CLASS 4A FEARLESS FORECAST

[BarclayAlmanac]

Over the next week, we'll take a look at each conference and with the help of RPS determine who will win the conference championship and who will contend:

4A-1
PROJECTED CHAMPION: Prairie Grove
CONTENDERS: Shiloh Christian, Gravette
KEY GAME(S): Oct. 2 Gravette at Prairie Grove, Oct. 9 Shiloh Christian at Prairie Grove, Oct. 30 Shiloh Christian at Gravette
FEARLESS FORECAST: Prairie Grove gets a slight nod over Shiloh Christian and Gravette. The Tigers do host both teams in consecutive weeks in early October, which may decide the title early. Prairie Grove is led by 6-7, 270-pound tight end Dylan Soehner on an offense which returns just five starters, including three linemen. Soehner caught 36 passes for 484 yards and five touchdowns. "Good potential, not as fast as usual, decent depth," said Danny Abshier, who begins his 23rd year as head coach of the Tigers. "We have above average skill position, must experience and multi-threat." Defensively, Prairie Grove returns the entire front seven and one defensive back.  Shiloh Christian quarterback Connor Reece threw for 2,184 yards and 23 touchdowns last year as a sophomore. John Marcus Carruthers ran for 663 yards and six touchdowns for the Saints. Bruce Moorman threw for 768 yards and seven touchdowns for Gravette.

4A-2
PROJECTED CHAMPION: Helena-West Helena Central
CONTENDERS: Lonoke, Central Arkansas Christian, Newport, Stuttgart, Riverview
KEY GAME(S): Oct. 16 Lonoke at Helena-West Helena Central
FEARLESS FORECAST: In other words, this will be the most exciting conference in the state to watch this season with six teams capable of winning at least a share of the conference championship although Riverview might be considered more of a darkhorse than a contender. Still, virtually every game in October and especially in early November will be key games. Helena-West Helena hosting Lonoke on October 16 might be the separation game, though, between two teams slightly ahead of the others.
The Cougars were oh so close to the conference title last year and 15 returning starters should be enough to push them to the top. Lonoke's 1-2 punch of running backs Josh Coleman and Justin Meadows, who scored 17 touchdowns last year, will be lethal. "We return all the skill players," Lonoke head coach Doug Bost said. "Josh Coleman should be a workhorse this year." Newport's Carl Turner ran for 1,650 yards and 19 touchdowns on 258 carries last year and will one of the top offensive players in the conference.

4A-3
PROJECTED CHAMPION: Pocahontas
CONTENDERS: Highland, Gosnell
KEY GAME(S): Oct. 16 Highland at Gosnell, Oct. 23 Pocahontas at Gosnell, Oct. 30 Highland at Pocahontas
FEARLESS FORECAST: Games on three successive nights in October will either decide a front runner or end in a three-way tie provided, of course, one of those three top teams don't stumble, which is unlikely against the other five teams. Pocahontas quarterback Reece Coates and running back Barkley Sorg were both all-conference last year as sophomores. Pocahontas does have to replace its entire offensive line but the incoming linemen average 271 pounds, anchored by right guard Kolby Barnes (5-9, 300). The Redskins also have to contend with an odd schedule with a seven-week stretch in which they play six games on the road, including four in a row early in the season. Highland returns quarterback Reid Maag, who completed 106 of 194 passes for 2,040 yards and 21 touchdowns.

4A-4
PROJECTED CHAMPION: Dardanelle
CONTENDERS: none
KEY GAME(S): Oct. 30 Pottsville at Pulaski Robinson
FEARLESS FORECAST: Pottsville and Robinson are outside shots to dethrone Dardanelle but not likely. The Sand Lizards returns only four returning starters from last year's semifinalist that narrowly missed going to the championship game. Chris Kershner slides into the quarterback role to lead the team. "We will be real good up front with five three-year starters," Dardanelle head coach Josh Price said. "We must find some wide receivers to take up slack and block and catch. Tailback will be by committee." T.J. Hammonds of Robinson is the top offensive threat in the conference. He ran for 835 yards and six touchdowns, and caught 42 passes for 1,109 yards and 11 touchdowns from quarterback Brennen Johnson, who threw for 2,104 yards and 19 touchdowns. "If we stay healthy we will win it," Price said. "We have top three other teams at home."

