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Running Projected Classifications 2020-2022

Started by AT, October 31, 2018, 12:01:38 pm

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AT

October 31, 2018, 12:01:38 pm Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 12:11:47 pm by Almatrackster
Not even close to done yet but all enrollment figures are out for projections next classification cycle and I'll put some 5A football thoughts here

1. Blytheville's last football season in 5A very well could be next year

2. Brookland has a higher ADM average than Blytheville, meaning they will be above Blytheville in class or in the same class.

3. Camden Fairview has a lowering ADM again. I'm not confident they will be in 4A like I am Blytheville, but they are just above Brookland. They will be lower 5A at most.

4. eStem, a non football playing school, has grown abundantly but will not count towards pushing a school down in 5A if they end up being 5A. They are above Blytheville and just below Brookland in ADM.

5. Forrest City is in the same boat as Camden Fairview. They are losing students at a fairly high rate and will be either lower 5A (probably this) or upper 4A (possible). FC is above CF though by .333 repeating on ADM average so CF would drop before them.

6. Greenwood ADM average dropped by 3, but no current 5A school has passed them. If no 6A school drops below them or a 5A school passes them, then they will probably drop back down to 5A.

7. Little Rock Hall's ADM is out of WHACK. Holy moly they dropped enrollment like a rock if I'm calculating this right. They are below Greenwood AND Greene County Tech (the current biggest calculated 5A school), so Greenwood may not drop.

HorseFeathers

Where you getting the #'s from? I had the ade link bookmarked, but it doesn't work now...

WTD

Greenwood back down to 5A? McClellan/Fair 6A or 7A? Ready to see this!

JessieP

Quote from: Almatrackster on October 31, 2018, 12:01:38 pm
Not even close to done yet but all enrollment figures are out for projections next classification cycle and I'll put some 5A football thoughts here

1. Blytheville's last football season in 5A very well could be next year

Blytheville could do some serious damage in the 4A.

RazorDad

October 31, 2018, 03:33:38 pm #4 Last Edit: October 31, 2018, 04:09:09 pm by RazorDad
Here's my guess (for football only):

Jonesboro to 7A

Van Buren, Fair/McClellan, Parkview to 6A

Hall, Jacksonville, Brookland and Pea Ridge to 5A

Hope to 4A

Edit - Actually I show Blytheville barely staying in 5A

The_Pioneer

I'd be interested in the current numbers for 5A.

Hoghead2

Quote from: RazorDad on October 31, 2018, 03:33:38 pm
Here's my guess (for football only):

Jonesboro to 7A

Van Buren, Fair/McClellan, Parkview to 6A

Hall, Jacksonville, Brookland and Pea Ridge to 5A

Hope to 4A

Edit - Actually I show Blytheville barely staying in 5A
Hope to 4A ? What's the numbers  on Hope ?

AHS06

October 31, 2018, 04:25:46 pm #7 Last Edit: October 31, 2018, 04:28:21 pm by AHS06
Quote from: RazorDad on October 31, 2018, 03:33:38 pm
Here's my guess (for football only):

Jonesboro to 7A

Van Buren, Fair/McClellan, Parkview to 6A

Hall, Jacksonville, Brookland and Pea Ridge to 5A

Hope to 4A

Edit - Actually I show Blytheville barely staying in 5A
What are you looking at? None of this will happen. With the exception of Fair/McClellan being 7A/6A.


The_Pioneer

Brookland moving up wouldn't surprise me.  Would be a disaster for them but we've heard it was going to happen eventually.

sevenof400

If this happens:

Quote from: RazorDad on October 31, 2018, 03:33:38 pm
Here's my guess (for football only):

Jonesboro to 7A

Van Buren, Fair/McClellan, Parkview to 6A

Hall, Jacksonville, Brookland and Pea Ridge to 5A

Hope to 4A

Edit - Actually I show Blytheville barely staying in 5A

The world may come to an end.
Can you imagine the multitude of travel issues this would cause? 


NEASPORTSFAN

November 01, 2018, 08:17:17 am #11 Last Edit: November 01, 2018, 08:30:55 am by NEASPORTSFAN
you have to be careful with this....for example, it is showing 907 for batesville high school, but batesville high school has 9-12th grade. 4 classes. AAA bases their numbers off 3 classes over a 3 year period. the Real number for batesville is somewhere around 750, or less. Batesville jr. high now has 745, and thats 3 classes, and its also the biggest numbers they have ever had. This also might be the case at other schools.

