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2020-2022 Projected Classifications (1st Draft Completed)

Started by AT, November 05, 2018, 10:12:36 pm

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AT

November 05, 2018, 10:12:36 pm Last Edit: November 06, 2018, 03:05:54 pm by Almatrackster
Bolded Will be football classes since this is FearlessFriday after all, parentheses will be classes for all other sports.

7A. Har-Ber (6A)
7A. Cabot (6A)
7A. Springdale (6A)
7A. Bentonville (6A)
7A. Conway (6A)
7A. Fayetteville (6A)
7A. Bryant (6A)
7A. North Little Rock (6A)
7A. Rogers (6A)
7A. Little Rock Central (6A)
7A. Heritage (6A)
7A. Fort Smith Northside (6A)
7A. Fort Smith Southside (6A)
7A. Bentonville West (6A)
7A. Jonesboro (6A)
7A. Catholic (6A)

6A. Van Buren (5A)
6A. Little Rock Southwest (5A)
6A. Benton (5A)
6A. Russellville (5A)
6A. West Memphis (5A)
6A. Sylvan Hills (5A)
6A. Siloam Springs (5A)
6A. Lake Hamilton (5A)
6A. El Dorado (5A)
6A. Marion (5A)
6A. Mountain Home (5A)
6A. Sheridan (5A)
6A. Searcy (5A)
6A. Pine Bluff (5A)
6A. Greenwood (5A)
6A. Parkview (5A)

5A. Greene County Tech (5A)
5A. Hall (5A)
5A. Greenbrier (5A)
5A. Hot Springs Lakeside (5A)
5A. Maumelle (5A)
5A. Alma (5A)
5A. Texarkana (5A)
5A. Jacksonville (5A)
5A. Vilonia (5A)
5A. Nettleton (5A)
5A. Beebe (5A)
5A. Hot Springs (5A)
5A. Paragould (5A)
5A. Batesville (5A)
5A. White Hall (5A)
5A. Watson Chapel (5A)
5A. Valley View (4A)
5A. Magnolia (4A)
5A. Clarksville (4A)
5A. Harrison (4A)
5A. Wynne (4A)
5A. Farmington (4A)
5A. DeQueen (4A)
5A. Pea Ridge (4A)
5A. Forrest City (4A)
5A. Camden Fairview (4A)
5A. Morrilton (4A)
5A. Brookland (4A)
NA. eStem (4A)
5A. Hope (4A)
5A. Huntsville (4A)
5A. Little Rock Christian (4A)
5A. Pulaski Academy (4A)

4A. Blytheville (4A)
4A. Dardanelle (4A)
4A. Mills (4A)
4A. Gravette (4A)
4A. Prairie Grove (4A)
4A. Pocahontas (4A)
4A. Robinson (4A)
4A. Berryville (4A)
4A. Hamburg (4A)
4A. Southside Batesville (4A)
4A. Monticello (4A)
4A. Lonoke (4A)
4A. Jonesboro Westside (4A)
4A. Ozark (4A)
4A. Bauxite (4A)
4A. Nashville (4A)
4A. Malvern (4A)
4A. Arkadelphia (4A)
4A. Highland (4A)
4A. Crossett (4A)
4A. Heber Springs (4A)
4A. Mena (4A)
4A. Pottsville (4A)
4A. Star City (4A)
4A. Stuttgart (4A)
4A. Warren (4A)
4A. Fountain Lake (4A)
4A. Gentry (4A)
4A. Trumann (4A)
4A. Dover (4A)
4A. Ashdown (4A)
4A. Waldron (3A)
NA. Lisa Academy (3A)
4A. Elkins (3A)
4A. Haskell Harmony Grove (3A)
4A. Dumas (3A)
4A. West Helena Central (3A)
4A. Bald Knob (3A)
4A. Lamar (3A)
4A. Clinton (3A)
4A. Cave City (3A)
4A. Green Forest (3A)
4A. Rivercrest (3A)
4A. Gosnell (3A)
4A. DeWitt (3A)
4A. Subiaco Academy (3A)
4A. Shiloh Christian (3A)
4A. Central Arkansas Christian (3A)
4A. Baptist Prep (3A)

