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Playoffs after week 8...

Started by HorseFeathers, October 25, 2010, 10:12:54 pm

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HorseFeathers

1st – 4 Magazine
BYE

2nd – 8 Strong  31
5th – 7 Gurdon  28

1st – 6 Carlisle  42
5th – 4 Johnson County Westside 06

3rd – 3 East Poinsett County 40
4th – 5 Mountain Pine 22
========= ===========

1st – 7 Spring Hill 41
5th – 6 Clarendon 26

3rd – 6 Hazen 38
3rd – 4 Hackett 28

2nd – 3 McCrory 17
4th – 7 Horatio 24

2nd – 5 Magnet Cove 31
4th – 3 Augusta 20
========= ===========

1st – 5 Bigelow 6
BYE 42  :o

2nd – 6 Des Arc 44
5th – 5 Quitman 12

1st – 8 Bearden 38
5th – 3 Cross County  06

3rd – 8 Norphlet 19
4th – 4 Mountainburg 17
========= ===========

1st – 3 Walnut Ridge 22
5th – 8 Parkers Chapel 26

3rd – 5 Conway Christian 26
3rd – 7 Murfreesboro 42

2nd – 4 Danville 28
4th – 8 Junction City 21

2nd – 7 Mineral Springs 42
4th – 6 England 28

Round 2
Magazine 34
strong 19

Carlisle 42
EPC   27

======
SpringHill 35
Hazen     26

Horatio  27
MagnetCove 31
====
Bigelow 17
Des arc 21

Bearden 35
Norphlet 17
========
Parker Chapel 21
Murf 31

Danville 31
Mineral Springs 35

round 3
Magazine 24
Carlisle 21
========
Spring Hill 31
Magnet Cove 21
========
Des Arc 14
Bearden 24
========
Murf 28
Mineral Springs 35
Semi Finals
Magazine 28
Spring Hill 24
========
Bearden    35
Mineral Springs 31

Finals
Magazine 28
Bearden 24


Classof91

Where are you getting the predictions?  Calpreps?  If so, how often are they correct?  I would imagine around 75% of the time they get the correct winner anyway.  Hope they are wrong about the last score!   :)

krjones


krjones

Quote from: Sports_Nutt on October 25, 2010, 10:43:27 pm
The by week is not a good omen for any team with a bye in the 1st week...It has a near 95% non-fail rate.....Not saying its going to happen but it happens most of the times. And cal preps is not that accurite in there pics most the time so I would not go by there picks ....


??? ??? non fail means win. Doesn't it, why is it not a good thing if you don't lose! And were not Perryville last year! I know where you are going!! The coach keeps the kids in playing shape! And when you play the Hartfords(nothing against them) of the world it might as well be a bye.

Endsley34

Picking Magazine over Bearden = fail

rattlerfan17

People who don't give Magazine any respect=fail

Endsley34

people who ask for respect who haven't earned any = fail. You can't come out of nowhere one year and expect for people to respect you. anyone can have a good year. now if you have a couple good seasons then well talk about respect. Bearden had to earn respect now magazine has 2

RATTLER43

Who is asking for respect. That is a data-based program picking us. We don't care who picks us to win or to lose. We practice hard and come out to win against any foe. We were picked to lose against Carlisle last year and beat them; picked to lose against Des Arc and we beat them; picked to lose against JC and did what everyone else did*---lost. Yes, Bearden beat them once but in the end JC beat them too. This season, the prognosticators picked West Fork to beat us--we won; then picked Subi to beat us---we won; then picked Danville to beat us and we won that one too. We don't need no stinkin' respect. We just need to keep preparing and winning games. Worrying about who is picked to win or lose=fail. We may beat Bearden in the final and we might not even make it to the third round. This is all speculation. Just work hard, execute, and stay healthy. Until the state broke up the classifications and watered it down even more you never heard of JC or Bearden. It was Rison, USC, Barton, Carlisle, and such. Charleston won a lot but got their title after numerous years of close calls. It did not mean JC, Bearden, or Charleston was not good- just not good enough to win the title. Same here. We may or not win the title but we are good. Playoffs will determine the level of "goodness".

BEARDENBEARS.NET


bleudog

October 26, 2010, 04:53:33 pm #9 Last Edit: October 26, 2010, 05:06:37 pm by bleudog
Quote from: Sports_Nutt on October 25, 2010, 10:43:27 pm
The by week is not a good omen for any team with a bye in the 1st week...It has a near 95% fail rate but they have some success of picks but its not 100%.....Not saying its going to happen but it happens most of the times. And cal preps is not that accurate in there pics most the time so I would not go by there picks ....
A bye week at anytime could be good or bad depending on whether or not a team is on a roll it doesn't want to stop or needs a week to heal up.

Remember, AAA assigns first round byes on a rotating basis.  They aren't earned, just assigned.  The two strongest #1 seeds could end up with byes or the two weakest #1 seeds could end up with byes.  Under the current AAA system, the weakest #1 seed may be the 20th (or worse) best 2A team.

Not sure about your 95% comment though.  Junction was a playoff bye team in 2008 and won it all.  Bearden was a playoff bye team in 2007 and played four weeks later at WMS.


