I'm going to try to do this throughout the postseason for those interested. Unfortunately, I only have info for the boys. Feel free to compare it to MaxPreps. Their info can be found here: Boys (http://www.maxpreps.com/rankings/basketball-winter-17-18/1/division/ar/XBrOJsGAUUejJNgXNxGt-A/division-1a.htm) Girls (http://www.maxpreps.com/rankings/girls-basketball-winter-17-18/1/division/ar/4o5vVFtQ9UGFs1lah6IphA/division-1a.htm)
As always, mine can be found here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YULs0sSgpHDLXqDJuFJTocHFHE2pu-CL724HuGJblnE/edit?usp=sharing).
Without further ado..
Scranton -32.5 93.5%
Oark 6.8%
Maumelle Charter -0.7 51.4%
Sacred Heart 48.6%
Rural Special 22.4%
West Side -15.6 77.6%
Viola 42.2%
Hillcrest -3.9 57.8%
Crowley's -7.8 65.2%
Maynard 34.8%
Acorn -29.6 91.3%
Mount Ida 8.7%
South Side 37.6%
Bradford -6.4 62.4%
Marvell 49.6%
Wonderview -0.2 50.4%
Bruno-Pyatt 49.8%
Mount Judea -0.1 50.2%
Norfork 26.5%
Mammoth Spring -12.7 73.5%
Mineral Springs -8.6 66.7%
Oden 33.3%
And if there's any games I'm missing let me know!
Missing one boys game from 7West 5 mineral spring vs 4 Oden
Quote from: BannerChaser95 on February 12, 2018, 12:31:48 pm
Missing one boys game from 7West 5 mineral spring vs 4 Oden
Added, thanks!
Gonna say Marvell and Wonderview will be the game of the day..
Lead Hill vs Decatur?
Tuesday's games. I'm sure I'm missing some so just let me know any games that you're interested in.
Lead Hill 3.6%
Omaha -41.3 96.4%
Maumelle Charter 34.6%
Mt. Vernon-Enola -7.9 65.4%
Alpena 45.0%
Kingston -2.5 55.0%
West Side 38.5%
Timbo -5.8 61.5%
Wonderview 29.3%
Guy-Perkins -10.9 70.7%
Bradford 17.7%
Shirley -19.5 82.3%
Bruno-Pyatt 15.8%
Jasper -20.9 84.2%
Umpire 5.0%
Dierks -36.8 95.0%
What would bigun3 and chump chump do if Wonderview beat guy?
Quote from: JimmyChitwood on February 13, 2018, 09:13:24 am
What would bigun3 and chump chump do if Wonderview beat guy?
wouldnt they still make regionals or no?
only time will tell
Quote from: BannerChaser95 on February 13, 2018, 09:48:56 am
yes as a 3 or 4seed
The difference in a 1/2 seed and a 3/4 seed in Regionals is huge. Guy has a 95% chance to make the state tournament if they win this one and a 20% chance if they lose. That's a
really big swing.
Thursday 2/15
Taylor 18.4%
Bradley -18.8 81.6%
Strong 36.0%
Woodlawn -7.2 64.0%
Hartford 4.9%
County Line -39.1 95.1%
Timbo 17.3%
Concord -19.8 82.7%
Hillcrest 16.9%
Izard County -19.8 83.1%
Dierks -2.6 55.3%
Acorn 44.7%
Mammoth Spring 38.4%
Calico Rock -5.9 61.6%
Shirley 44.7%
Midland -2.6 55.3%
Kirby oden in 7West semis
Scranton/Wyc in 1West
Oden 4.2%
Kirby -39.3 95.8%
Western Yell County 15.4%
Scranton -21.2 84.6%
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 15, 2018, 08:38:58 am
Thursday 2/15
Taylor 18.4%
Bradley -18.8 81.6%
Strong 36.0%
Woodlawn -7.2 64.0%
Hartford 4.9%
County Line -39.1 95.1%
Timbo 17.3%
Concord -19.8 82.7%
Hillcrest 16.9%
Izard County -19.8 83.1%
Dierks -2.6 55.3%
Acorn 44.7%
Mammoth Spring 38.4%
Calico Rock -5.9 61.6%
Shirley 44.7%
Midland -2.6 55.3%
wow concord a 20 point favorite
Concord had beat Timbo twice this year by 30. Guess it was one of those nights. Yikes. They will bounce back. They're a good team.
Props to Timbo! Huge win.
Friday's games!
The games of the day happen in 5North, both basically coin flips.
Should be a good day of games. They only get more important here on out!
Guy-Perkins -3.3 56.6%
Mt. Vernon-Enola 43.4%
Maumelle Charter 49.5%
Wonderview -0.3 50.5%
Trinity Christian 32.8%
Bradley -8.9 67.2%
Kingston 22.5%
Omaha -15.4 77.5%
Scranton 16.8%
County Line -20.0 83.2%
Strong 34.4%
Dermott -8.1 65.6%
Hampton 22.4%
Woodlawn -15.5 77.6%
Any projections on Deer v. Western Grove in 1-East final tonight?