RazorDad

Quote from: NEASPORTSFAN on November 01, 2018, 08:17:17 am
you have to be careful with this....for example, it is showing 907 for batesville high school, but batesville high school has 9-12th grade. 4 classes. AAA bases their numbers off 3 classes over a 2 year period. the Real number for batesville is somewhere around 750, or less. Batesville jr. high now has 745, and thats 3 classes, and its also the biggest numbers they have ever had. This also might be the case at other schools.

You have to add the feeder junior high school(s) 9th grade enrollment if the HS doesn't have a 9th grade. The AAA numbers are based on a three year average of grades 9-11. The enrollment per grade is on the ADE website.

HorseFeathers


AHS06

Quote from: HorseFeathers on November 01, 2018, 08:32:08 am
Their revamped website is throwing me for a loop.....got a link to enrollment by grade?
Scroll the categories on the left and select enrollment by grade.

SUGARTOWN

Quote from: WTD on October 31, 2018, 12:17:42 pm
Greenwood back down to 5A? McClellan/Fair 6A or 7A? Ready to see this!

They've already said that McClellan/Fair will be 7A.

JoeDirt

Quote from: NEASPORTSFAN on November 01, 2018, 08:17:17 am
you have to be careful with this....for example, it is showing 907 for batesville high school, but batesville high school has 9-12th grade. 4 classes. AAA bases their numbers off 3 classes over a 3 year period. the Real number for batesville is somewhere around 750, or less. Batesville jr. high now has 745, and thats 3 classes, and its also the biggest numbers they have ever had. This also might be the case at other schools.

It's based off 9-11, not 9-12 like your original post said.

friscokid

Once the Fair-McClellan consolidation is complete, 7A should be set for the next decade. Jonesboro is certainly growing but it has a long way to go to pass Bentonville West, which is also growing, probably faster. Someone would have to split down the road.

72113

Quote from: friscokid on November 01, 2018, 10:06:22 am
Once the Fair-McClellan consolidation is complete, 7A should be set for the next decade. Jonesboro is certainly growing but it has a long way to go to pass Bentonville West, which is also growing, probably faster. Someone would have to split down the road.

When that happens which Fort Smith school will go to the central? 

DerekOxford

Quote from: 72113 on November 01, 2018, 10:12:36 am
When that happens which Fort Smith school will go to the central?

Both FSM schools are already in the Central.

NEASPORTSFAN

Quote from: JoeDirt on November 01, 2018, 09:16:59 am
It's based off 9-11, not 9-12 like your original post said.

thats not what my original post said. my point was you cant just look at the high school number as listed, you have to look at each grade. some high schools are 9-12, some are 10-12, thats the point, you have to add the classes that count each year. 9-11. if you look at the ade website it is misleading because some schools it gives a total for 4 classes and some for 3, just based on how that school operates.

HorseFeathers

Gotta filter it....the link goes to what looks like a campus enrollment

NEASPORTSFAN


NEASPORTSFAN

Quote from: The_Pioneer on October 31, 2018, 06:18:22 pm
Brookland moving up wouldn't surprise me.  Would be a disaster for them but we've heard it was going to happen eventually.

brookland wont move looking at their numbers. they are up some but still well behind the top of 4a

TrenchHogs

Quote from: sevenof400 on October 31, 2018, 07:01:26 pm
If this happens:

The world may come to an end.
Can you imagine the multitude of travel issues this would cause?

Yep.... I was about to say... Cabot would be the closest 7A school but that is still over 100 miles one way.... Next closest would be even further by 20+ miles

TrenchHogs

I could see Gosnell dropping down to 3A before Blytheville dropping to 4A. Jacksonville and Hall haven't dropped enough to be in consideration for dropping... atleast not yet.

I could see Valley View moving back down to 4A but it is hard to judge the Jonesboro area due to them having 572 separate school districts so close together.