Now since 30 teams from the 2A enter the playoff bracket and 29 of them ultimately fail, I guess that works out to a failure rate of 96.67%. ;)

RATTLER43

Thank you. And by the way, I have you guys #1 in my poll. But you better take our multiple attack offense seriously. We played with mostly juniors and sophomores last year with sophomores dominating our team. QB, WR, top LB, CB, S, and lines were full of sophs. Big leap in development between soph and Jr. years. We just ran into the JC buzzsaw and got ripped up one side and down the other.

cuz

'Stt mean
Quote from: RATTLER43 on October 26, 2010, 04:37:47 pm
Who is asking for respect. That is a data-based program picking us. We don't care who picks us to win or to lose. We practice hard and come out to win against any foe. We were picked to lose against Carlisle last year and beat them; picked to lose against Des Arc and we beat them; picked to lose against JC and did what everyone else did*---lost. Yes, Bearden beat them once but in the end JC beat them too. This season, the prognosticators picked West Fork to beat us--we won; then picked Subi to beat us---we won; then picked Danville to beat us and we won that one too. We don't need no stinkin' respect. We just need to keep preparing and winning games. Worrying about who is picked to win or lose=fail. We may beat Bearden in the final and we might not even make it to the third round. This is all speculation. Just work hard, execute, and stay healthy. Until the state broke up the classifications and watered it down even more you never heard of JC or Bearden. It was Rison, USC, Barton, Carlisle, and such. Charleston won a lot but got their title after numerous years of close calls. It did not mean JC, Bearden, or Charleston was not good- just not good enough to win the title. Same here. We may or not win the title but we are good. Playoffs will determine the level of "goodness".
A pretty good post just one thing though. I don't feel the 2a is watered down now or will ever be. In 2003 Junction City I believed beat Barton for the state Championship and also beat Rison during those years. Schools have no control of the number of students and what class they are they just play in the class they're assigned. True some very good teams don't make it to the finals and that doesn't mean they aren't  good they just got a bad draw. But in the end the cream of the crop usually floats to the top. Junction City and Bearden both have been there multiple times and will continue to be there until there is a coaching change. Pick's, ranking's, gives us something to talk about. As you stated earlier work hard,execute and stay healthy and the rest will surely come. Good luck to all in the remaining season and playoffs.....

rattlerfan17

October 26, 2010, 07:44:33 pm #12 Last Edit: October 26, 2010, 07:46:16 pm by rattlerfan17
Ah, see, I'm not asking for respect for the program as a whole (over the years) as you are saying, we haven't earned that yet. Heck, I'm not even ASKING for respect for our team this year... I'm just saying that all of the people at the end of the year who get beat down by a team that they consider a "nobody team" just because we haven't won any state titles before are going to be sorely disappointed... Just sayin- you have been warned...

And who knows, we may not go anywhere... I'm just a fan that takes pride in his team, and think that our team is a really special group of guys that have a huge potential... As the green moose says... Rattlerfan17 has spoken.  ;D

RATTLER43

Quote from: cuz on October 26, 2010, 07:28:12 pm
'Stt mean
Quote from: RATTLER43 on October 26, 2010, 04:37:47 pm
Who is asking for respect. That is a data-based program picking us. We don't care who picks us to win or to lose. We practice hard and come out to win against any foe. We were picked to lose against Carlisle last year and beat them; picked to lose against Des Arc and we beat them; picked to lose against JC and did what everyone else did*---lost. Yes, Bearden beat them once but in the end JC beat them too. This season, the prognosticators picked West Fork to beat us--we won; then picked Subi to beat us---we won; then picked Danville to beat us and we won that one too. We don't need no stinkin' respect. We just need to keep preparing and winning games. Worrying about who is picked to win or lose=fail. We may beat Bearden in the final and we might not even make it to the third round. This is all speculation. Just work hard, execute, and stay healthy. Until the state broke up the classifications and watered it down even more you never heard of JC or Bearden. It was Rison, USC, Barton, Carlisle, and such. Charleston won a lot but got their title after numerous years of close calls. It did not mean JC, Bearden, or Charleston was not good- just not good enough to win the title. Same here. We may or not win the title but we are good. Playoffs will determine the level of "goodness".
A pretty good post just one thing though. I don't feel the 2a is watered down now or will ever be. In 2003 Junction City I believed beat Barton for the state Championship and also beat Rison during those years. Schools have no control of the number of students and what class they are they just play in the class they're assigned. True some very good teams don't make it to the finals and that doesn't mean they aren't  good they just got a bad draw. But in the end the cream of the crop usually floats to the top. Junction City and Bearden both have been there multiple times and will continue to be there until there is a coaching change. Pick's, ranking's, gives us something to talk about. As you stated earlier work hard,execute and stay healthy and the rest will surely come. Good luck to all in the remaining season and playoffs.....

Hope I do not offend. Watered down is not to mean that the top teams are not as great as any team that ever competed at this level but we have fewer teams now than we did then and the Risons, Bartons, USCs, and Charlestons are long gone. I still think JC or Bearden go to the title game last season but USC would most likely have gone too. Who knows who wins in that game. Just the fact that I think our state champion and runner-up could compete against the AAAA state champion should tell volumes about the respect I have for our classifications. But our 5th-40th best now do not match up with 5th-40th back then. Just my opinion.

