Wild, wild, West

[Devil Dog 17]

Man i'm confused. Obviously I'm a Devil Dog fan, and i'm gonna cheer for my dogs, but i'm not sure whom to pull for or against in the other games.  If the playoffs were to begin after last Fri night, we would be on the outside looking in.  Funny thing is, we could still get the one seed, or be left completely out with 3 games left.  I think I want Harrison to beat Alma, because we beat Alma. Greenbrier, Alma, Harrison, and Maumelle each have one loss.  Either Harrison or Alma will end up with two losses after this week.  Maumelle plays a tough Farmington team. Greenbrier plays an improving Clarksville team that gave Alma all they wanted last week, and we have Vilonia who is desperate for a win.  I have a feeling that this won't be decided until the last regular season game ends.  This is going to be interesting to say the least.

[Chief_Osceola™]

I think a team has to finish 5-2 to be safe.  4-3 may not be enough to get in. 

[woopork]

I went through the other day and wrote out scenarios and it's still a lot to process and that's with 3 or 4 predictable scenarios. I have a feeling that it won't be an expected outcome in at least 1 of the games.

Below is teams and who they play as well as the spread according to CalPreps. Don't get especially upset about it if they pick your team to lose.

Vilonia - Morrilton (+32), Clarksville (+7), Greenbrier (+34)                        0-3                     
Harrison - Alma (-3), Maumelle (-10), Farmington (-21)                              3-0 ( 26 )
Farmington - Maumelle (+8), Morrilton (+15), Harrison (+21)                     0-3 
Greenbrier - Clarksville (-21), Alma (+1), Vilonia (-34)                               2-1 ( 26 )
Maumelle - Farmington (-8), Harrison (+10), Alma (+7)                             1-2 ( 8 )
Morrilton - Vilonia (-32), Farmington (-15), Clarksville (-27)                         3-0 ( 39 )
Alma - Harrison (+3), Greenbrier (-1), Maumelle (-7)                                  2-1 ( 8 )
Clarksville - Greenbrier (+21), Vilonia (-7), Morrilton (+27)                          1-2

If this was the case, Harrison would be the 1, Morrilton 2 with 55 total points, Greenbrier 3 with 54 totals points, Alma 4 with 47.

Something else is going to happen to throw this into chaos though even more. To get the best chance at a 1 seed, Morrilton needs to win all the games by at least 13 and cheer against The current 3-1 teams. In cases where they play each other, you are going to want the one with the easiest remaining schedule to lose the game. Alma still have Harrison, Greenbrier, and Maumelle left. 3 of the top 5 in the conference. Harrison has Alma, Farmington, and Maumelle, so it looks like Harrison has a better chance of winning out after this week.

Best case scenario for Morrilton, Harrison beats Alma, Alma beats Greenbrier, Maumelle/Farmington beat Harrison. That would put at least 4 5-2 teams and goes to tiebreaker. After saying this, I believe it may be possible for their to be a 5 way tie for 1st if Harrison beats Alma and Farmington but loses to Maumelle. Alma beats Maumelle and Greenbrier but loses to Harrison. Greenbrier beats Clarksville and Vilonia but loses to Alma. Morrilton wins out. Maumelle beats Harrison and Farmington and Harrison but loses to Alma.

That'd be chaos. 5 teams with the same record and 1 of them doesn't make it.

I may be wrong on some of this but my head hurts now after imagining all the different scenarios.

[woopork]

I think a team has to finish 5-2 to be safe.  4-3 may not be enough to get in.

The scenarios for a 4-3 team making it in, which might happen, but that gets too crazy. In my scenario below even 1 of the 5-2 teams won't make it... either way, 1 team is gonna be mad and seeing as we have Morrilton killed Maumelle, Maumelle beat Greenbrier, Greenbrier killed Harrison and beat Morrilton, and Morrilton was up near mercy rule on Alma if I remember correctly before Alma came back and gave Voice a heart attack.

Wild West is way too fitting a name.

[Chief_Osceola™]

The scenarios for a 4-3 team making it in, which might happen, but that gets too crazy. In my scenario below even 1 of the 5-2 teams won't make it... either way, 1 team is gonna be mad and seeing as we have Morrilton killed Maumelle, Maumelle beat Greenbrier, Greenbrier killed Harrison and beat Morrilton, and Morrilton was up near mercy rule on Alma if I remember correctly before Alma came back and gave Voice a heart attack.

Wild West is way too fitting a name.