4A-7
PROJECTED CHAMPION: Nashville
CONTENDERS: Arkadelphia
KEY GAME(S): Sept. 25 Nashville at Arkadelphia
FEARLESS FORECAST: Nashville is a favorite to win its 32nd championship since official districts were formed in 1946. The conference may be decided before October even with Arkadelphia, really the only team that could challenge Nashville, hosting the Scrappers to close out September. Nashville quarterback Leonard Snell threw for 2,048 yards and 33 touchdowns while running back Darius Hopkins ran for 1,238 yards and nine touchdowns. The Scrappers' offense "learning a new system" according to new head coach Mike Volarvich, who takes over for Billy Dawson. Arkadelphia and Malvern also return talented quarterbacks. Jeff Blake returns for Arkadelphia while Trace Collie is back to lead Malvern's attack. Fountain Lake running back Parker Ross returns after rushing for 1,651 yards and 23 touchdowns. "This is like the high school equivalent of the SEC?" said new Waldron head coach Ricky May. Any of these teams are dangerous and could win on any given night."

4A-8
PROJECTED CHAMPION: Star City
CONTENDERS: Hamburg, Warren, PB Dollarway
KEY GAME(S): Oct. 2 Warren at Star City, Oct. 9 Star City at Hamburg, Oct. 16 Dollarway at Hamburg, Oct. 23 Star City at Dollarway, Oct. 30 Warren at Hamburg, Nov. 5 Dollarway at Warren
FEARLESS FORECAST: Star City is a slight favorite to win just their second outright conference championship ever. The Bulldogs will have plenty of chances to stumble with Hamburg, Warren and Dollarway all more than capable of taking over the top spot. The key games between those four teams are lined up one right after another, beginning Oct. 2, so it will be a fun conference to watch. Tye Brown is the top returning quarterback in the conference after completing 154 of 263 passes for 2,239 yards and 19 scores. He also ran for six touchdowns. His top receiver, Blake Wynn, returns. Wynn caught 42 passes for 801 yards and seven touchdowns a year ago. Austin Capps leads the defense after recording eight sacks and 21 tackles for lost yardage last year. Simeon Blair threw for 1,009 yards and six touchdowns to lead Dollarway's offense last year. Hamburg and defending Class 4A state champion Warren were gutted by graduation, especially in the skilled positions.

[beach bum]

Good job Barclay. You were spot on for almost everything. The biggest things I noticed were no "contender" label given to Pottsville or Pulaski Robinson. Dardanelle brings too much physicality for Robinson to handle but Pottsville is a rivalry game so you never know. Also, the 2-4A is very accurate as the biggest toss up. I can't wait for the Stuttgart guys to notice Heber Springs isn't one of the contenders listed out of that many. Also, the only other surprise is not seeing Malvern listed with Arky in the 7-4A as a possibility. Great work again!

[beach bum]

And add Pea Ridge. I thought they would be a contender too in the 1-4A.

[THE D.O.C]

WOW, you left Malvern out of the picture in 4A-7

[Bigredhog1971]

WOW, you left Malvern out of the picture in 4A-7

Does'nt say much for the quality of their forecast prediction does it. Their forecast is about as good as the weather mans.

[AirWarren]

The crying begins.

[HeberFan]

You completely left Heber out of the top 6 contenders?

[THE D.O.C]

The crying begins.

Yeap. LOL

[cuckoobird]

You completely left Heber out of the top 6 contenders?

That's because they are a PREtender

[HeberFan]

You completely left Heber out of the top 6 contenders?

That's because they are a PREtender

Yawn

[phdefense]

You completely left Heber out of the top 6 contenders?

That's because they are a PREtender

I must say though. Heber is closer to being a contender than Riverside.

[beach bum]

You completely left Heber out of the top 6 contenders?

That's because they are a PREtender

That's just bad when Barclay has them picked 7th... who knows maybe he even has them behind the Southerners of Batesville.

[HeberFan]

Pre-season picks mean nothing. Just gotta play the games

[The Ref]

You completely left Heber out of the top 6 contenders?

That's because they are a PREtender

I must say though. Heber is closer to being a contender than Riverside.

Pretty sure Riverside doesn't play football, so I would hope that Heber is better than they are.