Spreadsheet updated post-district tournaments. I'll try to post some more regional/state probabilities later!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YULs0sSgpHDLXqDJuFJTocHFHE2pu-CL724HuGJblnE/edit#gid=0
Here's each team's chances to win their region. Region 3 and Region 5 both look really wide open.
Region 1:
Omaha 56.2%
Western Grove 15.9%
Deer 12.0%
Kingston 9.9%
Alpena 5.1%
Jasper 0.8%
Bruno-Pyatt 0.1%
Lead Hill 0.0%
Omaha is the clear favorite here so no surprises there.
Region 2:
Izard County 49.6%
Calico Rock 11.2%
Armorel 9.6%
Rector 8.0%
Bay 7.9%
Ridgefield Christian 5.9%
Mammoth Spring 3.9%
Hillcrest 3.9%
Izard the clear favorite but there's a few teams in the next tier that could make some noise.
Region 3:
Mt. Vernon-Enola 27.2%
Guy-Perkins 23.8%
Concord 21.0%
Wonderview 9.1%
Shirley 7.2%
Maumelle Charter 5.0%
Midland 3.7%
Timbo 3.0%
3 teams right there together at the top. This region is really interesting because Guy and Concord meet in the first round, which is a big-time match-up.
Region 4:
Kirby 41.6%
County Line 31.8%
Scranton 11.7%
Acorn 10.0%
Dierks 4.4%
Hartford 0.3%
Oden 0.2%
Western Yell County 0.0%
Kirby or County line should take this one, however, they'll be meeting in the second round instead of the finals so a really good team will be entering state as a 3 or 4 seed.
Region 5:
Nevada 24.9%
Dermott 20.0%
Woodlawn 17.6%
Bradley 12.9%
Strong 12.9%
Ouachita 7.3%
Hampton 2.5%
Trinity Christian 1.9%
Totally wide open. No clear favorite here. Should be some fun games all around.
As always feel free to ask me questions about my numbers! Enjoy what should be a great week of basketball!
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 20, 2018, 08:20:00 am
Here's each team's chances to win their region. Region 3 and Region 5 both look really wide open.
Region 1:
Omaha 56.2%
Western Grove 15.9%
Deer 12.0%
Kingston 9.9%
Alpena 5.1%
Jasper 0.8%
Bruno-Pyatt 0.1%
Lead Hill 0.0%
Omaha is the clear favorite here so no surprises there.
Region 2:
Izard County 49.6%
Calico Rock 11.2%
Armorel 9.6%
Rector 8.0%
Bay 7.9%
Ridgefield Christian 5.9%
Mammoth Spring 3.9%
Hillcrest 3.9%
Izard the clear favorite but there's a few teams in the next tier that could make some noise.
Region 3:
Mt. Vernon-Enola 27.2%
Guy-Perkins 23.8%
Concord 21.0%
Wonderview 9.1%
Shirley 7.2%
Maumelle Charter 5.0%
Midland 3.7%
Timbo 3.0%
3 teams right there together at the top. This region is really interesting because Guy and Concord meet in the first round, which is a big-time match-up.
Region 4:
Kirby 41.6%
County Line 31.8%
Scranton 11.7%
Acorn 10.0%
Dierks 4.4%
Hartford 0.3%
Oden 0.2%
Western Yell County 0.0%
Kirby or County line should take this one, however, they'll be meeting in the second round instead of the finals so a really good team will be entering state as a 3 or 4 seed.
Region 5:
Nevada 24.9%
Dermott 20.0%
Woodlawn 17.6%
Bradley 12.9%
Strong 12.9%
Ouachita 7.3%
Hampton 2.5%
Trinity Christian 1.9%
Totally wide open. No clear favorite here. Should be some fun games all around.
As always feel free to ask me questions about my numbers! Enjoy what should be a great week of basketball!
Giving dierks a 4.4% chance to win the region but I don't know if the intangible home court is appearing in the calculations. Whenever the lines come out for opening rounds. I'm excited to see County Line - Dierks, Bay - Mammoth Springs, and Concord - Guy-Perkins lines. Interesting 2-3 match ups but the Dierks/County Lines not getting enough notice. Especially with dierks having 1 loss at home in the last 2 seasons.
Here's the win probabilities for every first round match-up. Obviously, this is the biggest game of the year (up to this point) for every team because it's win or go home!
