Predicting the New Conferences

[Ice Water]

Following the passing of the new proposal, I thought I'd take a shot at predicting the next cycle's conferences. I believe 3A will contain the 65 schools listed below. I used the structure that requires 8 leagues and each league must contain 7, 8, or 9 schools. This was a little smoother than my attempt at 1A, but not as easy as 2A. Below is the best I could settle on. Let me hear what you would do differently.

Northwest: Lincoln, Greenland, West Fork, Elkins, Green Forest, Bergman, Valley Springs

West: Cedarville, Mansfield, Waldron, Charleston, Booneville, Paris, Lamar, Atkins, Two Rivers

North Central: Marshall, Mtn View, Clinton, Rose Bud, Mayflower, Riverview, Harding, Bald Knob, Lighthouse

Northeast Ridge: Cave City, Cedar Ridge, Newport, Tuckerman, Hoxie, Walnut Ridge, Corning, Piggot

Northeast Delta: Harrisonburg, Trumann, Manila, Gosnell, Rivercrest, Osceola, Palestine

Central: Perryville, Baptist, CAC, Lisa, Episcopal, Harmony Grove, Glen Rose, Fountian Lake, Jessieville

Southwest: Cossatot, Centerpoint, Bismarck, Prescott, Ashdown, Genoa, Fouke, Smackover

Southeast: Dollarway, Rison, Dewitt, Helena, Dumas, Drew Central, McGehee, Lakeside

[bobcats]

Episcopal will be in the central.  Piggott and Corning will stay in the 3.  Palestine could go in 3 different directions.  I expect them to keep the 1-E to stay together and send the West schools down I-49 as that is a much easier drive than 412/62 late at night.  I would put the private/charter schools all together which would help with the complaining from the traditional public schools.  Baptist, ECS and lighthouse are loaded so they might as well fight each other.

[bobcats]

Episcopal will be in the central.  Piggott and Corning will stay in the 3.  Palestine could go in 3 different directions.  I expect the 1-E to stay together and send the West schools down I-49 as that is a much easier drive than 412/62 late at night.  I would put the private/charter schools all together which would help with the complaining from the traditional public schools.  Baptist, ECS and lighthouse are loaded so they might as well fight each other.

[Ice Water]

Bobcats, that sounds great on the surface, but good luck making that all work with 8 leagues of 7-9 schools.

[bobcats]

Here's my attempt.

1W - Greenland, Lincoln, Elkins, WF, Cedarville, Mansfield, Waldron, Charleston, Booneville.

1E - Bergman, Valley, Green Forest, Marshall, Clinton, Mountain View, Cave City.

2 - Rose Bud, Harding, Riverview, Cedar Ridge, Newport, Hoxie, Walnut Ridge, Bald Knob, Tuckerman.

3 - Manila, Truman, Harrisburg, Osceola, Corning, Piggott,Gosnell, Rivercrest.

4 - Paris, Lamar, Atkins, Two Rivers, Perryville, Mayflower, Jessieville, Fountain Lake.

5 - Glen Rose, Harmony Grove, Episcopal, Baptist, Lisa, Palestine, Lighthouse, CAC

6 - Bismark, Centerpoint, Genoa, Prescott, Smackover, Fouke, Ashdown, Cossatot.

7 - Central West Helena, Dumas, Dewitt, Dollarway, McGhee, Drew Central, Lakeside-LV, Rison.

This retains the current conference setup as well as most schools stay in their current conferences.

Comments?

[Ice Water]

Junction City's numbers were adjusted since the first release, and they will be 2A. And though we can't be 100% sure where the AAA will draw the dividing lines, I think Tuckerman and Cossatot will be 3A. I know that's a little different than the list of 64 schools I posted a few months back when the numbers first released. I'm curious to see your groupings with this edit.

Your list also made me notice an error of mine. I had forgotten Rison and mistaking included Dover. I've edited my original post to reflect this, and it actually allows Episcopal to move back to the Central.

[bobcats]

Revised with the changes. The 2 now has 9 teams.  Rose Bud could move to the 1E to make both 8 teams, but the trip to Green Forest, and Bergman would be a couple hours each way.  They may perfer to be in a 9 team league.  I would give them the choice.

[bobcats]

I would set the region's up as 1W-1E as region1. 2 and 3 as region 2, 4 and 5 as region 3 and 6 and 7 as region 4.

[Ice Water]

Alright bobcats, here's the things I like on your take:
- Desire to keep traditional conferences intact
- We're in agreement on the two south leagues

And where I see issues:
- Cave City. The trip from CC to GF in addition to Bergman and VS is cruel. When CC was in that league previously, GF was not. And there were many schools in between CC and Bergman/VS that are no longer 3A. Salem, Flippin, Yellville, & Cotter kind of connected those schools. While I like your desire to keep Bergman/VS linked with Marshall, I'm not sure it's worth it at such expense.
- Mayflower. Mayflower to the River Valley is no problem. But Mayflower to the River Valley and Jessieville/FtnLake creates issues. Mayflower would have to drive through the LR schools and HHG to get to Jessieville/FtnLake.
- Waldron. Sending Waldron (and Booneville, Mansfield, Charleston) up to NWA rather than along the River Valley increases their travel time

These discussions are fun.

[bobcats]

My kids played at Jessieville all through the 2000's and Mayflower was always in the conference.  I promise given the choice they would jump at the choice of bypassing the private schools of LR.

Valley travelling to NW increase their travel time.  They are 30 minutes from Marshall and 60 from Clinton and 1 hour and 15 minutes from Mountain View. They are 2 hours plus from Lincoln and 1.45 from Greenland and Wf.

[Ice Water]

Right, but so were HHG, Baptist, and Episcopal.

As for the Harrison area schools, it makes much more sense for them to remain with Marshall and Clinton. But there is simply not enough 3A schools in the area to form a 7 team league. You could spin the same point you make towards Cave City. They are 35 minutes from Cedar Ridge and roughly 50 minutes from Newport, Tuckerman, Hoxie, and Walnut Ridge. Why make them travel 2 hours and 50 minutes to Green Forest, 2hr 25min to Bergman, and 2hr 15min to Valley Springs?

[bobcats]

Actually Lamar or Atkins are closer than Cave City but I didn't want to make them leave their conference.

[bobcats]

The new conferences have been posted on the AAA website.

[bobcats]

Now that the conferences have been set, how will the regionals set up?

I see the 1W and 1E , 2&3, 4&5 And 6&7.  I could also see 1E and 4 swapping places.