Endsley34

dang i done started a controversy lol.

CoachC

Endsley is a controversy starter alright.  Gotta watch him now, gotta try and keep him in check.

C

Classof91

Quote from: CoachC on October 27, 2010, 08:22:20 am
Endsley is a controversy starter alright.  Gotta watch him now, gotta try and keep him in check.

C

Endsley the "Controversialist"

HorseFeathers

Quote from: Classof91 on October 25, 2010, 10:17:20 pm
Where are you getting the predictions?  Calpreps?  If so, how often are they correct?  I would imagine around 75% of the time they get the correct winner anyway.  Hope they are wrong about the last score!   :)
calpreps project a matchup feature.....I think they are correct 77% of the time for arkansas...but personally considering all they use is game scores, dynasty ratings, and strength of schedule...and they are sitting in california where all the schools here are just writing on a computer screen, I consider 77% to be amazing considering the "premium content" guys...are here and know what each team has and are truely capable of....and they are only correct around 80% of the time...I think RPS(official poll and prognistication system of FF) is right something like 85+% of the time....I put this on here to give people something to argue about...and apparently this week I have suceeded lol

bleudog

October 27, 2010, 09:30:28 am #18 Last Edit: October 27, 2010, 09:39:20 am by bleudog
Quote from: HF on October 27, 2010, 09:06:15 am
Quote from: Classof91 on October 25, 2010, 10:17:20 pm
Where are you getting the predictions?  Calpreps?  If so, how often are they correct?  I would imagine around 75% of the time they get the correct winner anyway.  Hope they are wrong about the last score!   :)
calpreps project a matchup feature.....I think they are correct 77% of the time for arkansas...but personally considering all they use is game scores, dynasty ratings, and strength of schedule...and they are sitting in california where all the schools here are just writing on a computer screen, I consider 77% to be amazing considering the "premium content" guys...are here and know what each team has and are truely capable of....and they are only correct around 80% of the time...I think RPS(official poll and prognistication system of FF) is right something like 85+% of the time....I put this on here to give people something to argue about...and apparently this week I have suceeded lol

HF, here's a couple of items within Calpreps you might like:

"Arkansas         
9/03   54-21 (72%)
9/10   53-21 (71.6%)
9/17   77-24 (76.2%)
9/24   83-21 (79.8%)
10/01  79-23 (77.5%)
10/08  87-16 (84.5%)
10/15  91-13 (87.5%)
10/22  88-15 (85.4%)       
Total  612-154  (79.9%)

Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the season:  70.1%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)"


http://calpreps.com/2010/projection_accuracy.htm


And here's the method behind the madness:

http://www.calpreps.com/ratings.htm

HorseFeathers

Quote from: bleudog on October 27, 2010, 09:30:28 am
Quote from: HF on October 27, 2010, 09:06:15 am
Quote from: Classof91 on October 25, 2010, 10:17:20 pm
Where are you getting the predictions?  Calpreps?  If so, how often are they correct?  I would imagine around 75% of the time they get the correct winner anyway.  Hope they are wrong about the last score!   :)
calpreps project a matchup feature.....I think they are correct 77% of the time for arkansas...but personally considering all they use is game scores, dynasty ratings, and strength of schedule...and they are sitting in california where all the schools here are just writing on a computer screen, I consider 77% to be amazing considering the "premium content" guys...are here and know what each team has and are truely capable of....and they are only correct around 80% of the time...I think RPS(official poll and prognistication system of FF) is right something like 85+% of the time....I put this on here to give people something to argue about...and apparently this week I have suceeded lol

HF, here's a couple of items within Calpreps you might like:

"Arkansas         
9/03   54-21 (72%)
9/10   53-21 (71.6%)
9/17   77-24 (76.2%)
9/24   83-21 (79.8%)
10/01  79-23 (77.5%)
10/08  87-16 (84.5%)
10/15  91-13 (87.5%)
10/22  88-15 (85.4%)       
Total  612-154  (79.9%)

Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the season:  70.1%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)"


http://calpreps.com/2010/projection_accuracy.htm


And here's the method behind the madness:

http://www.calpreps.com/ratings.htm

612-154? is that for all classes? anyway, Hootens is a self proclaimed 183-46 for 2A..That's roughly 80% i think.  Anyway, with the strangeness of this season...Clarendon Losing to England, after beat Hazen, Hazen not being as good as expected...Junction City losing 2 conference games. All the prognosticators are doing good...IMO

bleudog

Quote from: HF on October 27, 2010, 10:03:04 am
612-154? is that for all classes? anyway, Hootens is a self proclaimed 183-46 for 2A..That's roughly 80% i think.  Anyway, with the strangeness of this season...Clarendon Losing to England, after beat Hazen, Hazen not being as good as expected...Junction City losing 2 conference games. All the prognosticators are doing good...IMO

It would have to be all classes.  AAA lists 230 schools that are 2A or above.  Looks like a couple of dozen or so don't have football programs so on any given Friday night in Arkansas there would be 90-105 games played.