Wednesday's Games:
Maumelle Charter 47.3%
Shirley 52.7% -1.3
Ridgefield Christian 21.8%
Izard County 78.2% -15.9
Trinity Christian 33.9%
Strong 66.1% -8.4
Lead Hill 9.9%
Western Grove 90.1% -28.1
Western Yell County 4.6%
Kirby 95.4% -37.6
Oden 12.0%
Scranton 88.0% -24.9
Midland 28.2%
Mt. Vernon-Enola 71.8% -11.7
Bruno-Pyatt 2.3%
Omaha 97.7% -46.5
Hillcrest 41.9%
Armorel 58.1% -4.2
Hampton 24.7%
Nevada 75.3% -14.1
Thursday's games:
Concord 50.7% -0.4
Guy-Perkins 49.3%
Mammoth Spring 43.1%
Bay 56.9% -3.5
Woodlawn 53.8% -1.9
Bradley 46.2%
Dierks 28.0%
County Line 72.0% -12.4
Jasper 30.3%
Kingston 69.7% -10.4
Alpena 37.9%
Deer 62.1% -6.5
Wonderview 62.5% -6.3
Timbo 37.5%
Hartford 18.3%
Acorn 81.7% -18.9
Rector 45.4%
Calico Rock 54.6% -2.3
Ouachita 39.3%
Dermott 60.7% -5.5
Quote from: BannerChaser95 on February 20, 2018, 10:53:06 am
Giving dierks a 4.4% chance to win the region but I don't know if the intangible home court is appearing in the calculations. Whenever the lines come out for opening rounds. I'm excited to see County Line - Dierks, Bay - Mammoth Springs, and Concord - Guy-Perkins lines. Interesting 2-3 match ups but the Dierks/County Lines not getting enough noticed. Especially with dierks having 1 loss at home in the last 2 seasons.
Home court advantage
is factored in! But yes I agree, the County Line-Dierks matchup is one that I'm really excited about. Dierks is a team that my model is unsure about. Their Elo rating is pretty strong (which is based on wins/losses and gives more weight to recent games), while their SRS (based on margin of victory) is more mediocre. So that's a game where it may end up being closer than what the point spread (-12.4) says.
Quote from: eamo8911 on February 20, 2018, 10:58:37 am
Whoops! the -6.5 is correct for Deer-Alpena, I fixed the original post.
How do you adjust for home court advantage?
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 20, 2018, 11:00:37 am
Home court advantage is factored in! But yes I agree, the County Line-Dierks matchup is one that I'm really excited about. Dierks is a team that my model is unsure about. Their Elo rating is pretty strong (which is based on wins/losses and gives more weight to recent games), while their SRS (based on margin of victory) is more mediocre. So that's a game where it may end up being closer than what the point spread (-12.4) says.
Interesting, well it would be the equivalent of Timbo over Concord on paper. However I feel it's a little more than that because Dierks size could match up well with the bigger teams in 1A.
Quote from: no mascot on February 20, 2018, 11:23:15 am
How do you adjust for home court advantage?
Based on my research from the past few seasons, home court advantage is about 3.5 points. Which is the same as the NBA, interestingly enough.
Quote from: BannerChaser95 on February 20, 2018, 11:35:26 am
Interesting, well it would be the equivalent of Timbo over Concord on paper. However I feel it's a little more than that because Dierks size could match up well with the bigger teams in 1A.
Good point! And that's something that the computer can't account for...match-up issues. We all know that size, style of play, etc play a big role in basketball.
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 20, 2018, 11:37:21 am
Based on my research from the past few seasons, home court advantage is about 3.5 points. Which is the same as the NBA, interestingly enough.
I see where you calculated incorrectly. Dierks is about 10-15 points court and 5-6 call a game advantage... haha
Quote from: BannerChaser95 on February 20, 2018, 11:58:29 am
I see where you calculated incorrectly. Dierks is about 10-15 points court and 5-6 call a game advantage...
Hahaha that's what I've heard. Maybe one of these days I'll look at individual teams and see which have the biggest home court advantage. It might be interesting or it may not really tell anything.
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 13, 2018, 08:07:44 am
Tuesday's games. I'm sure I'm missing some so just let me know any games that you're interested in.
Lead Hill 3.6%
Omaha -41.3 96.4%
Maumelle Charter 34.6%
Mt. Vernon-Enola -7.9 65.4%
Alpena 45.0%
Kingston -2.5 55.0%
West Side 38.5%
Timbo -5.8 61.5%
Wonderview 29.3%
Guy-Perkins -10.9 70.7%
Bradford 17.7%
Shirley -19.5 82.3%
Bruno-Pyatt 15.8%
Jasper -20.9 84.2%
Umpire 5.0%
Dierks -36.8 95.0%
Man I would love to bet some serious cash on Dierks.
BannerChaser got me thinking so I ran a quick analysis on home/road/neutral splits for teams. And Dierks is actually one of the best teams at home. They're about 9.5 points better at home (compared to the 3.5 that you'd expect). This analysis is only for this season so of course it could just be a random thing and not anything significant. Anyone who's had a statistics class should know that haha. But it is interesting!