3A. Lincoln (3A)
3A. Harrisburg (3A)
3A. Riverview (3A)
3A. Mayflower (3A)
3A. Genoa Central (3A)
3A. Booneville (3A)
3A. Mountain View (3A)
3A. Smackover (3A)
NA. Bergman (3A)
3A. Osceola (3A)
3A. Fouke (3A)
3A. West Fork (3A)
3A. McGehee (3A)
3A. Bismarck (3A)
3A. Newport (3A)
3A. Paris (3A)
3A. Glen Rose (3A)
3A. Drew Central (3A)
3A. Manila (3A)
3A. Prescott (3A)
3A. Centerpoint (3A)
3A. Perryville (3A)
3A. Dollarway (3A)
3A. Charleston (3A)
3A. Atkins (3A)
3A. Piggott (3A)
3A. Corning (3A)
3A. Hackett (3A)
3A. Two Rivers (3A)
NA. Cossatot River (3A)
3A. Walnut Ridge (3A)
3A. Danville (3A)
NA. Jacksonville Lighthouse (3A)
3A. Palestine-Wheatley (3A)
3A. Lake Village (3A)
NA. Haas Hall Fayetteville (3A)
3A. Greenland (3A)
3A. Camden Harmony Grove (3A)
3A. Cedarville (3A)
3A. Hoxie (3A)
NA. Valley Springs (3A)
NA. Pangburn (3A)
3A. Rose Bud (3A)
3A. Rison (3A)
3A. Jessieville (3A)
3A. Marshall (3A)
8M. Episcopal Collegiate (3A)
NA. Tuckerman (2A)
3A. Melbourne (2A)
3A. Mansfield (2A)
NA. Arkansas Arts Academy (2A)
3A. Horatio (2A)
3A. Lavaca (2A)
3A. Barton (2A)
3A. Salem (2A)
NA. Riverside (2A)
3A. Yellville-Summit (2A)
3A. Harding Academy (2A)

2A. Cedar Ridge (2A)
2A. Sloan Hendrix (2A)
NA. Marmaduke (2A)
NA. Flippin (2A)
2A. Quitman (2A)
NA. KIPP Delta (2A)
NA. Buffalo Island Central (2A)
2A. East Poinsett (2A)
2A. Magnet Cove (2A)
2A. Lee County (2A)
NA. Haas Hall Bentonville (2A)
NA. White County Central (2A)
2A. Parkers Chapel (2A)
2A. Junction City (2A)
2A. England (2A)
2A. Earle (2A)
2A. Gurdon (2A)
2A. McCrory (2A)
2A. Mountainburg (2A)
NA. Maumelle Charter (2A)
2A. Carlisle (2A)
2A. Fordyce (2A)
2A. Murfreesboro (2A)
2A. JC-Westside (2A)
NA. Cotter (2A)
2A. Poyen (2A)
NA. Eureka Springs (2A)
2A. Spring Hill (2A)
2A. Cutter Morning Star (2A)
2A. Hazen (2A)
8M. Woodlawn (2A)
2A. Cross County (2A)
2A. Bigelow (2A)
2A. Hector (2A)
2A. Lafayette County (2A)
2A. Midland (2A)
2A. Des Arc (2A)
NA. Bay (2A)
2A. Hampton (2A)
NA. Lisa Academy-North (2A)
2A. Magazine (2A)
NA. Caddo Hills (2A)
NA. South Side Bee Branch (2A)
NA. Acorn (2A)
2A. Rector (2A)
2A. Dierks (2A)
2A. Foreman (2A)
8M. Decatur (2A)
NA. Future School of Fort Smith (2A)
NA. Alepna (2A)
2A. Mountain Pine (2A)
2A. Bearden (2A)
2A. Marked Tree (2A)
NA. Mount Vernon-Enola (2A)
NA. Izard County (2A)
NA. Jasper (1A)
NA. County Line (1A)
NA. Blevins (1A)
NA. Concord (1A)
NA. Ouachita (1A)
2A. Mount Ida (1A)
NA. KIPP Blytheville (1A)
NA. Nemo Vista (1A)
NA. Maynard (1A)
NA. Norfork (1A)
NA. Hillcrest (1A)
NA. Scranton (1A)
8M. Hermitage (1A)
NA. West Side GF (1A)
NA. Bradford (1A)
2A. Clarendon (1A)
NA. Armorel (1A)
NA. Mammoth Spring (1A)
NA. Nevada (1A)
NA. Wonderview (1A)
NA. St. Joseph (1A)
2A. Western Yell County (1A)
2A. Conway Christian (1A)
NA. Lead Hill (1A)
2A. Brinkley (1A)
NA. Calico Rock (1A)
2A. Marvell-Elaine (1A)
NA. Viola (1A)
NA. Shirley (1A)
2A. Mineral Springs (1A)
8M. Augusta (1A)
NA. Omaha (1A)
NA. Guy-Perkins (1A)
NA. Kirby (1A)
NA. Bradley (1A)
NA. Taylor (1A)
NA. Mulberry (1A)
2A. Strong (1A)

NA. Dermott (1A)
NA. Quest Academy (1A)
NA. NWA Classical (1A)
NA. Western Grove (1A)
NA. Emerson (1A)
NA. Kingston (1A)
NA. Trinity Christian (1A)
NA. Abundant Life (1A)
NA. Crowley's Ridge Academy (1A)
NA. St. Paul (1A)
NA. Rural Special (1A)
NA. Deer (1A)
NA. Sacred Heart (1A)
NA. Ridgefield Christian (1A)
NA. Haas Hall Rogers (1A)
NA. Timbo (1A)
NA. Oark (1A)
NA. The New School (1A)
NA. Oden (1A)
NA. Bruno-Pyatt (1A)
NA. Haas Hall Springdale (1A)
NA. St. Joe (1A)
NA. Umpire (1A)
NA. Mount Judea (1A)
NA. Sparkman (1A)
NA. Arkansas School for the Deaf (1A)
NA. Arkansas School for the Blind (1A)
NA. AR School for Math, Science, Arts (1A)

beach bum


beach bum

Lamar to 4A shocks me.... they are not in what is a thought of high growth area. I imagine Coach Jones would be able to fill us in as the possible cause for them having so many 9th through 11th grade or another Lamar poster cause that does not even have margin of error for them to stay in 3A. They are easily in the 4A numbers for 2020-2022. Is that a trend for them to stay 4A or just a couple massive grades?