[phdefense]

You completely left Heber out of the top 6 contenders?

That's because they are a PREtender

I must say though. Heber is closer to being a contender than Riverside.

Pretty sure Riverside doesn't play football, so I would hope that Heber is better than they are.

You got me. Riverview(Searcy white flight university) Riverside what ever you want to call them. They are a school that should not exist anyway. And they are not as close to being a contender as Heber. Just remember, Heber was supposed to be down last year and finished 2nd in the conference. I think that is the first time I have ever seen them over achieve which is a good sign for their football program. And with that I am all out of nice about Heber. ...ick...

[MoChedda]

I agree with the 2-4A prediction with HWH being the champs. Go Cougars

[The Ref]

You completely left Heber out of the top 6 contenders?

That's because they are a PREtender

I must say though. Heber is closer to being a contender than Riverside.

Pretty sure Riverside doesn't play football, so I would hope that Heber is better than they are.

You got me. Riverview(Searcy white flight university) Riverside what ever you want to call them. They are a school that should not exist anyway. And they are not as close to being a contender as Heber. .

"White flight university"?? Pretty sure you are confused about Riverview.  So Stuttgart could only manage to beat "a school that should not exist",  7-0?  Impressive

[Riverview Raider Dad]

You completely left Heber out of the top 6 contenders?

That's because they are a PREtender

I must say though. Heber is closer to being a contender than Riverside.

Pretty sure Riverside doesn't play football, so I would hope that Heber is better than they are.

You got me. Riverview(Searcy white flight university) Riverside what ever you want to call them. They are a school that should not exist anyway. And they are not as close to being a contender as Heber. .

"White flight university"?? Pretty sure you are confused about Riverview.  So Stuttgart could only manage to beat "a school that should not exist",  7-0?  Impressive

Newport was a close game as well 26-13 well will see just how good WFU this year!! Go Raiders

[Lions84]

Good predictions! But The Flock will win their district.

[Air Force One]

Gutted by graduation, true (Warren) Ask Smackover (No. 1 in 3A by Hootens) did they look like a team rebuilding? Star City could not get by Lonoke, Dollarway and Warren will decide the 8-4A....

[AirWarren]

We all know that warren's win was luck and due to Smackover having an off night. Warren is lucky to be fielding a team.

[Jack1990]

We all know that warren's win was luck and due to Smackover having an off night. Warren is lucky to be fielding a team.

Plus Smackover was playing their second string and we only played starters.

[bulldoghistorian]

I'm telling you. S C will be in the 8-4A title hunt! We just ran in to a Lonoke team that just quite frankly played really well last Friday night, and we didn't! Lonoke is a team you better look out for!! They will win the 2-4A!

[CounterPunch]

I'm telling you. S C will be in the 8-4A title hunt! We just ran in to a Lonoke team that just quite frankly played really well last Friday night, and we didn't! Lonoke is a team you better look out for!! They will win the 2-4A!

this is very true. Time will prove this statement. Just give it a few weeks.

[AirWarren]

We all know that warren's win was luck and due to Smackover having an off night. Warren is lucky to be fielding a team.

Plus Smackover was playing their second string and we only played starters.

That's right. Our starters were left in to run up the score. While Smackover had their 3rd and 4 string in to start the second half.

We will be lucky to stay within 72 points against an 0-1 Stuttgart team.

[LakeRat]

You completely left Heber out of the top 6 contenders?

That's because they are a PREtender

I must say though. Heber is closer to being a contender than Riverside.

Pretty sure Riverside doesn't play football, so I would hope that Heber is better than they are.

You got me. Riverview(Searcy white flight university) Riverside what ever you want to call them. They are a school that should not exist anyway. And they are not as close to being a contender as Heber. Just remember, Heber was supposed to be down last year and finished 2nd in the conference. I think that is the first time I have ever seen them over achieve which is a good sign for their football program. And with that I am all out of nice about Heber. ...ick...

Thank you for digging so deep... I'm sure it was a challenge to find that much nice re: Heber Springs!! LOL

Given this analysis is based on RPS... I'm not too concerned with Heber being omitted from a list of contenders at this point in the season. Since RPS is heavily weighted on historical statistics, the Panther's are still carrying the baggage of the BJ era (Before Janski) of 2006 dating well back into the 90's... when Heber couldn't field a winning football team to save their lives.

