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Fred Bird's Probability Model - 5A

Started by WPWells, November 09, 2016, 12:31:48 pm

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WPWells

November 09, 2016, 12:31:48 pm Last Edit: November 12, 2016, 11:02:34 am by Fred Bird
PROJECTIONS BEFORE ROUND 1

After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Quarterfinals:
Pulaski Academy: 0.9750
Alma: 0.9453
White Hall: 0.8973
Sylvan Hills: 0.8159
Batesville: 0.7922
Forrest City: 0.7922
Wynne: 0.6398
Little Rock McClellan: 0.5818
Hot Springs Lakeside: 0.4182
Morrilton: 0.3602
Greenbrier: 0.2078
Harrison: 0.2078
Watson Chapel: 0.1841
Little Rock Christian: 0.1027
Blytheville: 0.0547
Magnolia: <0.05

To Make Semifinals:
Pulaski Academy: 0.8906
Alma: 0.6049
White Hall: 0.5657
Wynne: 0.5131
Batesville: 0.3787
Sylvan Hills: 0.3716
Morrilton: 0.2183
Hot Springs Lakeside: 0.1790
Little Rock McClellan: 0.1650
Forrest City: 0.0920
Greenbrier: <0.05
Harrison: <0.05
Watson Chapel: <0.05
Little Rock Christian: <0.05
Blytheville: <0.05


To Make Finals:
Pulaski Academy: 0.7376
Wynne: 0.3656
Alma: 0.3383
Sylvan Hills: 0.1518
White Hall: 0.1498
Morrilton: 0.1084
Batesville: 0.0901
Little Rock McClellan: 0.0659
Hot Springs Lakeside: 0.0504
Forrest City: <0.05

To Win State Championship:
Pulaski Academy: 0.5048
Wynne: 0.2254
Alma: 0.1597
White Hall: 0.0558
Sylvan Hills: 0.0502
Morrilton: 0.0502
Batesville: <0.05
Little Rock McClellan: <0.05
Hot Springs Lakeside: <0.05

JacketDad

Interesting info.  Just wondering if these numbers would have been changed much if PA was in the bottom bracket where the competition is much more formidable?

WPWells

PA and England are such prohibitive favorites in their classes, that they cause other teams' chances to drop significantly as they come to the theoretical matchup. If you notice, several teams from the bottom bracket have statistically significant odds of making the final, but most drop out (or at least nose-dive) after their theoretical PA matchup.

Overdahill


MDXPHD

Quote from: Fred Bird on November 09, 2016, 01:13:47 pm
PA and England are such prohibitive favorites in their classes, that they cause other teams' chances to drop significantly as they come to the theoretical matchup. If you notice, several teams from the bottom bracket have statistically significant odds of making the final, but most drop out (or at least nose-dive) after their theoretical PA matchup.

But is PA really that much of a favorite in 5A this year? They have had a couple of very close games. I understand that their part of the bracket makes them a clear favorite to be at War Memorial, but I question the clear favorite of 5A as a whole. Nonetheless, good work and it's interesting to see the numbers.

PA Dad

Quote from: MDXPHD on November 09, 2016, 02:20:51 pm
But is PA really that much of a favorite in 5A this year? They have had a couple of very close games. I understand that their part of the bracket makes them a clear favorite to be at War Memorial, but I question the clear favorite of 5A as a whole. Nonetheless, good work and it's interesting to see the numbers.

I don't think PA is that much of a favorite, although I hope he's right on how it turns out.

Remember, Hillary was a big favorite too, and we know what happened to her.

GhostofRosswoodCC

BUT BUT BUT  No way that is right    White Hall would be 4th in every other conference :P

WPWells

Personally my opinion is that this model overrates White Hall

RamFan06

Of course it does. All Smith teams should be out of the picture after the first round.

Overdahill

Quote from: MDXPHD on November 09, 2016, 02:20:51 pm
But is PA really that much of a favorite in 5A this year? They have had a couple of very close games. I understand that their part of the bracket makes them a clear favorite to be at War Memorial, but I question the clear favorite of 5A as a whole. Nonetheless, good work and it's interesting to see the numbers.

I agree with MDX on this one. Its not obvious why PA odds would be SO much higher than two teams they barely got by during during the season, namely Sylvan Hills and McClellan, unless previous playoff experience comes into the equations (i. e. PA has the most previous playoff success by far although McClellan also went to the finals last year)

ViloniaEaglestoWMS

Quote from: PA Dad on November 09, 2016, 03:31:28 pm
I don't think PA is that much of a favorite, although I hope he's right on how it turns out.