AHS06

Quote from: TrenchHogs on November 01, 2018, 12:35:37 pm
Yep.... I was about to say... Cabot would be the closest 7A school but that is still over 100 miles one way.... Next closest would be even further by 20+ miles
Imagine the trip to Fort Smith.

RazorDad

Quote from: SUGARTOWN on November 01, 2018, 09:10:57 am
They've already said that McClellan/Fair will be 7A.

True, the first year of the new HS will be 7A as the combined enrollment is based on the current cycle's numbers (2015-17). But the three-year average dropped 12.8% this year so unless that trend is reversed, they will move to 6A unless the AAA decides otherwise. 

HorseFeathers

Quote from: NEASPORTSFAN on November 01, 2018, 08:17:17 am
you have to be careful with this....for example, it is showing 907 for batesville high school, but batesville high school has 9-12th grade. 4 classes. AAA bases their numbers off 3 classes over a 3 year period. the Real number for batesville is somewhere around 750, or less. Batesville jr. high now has 745, and thats 3 classes, and its also the biggest numbers they have ever had. This also might be the case at other schools.

Batesville has 720 9-11 by latest ade #'s

AT


The_Pioneer

There used to be a link around here for the AAA enrollment numbers for each school/classification.

AT


Missco

Gosnell is in no danger over moving to 3A. Blytheville will eventually move down in a few years but aren't losing as many kids to KIPP as they were.

72113

Quote from: DerekOxford on November 01, 2018, 10:24:02 am
Both FSM schools are already in the Central.

I understand that.  My point was that if the new LR school bumps Van Buren to 6A then it is logical that one of the FS schools will go to the west and one will stay in the central. 

NEASPORTSFAN

November 02, 2018, 08:23:07 am #34 Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 10:27:59 am by NEASPORTSFAN
this is what it may look like for NON Football sports, based on numbers

5A East

Jonesboro
west memphis
GCT
Marion
Paragould
Nettleton
Batesville
Wynne

WEST

Van Buren
Siloam Springs
Mountain Home
Alma
Russellville
Greenbrier
Vilonia
Greenwood

South

Benton
El dorado
Lakeside
Pine Bluff
Lake Hamilton
Sheridan
Hot Springs
Texarkana


Central

Maumelle
Beebe
Hall
Searcy
Parkview
Sylvan Hills
jacksonville
Christian

SWAT524


wait4it

I see White Hall in two different conferences.  And of course this is merely speculation but I think there will be a lot of shifting before the final classes and conferences are set in 5A and 4A.  The upper classes are fairly easy to figure out...

AT

Quote from: SWAT524 on November 02, 2018, 09:49:16 am
Batesville to 4A in football

I'm not seeing this. Their enrollment has gone up a bit.

NEASPORTSFAN

November 02, 2018, 10:07:54 am #38 Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 10:19:10 am by NEASPORTSFAN
Quote from: SWAT524 on November 02, 2018, 09:49:16 am
Batesville to 4A in football

no, batesville is rapidly growing, has passed several schools in enrollment, such as white hall, magnolia, watson chapel, etc

batesville average enrollment has gone from 660 to 700.

NEASPORTSFAN

Quote from: wait4it on November 02, 2018, 09:53:55 am
I see White Hall in two different conferences.  And of course this is merely speculation but I think there will be a lot of shifting before the final classes and conferences are set in 5A and 4A.  The upper classes are fairly easy to figure out...
whoops, fixed it. supposed to be jacksonville in the central. white hall or magnolia in the south

AT


RazorDad

Quote from: NEASPORTSFAN on November 02, 2018, 10:11:02 am
whoops, fixed it. supposed to be jacksonville in the central. white hall or magnolia in the south
Just a casual observation, you need to add LRCA in and bump one of those schools out.

NEASPORTSFAN

Quote from: RazorDad on November 02, 2018, 10:22:54 am
Just a casual observation, you need to add LRCA in and bump one of those schools out.

good point. obviously, they would go into the central, shifting another team south

NEASPORTSFAN

benton would most likely move to the south. magnolia and or white hall get pushed to 4a

AT

I wouldn't say Gosnell wouldn't drop to 3A for sure...I would lean they stay 4A, but they'll be at the bottom of it. Their ADM average is 20 above Genoa Central.