Calpreps has made predictions for 766 Arkansas games thru eight weeks and that's 96/week.

It would be interesting to see their accuracy within the smaller classes.  Haven't found that on the site though.

Endsley34

What can I say this topic was boring until I showed up :P

HorseFeathers

Last year they went

78.4%
And Went 16-0 after thanksgiving weekend lol..

Classof91

Quote from: bleudog on October 27, 2010, 09:30:28 am
Quote from: HF on October 27, 2010, 09:06:15 am
Quote from: Classof91 on October 25, 2010, 10:17:20 pm
Where are you getting the predictions?  Calpreps?  If so, how often are they correct?  I would imagine around 75% of the time they get the correct winner anyway.  Hope they are wrong about the last score!   :)
calpreps project a matchup feature.....I think they are correct 77% of the time for arkansas...but personally considering all they use is game scores, dynasty ratings, and strength of schedule...and they are sitting in california where all the schools here are just writing on a computer screen, I consider 77% to be amazing considering the "premium content" guys...are here and know what each team has and are truely capable of....and they are only correct around 80% of the time...I think RPS(official poll and prognistication system of FF) is right something like 85+% of the time....I put this on here to give people something to argue about...and apparently this week I have suceeded lol

HF, here's a couple of items within Calpreps you might like:

"Arkansas         
9/03   54-21 (72%)
9/10   53-21 (71.6%)
9/17   77-24 (76.2%)
9/24   83-21 (79.8%)
10/01  79-23 (77.5%)
10/08  87-16 (84.5%)
10/15  91-13 (87.5%)
10/22  88-15 (85.4%)       
Total  612-154  (79.9%)

Note: By comparison, blindly picking the team with the better record (and the home team in case of equal records), would have yielded the following percentage for the season:  70.1%
(In other words, anything up around 75-80% is pretty good, but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70% in regular-season high school football, due to the large number of mismatched games.)"


http://calpreps.com/2010/projection_accuracy.htm


And here's the method behind the madness:

http://www.calpreps.com/ratings.htm

Excellent info you guys!  Thanks for the knowledge. 

Nizzle

Calpreps < BCS

In other words, Calpreps is GARBAGE! Just my 2 cents.

slappy

Quote from: Nizzle on October 27, 2010, 12:03:53 pm
Calpreps < BCS

In other words, Calpreps is GARBAGE! Just my 2 cents.

+1 ;D

bleudog

October 27, 2010, 06:47:13 pm #26 Last Edit: October 27, 2010, 06:51:00 pm by bleudog
Quote from: Sports_Nutt on October 27, 2010, 06:07:53 pm
Quote from: HF on October 27, 2010, 09:06:15 am
Quote from: Classof91 on October 25, 2010, 10:17:20 pm
Where are you getting the predictions?  Calpreps?  If so, how often are they correct?  I would imagine around 75% of the time they get the correct winner anyway.  Hope they are wrong about the last score!   :)
calpreps project a matchup feature.....I think they are correct 77% of the time for arkansas...but personally considering all they use is game scores, dynasty ratings, and strength of schedule...and they are sitting in california where all the schools here are just writing on a computer screen, I consider 77% to be amazing considering the "premium content" guys...are here and know what each team has and are truely capable of....and they are only correct around 80% of the time...I think RPS(official poll and prognistication system of FF) is right something like 85+% of the time....I put this on here to give people something to argue about...and apparently this week I have suceeded lol

By the way the guys your are talking about as you said and i quote"premium content" guys" en-quote are not premium anymore you dont have to pay for there content now? But then agin not so fast on your post on suceeded on this it somthing to talk about but they the boys are not premium now......

Yeah, but my thread with a link to the rankings and projections by a "state-wide provider of formally premium content" still got zapped.

cuz

Lasted longer than I thought bleu......... 8)

bleudog

October 27, 2010, 07:51:02 pm #28 Last Edit: October 28, 2010, 07:37:13 am by bleudog
Quote from: RATTLER43 on October 26, 2010, 09:06:59 pm
Quote from: cuz on October 26, 2010, 07:28:12 pm
'Stt mean
Quote from: RATTLER43 on October 26, 2010, 04:37:47 pm
Who is asking for respect. That is a data-based program picking us. We don't care who picks us to win or to lose. We practice hard and come out to win against any foe. We were picked to lose against Carlisle last year and beat them; picked to lose against Des Arc and we beat them; picked to lose against JC and did what everyone else did*---lost. Yes, Bearden beat them once but in the end JC beat them too. This season, the prognosticators picked West Fork to beat us--we won; then picked Subi to beat us---we won; then picked Danville to beat us and we won that one too. We don't need no stinkin' respect. We just need to keep preparing and winning games. Worrying about who is picked to win or lose=fail. We may beat Bearden in the final and we might not even make it to the third round. This is all speculation. Just work hard, execute, and stay healthy. Until the state broke up the classifications and watered it down even more you never heard of JC or Bearden. It was Rison, USC, Barton, Carlisle, and such. Charleston won a lot but got their title after numerous years of close calls. It did not mean JC, Bearden, or Charleston was not good- just not good enough to win the title. Same here. We may or not win the title but we are good. Playoffs will determine the level of "goodness".
A pretty good post just one thing though. I don't feel the 2a is watered down now or will ever be. In 2003 Junction City I believed beat Barton for the state Championship and also beat Rison during those years. Schools have no control of the number of students and what class they are they just play in the class they're assigned. True some very good teams don't make it to the finals and that doesn't mean they aren't  good they just got a bad draw. But in the end the cream of the crop usually floats to the top. Junction City and Bearden both have been there multiple times and will continue to be there until there is a coaching change. Pick's, ranking's, gives us something to talk about. As you stated earlier work hard,execute and stay healthy and the rest will surely come. Good luck to all in the remaining season and playoffs.....