Remember, Hillary was a big favorite too, and we know what happened to her.

and now she's going to prison

STBruin

November 11, 2016, 07:14:17 am #11 Last Edit: November 11, 2016, 07:16:08 am by STBruin
I hope these projections are right too...wonder what factors were taken into account.

WPWells


STBruin


WPWells

The formula for each round is as follows:

P(Team A Makes Round K) = P(Team A Makes Round K-1)*(P(Potential Opponent 1 Makes Round K-1)*P(Team A Beats Potential Opponent 1)+...+P(Potential Opponent N Makes Round K-1)*P(Team A Beats Potential Opponent N))

To get the probability a team beats another team, I used Rich Sanders' historical data and developed a probability that a team wins the game after being favored or an underdog by X points. I then made a theoretical grid outlining the probability that any team beats any other team in the playoffs.

Pwil11


JacketDad

Quote from: Fred Bird on November 11, 2016, 11:02:36 am
The formula for each round is as follows:

P(Team A Makes Round K) = P(Team A Makes Round K-1)*(P(Potential Opponent 1 Makes Round K-1)*P(Team A Beats Potential Opponent 1)+...+P(Potential Opponent N Makes Round K-1)*P(Team A Beats Potential Opponent N))

To get the probability a team beats another team, I used Rich Sanders' historical data and developed a probability that a team wins the game after being favored or an underdog by X points. I then made a theoretical grid outlining the probability that any team beats any other team in the playoffs.
That's good stuff right there, LOL!!!

walkingguy72396

Eager to see how it compares to my WAG predictions.

DevilDog59

Good thing is, none of these projections mean anything come game time. Especially in the playoffs. Best of luck to every team playing tonight, and go Dogs!

WPWells

I will post updates in the morning. I have done 7A, 3A, and 2A, and I am tired.

Red Devil Alum

Quote from: GhostofRosswoodCC on November 09, 2016, 07:09:48 pm
BUT BUT BUT  No way that is right    White Hall would be 4th in every other conference :P
5th in the Central.

WPWells

Yep, I suspected the south was overrated in the model.

WPWells

November 12, 2016, 11:09:28 am #22 Last Edit: November 18, 2016, 11:00:51 pm by Fred Bird
PROJECTIONS BEFORE QUARTERFINALS

After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Quarterfinals:
Pulaski Academy: 1.0000
Alma: 1.0000
Batesville: 1.0000
Forrest City: 1.0000
Wynne: 1.0000
Little Rock McClellan: 1.0000
Watson Chapel: 1.0000
Little Rock Christian: 1.0000

Hot Springs Lakeside: 0.0000
Morrilton: 0.0000
Greenbrier: 0.0000
Harrison: 0.0000
White Hall: 0.0000
Sylvan Hills: 0.0000
Blytheville: 0.0000

Magnolia: 0.0000

6/8 correct in the first round. Would have been 7/8 if not for Watson Chapel's last second score.

To Make Semifinals:
Pulaski Academy: 0.8159
Alma: 0.8159
Batesville: 0.7922
Forrest City: 0.1841
Wynne: 0.8159
Little Rock McClellan: 0.1841
Watson Chapel: 0.1841
Little Rock Christian: 0.2078

To Make Finals:
Pulaski Academy: 0.6876
Alma: 0.2257
Batesville: 0.1800
Forrest City: 0.1152
Wynne: 0.6738
Little Rock McClellan: 0.0905
Watson Chapel: <0.05
Little Rock Christian: <0.05


To Win State Championship:
Pulaski Academy: 0.3488
Alma: 0.1082
Batesville: <0.05
Forrest City: <0.05
Wynne: 0.4593
Little Rock McClellan: <0.05

WPWells

5A is the only class that saw a shift in the favorite to win state. Wynne's impressive win over Morrilton has them as the favorite now, and PA's odds dropped significantly.

Overdahill

Quote from: Fred Bird on November 12, 2016, 11:10:04 am
5A is the only class that saw a shift in the favorite to win state. Wynne's impressive win over Morrilton has them as the favorite now, and PA's odds dropped significantly.

Makes sense from what I have observed

Red Devil Alum

Quote from: Fred Bird on November 12, 2016, 11:10:04 am
5A is the only class that saw a shift in the favorite to win state. Wynne's impressive win over Morrilton has them as the favorite now, and PA's odds dropped significantly.
If you gave me 3-1 odds for PA to win state I would take you up on it.

WPWells

An oddsmaker who wants to actually make money would probably take the probabilities and cut them in half. I'd give you +150 for PA

ricericebaby

Quote from: Fred Bird on November 12, 2016, 11:10:04 am
5A is the only class that saw a shift in the favorite to win state. Wynne's impressive win over Morrilton has them as the favorite now, and PA's odds dropped significantly.