AT


DEVIL DOG HOG

Huntsville will be the first 5A team to drop down.

young_gun

1   7A   Har-Ber   
2   7A   Springdale   
3   7A   Cabot   2557
4   7A   Conway   2205.67
5   7A   Bryant   2093
6   7A   Fayetteville   2081.33
7   7A   LR Central   1841
8   7A   North Little Rock   1717.33
9   7A   Rogers   1602.67
10   7A   Heritage   1491.67
11   7A   Bentonville West   
12   7A   Southside   
13   7A   Northside   
14   7A   Bentonville   
15   7A   McClellan/Fair   
16   7A   LR Catholic   
17   6A   Van Buren   1314.33
18   6A   West Memphis   
19   6A   Jonesboro   
20   6A   Benton   1213
21   6A   Russellville   1200
22   6A   Lake Hamilton   1021
23   6A   Sylvan Hills   1009.33
24   6A   El Dorado   985.33
25   6A   Marion   956.33
26   6A   Mountain Home   943.33
27   6A   Sheridan   936
28   6A   Siloam Springs   930.67
29   6A   Searcy   896.67
30   6A   Pine Bluff   893.33
31   6A   Greenwood   890.67
32   6A   Parkview   864
33   5A   Greenbrier   825.67
34   5A   Greene County Tech   821
35   5A   Maumelle   812.67
36   5A   Alma   785
37   5A   Texarkana   783.33
38   5A   Jacksonville   782.67
39   5A   Beebe   769.67
40   5A   Vilonia   758.33
41   5A   Hall High School   747.67
42   5A   Hot Springs Lakeside   743.33
43   5A   Nettleton   740.33
44   5A   Hot Springs   732
45   5A   Paragould   714.33
46   5A   Batesville   686.67
47   5A   White Hall   684.67
48   5A   Watson Chapel   641.33
49   5A   Valley View   626.67
50   5A   Magnolia   618
51   5A   Clarksville   607.67
52   5A   Harrison   600.67
53   5A   Wynne   591.67
54   5A   Farmington   582.33
55   5A   DeQueen   534.33
56   5A   Forrest City   517.67
57   5A   Camden Fairview   517.33
58   5A   Morrilton   514
59   5A   Brookland   506
60   5A   Pea Ridge   483
61   5A   Huntsville   476.33
62   5A   Blytheville   473
63   5A   LR Christian   
64   5A   Pulaski Academy   
65   4A   Dardanelle   472.33
66   4A   Mills   465.33
67   4A   Hope   461.33
68   4A   Gravette   460
69   4A   Prairie Grove   459.33
70   4A   Pocahontas   457.33
71   4A   Berryville   441.33
72   4A   Hamburg   435.67
73   4A   Batesville Southside   434.33
74   4A   Monticello   431
75   4A   Lonoke   429.67
76   4A   Westside Jonesboro   426.67
77   4A   Ozark   417.67
78   4A   Bauxite   408
79   4A   Nashville   407.33
80   4A   Malvern   404
81   4A   Robinson   400.67
82   4A   Arkadelphia   395
83   4A   Highland   393.33
84   4A   Crossett   385.67
85   4A   Heber Springs   383.33
86   4A   Mena   378
87   4A   Pottsville   377
88   4A   Star City   365.33
89   4A   Stuttgart   356.33
90   4A   Warren   353
91   4A   Fountain Lake   350
92   4A   Trumann   343
93   4A   Ashdown   329
94   4A   Dover   328.67
95   4A   Waldron   324.67
96   4A   Elkins   319.67
97   4A   Haskell Harmony Grove   314
98   4A   Dumas   312.33
99   4A   Helena   311.33
100   4A   Gentry   309
101   4A   Bald Knob   305.67
102   4A   Lamar   303.67
103   4A   Clinton   303
104   4A   Cave City   301
105   4A   Green Forest   300
106   4A   Rivercrest   298
107   4A   Gosnell   297
108   4A   DeWitt   293
109   4A   Lincoln   286.67
110   4A   Subiaco   
111   4A   Shiloh Christian   
112   4A   CAC   
113   3A   Harrisburg   286.67
114   3A   Riverview   285
115   3A   Mayflower   279
116   3A   Genoa Central   277.33
117   3A   Booneville   270
118   3A   Mountain View   268.33
119   3A   Smackover   264
120   3A   Osceola   251.67
121   3A   Fouke   251.33
122   3A   West Fork   245
