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Daily lines (boys)

Started by Ba$ketballFan54321, February 12, 2018, 11:36:52 am

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Ba$ketballFan54321

February 12, 2018, 11:36:52 am Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 12:37:02 pm by Ba$ketballFan54321
I'm going to try to do this throughout the postseason for those interested. Unfortunately, I only have info for the boys. Feel free to compare it to MaxPreps. Their info can be found here: Boys Girls
As always, mine can be found here.

Without further ado..

Scranton -32.5  93.5%
Oark                 6.8%

Maumelle Charter -0.7  51.4%
Sacred Heart                48.6%

Rural Special        22.4%
West Side  -15.6   77.6%

Viola             42.2%
Hillcrest -3.9  57.8%

Crowley's  -7.8  65.2%
Maynard            34.8%

Acorn       -29.6    91.3%
Mount Ida             8.7%

South Side        37.6%
Bradford   -6.4  62.4%

Marvell                 49.6%           
Wonderview  -0.2  50.4%

Bruno-Pyatt            49.8%
Mount Judea  -0.1   50.2%

Norfork                           26.5%
Mammoth Spring  -12.7   73.5%

Mineral Springs   -8.6   66.7%
Oden                           33.3%

And if there's any games I'm missing let me know!

BannerChaser95

Missing one boys game from 7West 5 mineral spring vs 4 Oden

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: BannerChaser95 on February 12, 2018, 12:31:48 pm
Missing one boys game from 7West 5 mineral spring vs 4 Oden

Added, thanks!

thebigman3

Gonna say Marvell and Wonderview will be the game of the day..

Moonshiner


Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: Moonshiner on February 12, 2018, 03:20:30 pm
Lead Hill vs Decatur?

Lead Hill          42.8%
Decatur  -3.7   57.2%

Ba$ketballFan54321

Tuesday's games. I'm sure I'm missing some so just let me know any games that you're interested in.

Lead Hill              3.6%
Omaha   -41.3   96.4%

Maumelle Charter         34.6%
Mt. Vernon-Enola  -7.9  65.4%

Alpena             45.0%
Kingston  -2.5  55.0%

West Side      38.5%
Timbo    -5.8  61.5%

Wonderview            29.3%
Guy-Perkins  -10.9  70.7%

Bradford           17.7%
Shirley   -19.5   82.3%

Bruno-Pyatt         15.8%
Jasper       -20.9  84.2%

Umpire             5.0%
Dierks  -36.8  95.0%

JimmyChitwood

What would bigun3 and chump chump do if Wonderview beat guy?

BannerMountainMan

Quote from: JimmyChitwood on February 13, 2018, 09:13:24 am
What would bigun3 and chump chump do if Wonderview beat guy?
wouldnt they still make regionals or no?

BannerChaser95


hooperfromwestside


Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: BannerChaser95 on February 13, 2018, 09:48:56 am
yes as a 3 or 4seed

The difference in a 1/2 seed and a 3/4 seed in Regionals is huge. Guy has a 95% chance to make the state tournament if they win this one and a 20% chance if they lose. That's a really big swing.

Ba$ketballFan54321

Thursday 2/15

Taylor               18.4%
Bradley  -18.8   81.6%

Strong               36.0%
Woodlawn  -7.2  64.0%

Hartford                   4.9%
County Line  -39.1  95.1%

Timbo               17.3%
Concord  -19.8  82.7%

Hillcrest                   16.9%
Izard County  -19.8  83.1%

Dierks  -2.6  55.3%
Acorn           44.7%

Mammoth Spring       38.4%
Calico Rock       -5.9  61.6%

Shirley            44.7%
Midland  -2.6   55.3%

BannerChaser95


HorseFeathers


Ba$ketballFan54321

Oden            4.2%
Kirby -39.3  95.8%

Western Yell County   15.4%
Scranton         -21.2  84.6%


BannerMountainMan

Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 15, 2018, 08:38:58 am
Thursday 2/15

Taylor               18.4%
Bradley  -18.8   81.6%

Strong               36.0%
Woodlawn  -7.2  64.0%

Hartford                   4.9%
County Line  -39.1  95.1%

Timbo               17.3%
Concord  -19.8  82.7%

Hillcrest                   16.9%
Izard County  -19.8  83.1%

Dierks  -2.6  55.3%
Acorn           44.7%

Mammoth Spring       38.4%
Calico Rock       -5.9  61.6%

Shirley            44.7%
Midland  -2.6   55.3%
wow concord a 20 point favorite

Catfish

Concord had beat Timbo twice this year by 30. Guess it was one of those nights. Yikes. They will bounce back. They're a good team.