Yeah I was briefly looking to see if it was a possibility of there being at least 4 teams that are 5-2, and then if the scenario of having 5 teams at 5-2 was possible.  It gave me a headache too.

[Go Postal]

[PA Dad]

Postal, I have no idea how you do it, but I wish you would teach a class.  I'd pay to attend.

[bobcat81]

I went through the other day and wrote out scenarios and it's still a lot to process and that's with 3 or 4 predictable scenarios. I have a feeling that it won't be an expected outcome in at least 1 of the games.

Below is teams and who they play as well as the spread according to CalPreps. Don't get especially upset about it if they pick your team to lose.

Vilonia - Morrilton (+32), Clarksville (+7), Greenbrier (+34)                        0-3                     
Harrison - Alma (-3), Maumelle (-10), Farmington (-21)                              3-0 ( 26 )
Farmington - Maumelle (+8), Morrilton (+15), Harrison (+21)                     0-3 
Greenbrier - Clarksville (-21), Alma (+1), Vilonia (-34)                               2-1 ( 26 )
Maumelle - Farmington (-8), Harrison (+10), Alma (+7)                             1-2 ( 8 )
Morrilton - Vilonia (-32), Farmington (-15), Clarksville (-27)                         3-0 ( 39 )
Alma - Harrison (+3), Greenbrier (-1), Maumelle (-7)                                  2-1 ( 8 )
Clarksville - Greenbrier (+21), Vilonia (-7), Morrilton (+27)                          1-2

If this was the case, Harrison would be the 1, Morrilton 2 with 55 total points, Greenbrier 3 with 54 totals points, Alma 4 with 47.

Something else is going to happen to throw this into chaos though even more. To get the best chance at a 1 seed, Morrilton needs to win all the games by at least 13 and cheer against The current 3-1 teams. In cases where they play each other, you are going to want the one with the easiest remaining schedule to lose the game. Alma still have Harrison, Greenbrier, and Maumelle left. 3 of the top 5 in the conference. Harrison has Alma, Farmington, and Maumelle, so it looks like Harrison has a better chance of winning out after this week.

Best case scenario for Morrilton, Harrison beats Alma, Alma beats Greenbrier, Maumelle/Farmington beat Harrison. That would put at least 4 5-2 teams and goes to tiebreaker. After saying this, I believe it may be possible for their to be a 5 way tie for 1st if Harrison beats Alma and Farmington but loses to Maumelle. Alma beats Maumelle and Greenbrier but loses to Harrison. Greenbrier beats Clarksville and Vilonia but loses to Alma. Morrilton wins out. Maumelle beats Harrison and Farmington and Harrison but loses to Alma.

That'd be chaos. 5 teams with the same record and 1 of them doesn't make it.

I may be wrong on some of this but my head hurts now after imagining all the different scenarios.

Thanks for the analysis!  One slight correction and a reminder to all of us, the points really just determine who is paired together for consideration of who won the head to head.  So in this scenario Morrilton and Greenbrier would be paired for 2nd, and since Greenbrier won the head-to-head they would be seed #2 even though they had fewer tiebreaker points.  Morrilton and Alma would be paired and since Morrilton won they would be #3.  Someone correct me if this is not the way it works.  But of course a lot can change in the last three weeks. 

[Go Postal]

Postal, I have no idea how you do it, but I wish you would teach a class.  I'd pay to attend.

It's all a illusion on my part.  Paw-Paw and BillyJack are the Grand Graphics Wizards.

[PA Dad]

It's all a illusion on my part.  Paw-Paw and BillyJack are the Grand Graphics Wizards.

I love illusions because I'm not smart enough to figure them out.

[Chief_Osceola™]

Man i'm confused. Obviously I'm a Devil Dog fan, and i'm gonna cheer for my dogs, but i'm not sure whom to pull for or against in the other games.

You can't ever really go wrong rooting for Maumelle.

[PA Dad]

You can't ever really go wrong rooting for Maumelle.

Chief, at the risk of alienating other West posters, I've always pulled for Maumelle because they're a Pulaski County team.  So far, I've been disappointed.  Is this the year?

[Chief_Osceola™]

Chief, at the risk of alienating other West posters, I’ve always pulled for Maumelle because they’re a Pulaski County team.  So far, I’ve been disappointed.  Is this the year?

I sure hope so.  The new coaching staff has breathed new life into the program and we are starting to see some glimpses of what we were just a few short years ago.  And that's not a knock on the previous staff (several of which are still on the current staff), but there were a good number of factors that led to the disappointing results of the last couple of years.  It would take a small book to give a full assessment.  We're moving in the right direction, but we have 3 tough games remaining.  I think we need to win 2 of them to get a playoff spot.