Hope I do not offend. Watered down is not to mean that the top teams are not as great as any team that ever competed at this level but we have fewer teams now than we did then and the Risons, Bartons, USCs, and Charlestons are long gone. I still think JC or Bearden go to the title game last season but USC would most likely have gone too. Who knows who wins in that game. Just the fact that I think our state champion and runner-up could compete against the AAAA state champion should tell volumes about the respect I have for our classifications. But our 5th-40th best now do not match up with 5th-40th back then. Just my opinion.

Cuz, I'm afraid our friends at Calpreps tend to agree with R43.

Here's a little number crunching. 

I took the final Calpreps poll for each year from 2003-2009 and averaged the power rating for the top eight and the top twenty.  Here are those average power ratings:

           Top 8      Top 20
2003    28.59     18.94
2004    21.91     13.70
2005    17.95     10.76
2006    12.65     2.22
2007    11.88     (0.20)
2008    15.66     4.86
2009    15.84     4.29


I then looked at how many of the top twenty teams in those years had non-negative power ratings and what was the power rating of the #20 team.  Here's that data.

2003   20    8.90
2004   20    4.20
2005   20    0.20
2006   10    (11.60)
2007     7    (15.50)
2008   12    (8.30)
2009   11    (7.50)


Since I had the data in a spread sheet, I went ahead and listed the top 25 individual 2A teams that made a Top 20 for the years 2003-2009.

  1   2003   Junction City (AR)    46.20
  2   2003   Barton (Lexa, AR)    36.60
  3   2003   Rison (AR)    35.30
  4   2009   Junction City (AR)    34.60
  5   2008   Junction City (AR)    34.40
  6    2004    Rison (AR)    34.10
  7    2004    Charleston (AR)    30.10
  8   2003   Charleston (AR)    29.30
  9   2009   Bearden (AR)    29.10
10    2005    Charleston (AR)    28.90
11   2007   Mount Ida (AR)    25.50
12   2007   Bearden (AR)    24.40
13    2006    Jessieville (AR)    24.30
14    2004    Jessieville (AR)    24.10
15   2008   Des Arc (AR)    23.60
16    2005    Dierks (AR)    21.30
17   2003   Bauxite (AR)    21.20
18   2003   Hughes (AR)    21.00
19   2003   Palestine-Wheatley (Palestine, AR)    20.80
20    2005    Smackover (AR)    20.10
21   2008   Bearden (AR)    19.70
22    2004    Harding Academy (Searcy, AR)    19.50
23   2003   Altheimer (AR)    18.30
24    2004    Junction City (AR)    18.20
25    2006    Junction City (AR)    18.00

(JC's 2003 Calprep power rating was the best in the state that year, all classes)


Now all that being said, the teams that moved up after the '05 season and after the '07 season moved up because they were the largest 2A schools.  The difference between having 60 kids per class and 50 kids per class could be the difference between having 25 kids on your 2A football team and having 17 kids on your 2A football team.  That could be the difference between a state championship and even making the playoffs.

USC moved up after the '01 season and they are such an anomaly they don't even deserve in the 2A conversation (although there was a certain Junction City team and a Rison team that didn't care too much that USC was drawing players from a MSA of somewhere around 350,000 when they left the 2A).

I would like to point out that JC has accomplished what they have in a declining enrollment situation.  Even with that, the Dragons' records against the better teams that moved up to 3A, while those teams were in 2A, are (to the best of my knowledge):

Shiloh                   0-1
Charleston           1-2
Rison                    2-2
Harding Academy 1-1
Jessieville             1-1



HF, please accept my apology for derailing your thread. ;)

Classof91

My head is hurting....I feel like Im in some statistics class in college.... :)

the game

    That was a heck of post bleudog  ,  the data looks good to me , the Bearden teams are ranked like I would rank them ,  dang there's some good teams on that list  , that  2003 Altheimer team was a sleeper team  :(

cuz

Super post bleu, stats don't lie. Junction City looked good being in 6 of the top individual 2a schools and it looked like 2003 was especially a good year. Thanks for the info...... 8)

bleudog

October 27, 2010, 09:13:41 pm #32 Last Edit: October 28, 2010, 07:43:54 am by bleudog
Quote from: the game on October 27, 2010, 08:52:05 pm
    That was a heck of post bleudog  ,  the data looks good to me , the Bearden teams are ranked like I would rank them ,  dang there's some good teams on that list  , that  2003 Altheimer team was a sleeper team  :(


That Altheimer team was a second seed from the old-school 2A-8.  Only had two losses.  They lost to Rison in the regular season and Charleston in the playoffs.