Ba$ketballFan54321


Ba$ketballFan54321

Friday's games!

The games of the day happen in 5North, both basically coin flips.

Should be a good day of games. They only get more important here on out!

Guy-Perkins       -3.3   56.6%
Mt. Vernon-Enola         43.4%

Maumelle Charter        49.5%
Wonderview       -0.3   50.5%

Trinity Christian      32.8%
Bradley         -8.9   67.2%

Kingston           22.5%
Omaha   -15.4   77.5%

Scranton                 16.8%
County Line  -20.0   83.2%

Strong            34.4%
Dermott  -8.1  65.6%

Hampton              22.4%
Woodlawn  -15.5   77.6%

oldfireguy

Any projections on Deer v. Western Grove in 1-East final tonight?

Ba$ketballFan54321

Spreadsheet updated post-district tournaments. I'll try to post some more regional/state probabilities later!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YULs0sSgpHDLXqDJuFJTocHFHE2pu-CL724HuGJblnE/edit#gid=0

Ba$ketballFan54321

Here's each team's chances to win their region. Region 3 and Region 5 both look really wide open.

Region 1:
Omaha   56.2%
Western Grove   15.9%
Deer   12.0%
Kingston   9.9%
Alpena   5.1%
Jasper   0.8%
Bruno-Pyatt   0.1%
Lead Hill   0.0%

Omaha is the clear favorite here so no surprises there.

Region 2:
Izard County   49.6%
Calico Rock   11.2%
Armorel   9.6%
Rector   8.0%
Bay   7.9%
Ridgefield Christian   5.9%
Mammoth Spring   3.9%
Hillcrest   3.9%

Izard the clear favorite but there's a few teams in the next tier that could make some noise.

Region 3:
Mt. Vernon-Enola   27.2%
Guy-Perkins   23.8%
Concord   21.0%
Wonderview   9.1%
Shirley   7.2%
Maumelle Charter   5.0%
Midland   3.7%
Timbo   3.0%

3 teams right there together at the top. This region is really interesting because Guy and Concord meet in the first round, which is a big-time match-up.

Region 4:
Kirby   41.6%
County Line   31.8%
Scranton   11.7%
Acorn   10.0%
Dierks   4.4%
Hartford   0.3%
Oden   0.2%
Western Yell County   0.0%

Kirby or County line should take this one, however, they'll be meeting in the second round instead of the finals so a really good team will be entering state as a 3 or 4 seed.

Region 5:
Nevada   24.9%
Dermott   20.0%
Woodlawn   17.6%
Bradley   12.9%
Strong   12.9%
Ouachita   7.3%
Hampton   2.5%
Trinity Christian   1.9%

Totally wide open. No clear favorite here. Should be some fun games all around.

As always feel free to ask me questions about my numbers! Enjoy what should be a great week of basketball!

BannerChaser95

February 20, 2018, 10:53:06 am #23 Last Edit: February 20, 2018, 11:00:15 am by BannerChaser95
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 20, 2018, 08:20:00 am
Here's each team's chances to win their region. Region 3 and Region 5 both look really wide open.

Region 1:
Omaha   56.2%
Western Grove   15.9%
Deer   12.0%
Kingston   9.9%
Alpena   5.1%
Jasper   0.8%
Bruno-Pyatt   0.1%
Lead Hill   0.0%

Omaha is the clear favorite here so no surprises there.

Region 2:
Izard County   49.6%
Calico Rock   11.2%
Armorel   9.6%
Rector   8.0%
Bay   7.9%
Ridgefield Christian   5.9%
Mammoth Spring   3.9%
Hillcrest   3.9%

Izard the clear favorite but there's a few teams in the next tier that could make some noise.

Region 3:
Mt. Vernon-Enola   27.2%
Guy-Perkins   23.8%
Concord   21.0%
Wonderview   9.1%
Shirley   7.2%
Maumelle Charter   5.0%
Midland   3.7%
Timbo   3.0%

3 teams right there together at the top. This region is really interesting because Guy and Concord meet in the first round, which is a big-time match-up.

Region 4:
Kirby   41.6%
County Line   31.8%
Scranton   11.7%
Acorn   10.0%
Dierks   4.4%
Hartford   0.3%
Oden   0.2%
Western Yell County   0.0%

Kirby or County line should take this one, however, they'll be meeting in the second round instead of the finals so a really good team will be entering state as a 3 or 4 seed.