If that much of a home court advantage is really the case then you're looking at a 6.4 spread for the County Line game rather than 12.4, which is a really big difference.
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 20, 2018, 03:18:56 pm
BannerChaser got me thinking so I ran a quick analysis on home/road/neutral splits for teams. And Dierks is actually one of the best teams at home. They're about 9.5 points better at home (compared to the 3.5 that you'd expect). This analysis is only for this season so of course it could just be a random thing and not anything significant. Anyone who's had a statistics class should know that haha. But it is interesting!
If that much of a home court advantage is really the case then you're looking at a 6.4 spread for the County Line game rather than 12.4, which is a really big difference.
I guess the 5-6 calls just make it feel a little bigger than that. Either way I expect a big game, I remember how it was at County Line last year against Mineral Springs and the calling and home court advantage was definitely in effect for that Semi-Final game. So if they catch a dose of their own medicine they may be leaving the scene earlier than most expected.
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 20, 2018, 10:55:44 am
Here's the win probabilities for every first round match-up. Obviously, this is the biggest game of the year (up to this point) for every team because it's win or go home!
Wednesday's Games:
Maumelle Charter 47.3%
Shirley 52.7% -1.3
Ridgefield Christian 21.8%
Izard County 78.2% -15.9
Trinity Christian 33.9%
Strong 66.1% -8.4
Lead Hill 9.9%
Western Grove 90.1% -28.1
Western Yell County 4.6%
Kirby 95.4% -37.6
Oden 12.0%
Scranton 88.0% -24.9
Midland 28.2%
Mt. Vernon-Enola 71.8% -11.7
Bruno-Pyatt 2.3%
Omaha 97.7% -46.5
Hillcrest 41.9%
Armorel 58.1% -4.2
Hampton 24.7%
Nevada 75.3% -14.1
Thursday's games:
Concord 50.7% -0.4
Guy-Perkins 49.3%
Mammoth Spring 43.1%
Bay 56.9% -3.5
Woodlawn 53.8% -1.9
Bradley 46.2%
Dierks 28.0%
County Line 72.0% -12.4
Jasper 30.3%
Kingston 69.7% -10.4
Alpena 37.9%
Deer 62.1% -6.5
Wonderview 62.5% -6.3
Timbo 37.5%
Hartford 18.3%
Acorn 81.7% -18.9
Rector 45.4%
Calico Rock 54.6% -2.3
Ouachita 39.3%
Dermott 60.7% -5.5
Wow at that Concord/Guy game. It should live up to the hype.
Its gonna be a wild one :-X
So is Nevada any good?? I know they were pretty strong last year. Anyone know anything about them this year?
Quote from: thechampchamp on February 21, 2018, 08:51:51 am
So is Nevada any good?? I know they were pretty strong last year. Anyone know anything about them this year?
Have gotten better. Will win their region, win their first game in state then lose to region 4 winner or region 3 3rd seed in the second round.
And whats up with the Midland MVE game?? I see it being pretty close..
Quote from: thechampchamp on February 21, 2018, 09:01:03 am
And whats up with the Midland MVE game?? I see it being pretty close..
It could be! Midland is a decent club, but I really think MVE will be fine. There are going to be some really good games in that region.
Congrats to all the schools who are going to the state tournament! Great accomplishment. Now that the field is set, it's time to see how it all shakes out. Here are the lines for tonight's games:
Woodlawn 57.9% -4.0
Strong 42.1%
Bay 19.6%
Izard County 80.4% -17.8
Kingston 46.5%
Western Grove 53.5% -1.8
County Line 52.4% -1.2
Kirby 47.6%
Guy-Perkins 71.8% -11.6
Maumelle Charter 28.2%
Deer 32.5%
Omaha 67.5% -9.1
Dermott 45.4%
Nevada 54.6% -2.3
Acorn 47.1%
Scranton 52.9% -1.4
Rector 49.2%
Armorel 50.8% -0.4
Wonderview 34.1%
Mt. Vernon-Enola 65.9% -8.2
I enjoy these posts, it seems to have been mostly accurate so far.
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 23, 2018, 08:12:19 am
Congrats to all the schools who are going to the state tournament! Great accomplishment. Now that the field is set, it's time to see how it all shakes out. Here are the lines for tonight's games:
Woodlawn 57.9% -4.0
Strong 42.1%
Ridgefield Christian 21.8%
Izard County 78.2% -15.9
Kingston 46.5%
Western Grove 53.5% -1.8
County Line 52.4% -1.2
Kirby 47.6%
Guy-Perkins 71.8% -11.6
Maumelle Charter 28.2%
Deer 32.5%
Omaha 67.5% -9.1
Dermott 45.4%
Nevada 54.6% -2.3
Acorn 47.1%
Scranton 52.9% -1.4
Rector 49.2%
Armorel 50.8% -0.4
Wonderview 34.1%
Mt. Vernon-Enola 65.9% -8.2
Maumelle Charter over Guy I'm calling it!!