beach bum

Outside of that there is actually slightly less change than normal it seems.....

x14113

Quote from: beach bum on November 05, 2018, 10:47:53 pm
Lamar to 4A shocks me.... they are not in what is a thought of high growth area. I imagine Coach Jones would be able to fill us in as the possible cause for them having so many 9th through 11th grade or another Lamar poster cause that does not even have margin of error for them to stay in 3A. They are easily in the 4A numbers for 2020-2022. Is that a trend for them to stay 4A or just a couple massive grades?

Here's the enrollment by grade for the entire district.

https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/ReportList/Districts/EnrollmentByGrade.aspx?year=27&search=lamar&pagesize=100

As you can see, Lamar currently has the numbers to not only jump to 4A, but also stay there.

It doesn't hurt that this is an area that has sustained growth where surrounding areas are shrinking, especially to the south and west.

Demographics could be playing a role, too. Compare this: https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/ReportList/Districts/EnrollmentByRace.aspx?year=27&search=lamar&pagesize=100

To this: https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/ReportList/Districts/EnrollmentByRace.aspx?year=27&search=clarksville&pagesize=100

While I can't speak for individual intent, the fact that white enrollment at Clarksville has been steadily shrinking for a decade now is pretty telling.

That said, it's not all roses in Johnson County--a major industry will be closing by next month, which may cut short Lamar's stint in 4A (as well as Clarksville's in 5A).

philip.seaton

Quote from: Almatrackster on November 05, 2018, 10:12:36 pm
Bolded Will be football classes since this is FearlessFriday after all, parentheses will be classes for all other sports.

7A. Har-Ber (6A)
7A. Cabot (6A)
7A. Springdale (6A)
7A. Bentonville (6A)
7A. Conway (6A)
7A. Fayetteville (6A)
7A. Bryant (6A)
7A. North Little Rock (6A)
7A. Rogers (6A)
7A. Little Rock Central (6A)
7A. Heritage (6A)
7A. Fort Smith Northside (6A)
7A. Fort Smith Southside (6A)
7A. Bentonville West (6A)
7A. Jonesboro (6A)
7A. Catholic (6A)

6A. Van Buren (5A)
6A. Little Rock Southwest (5A)
6A. Benton (5A)
6A. Russellville (5A)
6A. West Memphis (5A)
6A. Sylvan Hills (5A)
6A. Siloam Springs (5A)
6A. Lake Hamilton (5A)
6A. El Dorado (5A)
6A. Marion (5A)
6A. Mountain Home (5A)
6A. Sheridan (5A)
6A. Searcy (5A)
6A. Pine Bluff (5A)
6A. Greenwood (5A)
6A. Parkview (5A)

5A. Greene County Tech (5A)
5A. Hall (5A)
5A. Greenbrier (5A)
5A. Hot Springs Lakeside (5A)
5A. Maumelle (5A)
5A. Alma (5A)
5A. Texarkana (5A)
5A. Jacksonville (5A)
5A. Vilonia (5A)
5A. Nettleton (5A)
5A. Beebe (5A)
5A. Hot Springs (5A)
5A. Paragould (5A)
5A. Batesville (5A)
5A. White Hall (5A)
5A. Watson Chapel (5A)
5A. Valley View (4A)
5A. Magnolia (4A)
5A. Clarksville (4A)
5A. Harrison (4A)
5A. Wynne (4A)
5A. Farmington (4A)
5A. DeQueen (4A)
5A. Pea Ridge (4A)
5A. Forrest City (4A)
5A. Camden Fairview (4A)
5A. Morrilton (4A)
5A. Brookland (4A)
NA. eStem (4A)
5A. Hope (4A)
5A. Huntsville (4A)
5A. Little Rock Christian (4A)
5A. Pulaski Academy (4A)