In recent history, 8 of the last 10 seasons the Panthers have been sneaking up on the statisticians... and surprising a lot of folks by ending up in the top half of the conference standings and venturing into the playoffs. I'm reminded of last year... Lonoke was a popular pick and they finished out 5th... Helena & CAC were supposed to be barn burners and fizzled out. 

This year I'm not seeing nor hearing anything great from Newport or the head-scratcher Riverview to put them into contender rankings. We're all waiting to see if the Ricebirds make the predicted turn to a winning season. I still don't get the hoopla over Lonoke yet... we'll see again.

Just be on the look-out for the Heber Springs' Play Action Pass™... sneaking up on a Friday night near you soon...

[HeberFan]

Lonoke is plenty good this year. Just ask Beebe.

[tank]

Gutted by graduation, true (Warren) Ask Smackover (No. 1 in 3A by Hootens) did they look like a team rebuilding? Star City could not get by Lonoke, Dollarway and Warren will decide the 8-4A....

I don't know how you could leave Hamburg out of this mix. Coach Cossey has the lions looking pretty good.

[bigchief72455]

That is a fair assessment of the 4A-3.

[LAfootball fan]

I was alright with everything about Warren until they said gutted at the skill positions.  I doubt there are 2-3 teams with as good a receivers as #9, #13, and #14.  Lassiter at qb has proven to be very capable and has moved this offense tons better than last years team at this point in the season.   #28 just put up over 300 yards on the ground so I think rb may be okay too.  Gutted at lineman I may have agreed with as this is a young group of lineman working on improving every week on both offense and defense but hey are getting better.  If they can hold their own the next few weeks , Warren could surprise many prognosticators.

[HorseFeathers]

I was alright with everything about Warren until they said gutted at the skill positions.  I doubt there are 2-3 teams with as good a receivers as #9, #13, and #14.  Lassiter at qb has proven to be very capable and has moved this offense tons better than last years team at this point in the season.   #28 just put up over 300 yards on the ground so I think rb may be okay too.  Gutted at lineman I may have agreed with as this is a young group of lineman working on improving every week on both offense and defense but hey are getting better.  If they can hold their own the next few weeks , Warren could surprise many prognosticators.

The forecast was posted a week before the season. They graduated 10 starters on offense from last year. It's easy to criticize preseason projections when you wait until week 5 to Do it..n

[LAfootball fan]

It is also easy to come in here and blast someone for making a valid observation.  It would have been very easy for the OP to do a little research and find that #28 was a returning rb that had performed well the previous season and was expected to be very good.  Only reason he didn't play more last year was a couple senior rbs that were also very good.  That is one skill position that was obviously not gutted.  #14 also played last year and did well - another skill position with a good player coming back.  Lassiter came in during mop up duty and ran the read option well.  The only question was his passing and that was addressed during 7 on 7 this summer.  Another easy thing to check on to see how Warren was doing in 7 on 7.   Seemed they had about the same results as usual.  Nothing but skill players.  So it was posted a week before the season.  It would have been very easy to find out that Warren was NOT gutted in the skill positions so whether I called him on it the 1st week of the season or now, it was obvious the statement was wrong and could have been researched a little better.  You feel better now.

[LJ06]

It is also easy to come in here and blast someone for making a valid observation.  It would have been very easy for the OP to do a little research and find that #28 was a returning rb that had performed well the previous season and was expected to be very good.  Only reason he didn't play more last year was a couple senior rbs that were also very good.  That is one skill position that was obviously not gutted.  #14 also played last year and did well - another skill position with a good player coming back.  Lassiter came in during mop up duty and ran the read option well.  The only question was his passing and that was addressed during 7 on 7 this summer.  Another easy thing to check on to see how Warren was doing in 7 on 7.   Seemed they had about the same results as usual.  Nothing but skill players.  So it was posted a week before the season.  It would have been very easy to find out that Warren was NOT gutted in the skill positions so whether I called him on it the 1st week of the season or now, it was obvious the statement was wrong and could have been researched a little better.  You feel better now.

Every publication was stating this. It's okay Warren is proving people wrong on the field and they just need to keep doing it on there. Let's see how they fare this Friday night though before we boast too much.