Region 5:
Nevada   24.9%
Dermott   20.0%
Woodlawn   17.6%
Bradley   12.9%
Strong   12.9%
Ouachita   7.3%
Hampton   2.5%
Trinity Christian   1.9%

Totally wide open. No clear favorite here. Should be some fun games all around.

As always feel free to ask me questions about my numbers! Enjoy what should be a great week of basketball!
Giving dierks a 4.4% chance to win the region but I don't know if the intangible home court is appearing in the calculations. Whenever the lines come out for opening rounds. I'm excited to see County Line - Dierks, Bay - Mammoth Springs, and Concord - Guy-Perkins lines. Interesting 2-3 match ups but the Dierks/County Lines not getting enough notice. Especially with dierks having 1 loss at home in the last 2 seasons.

Ba$ketballFan54321

February 20, 2018, 10:55:44 am #24 Last Edit: February 20, 2018, 11:02:57 am by Ba$ketballFan54321
Here's the win probabilities for every first round match-up. Obviously, this is the biggest game of the year (up to this point) for every team because it's win or go home!

Wednesday's Games:

Maumelle Charter   47.3%   
Shirley   52.7%   -1.3

Ridgefield Christian   21.8%   
Izard County   78.2%   -15.9
      
Trinity Christian   33.9%   
Strong   66.1%   -8.4
      
Lead Hill   9.9%   
Western Grove   90.1%   -28.1
      
Western Yell County   4.6%   
Kirby   95.4%   -37.6
         
Oden   12.0%   
Scranton   88.0%   -24.9
      
Midland   28.2%   
Mt. Vernon-Enola   71.8%   -11.7
      
Bruno-Pyatt   2.3%   
Omaha   97.7%   -46.5
      
Hillcrest   41.9%   
Armorel   58.1%   -4.2

Hampton   24.7%   
Nevada   75.3%   -14.1

Thursday's games:

Concord   50.7%   -0.4
Guy-Perkins   49.3%
      
Mammoth Spring   43.1%   
Bay   56.9%   -3.5
      
Woodlawn   53.8%  -1.9    
Bradley   46.2%   

Dierks   28.0%   
County Line   72.0%   -12.4
      
Jasper   30.3%   
Kingston   69.7%   -10.4
            
Alpena   37.9%   
Deer   62.1%   -6.5

Wonderview   62.5%   -6.3   
Timbo   37.5%   

Hartford   18.3%   
Acorn   81.7%   -18.9

Rector   45.4%   
Calico Rock   54.6%   -2.3
      
Ouachita   39.3%   
Dermott   60.7%   -5.5

eamo8911

Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 20, 2018, 10:55:44 am

Alpena   37.9%   
Deer   62.1%   -6.5
   
Alpena   31.7%   
Deer   68.3%   -10.1




Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: BannerChaser95 on February 20, 2018, 10:53:06 am
Giving dierks a 4.4% chance to win the region but I don't know if the intangible home court is appearing in the calculations. Whenever the lines come out for opening rounds. I'm excited to see County Line - Dierks, Bay - Mammoth Springs, and Concord - Guy-Perkins lines. Interesting 2-3 match ups but the Dierks/County Lines not getting enough noticed. Especially with dierks having 1 loss at home in the last 2 seasons.

Home court advantage is factored in! But yes I agree, the County Line-Dierks matchup is one that I'm really excited about. Dierks is a team that my model is unsure about. Their Elo rating is pretty strong (which is based on wins/losses and gives more weight to recent games), while their SRS (based on margin of victory) is more mediocre. So that's a game where it may end up being closer than what the point spread (-12.4) says.

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: eamo8911 on February 20, 2018, 10:58:37 am


Whoops! the -6.5 is correct for Deer-Alpena, I fixed the original post.

no mascot

How do you adjust for home court advantage?

BannerChaser95

Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 20, 2018, 11:00:37 am
Home court advantage is factored in! But yes I agree, the County Line-Dierks matchup is one that I'm really excited about. Dierks is a team that my model is unsure about. Their Elo rating is pretty strong (which is based on wins/losses and gives more weight to recent games), while their SRS (based on margin of victory) is more mediocre. So that's a game where it may end up being closer than what the point spread (-12.4) says.
Interesting, well it would be the equivalent of Timbo over Concord on paper. However I feel it's a little more than that because Dierks size could match up well with the bigger teams in 1A.

