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7A West Playoff Scenarios & Seeds(Updated Sat 2/18)

Started by Brian G, February 11, 2012, 08:15:20 pm

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Brian G

Ladies
3 games to play.  A reminder that top 6 make it.

Northside(11-0)- holds 3 game lead and has clinced a co-championship.  Only Southside could get the league one seed.  Any NSide win or SSide loss, gives the one to Nside.  Games remaining: Har-Ber, @Heritage, Southside.  Projection: 1st Seed

Southside(8-3)- Tied for second with Rogers.  Can finish anywhere from 1st to 5th.  Has defeated Rogers already(by 7) and game with them at SSide Friday should determine the 2 seed.  Games remaining:  @Springdale, Rogers, Northside.  Projection:  2nd Seed

Rogers(8-3)- Being swept by Nside has killed their chances at a one seed but can still get into a tie for first(not likely).  Can be 2nd to 5th.  Huge game lurks at SSide.  Games remaining: Heritage, @Southside, Bentonville.  Projection: 3rd Seed

Har-Ber(6-5)- Disappointedly finds themselves here.  Can finish 2nd to 5th. Games remaining: @Northside(would not surprise me to win this), Fayetteville, @Heritage. Projection: 4th

Bentonville(6-5)-  Loss of best player has hurt, but they are playing well as of late.  Can finish 3rd to 6th.  Games: @Fayetteville, Springdale, @Rogers.  2 wins likely. Projected: 5th

Fayetteville(3-8)- Sweep of Heritage gives them the inside shot to the 6th seed they currently hold.  Could drop to 7th.  Can tie for 5th, but can't get 5th seed.  Games: Bentonville, @Har-Ber, Springdale.  Projected: 6th

Heritage(2-9)- Loss of best player might have cost them a playoff shot.  As they stand they need to finish one game in front of Fayetteville.  Could drop to 8th, but they swept SDale.  Games: @Rogers, Northside, Har-Ber.  Projected: 7th

Springdale(0-11)- Not much to be said.  They could get to a tie for 6th but they are sunk on all tiebreakers.  A wild scenario could keep them alive into the final game at FHS.  Games: SSide, @Bentonville, @ Fayetteville Projected: 8th

Brian G


grizzlynation

Northside has already clinched the No. 1 seed. They have 92 tie breaker points while Southside only has 60. There is no way Southside can catch the Lady Bears.

Brian G

SSide boys clinch the #1 seed.

I will get all the rest of this for you on Saturday.  Lots of seeding to be decided in the final game.

Brian G

Girls update(thru 2/18)
With one game to play

1)  Northside(13-0)- Sitting first and has clinched the West #1 seed
2)  Rogers(10-3)- Sitting second and has clinched the West #2 seed.  They own a one game lead over SSide and if they are tied, they split h2h, tied on the h2h scoring, so it goes to overall points and Rogers has it clinhed.  So again, they have the #2.

3)  Southside(9-4)- Sitting 3rd.  Can get a tie for 2nd, but can't get the 2 seed or drop to 4th.  Locked in at #3 seed

4)  Har-Ber(7-6)- Tied for 4th.  Can either hold 4th or drop to 5th.  To clinch the 4 all they have to do is win vs Heritage on Friday.  To drop to 5th, they have to lost to Heritage and BHS has to beat RHS.  They split h2h, tied on h2h scoring but on the overall points race with BHS.  Likely 4th.

5)  Bentonville(7-6)- Tied for 4th.  See Har-Ber scenarios for details.  Will be #4 or #5.  Can't drop to 6th.  Likely 5th.

6)  Fayetteville(4-9)- Sitting 6th.  Locked there.  Will be the 6th.

Brian G

Boys are a little more complicated.  Give me a bit to work through it all.

Brian G

As of 2/18 with one game to play.

Complicated and I did this in a hurry, please post corrections if you see a need for it.

Remember that Fayetteville's 4 forfeits come into play here and have drastically altered the top seeds.  They forfeited once each to Southside, Rogers, Northside and Heritage.  3 of those teams are playoff team.  Each forfeit is a 10 point win for tiebreaking purposes which really hung FHS out if they got into h2h's with any of those teams.

Here we go:

1)  Southside(11-2)- They have clinched conference title outright and are the #1 seed no matter what.  They are the beneficary of FHS's error.

2)  Rogers(9-4)- Sitting second and control their fate.  A win at home versus Bentonville on Friday will give them the #2.  A loss and Fayetteville win will drop them into the #3.  They split* with FHS but by their 10 point forfeit win vs. FHS's win of 9, they own the h2h over FHS. 

3)  Fayetteville(9-4)- A nice rebound from four forfeit losses has them currently tied for 2nd.  As stated in Rogers briefing, FHS does not control it's own fate as far as grabbing the #2.  They only get the #2 with a win over Springdale and a RHS loss to BHS(possible).  Now, it they lose to Springdale they will be in a 2-way tie for 3rd.  Fayetteville defeated Springdale by 9 last month.  Also, FHS has the overall points tiebreaker clinched over Springdale.  Therefore the only way for FHS to fall to #4 is a ten point loss to Springdale.
4)Springdale(8-5)-

Note:  If Rogers loses and Springdale defeats FHS, we do have a 3-way tie for 2nd at 9-5.  Since no team would have swept the other we go to the "perfect triangle" scenario.  From the AAA handbook:

If three or more teams are tied and each team has split (or
a perfect triangle), each position will be decided using the
two team tie-breaking procedure in Paragraph A to
determine which two teams go head to head for the first
available position. First, tabulate the margin of victory in all
conference games (up to 10 points per game). The two
teams with the greatest margin of victory in conference
games shall utilize the procedure in Paragraph A to
determine the first position available. Use the same
process to determine the second position available and all
other positions available for the teams involved in a three
or more team perfect triangle tie.


FHS would be a 88. (0 more cause they lost)
RHS would be a 69. (same deal)
SDale would be a 59 + their potential margin over FHS.  Max 69.

  RHS and SDale would be tied on every conceivable tiebreaker listed if they beat FHS by 10 and RHS loses.  I guess a coin flip would occur between SDale and Rogers because they would  be tied in every scenario.  But a 10 point win by SDale is unlikely so the point should be moot.

Go with Springdale as the #4.

5)  Northside(6-7)- Sitting 5th.  Can't move up.  They own a one game lead over Bentonville.  They spilt the h2h with BHS but have them on h2h points.  Lock them in at 5th.

6)  Bentonville(5-8)- Sitting 6th.  Will be 6th.

Correction made on 3-way tiebreaker that would contain contain a SDale 10 point win this Friday.

 

MrNiceGuy

Total points just lines them up.  Rogers would still be two seed with a +1 on fayetteville

Brian G

Say huh?  What part are you referencing?

trevster10

I've decided I don't want to be the #2 seed anymore.

Gimme that #3 seed.

leatherneck

fayetteville boys
northside girls

last of the 7a west originals

MrNiceGuy

Quote from: B.G. on February 18, 2012, 12:06:44 pm
Say huh?  What part are you referencing?

The total points just line up the teams.  Then they go head to head.  In the above case Fay being the top point differential would match up with Rogers.  Rogers gets two seed with plus one in point differential? 

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