CLICK HERE

'03 was a good year for the smallest football classification.  There were a lot of good teams and one team that went undefeated. ;)

bleudog

One more point that comes into play in R43's position.

In 2003, Calpreps ranked 71 teams in the 2A.

In 2009, Calpreps ranked 46 teams in the 2A.


cuz


RATTLER43

Thanks for the support.

I still think in many years, such as last, that the top two teams from the "now" 2A could compete with any but the lower tier and middle tier just would struggle.

Last year's JC would compete and possibly win against any team on that list and last year's Bearden would compete well against many of them.

bubbaarkansas

not that it matters but augusta's win over epc would have it in 3rd not 4rth, good job on givin fans insight . 3-aa proabably couldn't win a play-off game even if they played eachother

HorseFeathers

Quote from: bleudog on October 27, 2010, 07:51:02 pm
Quote from: RATTLER43 on October 26, 2010, 09:06:59 pm
Quote from: cuz on October 26, 2010, 07:28:12 pm
'Stt mean
Quote from: RATTLER43 on October 26, 2010, 04:37:47 pm
Who is asking for respect. That is a data-based program picking us. We don't care who picks us to win or to lose. We practice hard and come out to win against any foe. We were picked to lose against Carlisle last year and beat them; picked to lose against Des Arc and we beat them; picked to lose against JC and did what everyone else did*---lost. Yes, Bearden beat them once but in the end JC beat them too. This season, the prognosticators picked West Fork to beat us--we won; then picked Subi to beat us---we won; then picked Danville to beat us and we won that one too. We don't need no stinkin' respect. We just need to keep preparing and winning games. Worrying about who is picked to win or lose=fail. We may beat Bearden in the final and we might not even make it to the third round. This is all speculation. Just work hard, execute, and stay healthy. Until the state broke up the classifications and watered it down even more you never heard of JC or Bearden. It was Rison, USC, Barton, Carlisle, and such. Charleston won a lot but got their title after numerous years of close calls. It did not mean JC, Bearden, or Charleston was not good- just not good enough to win the title. Same here. We may or not win the title but we are good. Playoffs will determine the level of "goodness".
A pretty good post just one thing though. I don't feel the 2a is watered down now or will ever be. In 2003 Junction City I believed beat Barton for the state Championship and also beat Rison during those years. Schools have no control of the number of students and what class they are they just play in the class they're assigned. True some very good teams don't make it to the finals and that doesn't mean they aren't  good they just got a bad draw. But in the end the cream of the crop usually floats to the top. Junction City and Bearden both have been there multiple times and will continue to be there until there is a coaching change. Pick's, ranking's, gives us something to talk about. As you stated earlier work hard,execute and stay healthy and the rest will surely come. Good luck to all in the remaining season and playoffs.....

Hope I do not offend. Watered down is not to mean that the top teams are not as great as any team that ever competed at this level but we have fewer teams now than we did then and the Risons, Bartons, USCs, and Charlestons are long gone. I still think JC or Bearden go to the title game last season but USC would most likely have gone too. Who knows who wins in that game. Just the fact that I think our state champion and runner-up could compete against the AAAA state champion should tell volumes about the respect I have for our classifications. But our 5th-40th best now do not match up with 5th-40th back then. Just my opinion.

Cuz, I'm afraid our friends at Calpreps tend to agree with R43.

Here's a little number crunching. 

I took the final Calpreps poll for each year from 2003-2009 and averaged the power rating for the top eight and the top twenty.  Here are those average power ratings:

           Top 8      Top 20
2003    28.59     18.94
2004    21.91     13.70
2005    17.95     10.76
2006    12.65     2.22
2007    11.88     (0.20)
2008    15.66     4.86
2009    15.84     4.29


I then looked at how many of the top twenty teams in those years had non-negative power ratings and what was the power rating of the #20 team.  Here's that data.

2003   20    8.90
2004   20    4.20
2005   20    0.20
2006   10    (11.60)
2007     7    (15.50)
2008   12    (8.30)
2009   11    (7.50)


Since I had the data in a spread sheet, I went ahead and listed the top 25 individual 2A teams that made a Top 20 for the years 2003-2009.

  1   2003   Junction City (AR)    46.20
  2   2003   Barton (Lexa, AR)    36.60
  3   2003   Rison (AR)    35.30
  4   2009   Junction City (AR)    34.60
  5   2008   Junction City (AR)    34.40
  6    2004    Rison (AR)    34.10
  7    2004    Charleston (AR)    30.10
  8   2003   Charleston (AR)    29.30
  9   2009   Bearden (AR)    29.10
10    2005    Charleston (AR)    28.90
11   2007   Mount Ida (AR)    25.50
12   2007   Bearden (AR)    24.40
13    2006    Jessieville (AR)    24.30
14    2004    Jessieville (AR)    24.10
15   2008   Des Arc (AR)    23.60
16    2005    Dierks (AR)    21.30
17   2003   Bauxite (AR)    21.20
18   2003   Hughes (AR)    21.00
19   2003   Palestine-Wheatley (Palestine, AR)    20.80
20    2005    Smackover (AR)    20.10
21   2008   Bearden (AR)    19.70
22    2004    Harding Academy (Searcy, AR)    19.50
23   2003   Altheimer (AR)    18.30
24    2004    Junction City (AR)    18.20
25    2006    Junction City (AR)    18.00

(JC's 2003 Calprep power rating was the best in the state that year, all classes)


Now all that being said, the teams that moved up after the '05 season and after the '07 season moved up because they were the largest 2A schools.  The difference between having 60 kids per class and 50 kids per class could be the difference between having 25 kids on your 2A football team and having 17 kids on your 2A football team.  That could be the difference between a state championship and even making the playoffs.