Since I am new to all this, what is your success rate? Have you predicted play-off games in years past? What is your correctly predicted percentage rate?

WPWells

This is the first year I am doing this

tmycjy

Quote from: Fred Bird on November 13, 2016, 02:56:40 pm
This is the first year I am doing this

I think u doing good for a 1st timer

ricericebaby

Quote from: Fred Bird on November 13, 2016, 02:56:40 pm
This is the first year I am doing this

Great! I can't wait to see how close your predictions are!  :)

Red Devil Alum

Quote from: Fred Bird on November 13, 2016, 10:40:14 am
An oddsmaker who wants to actually make money would probably take the probabilities and cut them in half. I'd give you +150 for PA
Give me 2-1 and you're done.

WPWells

November 18, 2016, 11:04:51 pm #32 Last Edit: November 28, 2016, 10:22:56 am by Fred Bird
PROJECTIONS BEFORE SEMIFINALS

After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Quarterfinals:
Pulaski Academy: 1.0000
Alma: 1.0000
Batesville: 1.0000
Forrest City: 1.0000
Wynne: 1.0000
Little Rock McClellan: 1.0000
Watson Chapel: 1.0000
Little Rock Christian: 1.0000

Hot Springs Lakeside: 0.0000
Morrilton: 0.0000
Greenbrier: 0.0000
Harrison: 0.0000
White Hall: 0.0000
Sylvan Hills: 0.0000
Blytheville: 0.0000

Magnolia: 0.0000

6/8 correct in the first round. Would have been 7/8 if not for Watson Chapel's last second score.

To Make Semifinals:
Pulaski Academy: 1.0000
Alma: 0.0000
Batesville: 1.0000
Forrest City: 0.0000
Wynne: 1.0000
Little Rock McClellan: 0.0000
Watson Chapel: 1.0000
Little Rock Christian: 0.0000

To Make Finals:
Pulaski Academy: 0.9453
Batesville: 0.0547
Wynne: 0.9453
Watson Chapel: 0.0547

To Win State Championship:
Pulaski Academy: 0.4226
Batesville: <0.05
Wynne: 0.5687
Watson Chapel: <0.05

Overdahill

Curious that PA shows as a stronger favorite this week vs Batesville than last week vs FC. I doubt that many PA supporters feel that way. Most (if not all) would consider Batesville a much bigger threat. I know I do

PA Dad

Quote from: Overdahill on November 19, 2016, 08:13:38 am
Curious that PA shows as a stronger favorite this week vs Batesville than last week vs FC. I doubt that many PA supporters feel that way. Most (if not all) would consider Batesville a much bigger threat. I know I do

I can't add, much less understand statistics, but I agree.  Batesville is a much more formidable opponent than FC.

Red Devil Alum

How did Wynne pass PA as the favorite to win state in your predictions?

Overdahill

Quote from: Red Devil Alum on November 20, 2016, 05:59:31 pm
How did Wynne pass PA as the favorite to win state in your predictions?

By destroying Morrilton I believe

WPWells


Overdahill

Hi Fred, is there a final probability for the Wynne/PA throw down? Thanks!

WPWells

Yes - I didn't get 5A and 2A posted this afternoon, and now the internet is down on my laptop for some reason, and I don't feel like making a long post on my phone. I'll update in the morning.

Overdahill


WPWells

PROJECTIONS BEFORE SEMIFINALS

After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Quarterfinals:
Pulaski Academy: 1.0000
Alma: 1.0000
Batesville: 1.0000
Forrest City: 1.0000
Wynne: 1.0000
Little Rock McClellan: 1.0000
Watson Chapel: 1.0000
Little Rock Christian: 1.0000

Hot Springs Lakeside: 0.0000
Morrilton: 0.0000
Greenbrier: 0.0000
Harrison: 0.0000
White Hall: 0.0000
Sylvan Hills: 0.0000
Blytheville: 0.0000

Magnolia: 0.0000

6/8 correct in the first round. Would have been 7/8 if not for Watson Chapel's last second score.

To Make Semifinals:
Pulaski Academy: 1.0000
Alma: 0.0000
Batesville: 1.0000
Forrest City: 0.0000
Wynne: 1.0000
Little Rock McClellan: 0.0000
Watson Chapel: 1.0000
Little Rock Christian: 0.0000

To Make Finals:
Pulaski Academy: 1.0000
Batesville: 0.0000
Wynne: 1.0000
Watson Chapel: 0.0000

To Win State Championship:
Pulaski Academy: 0.4182
Wynne: 0.5818

Score Projection
Wynne 42
Pulaski Academy 40

Overdahill

Thanks Fred. Sounds like a realistic assessment, i. e. a game that should be close and could go either way with a  break or two. I can't wait to see how it plays out on the field.

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