[Yellowcake]

Playoffs are better when Morrilton is in them. Kudos for all the analysis above.
Go Devil Dogs. My buddy is the AD there. I know he'd be tickled to see them get in; however, he's depressed tonight because his cubbies are DONE!

[Chief_Osceola™]

Playoffs are better when Morrilton is in them. Kudos for all the analysis above.
Go Devil Dogs. My buddy is the AD there. I know he'd be tickled to see them get in; however, he's depressed tonight because his cubbies are DONE!

Small world!  I know their AD too!

Trent's a great dude, and Motown is in good hands with him running the show.

[PA Dad]

I sure hope so.  The new coaching staff has breathed new life into the program and we are starting to see some glimpses of what we were just a few short years ago.  And that's not a knock on the previous staff (several of which are still on the current staff), but there were a good number of factors that led to the disappointing results of the last couple of years.  It would take a small book to give a full assessment.  We're moving in the right direction, but we have 3 tough games remaining.  I think we need to win 2 of them to get a playoff spot.

I'm pulling for you.  The West is probably the most balanced conference this year.  Making the playoffs will be tough.

[Yellowcake]

Small world!  I know their AD too!

Trent's a great dude, and Motown is in good hands with him running the show.

We probably be  knowin' lots of the same folks.....
He's a good man. Does an awesome Harey Carey impersonation.

[Chief_Osceola™]

We probably be  knowin' lots of the same folks.....
He's a good man. Does an awesome Harey Carey impersonation.

We probably do.  Although some would probably not admit it...

[InYoGrill]

You can't ever really go wrong rooting for Maumelle.

Ha! Maulmelle is like rooting for Chapel in south. LOL! Sorry chief, you cool though. 

[Devil Dog 17]

Thanks Woopork. That helps a little.

[sevenof400]

Ha! Maulmelle is like rooting for Chapel in south. LOL! Sorry chief, you cool though. 

Grill,

Rooting for other teams might be our only play now.....well, not for Greenbrier though (of course)...

[pantherblue]

Grill,

Rooting for other teams might be our only play now.....well, not for Greenbrier though (of course)...

Easy now!! I know they impressed the poor veagles last Friday night in Harryson!!   lol

[Paw-Paw]

What's the lesson? WIN.

This conference is not forgiving and if you get behind you have to hope for certain outcomes to get you into a position where your games are no longer scheduled, but rather earned.

[woopork]

Thanks for the analysis!  One slight correction and a reminder to all of us, the points really just determine who is paired together for consideration of who won the head to head.  So in this scenario Morrilton and Greenbrier would be paired for 2nd, and since Greenbrier won the head-to-head they would be seed #2 even though they had fewer tiebreaker points.  Morrilton and Alma would be paired and since Morrilton won they would be #3.  Someone correct me if this is not the way it works.  But of course a lot can change in the last three weeks.

The way I understand it is that if it is a two way tie, it goes head to head. 3 way or more would go to  points. Otherwise if there was a three way or more triangle there'd be no fair way. A>B, B>C, C>A, head to head doesn't work. Then it goes to margin.

[Go Postal]

Grill,

Rooting for other teams might be our only play now.....well, not for Greenbrier though (of course)...

Veagles beating the 'Briar on the last game of the year.  It could always be a help for the GOBS tremendously.  Didn't the Eagles need some private donations from unknown sources to help their cause?

[AT]

Let us look at the scenario that could possibly happen in the 5A West.

Let's say Harrison beats Alma, Alma beats Greenbrier, Maumelle beats Harrison, and Alma beats Maumelle. The 4 teams in this scenario don't lose any other games (Maumelle doesn't lose to Farmington, Harrison doesn't lose to Famington, and Greenbrier doesn't lose to Clarksville or Vilonia). Not only that...Morrilton doesn't lose to Farmington, Clarksville, or Vilonia.

If this happens...

1. Alma (5-2)
1. Greenbrier (5-2)
1. Harrison (5-2)
1. Maumelle (5-2)
1. Morilton (5-2)

Woah! It is possible. I wouldn't even say it's super duper unlikely. Just pretty unlikely. It is still fun to talk about. Let us say that every team gets the max 13 TB points in their wins...not because I think that is likely but because I would rather do that than try to make up random margin of victories and it still gets the point across.