4A. Blytheville (4A)
4A. Dardanelle (4A)
4A. Mills (4A)
4A. Gravette (4A)
4A. Prairie Grove (4A)
4A. Pocahontas (4A)
4A. Robinson (4A)
4A. Berryville (4A)
4A. Hamburg (4A)
4A. Southside Batesville (4A)
4A. Monticello (4A)
4A. Lonoke (4A)
4A. Jonesboro Westside (4A)
4A. Ozark (4A)
4A. Bauxite (4A)
4A. Nashville (4A)
4A. Malvern (4A)
4A. Arkadelphia (4A)
4A. Highland (4A)
4A. Crossett (4A)
4A. Heber Springs (4A)
4A. Mena (4A)
4A. Pottsville (4A)
4A. Star City (4A)
4A. Stuttgart (4A)
4A. Warren (4A)
4A. Fountain Lake (4A)
4A. Gentry (4A)
4A. Trumann (4A)
4A. Dover (4A)
4A. Ashdown (4A)
4A. Waldron (3A)
NA. Lisa Academy (3A)
4A. Elkins (3A)
4A. Haskell Harmony Grove (3A)
4A. Dumas (3A)
4A. West Helena Central (3A)
4A. Bald Knob (3A)
4A. Lamar (3A)
4A. Clinton (3A)
4A. Cave City (3A)
4A. Green Forest (3A)
4A. Rivercrest (3A)
4A. Gosnell (3A)
4A. DeWitt (3A)
4A. Lincoln (3A)
4A. Harrisburg (3A)
4A. Subiaco Academy (3A)
4A. Shiloh Christian (3A)

3A. Riverview (3A)
3A. Mayflower (3A)
3A. Genoa Central (3A)
3A. Booneville (3A)
3A. Mountain View (3A)
3A. Smackover (3A)
NA. Bergman (3A)
3A. Osceola (3A)
3A. Fouke (3A)
3A. West Fork (3A)
3A. McGehee (3A)
3A. Bismarck (3A)
3A. Newport (3A)
3A. Paris (3A)
3A. Glen Rose (3A)
3A. Drew Central (3A)
3A. Manila (3A)
3A. Prescott (3A)
3A. Centerpoint (3A)
3A. Perryville (3A)
3A. Dollarway (3A)
3A. Charleston (3A)
3A. Atkins (3A)
3A. Piggott (3A)
3A. Corning (3A)
3A. Hackett (3A)
3A. Two Rivers (3A)

to be continued tomorrow...

Great job, but one thing, Central Arkansas Christian skews one back down to 3A don't they?

AT

CAC had 2A numbers this cycle making them 3A actually but it is almost impossible to tell with private schools because there is no reliable source for their enrollment

Wonderdog

Almatrackster, I remember you doing this same process and configuration for the last cycle. How accurate was your work last time? Not being critical at all, just curious how close it turned out last time. Based on your current post, one of the schools that I follow looks like they will be on the 2A/3A bubble.

OB11

Jonesboro to 7A(6A) would be a nightmare. For them and every other school in their conference.

beach bum

Quote from: x14113 on November 06, 2018, 12:09:50 am
Here's the enrollment by grade for the entire district.

https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/ReportList/Districts/EnrollmentByGrade.aspx?year=27&search=lamar&pagesize=100

As you can see, Lamar currently has the numbers to not only jump to 4A, but also stay there.

It doesn't hurt that this is an area that has sustained growth where surrounding areas are shrinking, especially to the south and west.

Demographics could be playing a role, too. Compare this: https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/ReportList/Districts/EnrollmentByRace.aspx?year=27&search=lamar&pagesize=100

To this: https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/ReportList/Districts/EnrollmentByRace.aspx?year=27&search=clarksville&pagesize=100

While I can't speak for individual intent, the fact that white enrollment at Clarksville has been steadily shrinking for a decade now is pretty telling.

That said, it's not all roses in Johnson County--a major industry will be closing by next month, which may cut short Lamar's stint in 4A (as well as Clarksville's in 5A).

Thank you for the info on the River Valley.... very interesting indeed.

AHS06

Quote from: OB11 on November 06, 2018, 09:54:26 am
Jonesboro to 7A(6A) would be a nightmare. For them and every other school in their conference.
I don't see Jonesboro jumping to 7A

AT


AT

Quote from: Wonderdog on November 06, 2018, 09:33:10 am
Almatrackster, I remember you doing this same process and configuration for the last cycle. How accurate was your work last time? Not being critical at all, just curious how close it turned out last time. Based on your current post, one of the schools that I follow looks like they will be on the 2A/3A bubble.

No offense taken, good question. Last year I had some screw ups on the order of 7A because of the feeder school patterns and the branched off schools, but think I should be better on it this year. I also missed because of CAC being 3A instead of 4A, but I can't account for that inaccuracy. If a school is on the edge of the class, it should be noted as in limbo of being above or below.

7A-5A is usually dead on.

Wonderdog

Quote from: Almatrackster on November 06, 2018, 12:19:00 pm
No offense taken, good question. Last year I had some screw ups on the order of 7A because of the feeder school patterns and the branched off schools, but think I should be better on it this year. I also missed because of CAC being 3A instead of 4A, but I can't account for that inaccuracy. If a school is on the edge of the class, it should be noted as in limbo of being above or below.

7A-5A is usually dead on.
Makes sense. Thanks for your contributions to the board on this topic!

SouthpawSensation

The only argument I have with the early projections is LRSD superintendent Michael Poore has said the new school will be a Class 7A (6A) school and that there will be adjustments made in the district's attendance zones to help that out.
My gut feeling is that if it's going to happen, it's probably going to drop Parkview and Hall both to 5A schools and not have one in one class and one in the other.