USC moved up after the '01 season and they are such an anomaly they don't even deserve in the 2A conversation (although there was a certain Junction City team and a Rison team that didn't care too much that USC was drawing players from a MSA of somewhere around 350,000 when they left the 2A).

I would like to point out that JC has accomplished what they have in a declining enrollment situation.  Even with that, the Dragons' records against the better teams that moved up to 3A, while those teams were in 2A, are (to the best of my knowledge):

Shiloh                   0-1
Charleston           1-2
Rison                    2-2
Harding Academy 1-1
Jessieville             1-1



HF, please accept my apology for derailing your thread. ;)

Haha...didn't derail it. The thread was headed in that direction anyway. Speaking of which, any chance that a person from "North-Central" arkansas could get some game film of that J.C-Shiloh match? 70-64 wasn't it? or something in that neighborhood anyway.

Quote from: bleudog on October 27, 2010, 09:13:41 pm
Quote from: the game on October 27, 2010, 08:52:05 pm
    That was a heck of post bleudog  ,  the data looks good to me , the Bearden teams are ranked like I would rank them ,  dang there's some good teams on that list  , that  2003 Altheimer team was a sleeper team  :(


That Altheimer team was a second seed from the old-school 2A-8.  Only had two losses.  They lost to Rison in the regular season and Charleston in the playoffs.

CLICK HERE

'03 was a good year for the smallest football classification.  There were a lot of good teams and one team that went undefeated. ;)


I miss those old schools, Gillette, Altheimer, Eudora, and Elaine all put some good runs together around the turn of the century, now they are all gone :(.

Quote from: cuz on October 27, 2010, 09:10:12 pm
Super post bleu, stats don't lie. Junction City looked good being in 6 of the top individual 2a schools and it looked like 2003 was especially a good year. Thanks for the info...... 8)

2003...We all Knew Junction City had a "good" year that year lol...that was year they invaded the boards and took over for a while, the late Dave@J.C, TDN(tim), Juice_Man(i think he's still around), the_bookie(from Norphlet), Lepoard_Roar(Norphlet as well), plus all the El Dorado Westside Christian guys bragging because they scored 20 on the Dragons, forgetting the fact that they gave up 72 lol. Was some fun times that year...

Quote from: Classof91 on October 27, 2010, 08:44:52 pm
My head is hurting....I feel like Im in some statistics class in college.... :)

Your stats class must have been easy LOL
Quote from: bleudog on October 27, 2010, 06:47:13 pm
Quote from: Sports_Nutt on October 27, 2010, 06:07:53 pm
Quote from: HF on October 27, 2010, 09:06:15 am
Quote from: Classof91 on October 25, 2010, 10:17:20 pm
Where are you getting the predictions?  Calpreps?  If so, how often are they correct?  I would imagine around 75% of the time they get the correct winner anyway.  Hope they are wrong about the last score!   :)
calpreps project a matchup feature.....I think they are correct 77% of the time for arkansas...but personally considering all they use is game scores, dynasty ratings, and strength of schedule...and they are sitting in california where all the schools here are just writing on a computer screen, I consider 77% to be amazing considering the "premium content" guys...are here and know what each team has and are truely capable of....and they are only correct around 80% of the time...I think RPS(official poll and prognistication system of FF) is right something like 85+% of the time....I put this on here to give people something to argue about...and apparently this week I have suceeded lol

By the way the guys your are talking about as you said and i quote"premium content" guys" en-quote are not premium anymore you dont have to pay for there content now? But then agin not so fast on your post on suceeded on this it somthing to talk about but they the boys are not premium now......

Yeah, but my thread with a link to the rankings and projections by a "state-wide provider of formally premium content" still got zapped.

Cause they realized Fearlessfriday, has surpassed them in importance...

Quote from: bubbaarkansas on October 28, 2010, 08:34:14 am
not that it matters but augusta's win over epc would have it in 3rd not 4rth, good job on givin fans insight . 3-aa proabably couldn't win a play-off game even if they played eachother

I have augusta in the 4th seed position(as does Rich Sanders) because if the playoffs started today that's where they would be due to, Epc has 4 conference wins, and Augusta only has 3.
Quote from: Nizzle on October 27, 2010, 12:03:53 pm
Calpreps < BCS

In other words, Calpreps is GARBAGE! Just my 2 cents.

At least Calpreps justifies there rankings, whereas the BCS says here it is, if you don't like it then it's just to bad...who's your team anyway?