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: no mascot on February 20, 2018, 11:23:15 am
How do you adjust for home court advantage?

Based on my research from the past few seasons, home court advantage is about 3.5 points. Which is the same as the NBA, interestingly enough.

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: BannerChaser95 on February 20, 2018, 11:35:26 am
Interesting, well it would be the equivalent of Timbo over Concord on paper. However I feel it's a little more than that because Dierks size could match up well with the bigger teams in 1A.

Good point! And that's something that the computer can't account for...match-up issues. We all know that size, style of play, etc play a big role in basketball.

BannerChaser95

February 20, 2018, 11:58:29 am #32 Last Edit: February 20, 2018, 12:22:04 pm by BannerChaser95
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 20, 2018, 11:37:21 am
Based on my research from the past few seasons, home court advantage is about 3.5 points. Which is the same as the NBA, interestingly enough.
I see where you calculated incorrectly. Dierks is about 10-15 points court and 5-6 call a game advantage... haha

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: BannerChaser95 on February 20, 2018, 11:58:29 am
I see where you calculated incorrectly. Dierks is about 10-15 points court and 5-6 call a game advantage...

Hahaha that's what I've heard. Maybe one of these days I'll look at individual teams and see which have the biggest home court advantage. It might be interesting or it may not really tell anything.

Neckred

Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 13, 2018, 08:07:44 am
Tuesday's games. I'm sure I'm missing some so just let me know any games that you're interested in.

Lead Hill              3.6%
Omaha   -41.3   96.4%

Maumelle Charter         34.6%
Mt. Vernon-Enola  -7.9  65.4%

Alpena             45.0%
Kingston  -2.5  55.0%

West Side      38.5%
Timbo    -5.8  61.5%

Wonderview            29.3%
Guy-Perkins  -10.9  70.7%

Bradford           17.7%
Shirley   -19.5   82.3%

Bruno-Pyatt         15.8%
Jasper       -20.9  84.2%

Umpire             5.0%
Dierks  -36.8  95.0%
Man I would love to bet some serious cash on Dierks. 

Ba$ketballFan54321

BannerChaser got me thinking so I ran a quick analysis on home/road/neutral splits for teams. And Dierks is actually one of the best teams at home. They're about 9.5 points better at home (compared to the 3.5 that you'd expect). This analysis is only for this season so of course it could just be a random thing and not anything significant. Anyone who's had a statistics class should know that haha. But it is interesting!

If that much of a home court advantage is really the case then you're looking at a 6.4 spread for the County Line game rather than 12.4, which is a really big difference.

BannerChaser95

February 20, 2018, 03:49:33 pm #36 Last Edit: February 20, 2018, 05:17:39 pm by BannerChaser95
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 20, 2018, 03:18:56 pm
BannerChaser got me thinking so I ran a quick analysis on home/road/neutral splits for teams. And Dierks is actually one of the best teams at home. They're about 9.5 points better at home (compared to the 3.5 that you'd expect). This analysis is only for this season so of course it could just be a random thing and not anything significant. Anyone who's had a statistics class should know that haha. But it is interesting!

If that much of a home court advantage is really the case then you're looking at a 6.4 spread for the County Line game rather than 12.4, which is a really big difference.
I guess the 5-6 calls just make it feel a little bigger than that. Either way I expect a big game, I remember how it was at County Line last year against Mineral Springs and the calling and home court advantage was definitely in effect for that Semi-Final game. So if they catch a dose of their own medicine they may be leaving the scene earlier than most expected.

Catfish

Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 20, 2018, 10:55:44 am
Here's the win probabilities for every first round match-up. Obviously, this is the biggest game of the year (up to this point) for every team because it's win or go home!

Wednesday's Games:

Maumelle Charter   47.3%   
Shirley   52.7%   -1.3

Ridgefield Christian   21.8%   
Izard County   78.2%   -15.9
      
Trinity Christian   33.9%   
Strong   66.1%   -8.4
      
Lead Hill   9.9%   
Western Grove   90.1%   -28.1
      
Western Yell County   4.6%   
Kirby   95.4%   -37.6
         
Oden   12.0%   
Scranton   88.0%   -24.9
      
Midland   28.2%   
Mt. Vernon-Enola   71.8%   -11.7
      
Bruno-Pyatt   2.3%   
Omaha   97.7%   -46.5
      
Hillcrest   41.9%   
Armorel   58.1%   -4.2

Hampton   24.7%   
Nevada   75.3%   -14.1

Thursday's games:

Concord   50.7%   -0.4
Guy-Perkins   49.3%

      
Mammoth Spring   43.1%   
Bay   56.9%   -3.5
      
Woodlawn   53.8%  -1.9    
Bradley   46.2%   

Dierks   28.0%   
County Line   72.0%   -12.4
      
Jasper   30.3%   
Kingston   69.7%   -10.4
            
Alpena   37.9%   
Deer   62.1%   -6.5

Wonderview   62.5%   -6.3   
Timbo   37.5%   

Hartford   18.3%   
Acorn   81.7%   -18.9

Rector   45.4%   
Calico Rock   54.6%   -2.3
      
Ouachita   39.3%   
Dermott   60.7%   -5.5

Wow at that Concord/Guy game. It should live up to the hype.

thechampchamp


thechampchamp

So is Nevada any good?? I know they were pretty strong last year. Anyone know anything about them this year?

BannerChaser95

Quote from: thechampchamp on February 21, 2018, 08:51:51 am
So is Nevada any good?? I know they were pretty strong last year. Anyone know anything about them this year?
Have gotten better. Will win their region, win their first game in state then lose to region 4 winner or region 3 3rd seed in the second round.

thechampchamp

And whats up with the Midland MVE game?? I see it being pretty close..

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: thechampchamp on February 21, 2018, 09:01:03 am
And whats up with the Midland MVE game?? I see it being pretty close..

It could be! Midland is a decent club, but I really think MVE will be fine. There are going to be some really good games in that region.

Ba$ketballFan54321

February 23, 2018, 08:12:19 am #43 Last Edit: February 23, 2018, 08:41:57 am by Ba$ketballFan54321
Congrats to all the schools who are going to the state tournament! Great accomplishment. Now that the field is set, it's time to see how it all shakes out. Here are the lines for tonight's games:

Woodlawn   57.9%   -4.0
Strong   42.1%   
         
Bay   19.6%   
Izard County   80.4%   -17.8
      
Kingston   46.5%   
Western Grove   53.5%   -1.8
   
County Line   52.4%   -1.2
Kirby   47.6%   
   
Guy-Perkins   71.8%   -11.6
Maumelle Charter   28.2%   
   
Deer   32.5%   
Omaha   67.5%   -9.1
   
Dermott   45.4%   
Nevada   54.6%   -2.3

Acorn   47.1%   
Scranton   52.9%   -1.4
   
Rector   49.2%   
Armorel   50.8%   -0.4

Wonderview   34.1%   
Mt. Vernon-Enola   65.9%   -8.2

Flobbito

I enjoy these posts, it seems to have been mostly accurate so far.

BannerMountainMan

Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 23, 2018, 08:12:19 am
Congrats to all the schools who are going to the state tournament! Great accomplishment. Now that the field is set, it's time to see how it all shakes out. Here are the lines for tonight's games:

Woodlawn   57.9%   -4.0
Strong   42.1%   
         
Ridgefield Christian   21.8%   
Izard County   78.2%   -15.9
         
Kingston   46.5%   
Western Grove   53.5%   -1.8
   
County Line   52.4%   -1.2
Kirby   47.6%   
   
Guy-Perkins   71.8%   -11.6
Maumelle Charter   28.2%   
   
Deer   32.5%   
Omaha   67.5%   -9.1
   
Dermott   45.4%   
Nevada   54.6%   -2.3

Acorn   47.1%   
Scranton   52.9%   -1.4
   
Rector   49.2%   
Armorel   50.8%   -0.4

Wonderview   34.1%   
Mt. Vernon-Enola   65.9%   -8.2
Maumelle Charter over Guy I'm calling it!!

BannerChaser95

Much closer games today.

And shouldn't it be Bay and icc?

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: Flobbito on February 23, 2018, 08:19:34 am
I enjoy these posts, it seems to have been mostly accurate so far.

Thanks! I'm glad to hear that someone enjoys them. Yeah you're never going to shoot 100% haha but I've been pleased with the accuracy. And of course there will always be upsets, but that's what makes things fun, right?

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: BannerChaser95 on February 23, 2018, 08:37:02 am
Much closer games today.

And shouldn't it be Bay and icc?

Yes it should! Sorry about that. Fixed.

thebigman3

Nevada and Dermott game of the day for me.

Fox 16 Arkansas Fox 24 Arkansas