AT

I've heard that Southpaw but I find it interesting that if you just go by numbers of McClellan + Fair they are 6A

grizz

Lets do this instead...

North
Har-Ber
Springdale 
Bentonville
Fayetteville
Rogers
Heritage
Bentonville West
Siloam Springs

West
Conway
Fort Smith Northside
Fort Smith Southside
Van Buren
Russellville
Greenwood
Mountain Home
Sylvan Hills

East
North Little Rock
Little Rock Central
Catholic
Jonesboro
Searcy
West Memphis
Marion
Cabot

South
Bryant
Benton
Lake Hamilton
El Dorado
Sheridan
Pine Bluff
Little Rock Southwest
Parkview

AirWarren

Quote from: x14113 on November 06, 2018, 12:09:50 am
Here's the enrollment by grade for the entire district.

https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/ReportList/Districts/EnrollmentByGrade.aspx?year=27&search=lamar&pagesize=100

As you can see, Lamar currently has the numbers to not only jump to 4A, but also stay there.

It doesn't hurt that this is an area that has sustained growth where surrounding areas are shrinking, especially to the south and west.

Demographics could be playing a role, too. Compare this: https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/ReportList/Districts/EnrollmentByRace.aspx?year=27&search=lamar&pagesize=100

To this: https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/ReportList/Districts/EnrollmentByRace.aspx?year=27&search=clarksville&pagesize=100

While I can't speak for individual intent, the fact that white enrollment at Clarksville has been steadily shrinking for a decade now is pretty telling.

That said, it's not all roses in Johnson County--a major industry will be closing by next month, which may cut short Lamar's stint in 4A (as well as Clarksville's in 5A).

I was unaware of a large minority base in the Johnson County area including Clarksville specifically?

Also, by population alone, it appears Clarksville has grown a little over 5% in 7 years. What is it that Clarksville has that allows for sustained growth as a town? I've driven through there going to the Mulberry and when I have gone to Fayetteville.

HorseFeathers


x14113

Quote from: AirWarren on November 06, 2018, 03:19:23 pm
I was unaware of a large minority base in the Johnson County area including Clarksville specifically?

The Hispanic presence in Clarksville has been a local talking point for a generation now. I remember it coming up in conversation in the early '90s.

Spread to neighboring areas (like Lamar and Ozark) has been slow, but it's getting there.


Quote from: AirWarren on November 06, 2018, 03:19:23 pm
Also, by population alone, it appears Clarksville has grown a little over 5% in 7 years. What is it that Clarksville has that allows for sustained growth as a town?

I would speculate a diverse economy. On top of a solid industrial base, Clarksville also benefits in tourism, education, G&S, and is developing a college-town facet with the UofO gaining clout. running your own utilities and investing in QoL probably doesn't hurt.

Speaking of industry:



Quote from: HorseFeathers on November 06, 2018, 03:23:45 pm
Are you talking about baldor electric?

Yup, the days of the company that is now ABB in Clarksville are now numbered.

Incidentally, some of the jobs are being shifted to Ozark, which could add to that town's looming increase in economic activity.

AirWarren


bluegrassboy75

It looks like Ozark Mountain School District (Western Grove, Bruno-Pyatt & St. Joe) will be getting a new Superintendent come July 1st.  I wonder if they will try to consolidate into one high school.  If so, would that move them up to 2A?

Just curious.

beach bum

In my neck of the woods it looks like this..... Obviously schools on bubble could change this

7A West
1.Bentonville
2. Bentonville West
3. Rogers
4. Rogers Heritage
5. Springdale
6. Springdale Harber
7. Fayetteville
8. Fort Smith Northside


***Van Buren is projected biggest 6A, they stay in 7A and they take Northside's place and avoid the massive head ache of having to split the two Fort Smith schools. Southside could also take Northside's spot I guess. Also, if Van Buren does go 6A imagine one of the Fort Smith schools having to be in Jonesboro's conference  :o




beach bum

November 07, 2018, 10:20:12 am #23 Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 08:05:14 pm by beach bum
5A West
1.Pea Ridge
2.Huntsville
3.Morrilton
4.Harrison
5.Alma
6.Clarksville
7.Greenbrier
8.Farmington

***** Crazy to think that rivals Greenbrier and Vilonia will have to be split in different conferences

****** Huntsville is listed as the smallest public 5A school so if the margin of error puts Huntsville in to 4A instead of 5A then plug Vilonia into Huntsville's spot

beach bum

1-4A (lots of possibilites here as Lincoln and Huntsville could pop in here based off them so close)
1.Prairie Grove
2.Gravette
3.Berryville
4.Gentry
5.Elkins
6.Shiloh Christian
7.Green Forest
8. Ozark


**** Obvious fix is if just ONE of Lincoln or Huntsville end up in 4A as Lincoln is listed as the biggest 3A and Huntsville smallest 5A then one of them would just take Ozark's spot and move Ozark to its better fit in the 4-4A