Much closer games today.
And shouldn't it be Bay and icc?
Quote from: Flobbito on February 23, 2018, 08:19:34 am
I enjoy these posts, it seems to have been mostly accurate so far.
Thanks! I'm glad to hear that someone enjoys them. Yeah you're never going to shoot 100% haha but I've been pleased with the accuracy. And of course there will always be upsets, but that's what makes things fun, right?
Quote from: BannerChaser95 on February 23, 2018, 08:37:02 am
Much closer games today.
And shouldn't it be Bay and icc?
Yes it should! Sorry about that. Fixed.
Nevada and Dermott game of the day for me.
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 23, 2018, 08:12:19 am
Congrats to all the schools who are going to the state tournament! Great accomplishment. Now that the field is set, it's time to see how it all shakes out. Here are the lines for tonight's games:
Woodlawn 57.9% -4.0
Strong 42.1%
Bay 19.6%
Izard County 80.4% -17.8
Kingston 46.5%
Western Grove 53.5% -1.8
County Line 52.4% -1.2
Kirby 47.6%
Guy-Perkins 71.8% -11.6
Maumelle Charter 28.2%
Deer 32.5%
Omaha 67.5% -9.1
Dermott 45.4%
Nevada 54.6% -2.3
Acorn 47.1%
Scranton 52.9% -1.4
Rector 49.2%
Armorel 50.8% -0.4
Wonderview 34.1%
Mt. Vernon-Enola 65.9% -8.2
My upset pick would be WV over MVE. Squires is a great coach and probabaky has a game plan. I do, however, think MVE will win but wouldn't surprise me if WV wins. Good luck to both.
Quote from: thebigman3 on February 23, 2018, 11:41:08 am
Nevada and Dermott game of the day for me.
Should be a good one! That region is so evenly matched. No overwhelming favorite. Any of the 4 teams left could conceivably win it.
It was a packed house at Alpena last night and it will be even more crowded tonight.. Great atmosphere and excellent hosts! We're gonna get there early!
I think the Deer vs Omaha game may be closer then projected here.. Western Grove and Kingston is a coin flip, staying out of foul trouble may be the key to this one..
Thanks for the projections, I enjoy reading them!
Quote from: doctor in the house on February 23, 2018, 11:54:11 am
It was a packed house at Alpena last night and it will be even more crowded tonight.. Great atmosphere and excellent hosts! We're gonna get there early!
I think the Deer vs Omaha game may be closer then projected here.. Western Grove and Kingston is a coin flip, staying out of foul trouble may be the key to this one..
Thanks for the projections, I enjoy reading them!
Yeah I'm gonna agree with you there.. I'd be inclined to take the under on Deer vs Omaha. Should be two really good games!
You're welcome! Glad you enjoy them.
Deer is due for a good game, didn't play well in finals against Grove and played terrible last night against Alpena. If they would of played Omaha last night Omaha would of mercy ruled them.
Quote from: begpmat on February 23, 2018, 01:03:34 pm
Deer is due for a good game, didn't play well in finals against Grove and played terrible last night against Alpena. If they would of played Omaha last night Omaha would of mercy ruled them.
Or it's the track record of not being a good post season team
Quote from: BannerMountainMan on February 23, 2018, 08:33:07 am
Maumelle Charter over Guy I'm calling it!!
Lets just go ahead and get this out of the way so yall can save your time. Yall will all be "calling" that guy loses to every team they play because thats what you wanna see. Your teams season is over so you decide to start hating. Im sure we will hear about that "horrible call" until next season starts. Smh
That's crazy how much a difference a night makes for Charter, couldn't miss tough shots the other night and they couldn't make any wide open shots tonight and Guy's snowbirding offense was impressive! They are clicking at the right time
Plenty of upsets last night!
Here are today's games:
3rd/4th place games:
Scranton 21.0%
County Line 79.0% -16.7
Rector 19.9%
Izard County 80.1% -17.3
Omaha 75.1% -13.7
Western Grove 24.9%
Wonderview 52.8% -1.4
Maumelle Charter 47.2%
Dermott 52.3% -1.1
Woodlawn 47.7%
Championships:
Armorel 51.8% -0.9
Bay 48.2%
Mt. Vernon-Enola 46.1%
Guy-Perkins 53.9% -2.0
Nevada 64.3% -7.4
Strong 35.7%
Acorn 20.5%
Kirby 79.5% -16.9
Deer 62.3% -6.4
Kingston 37.7%
Considering how close WG played Omaha last time I think they have a lot higher chance than what's said here.. should be an interesting game.
State tournament time!