123   3A   McGehee   244.67
124   3A   Bismarck   244.33
125   3A   Newport   243.33
126   3A   Paris   241.67
127   3A   Glen Rose   241.67
128   3A   Drew Central   240.33
129   3A   Manila   239.33
130   3A   Centerpoint   227.33
131   3A   Prescott   227.33
132   3A   Perryville   226
133   3A   Dollarway   221.667
134   3A   Atkins   216.33
135   3A   Piggott   213.67
136   3A   Charleston   213
137   3A   Corning   208.67
138   3A   Two Rivers   207.33
139   3A   Walnut Ridge   205.67
140   3A   Danville   204.67
141   3A   Lake Village   201
142   3A   Palestine-Wheatley   201
143   3A   Greenland   200
144   3A   Camden Harmony Grove   200
145   3A   Cedarville   199.33
146   3A   Hoxie   198.67
147   3A   Rose Bud   197.67
148   3A   Rison   197
149   3A   Jessieville   195.67
150   3A   Marshall   195
151   3A   Melbourne   191.67
152   3A   Horatio   188.67
153   3A   Lavaca   188.33
154   3A   Barton   185
155   3A   Salem   182.67
156   3A   Mansfield   181
157   3A   Yellville   180.3
158   3A   Harding Academy   
159   3A   Baptist Prep   
160   3A   Episcopal   
161   2A   Cedar Ridge   180
162   2A   Quitman   175
163   2A   EPC   173.33
164   2A   Magnet Cove   173
165   2A   Lee County   172
166   2A   Hackett   166.67
167   2A   Parkers Chapel   165
168   2A   Junction City   164.33
169   2A   England   162.3
170   2A   Earle   160.33
171   2A   Gurdon   158
172   2A   McCrory   157.67
173   2A   Mountainburg   157.33
174   2A   Carlisle   155.67
175   2A   Fordyce   154.33
176   2A   Mufreesboro   153
177   2A   Westside JC   152.33
178   2A   Poyen   151
179   2A   Spring Hill   146.67
180   2A   Cutter Morning Star   144.67
181   2A   Hazen   143
182   2A   Woodlawn   142.33
183   2A   Cross County   140.67
184   2A   Bigelow   136.33
185   2A   Des Arc   136
186   2A   Hector   135.33
187   2A   Lafayette County   133.67
188   2A   Midland   133.33
189   2A   Hampton   132.33
190   2A   Magazine   131.67
191   2A   Rector   128.67
192   2A   Dierks   127.33
193   2A   Foreman   126.67
194   2A   Decatur   125.67
195   2A   Mountain Pine   118
196   2A   Marked Tree   117.33
197   2A   Mount Ida   110.33
198   2A   Bearden   105.33
199   2A   Hermitage   105
200   2A   Clarendon   102.33
201   2A   Western Yell   92.33
202   2A   Brinkley   90
203   2A   Marvell   88
204   2A   Mineral Springs   87.33
205   2A   Augusta   84.67
206   2A   Strong   68.67
207   2A   Conway Christian   

This is what I came up with including teams in 8 man football. Left some blank because not sure of enrollment on private schools and not sure all the feeder junior highs for the upper classifications. Teams in each classification.

7A-16
6A-16
5A-32
4A-48
3A-48
2A-47

My question is are they going to keep the numbers in each classification the same and how will 8 man football affect this?

WTD

Central
PA
LRCA
Jacksonville
Beebe
Hall
Vilonia
Maumelle
Forrest City

South
Texarkana
Lakeside
Hot Springs
Magnolia
Dequeen
Camden Fairview
White Hall
Watson Chapel

East
GCT
Nettleton
Paragould
Batesville
Valley View
Brookland
Wynne
Blytheville

West
Alma
Clarksville
Harrison
Farmington
Pea Ridge
Morrilton
Greenbrier
Huntsville

friscokid

Wow. If you're off by just 2/3 of a kid either way ... Dardanelle could be looking at 5A. Did not expect that.

Also, you will probably have to roll Hartford's numbers into Hackett. I assume that's how the AAA will treat it.

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