**** If Huntsville AND Lincoln fall in 4A off their small margin of error possibility then Ozark and Elkins would go to the 4-4A like they are now and then Lincoln and Huntsville take their place



beach bum

November 07, 2018, 10:34:32 am #25 Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 10:39:06 am by beach bum
1-3A (lot's of options with Lincoln in the margin of error)
1.Greenland
2. West Fork
3. Cedarville
4. Hackett
5. Lavaca
6. Charleston
7. Mansfield
8. Lincoln

**** Lincoln is the school here that will send this conference in limbo, if they stay 4A then the obvious change would be to keep Booneville in the 1-3A and switch with Lincoln here

**** I guess Paris could also stay here in Lincoln's place if Lincoln stays 4A, but Booneville seems like a better fit to stay geographically than Paris with those other 7 schools. All I know is if Lincoln does not stay Booneville or Paris has to come in

**** If Lincoln does come to 3A than Paris and Booneville will get placed in the 4-3A or even a tiny chance to play in the 2-3A??

**** Charleston must be licking its chops at the possibilty of Lamar and Booneville no longer in the league


*** Also don't put it past the AAA to go all crazy like they did a few years back and think Lincoln, West Fork, Greenland, Cedarville playing in the same conference as Mountain View, Marshall, Yellville Summit, and Melbourne sounds like a good idea. They have did this before and don't put it past them to do something as awful as that again


beach bum

4-2A (this is so hard to even try with Decatur now 8 man, plus Hackett and Lavaca to 3A)
1.Mountainburg (they are in for some serious traveling with the departure of the 3 listed above)
2.Magazine
3.Hector
4. JC Westside
5. Western Yell County

(the rest are all a crap shoot with so little 2A in wesrern AR and all depends on movement of 8 man and how AAA wants to split headache of this lack of 2A in western AR, I am thinking the AAA may only do 7 teams in the 4-2A for the 2020 and 2021 football seasons here are some possibilities below to fill the last 2 or 3 spots)

Yellville Summit (if they come to 2A, they are listed as smallest 3A here so in the margin of error)

Mount Ida ( do they go 8 man, if not what a headache if they end up in the 4-2A)

Bigelow
Conway Christian
Quitman (all three of these are headaches as well and lots of travel, its the new world in 2A though I worry)




HorseFeathers

I figure it would be Bigelow Quitman and CCS traveling to Mnt Burg..

beach bum

Quote from: HorseFeathers on November 07, 2018, 12:51:23 pm
I figure it would be Bigelow Quitman and CCS traveling to Mnt Burg..


I think so too as long as Yellville does not spoil things and make the league completely all out of whack.... You all in Hector seem to be in the best spot as the middle man of it all so not too bad for Hector.

DEVIL DOG HOG

Quote from: beach bum on November 07, 2018, 10:20:12 am
5A West
1.Pea Ridge
2.Huntsville
3.Morrilton
4.Harrison
5.Alma
6.Clarksville
7.Greenbrier
8.Vilonia

***** Huntsville is listed as the smallest 5A public school. Let's say small margin of error puts them 4A then I guess Maumelle or one of the Little Rock private schools takes Huntsville's spot


Where is Farmington going?  I see Vilonia going to 5A central. Watson Chapel to 5A South.

beach bum

Quote from: DEVIL DOG HOG on November 07, 2018, 07:54:29 pm

Where is Farmington going?  I see Vilonia going to 5A central. Watson Chapel to 5A South.



I don't know how I forgot them on that list.... Thank you for pointing that out. I will make the proper edit above!

ozarkmtnsman

Quote from: bluegrassboy75 on November 07, 2018, 09:36:15 am
It looks like Ozark Mountain School District (Western Grove, Bruno-Pyatt & St. Joe) will be getting a new Superintendent come July 1st.  I wonder if they will try to consolidate into one high school.  If so, would that move them up to 2A?

Just curious.


Bruno nor St. Joe have a Sr. Girls team this year.  Not sure about specific numbers but K-12 St. Joe is around 140, Bruno-200, Western Grove about 240.
So it would be close to a move up, however, you will have significant enrollment losses if you shut down the local high schools and go to one. Yellville already is running buses all over the Bruno-Pyatt district.  The majority of the current board wants 3 high schools. 

friscokid

Quote from: beach bum on November 07, 2018, 10:50:25 am
4-2A (this is so hard to even try with Decatur now 8 man, plus Hackett and Lavaca to 3A)
1.Mountainburg (they are in for some serious traveling with the departure of the 3 listed above)
2.Magazine
3.Hector
4. JC Westside
5. Western Yell County

(the rest are all a crap shoot with so little 2A in wesrern AR and all depends on movement of 8 man and how AAA wants to split headache of this lack of 2A in western AR, I am thinking the AAA may only do 7 teams in the 4-2A for the 2020 and 2021 football seasons here are some possibilities below to fill the last 2 or 3 spots)

Yellville Summit (if they come to 2A, they are listed as smallest 3A here so in the margin of error)

Mount Ida ( do they go 8 man, if not what a headache if they end up in the 4-2A)

Bigelow
Conway Christian
Quitman (all three of these are headaches as well and lots of travel, its the new world in 2A though I worry)
This is precisely why I advocate going to 8 conferences of 6 teams each in 4A and below. Administrators gripe about travel and then they trot out this crap. I get that Yellville is isolated and the same is true in about every class you look at, but Yellville potentially to Mount Ida is ridiculous.