Win 1st Elite 8 Final 4 Finals Champs
Kingston 100.0% 58.7% 25.4% 6.4% 2.6%
Woodlawn 46.7% 19.3% 7.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Rector 53.3% 22.0% 8.7% 2.1% 0.5%
Acorn 100.0% 37.5% 18.5% 4.8% 1.2%
MVE 100.0% 62.5% 39.6% 14.5% 7.1%
Kirby 100.0% 65.1% 38.0% 28.8% 18.5%
M.Charter 20.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Omaha 80.0% 32.4% 16.7% 11.9% 7.2%
Izard C. 100.0% 74.6% 38.1% 27.2% 15.0%
Nevada 100.0% 25.4% 6.7% 3.1% 0.9%
Bay 100.0% 27.3% 13.3% 4.8% 1.3%
C.Line 82.1% 65.2% 50.4% 32.0% 19.1%
W.view 17.9% 7.5% 3.4% 1.4% 0.3%
W. Grove 100.0% 67.7% 24.6% 9.3% 3.1%
Strong 100.0% 32.3% 8.3% 2.0% 0.1%
Guy 100.0% 72.0% 44.2% 26.1% 13.7%
Dermott 51.5% 15.5% 6.6% 3.0% 1.1%
Scranton 48.5% 12.5% 5.2% 1.3% 0.3%
Armorel 100.0% 28.7% 7.9% 2.9% 0.6%
Deer 100.0% 71.3% 36.1% 17.2% 7.0%
Is that a mess for everyone else...or just my phone?
Quote from: HorseFeathers on February 25, 2018, 01:56:24 pm
Is that a mess for everyone else...or just my phone?
works our perfect on mine.
Quote from: HorseFeathers on February 25, 2018, 01:56:24 pm
Is that a mess for everyone else...or just my phone?
thats what a flip phone will do for yah
Quad 2 has 3 teams with 18.5%, 15.0%, and 7.2% chance to win state. Quad 2 winner has the best chance to win state in my eyes.
Quote from: HorseFeathers on February 25, 2018, 01:56:24 pm
Is that a mess for everyone else...or just my phone?
I'll admit, the format is not perfect. I couldn't figure out how to make a nice, clean table. Sorry about that!
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 25, 2018, 02:11:49 pm
I'll admit, the format is not perfect. I couldn't figure out how to make a nice, clean table. Sorry about that!
Serious question....you want to learn? I can send you the code for it all with an explanation
Quote from: HorseFeathers on February 25, 2018, 02:15:17 pm
Serious question....you want to learn? I can send you the code for it all with an explanation
Yeah I do! That would be great!
After day 1!
Elite 8 Final 4 Finals Champs
Kingston 62.2% 28.9% 7.5% 3.4%
Woodlawn 37.8% 13.6% 2.7% 0.7%
Acorn 38.4% 19.2% 4.1% 0.7%
MVE 61.6% 38.3% 13.5% 5.2%
Kirby 58.0% 34.6% 26.8% 18.5%
Omaha 42.0% 22.4% 16.4% 8.5%
Izard C. 74.3% 35.8% 25.3% 13.6%
Nevada 25.7% 7.2% 3.7% 0.9%
Bay 21.2% 11.1% 3.6% 1.3%
C.Line 78.8% 63.1% 41.0% 24.4%
W. Grove 68.0% 20.3% 8.4% 3.6%
Strong 32.0% 5.5% 1.7% 0.5%
Guy 69.5% 43.0% 22.3% 10.1%
Dermott 30.5% 9.4% 3.1% 1.2%
Armorel 28.6% 9.7% 3.3% 0.8%
Deer 71.4% 37.9% 16.6% 6.6%
Also... I took MaxPreps' girls rankings and plugged them in to my tournament sim. Thought I'd share that too!
Wins: Elite 8 Final 4 Finals Champs
Jasper 59.8% 30.1% 14.9% 7.3%
Maynard 40.2% 15.8% 5.9% 2.5%
Acorn 37.2% 17.2% 8.8% 5.0%
MVE 62.8% 36.9% 22.3% 10.2%
Kirby 50.4% 29.0% 14.7% 7.5%
Concord 49.6% 29.4% 14.1% 7.1%
Mammoth 62.1% 29.6% 14.9% 7.3%
Ouachita 37.9% 12.0% 4.4% 1.9%
Norfork 86.2% 76.2% 47.0% 24.9%
Rural Spec 13.8% 6.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Alpena 56.7% 9.4% 1.7% 1.0%
Strong 43.3% 7.6% 1.5% 1.1%
W.view 90.1% 60.4% 34.7% 17.0%
Mount Ida 9.9% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Bay 73.5% 32.8% 12.3% 6.1%
Kingston 26.5% 5.1% 1.7% 0.8%
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 26, 2018, 10:39:33 pm
After day 1!