[HorseFeathers]

It is also easy to come in here and blast someone for making a valid observation.  It would have been very easy for the OP to do a little research and find that #28 was a returning rb that had performed well the previous season and was expected to be very good.  Only reason he didn't play more last year was a couple senior rbs that were also very good.  That is one skill position that was obviously not gutted.  #14 also played last year and did well - another skill position with a good player coming back.  Lassiter came in during mop up duty and ran the read option well.  The only question was his passing and that was addressed during 7 on 7 this summer.  Another easy thing to check on to see how Warren was doing in 7 on 7.   Seemed they had about the same results as usual.  Nothing but skill players.  So it was posted a week before the season.  It would have been very easy to find out that Warren was NOT gutted in the skill positions so whether I called him on it the 1st week of the season or now, it was obvious the statement was wrong and could have been researched a little better.  You feel better now.

do I feel better? You seem to be the one with anger issues

[LAfootball fan]

It is also easy to come in here and blast someone for making a valid observation.  It would have been very easy for the OP to do a little research and find that #28 was a returning rb that had performed well the previous season and was expected to be very good.  Only reason he didn't play more last year was a couple senior rbs that were also very good.  That is one skill position that was obviously not gutted.  #14 also played last year and did well - another skill position with a good player coming back.  Lassiter came in during mop up duty and ran the read option well.  The only question was his passing and that was addressed during 7 on 7 this summer.  Another easy thing to check on to see how Warren was doing in 7 on 7.   Seemed they had about the same results as usual.  Nothing but skill players.  So it was posted a week before the season.  It would have been very easy to find out that Warren was NOT gutted in the skill positions so whether I called him on it the 1st week of the season or now, it was obvious the statement was wrong and could have been researched a little better.  You feel better now.

Every publication was stating this. It's okay Warren is proving people wrong on the field and they just need to keep doing it on there. Let's see how they fare this Friday night though before we boast too much.

Not boasting.  I haven't predicted anything as far as how well Warren finishes the season.  Everyone looked at what Warren lost and I could see that being an issue like others.  I stated that I thought line play was going to be the bigger issue than skill players.  I still think that.  Bo always has talented skill players no matter the season and who graduated the previous year.   They are groomed from junior high up in his system.  As I stated above, I only had issue with stating Warren was gutted of skill players.  I agree we lost some good ones, but that statement implies that Warren didn't have ANY skill players coming back and that just wasn't true.  I don't have any issue with his prediction that Warren was rebuilding and others had a lot more talent overall coming back.  I agree with that.  Not trying to make Warren out to be a powerhouse this year, just pointing out that skill positions are not gutted and never were gutted.  Nothing more than that.  I could see 2 or 3 losses in conference this year very easily with the youth that is on this team. 

[LJ06]

It is also easy to come in here and blast someone for making a valid observation.  It would have been very easy for the OP to do a little research and find that #28 was a returning rb that had performed well the previous season and was expected to be very good.  Only reason he didn't play more last year was a couple senior rbs that were also very good.  That is one skill position that was obviously not gutted.  #14 also played last year and did well - another skill position with a good player coming back.  Lassiter came in during mop up duty and ran the read option well.  The only question was his passing and that was addressed during 7 on 7 this summer.  Another easy thing to check on to see how Warren was doing in 7 on 7.   Seemed they had about the same results as usual.  Nothing but skill players.  So it was posted a week before the season.  It would have been very easy to find out that Warren was NOT gutted in the skill positions so whether I called him on it the 1st week of the season or now, it was obvious the statement was wrong and could have been researched a little better.  You feel better now.

Every publication was stating this. It's okay Warren is proving people wrong on the field and they just need to keep doing it on there. Let's see how they fare this Friday night though before we boast too much.

Not boasting.  I haven't predicted anything as far as how well Warren finishes the season.  Everyone looked at what Warren lost and I could see that being an issue like others.  I stated that I thought line play was going to be the bigger issue than skill players.  I still think that.  Bo always has talented skill players no matter the season and who graduated the previous year.   They are groomed from junior high up in his system.  As I stated above, I only had issue with stating Warren was gutted of skill players.  I agree we lost some good ones, but that statement implies that Warren didn't have ANY skill players coming back and that just wasn't true.  I don't have any issue with his prediction that Warren was rebuilding and others had a lot more talent overall coming back.  I agree with that.  Not trying to make Warren out to be a powerhouse this year, just pointing out that skill positions are not gutted and never were gutted.  Nothing more than that.  I could see 2 or 3 losses in conference this year very easily with the youth that is on this team. 