HorseFeathers

I'd bet a farm on that Yellville to Mr Ida doesn't happen for conference....but then again we had Yellville with Buffalo Island in basketball...so maybe I shouldn't bet a farm I do not own

x14113

Considering their current positioning, it seems this will likely be brought up again:

What are the chances that Shiloh will petition to jump to 5A next cycle?

I'd imagine it would be a popular idea within certain circles...particularly Huntsville.

rzrbackfan

Quote from: x14113 on November 26, 2018, 10:26:13 pm
Considering their current positioning, it seems this will likely be brought up again:

What are the chances that Shiloh will petition to jump to 5A next cycle?

I'd imagine it would be a popular idea within certain circles...particularly Huntsville.
Why would Shiloh want to move to 5A looking at Pea Ridge this would only cause a lot more travel.  Morrilton, Alma, Clarksville, Greenbrier, Vilonia.  Right now all their games are close to them.  What benefit do they get moving up? 

DEVIL DOG HOG

Shiloh tried the 5A a few years ago, It was not too successful.

beach bum

December 02, 2018, 07:40:50 pm #37 Last Edit: December 02, 2018, 07:46:03 pm by beach bum
Quote from: DEVIL DOG HOG on December 02, 2018, 06:25:48 pm
Shiloh tried the 5A a few years ago, It was not too successful.


When Shiloh petitioned up that was the least talent I have seen the Shiloh program have in the last 3 decades. Whoever decided for them to move up during that 2 year cycle did not have their head on straight because they would have struggled to even make the playoffs in 4A those two years let alone 5A. I could be wrong, but in my humble opinion the old coaching regime was so arrogant they thought so highly of themselves that they could win anywhere and it backfired big time on them. This new staff is a lot more humble and down to earth needless to say. They would have probably made the playoffs in 4A those two years, but would not have been competing anywhere near the top 2 in the 1-4A. Anyone that follows NWA football knows Shiloh is loaded coming up the pipe for at least a half decade. They would do just fine in the 5A West moving forward with the talent they have coming. Take into account Pea Ridge joins 5A in 2020 with Prairie Grove & Gravette probably tagging along in 2022 that Shiloh would do just fine in 5A. Not saying they would light the world on fire up there, but they would have no issues getting in the playoffs at all with the talent they have coming up and it would be nothing like their last spell in 5A.

beach bum

Quote from: HorseFeathers on November 18, 2018, 05:35:25 pm
I'd bet a farm on that Yellville to Mr Ida doesn't happen for conference....but then again we had Yellville with Buffalo Island in basketball...so maybe I shouldn't bet a farm I do not own

I agree cause Mt Ida in the 4-2A makes no sense for sure. Now if Yellville falls to barely 2A with the small margin of error then it creates a nightmare in 2A conferences. At least in 3A they are remotely close to at least a few people that makes sense for them.

beach bum

Quote from: x14113 on November 26, 2018, 10:26:13 pm
Considering their current positioning, it seems this will likely be brought up again:

What are the chances that Shiloh will petition to jump to 5A next cycle?

I'd imagine it would be a popular idea within certain circles...particularly Huntsville.

As many 1-4A teams continue their pile up to 5A West in the coming years honestly Shiloh is going to have no competition whatsoever in the new look 1-4A we will see in about 5 years from now. The 1-4A will become as bad as it was as a conference in the early 2000's I am afraid to say. Everything goes in cycles being good and bad as a conference and I am afraid NWA football may be cycling down. If they want any competition in conference play moving forward with how loaded they will be as a program then the won't get it in the 1-4A that is for sure.

friscokid

Quote from: beach bum on December 02, 2018, 07:43:09 pm
I agree cause Mt Ida in the 4-2A makes no sense for sure. Now if Yellville falls to barely 2A with the small margin of error then it creates a nightmare in 2A conferences. At least in 3A they are remotely close to at least a few people that makes sense for them.
That's where my call for eight 6-team districts makes sense, especially in 2A where teams could drop to 8-man at the drop of a hat. I hope the AAA will tighten that process up. Yellville-Summit can find 5 non-district teams to play without going south of the Arkansas River to do so.

beach bum

Quote from: friscokid on December 02, 2018, 07:52:17 pm
That's where my call for eight 6-team districts makes sense, especially in 2A where teams could drop to 8-man at the drop of a hat. I hope the AAA will tighten that process up. Yellville-Summit can find 5 non-district teams to play without going south of the Arkansas River to do so.