Elite 8 Final 4 Finals Champs
Kingston 62.2% 28.9% 7.5% 3.4%
Woodlawn 37.8% 13.6% 2.7% 0.7%
Acorn 38.4% 19.2% 4.1% 0.7%
MVE 61.6% 38.3% 13.5% 5.2%
Kirby 58.0% 34.6% 26.8% 18.5%
Omaha 42.0% 22.4% 16.4% 8.5%
Izard C. 74.3% 35.8% 25.3% 13.6%
Nevada 25.7% 7.2% 3.7% 0.9%
Bay 21.2% 11.1% 3.6% 1.3%
C.Line 78.8% 63.1% 41.0% 24.4%
W. Grove 68.0% 20.3% 8.4% 3.6%
Strong 32.0% 5.5% 1.7% 0.5%
Guy 69.5% 43.0% 22.3% 10.1%
Dermott 30.5% 9.4% 3.1% 1.2%
Armorel 28.6% 9.7% 3.3% 0.8%
Deer 71.4% 37.9% 16.6% 6.6%
County Line a favorite according to this. Wild stuff.
Quote from: J.D. on February 26, 2018, 10:51:04 pm
County Line a favorite according to this. Wild stuff.
Yeah the computer is still a fan of County Line, even after their 2 recent losses. Also, their side of the bracket is not quite as strong. Kirby, Izard County, and Omaha are 3 of the top 4 teams and they're all on the same side.
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 26, 2018, 11:09:14 pm
Yeah the computer is still a fan of County Line, even after their 2 recent losses. Also, their side of the bracket is not quite as strong. Kirby, Izard County, and Omaha are 3 of the top 4 teams and they're all on the same side.
2 of them face each other today... the winner? Gets the reward of either playing the other or a team capable of beating the other. JUST TO MAKE SEMIS.... then you gota win 2 more lol
Wow! It really likes county line if it's putting them with a 25% chance to be in the finals
Quote from: BannerChaser95 on February 27, 2018, 04:29:01 am
2 of them face each other today... the winner? Gets the reward of either playing the other or a team capable of beating the other. JUST TO MAKE SEMIS.... then you gota win 2 more lol
Haha yeah! It's tough!
Quote from: eamo8911 on February 27, 2018, 07:52:10 am
Wow! It really likes county line if it's putting them with a 25% chance to be in the finals
41% chance to be in the finals! 24.4% to win it all. Yeah those are really good odds.
But of course anything can happen! I mean they almost got bounced in the first round haha. You have to beat some quality teams to get there. The odds are still greater that they *don't* make it than if they do.
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 26, 2018, 10:43:16 pm
Also... I took MaxPreps' girls rankings and plugged them in to my tournament sim. Thought I'd share that too!
Wins: Elite 8 Final 4 Finals Champs
Jasper 59.8% 30.1% 14.9% 7.3%
Maynard 40.2% 15.8% 5.9% 2.5%
Acorn 37.2% 17.2% 8.8% 5.0%
MVE 62.8% 36.9% 22.3% 10.2%
Kirby 50.4% 29.0% 14.7% 7.5%
Concord 49.6% 29.4% 14.1% 7.1%
Mammoth 62.1% 29.6% 14.9% 7.3%
Ouachita 37.9% 12.0% 4.4% 1.9%
Norfork 86.2% 76.2% 47.0% 24.9%
Rural Spec 13.8% 6.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Alpena 56.7% 9.4% 1.7% 1.0%
Strong 43.3% 7.6% 1.5% 1.1%
W.view 90.1% 60.4% 34.7% 17.0%
Mount Ida 9.9% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Bay 73.5% 32.8% 12.3% 6.1%
Kingston 26.5% 5.1% 1.7% 0.8%
I'm constantly amazed and intrigued by the amount of data you process! Wow! So, just to make sure I'm reading correctly, your calculations show Wonderview beating Bay in the Quarter Finals?
Quote from: FaceInTheCrowd on February 27, 2018, 08:37:32 am
I'm constantly amazed and intrigued by the amount of data you process! Wow! So, just to make sure I'm reading correctly, your calculations show Wonderview beating Bay in the Quarter Finals?
Thanks! I'm no professional statistician or anything haha but I enjoy playing with the data.
Yes, that's correct. Wonderview has a 90.1% chance of beating Mount Ida and Bay has a 73.5% chance of beating Kingston, then Wonderview has a 60.4% chance of winning in the next round. That 60.4% is of course based on all possible outcomes so it's not straight up Wonderview vs. Bay. Hope that makes sense!
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 27, 2018, 09:16:09 am
Thanks! I'm no professional statistician or anything haha but I enjoy playing with the data.
Yes, that's correct. Wonderview has a 90.1% chance of beating Mount Ida and Bay has a 73.5% chance of beating Kingston, then Wonderview has a 60.4% chance of winning in the next round. That 60.4% is of course based on all possible outcomes so it's not straight up Wonderview vs. Bay. Hope that makes sense!