You've made your point. Like I've said people will be wrong from time to time and it's hard not to be on something when your covering the entire state. Everybody thought Warren was down at all levels and they don't appear to be. It's okay like I said they are proving people wrong one week at a time.

[HBG PRIDE]

Warren dosnt have me fooled....weak defenses don't win championships....It will all come out in the wash...3 or 4 more weeks....and truth will be known.

[Superjack45]

Warren dosnt have me fooled....weak defenses don't win championships....It will all come out in the wash...3 or 4 more weeks....and truth will be known.

you are one of the ones that thought the same thing last year and what happen to the Lions, so get your mind right because the train is coming you had better be worried about Dway.

[AirWarren]

Let him talk. He must have been shining that dusty 1997 conference title extra hard today.

[Lumberjackfan1978]

Your right it will come out in the wash Hamburg is going down....

[HBG PRIDE]

Warren dosnt have me fooled....weak defenses don't win championships....It will all come out in the wash...3 or 4 more weeks....and truth will be known.

you are one of the ones that thought the same thing last year and what happen to the Lions, so get your mind right because the train is coming you had better be worried about Dway.

Don't know what your talkin bout last year....but I can tell you this...If Warren gona hang with Hamburg this YEAR, they better get that defense fixed..lol

[HBG PRIDE]

Your right it will come out in the wash Hamburg is going down....

Goin down in history as 8-4a champs.

[HBG PRIDE]

Let him talk. He must have been shining that dusty 1997 conference title extra hard today.

Shut that mouth MAUMELLE...if I want to talk to you I will call you out.

[beach bum]

I was going to debate with this guy on an earlier thread but am sure glad I didn't and won't either in the future....... my senses were correct. We have the hillbillyforlife of the 8-4A 

[WPWells]

I'm waiting for the Hamburg JV thread

[Lumberjackfan1978]

Your right it will come out in the wash Hamburg is going down....

Goin down in history as 8-4a champs.

Not this year

[Bowser54]

Warren dosnt have me fooled....weak defenses don't win championships....It will all come out in the wash...3 or 4 more weeks....and truth will be known.

you are one of the ones that thought the same thing last year and what happen to the Lions, so get your mind right because the train is coming you had better be worried about Dway.

Don't know what your talkin bout last year....but I can tell you this...If Warren gona hang with Hamburg this YEAR, they better get that defense fixed..lol

Hamburg's offense hasn't really impressed me much. Good defensive team, but I don't see them keeping up with Warren's offense. Now, why don't you wait on the Warren/Hamburg thread instead of ruining every thread with that crap

[AirWarren]

I'm waiting for the Hamburg JV thread

I'm waiting on AIRHAMBURG to come pick up my trash today.




I'm kind of flattered though. In all my years on here, I've never had anyone copy my name with such similarity as AIRHAMBURG HA

[AirWarren]

I was going to debate with this guy on an earlier thread but am sure glad I didn't and won't either in the future....... my senses were correct. We have the hillbillyforlife of the 8-4A 

It's pointless. He hits up every thread with the same rhetoric. That game is October 30th. Our next game is October 16th.

[HBG PRIDE]

Warren dosnt have me fooled....weak defenses don't win championships....It will all come out in the wash...3 or 4 more weeks....and truth will be known.

you are one of the ones that thought the same thing last year and what happen to the Lions, so get your mind right because the train is coming you had better be worried about Dway.

Don't know what your talkin bout last year....but I can tell you this...If Warren gona hang with Hamburg this YEAR, they better get that defense fixed..lol

Hamburg's offense hasn't really impressed me much. Good defensive team, but I don't see them keeping up with Warren's offense. Now, why don't you wait on the Warren/Hamburg thread instead of ruining every thread with that crap

If I read correctly this is 4a fearless forecast, which means forecast....coming up...in the near future...so with that said....don't tell me where to post comments, and if your tired of it ...then stay off.....