I think you are probably right that is the way we need to go.... I told someone how basketball and the other sports shrank a class. I think when more teams go 8 man that they will shrink a football class as well as shrinking the conference sizes. They're going to have to do something when more go 8 man.

HorseFeathers

Basketball could probably lose another class....and Football could follow the model they have now for the other sports 🤔

YSpanther

Quote from: beach bum on December 02, 2018, 07:43:09 pm
I agree cause Mt Ida in the 4-2A makes no sense for sure. Now if Yellville falls to barely 2A with the small margin of error then it creates a nightmare in 2A conferences. At least in 3A they are remotely close to at least a few people that makes sense for them.
Yellville appears to have stopped its freefall, numbers wise and is actually growing again slowly. I suspect by the time we get to checking numbers for 2020, we will probably be one of the smallest in 3A again.

HorseFeathers

We've been talking about where would yellville go if they fall to 2a.

But what about

Which Fort Smith school goes North and which one goes East if VB drops to 6a?

In 5a...I think Vilonia and Beebe end up in the Central with White Hall and Chapel going back to the South

4a...Lamar(wow) to the 4 and Ozark and Elkins back to NWA and the 4a-1...Other changes I have are Clinton and Mills to the 2.

3a Who's going to the 6 to replace Episcopal? 9 teams fall in the 3a-1 foot print from this cycle, so maybe push Paris to the 4, and Mayflower to the 6? Or Jessieville to the 5 and CHG over to the 6?

2a....Only change is the trade of Cedar Ridge into the 2a-3 and Salem up to 3a... we'll have to wait and see how many teams decide to go to 8 man for sure, but CCS and/or Bigelow may end up in the 2a-4 to replace Hackett, Lavaca, and Decatur..

Just my 2 cents on the football conference changes 🤷

YSpanther

Quote from: HorseFeathers on December 02, 2018, 09:01:20 pm
We've been talking about where would yellville go if they fall to 2a.

But what about

Which Fort Smith school goes North and which one goes East if VB drops to 6a?

In 5a...I think Vilonia and Beebe end up in the Central with White Hall and Chapel going back to the South

4a...Lamar(wow) to the 4 and Ozark and Elkins back to NWA and the 4a-1...Other changes I have are Clinton and Mills to the 2.

3a Who's going to the 6 to replace Episcopal? 9 teams fall in the 3a-1 foot print from this cycle, so maybe push Paris to the 4, and Mayflower to the 6? Or Jessieville to the 5 and CHG over to the 6?

2a....Only change is the trade of Cedar Ridge into the 2a-3 and Salem up to 3a... we'll have to wait and see how many teams decide to go to 8 man for sure, but CCS and/or Bigelow may end up in the 2a-4 to replace Hackett, Lavaca, and Decatur..

Just my 2 cents on the football conference changes 🤷
This cycle Yellville is 2A in everything except for football. If some other schools around us that are bigger than us actually played football like Bergman and Valley Springs, we wouldn't have been forced to keep playing in 3A for football.  We were the smallest public school in 3A football, I believe.

sloan

Let's not!


Quote from: grizz on November 06, 2018, 03:12:54 pm
Lets do this instead...

North
Har-Ber
Springdale
Bentonville
Fayetteville
Rogers
Heritage
Bentonville West
Siloam Springs

West
Conway
Fort Smith Northside
Fort Smith Southside
Van Buren
Russellville
Greenwood
Mountain Home
Sylvan Hills

East
North Little Rock
Little Rock Central
Catholic
Jonesboro
Searcy
West Memphis
Marion
Cabot

South
Bryant
Benton
Lake Hamilton
El Dorado
Sheridan
Pine Bluff
Little Rock Southwest
Parkview

tmycjy

Here is my draft for 5-A

East                       Central             South.           West
Green county tech   Maumelle.         HS Lakeside.  Greenbrier
Nettleton                 Jacksonville      Texarkana.     Alma
Paragould                Vilonia              Hot springs    Clarksville
Valley view.             Beebe               Magnoila        Harrison
Brookland.               LR Christian       DeQueen       Farmington
Forrest city              Pulaski Academy Camden        Pea Ridge
Wynne                     White Hall          Hope            Morrilton
Batesville.                Watson Chapel   LR Hall         Huntsville

This is my draft of class 5-A         

POWERCAT PRIDE

Clear something up for me.  The BOLDED class on the left is FOOTBALL ONLY? But in parenthesis is "other sports". So why does El Dorado play a 5A conference schedule but a 6A state tourney? I know why, it's a travel issue. But  isn't Baseball an "other sport"?

HorseFeathers

Quote from: POWERCAT PRIDE on December 05, 2018, 08:43:34 pm
Clear something up for me.  The BOLDED class on the left is FOOTBALL ONLY? But in parenthesis is "other sports". So why does El Dorado play a 5A conference schedule but a 6A state tourney? I know why, it's a travel issue. But  isn't Baseball an "other sport"?

Only thing they play 6a sports in is football, where are you seeing the 6a tourney for, I'm assuming, baseball?

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