Are you using SPSS? Just curious
Quote from: eamo8911 on February 27, 2018, 11:50:55 am
Are you using SPSS? Just curious
I use Excel. Which is not the most efficient haha. I use R some but I'm just a lot more comfortable with Excel.
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 27, 2018, 09:16:09 am
Thanks! I'm no professional statistician or anything haha but I enjoy playing with the data.
Yes, that's correct. Wonderview has a 90.1% chance of beating Mount Ida and Bay has a 73.5% chance of beating Kingston, then Wonderview has a 60.4% chance of winning in the next round. That 60.4% is of course based on all possible outcomes so it's not straight up Wonderview vs. Bay. Hope that makes sense!
It does, thanks! Have you also calculated the percentage of the time that you (or should I say your spreadsheet) picks the winners correctly?
Quote from: FaceInTheCrowd on February 27, 2018, 01:22:05 pm
It does, thanks! Have you also calculated the percentage of the time that you (or should I say your spreadsheet) picks the winners correctly?
Good deal! And yes, I have. It's correct almost 85% of the time.
Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 27, 2018, 02:02:33 pm
Good deal! And yes, I have. It's correct almost 85% of the time.
p>.05 SHAAAAME! (a little stats humor)
Guess Excel won't like County Line anymore. Two of the pre-regional top 5 out today.
Wow what a day! Congrats to Woodlawn and Kirby and a big congrats to Bay. Sounds like it was a good one.
Don't listen to the computer, folks ;) LOL
Elite 8 Final 4 Finals Champs
Woodlawn 100.0% 37.1% 6.0% 1.6%
Acorn 35.0% 19.5% 4.9% 1.9%
MVE 65.0% 43.4% 15.4% 7.9%
Kirby 100.0% 61.5% 46.6% 33.4%
Izard C. 76.1% 33.9% 24.9% 15.7%
Nevada 23.9% 4.6% 2.2% 1.1%
Bay 100.0% 47.4% 18.0% 3.9%
W.Grove 68.7% 39.6% 16.8% 5.8%
Strong 31.3% 13.0% 3.2% 0.6%
Guy 71.6% 46.1% 31.6% 15.6%
Dermott 28.4% 11.3% 4.4% 1.2%
Armorel 26.7% 6.1% 2.4% 0.6%
Deer 73.3% 36.5% 23.6% 10.7%
Updated after Wednesday's games!
Elite 8 Final 4 Finals Champs
W.lawn 100.0% 31.0% 6.0% 1.7%
MVE 100.0% 69.0% 22.6% 11.1%
Kirby 100.0% 55.2% 40.8% 28.3%
Izard C. 100.0% 44.8% 30.6% 20.1%
Bay 100.0% 45.9% 14.5% 3.6%
W.Grove 67.5% 42.0% 15.9% 6.1%
Strong 32.5% 12.1% 3.1% 0.6%
Guy 100.0% 64.3% 44.4% 20.1%
Armorel 27.1% 5.6% 2.5% 0.4%
Deer 72.9% 30.1% 19.6% 8.0%
I hope this is correct for today but no better than the region 1 have played so far I have some doubts...
Quote from: doctor in the house on March 01, 2018, 09:11:37 am
I hope this is correct for today but no better than the region 1 have played so far I have some doubts...
Armorel/Deer could be a lot closer than what is projected. Each team has a big difference in their Elo and their SRS (points above average). If you look at just their SRS it's basically a coin flip.
We'll have a final 4 after today!
Final 4 Finals Champs
MVE 100.0% 32.6% 16.3%
Kirby 55.9% 37.7% 27.1%
Izard C. 44.1% 29.7% 19.9%
Bay 43.8% 14.5% 3.1%
W.Grove 56.2% 24.7% 8.3%
Guy 78.9% 53.2% 23.7%
Armorel 21.1% 7.6% 1.6%
And the lines for today:
Kirby -3
Izard County
Bay
Western Grove -2
Guy -16
Armorel
And here's the girls (using MaxPreps rankings):
Final 4 Finals Champs
MVE 100.0% 58.3% 29.0%
Kirby 51.7% 24.7% 11.3%
Mammoth 48.3% 17.0% 8.3%
Norfork 86.0% 52.1% 26.4%
Alpena 14.0% 1.8% 0.9%
W.view 60.9% 29.8% 15.2%
Bay 39.1% 16.3% 8.9%
What ya got for today!
Today's lines!
Mt. Vernon-Enola 34.7%
Izard County -7.8 65.3%
Western Grove 32.1%
Guy-Perkins -9.4 67.9%
I gotta pick Region 3... both for boys and girls..
I appreciate everyone who has read my posts and commented on my projections. This has made something that I merely do as a hobby really worthwhile. It has been a fun year of basketball. We'll see what the future holds but I hope to keep providing content in some capacity again next year.
Annnnnd the final line for the 17-18 season!
Guy-Perkins 43.1%
Izard County -3.4 56.9%
Should be a good one! Good luck to both teams.