Coach would be " conference championship " are for losers

No Mt Views Coach would be saying everybody gets a trophy.