Nizzle


bleudog

October 28, 2010, 11:33:29 am #39 Last Edit: October 28, 2010, 11:38:23 am by bleudog
Quote from: HF on October 28, 2010, 10:33:52 am
Haha...didn't derail it. The thread was headed in that direction anyway. Speaking of which, any chance that a person from "North-Central" arkansas could get some game film of that J.C-Shiloh match? 70-64 wasn't it? or something in that neighborhood anyway.

"The Night the Lights Went Out in Junction City"

Nov 26, 1999   

Shiloh Christian - 70
Junction City - 64

No overtime.

USC couldn't stop the run; JC couldn't stop the pass. (mostly because the Dragon RBs who were putting up gaudy numbers were the same DBs having to cover the USC receivers.)

Malzhan (spl?) referred to the game in one of his books.

Someone in the parking lot or on Hwy 167 hit a power pole and did in a transformer.  Crews got the power back on but the clock and/or scoreboard wouldn't fire back up.  There are Dragon folks who til this day will contend USC scored their go ahead TD after the game should have been over.

Not sure about the video, but I'll see what I can come up with.  That was in the '90s and, being a small school, we may have been using a sketch artist back then. ;D

HorseFeathers

Quote from: Nizzle on October 28, 2010, 11:13:00 am
College or HS?

High school

Quote from: bleudog on October 28, 2010, 11:33:29 am
Quote from: HF on October 28, 2010, 10:33:52 am
Haha...didn't derail it. The thread was headed in that direction anyway. Speaking of which, any chance that a person from "North-Central" arkansas could get some game film of that J.C-Shiloh match? 70-64 wasn't it? or something in that neighborhood anyway.

"The Night the Lights Went Out in Junction City"

Nov 26, 1999   

Shiloh Christian - 70
Junction City - 64

No overtime.

USC couldn't stop the run; JC couldn't stop the pass. (mostly because the Dragon RBs who were putting up gaudy numbers were the same DBs having to cover the USC receivers.)

Malzhan (spl?) referred to the game in one of his books.

Someone in the parking lot or on Hwy 167 hit a power pole and did in a transformer.  Crews got the power back on but the clock and/or scoreboard wouldn't fire back up.  There are Dragon folks who til this day will contend USC scored their go ahead TD after the game should have been over.

Not sure about the video, but I'll see what I can come up with.  That was in the '90s and, being a small school, we may have been using a sketch artist back then. ;D

Haha...I bet it wasn't hard to chisel one play into stone, as I'm figuring most drives were...

Nizzle

High school is Booneville and Hazen.

cuz

Haha...didn't derail it. The thread was headed in that direction anyway. Speaking of which, any chance that a person from "North-Central" arkansas could get some game film of that J.C-Shiloh match? 70-64 wasn't it? or something in that neighborhood anyway.

I think HF that game held the record for most points scored in a high school game till last year and the Nashville-USC game broke it..........

bleudog

Quote from: HF on October 28, 2010, 12:06:18 pm

Quote from: bleudog on October 28, 2010, 11:33:29 am
Quote from: HF on October 28, 2010, 10:33:52 am
Haha...didn't derail it. The thread was headed in that direction anyway. Speaking of which, any chance that a person from "North-Central" arkansas could get some game film of that J.C-Shiloh match? 70-64 wasn't it? or something in that neighborhood anyway.

"The Night the Lights Went Out in Junction City"

Nov 26, 1999   

Shiloh Christian - 70
Junction City - 64

No overtime.

USC couldn't stop the run; JC couldn't stop the pass. (mostly because the Dragon RBs who were putting up gaudy numbers were the same DBs having to cover the USC receivers.)

Malzahn referred to the game in one of his books.

Someone in the parking lot or on Hwy 167 hit a power pole and did in a transformer.  Crews got the power back on but the clock and/or scoreboard wouldn't fire back up.  There are Dragon folks who til this day will contend USC scored their go ahead TD after the game should have been over.

Not sure about the video, but I'll see what I can come up with.  That was in the '90s and, being a small school, we may have been using a sketch artist back then. ;D

Haha...I bet it wasn't hard to chisel one play into stone, as I'm figuring most drives were...

In JC's first three possessions, they ran five plays.  Three of those were touchdown runs of 39, 93, and 79 yards.  With two minutes left in the first quarter, Dragon Marcus Godfrey had 238 yards and three TDs on five carries.

That book I was mentioning was "The Hurry-Up, No-Huddle: An Offensive Phisosophy."  You can get on Amazon and read Malzahn's account of the game by previewing pages 13-16.

Too bad Calpreps wasn't power rating Arkansas teams in 1999.

HorseFeathers

238 yards and not even a quarter played yet...wow...forget the game film, got any final game stats?

bleudog

Quote from: HF on October 31, 2010, 03:11:59 pm
238 yards and not even a quarter played yet...wow...forget the game film, got any final game stats?

Quote from: footballfan on December 03, 2008, 02:41:08 pm
.............Godfrey finished with 308 yards and 3 scores on 24 carries. He had 260 at the half and 220 yards on his first 4 carries. Rhett Lashlie as a sophomore threw for 667 yards, 8 TD passes with two TD runs. JC rushed for 616 yards as a team that night.

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