1. Alma (5-2) - 65 TB Points (2-2)
1. Morrilton (5-2) - 55 TB Points (2-2)
1. Maumelle (5-2) - 55 TB Points (2-2)
1. Greenbrier (5-2) - 54 TB Points (2-2)
1. Harrison (5-2) - 53 TB Points (2-2)

Wow so many things to dissect here. First off, the seedings would not be handed out straight down by tiebreaker points. TB points are used to make ties like this go down to two way ties or as small of ties as possible.

First off, how did these teams do against each other in this scenario? That is the first thing to look at? If you look above, all teams went 2-2 against each other. Ok now TB points...the AAA handbook states that the two teams with the greatest sum of TB points will be looked at. The problem here is that Morrilton and Maumelle have the same TB points, so you'd have to do a tiebreaker within a tiebreaker (ahh!). Morrilton beat Maumelle so the two teams left after all that would be..

Alma - 65 TB points
Morrilton - 55 TB Points.

But Alma does not get the 1 seed just because they have the most TB points, MORRILTON would because they beat Alma head to head.

So...

1. Morrilton

Ok now we have

Alma - 65 (2-1)
Maumelle - 55 (2-1)
Greenbrier - 54 (1-2)
Harrison - 53 (1-2)

Ok, do the process again. Let's look at records against each other first...Alma and Maumelle have the better records against the remaining teams, meaning we look at Alma and Maumelle only. TB points aren't needed. Alma beat Maumelle in this scenario.

So..

1. Morrilton
2. Alma

Ok now we have...

Maumelle - 55 (2-0)
Greenbrier - 54 (1-1)
Harrison - 53 (0-2)

Maumelle has the best record of the 3 against the other two...

1. Morrilton
2. Alma
3. Maumelle

Greenbrier - 54
Harrison - 53

Greenbrier beat Harrison head to head...

1. Morrilton
2. Alma
3. Maumelle
4. Greenbrier

[woopork]

Let us look at the scenario that could possibly happen in the 5A West.

Let's say Harrison beats Alma, Alma beats Greenbrier, Maumelle beats Harrison, and Alma beats Maumelle. The 4 teams in this scenario don't lose any other games (Maumelle doesn't lose to Farmington, Harrison doesn't lose to Famington, and Greenbrier doesn't lose to Clarksville or Vilonia). Not only that...Morrilton doesn't lose to Farmington, Clarksville, or Vilonia.

If this happens...

1. Alma (5-2)
1. Greenbrier (5-2)
1. Harrison (5-2)
1. Maumelle (5-2)
1. Morilton (5-2)

Woah! It is possible. I wouldn't even say it's super duper unlikely. Just pretty unlikely. It is still fun to talk about. Let us say that every team gets the max 13 TB points in their wins...not because I think that is likely but because I would rather do that than try to make up random margin of victories and it still gets the point across.

1. Alma (5-2) - 65 TB Points (2-2)
1. Morrilton (5-2) - 55 TB Points (2-2)
1. Maumelle (5-2) - 55 TB Points (2-2)
1. Greenbrier (5-2) - 54 TB Points (2-2)
1. Harrison (5-2) - 53 TB Points (2-2)

Wow so many things to dissect here. First off, the seedings would not be handed out straight down by tiebreaker points. TB points are used to make ties like this go down to two way ties or as small of ties as possible.

First off, how did these teams do against each other in this scenario? That is the first thing to look at? If you look above, all teams went 2-2 against each other. Ok now TB points...the AAA handbook states that the two teams with the greatest sum of TB points will be looked at. The problem here is that Morrilton and Maumelle have the same TB points, so you'd have to do a tiebreaker within a tiebreaker (ahh!). Morrilton beat Maumelle so the two teams left after all that would be..

Alma - 65 TB points
Morrilton - 55 TB Points.

But Alma does not get the 1 seed just because they have the most TB points, MORRILTON would because they beat Alma head to head.

So...

1. Morrilton

Ok now we have

Alma - 65 (2-1)
Maumelle - 55 (2-1)
Greenbrier - 54 (1-2)
Harrison - 53 (1-2)

Ok, do the process again. Let's look at records against each other first...Alma and Maumelle have the better records against the remaining teams, meaning we look at Alma and Maumelle only. TB points aren't needed. Alma beat Maumelle in this scenario.

So..

1. Morrilton
2. Alma

Ok now we have...

Maumelle - 55 (2-0)
Greenbrier - 54 (1-1)
Harrison - 53 (0-2)

Maumelle has the best record of the 3 against the other two...

1. Morrilton
2. Alma
3. Maumelle

Greenbrier - 54
Harrison - 53

Greenbrier beat Harrison head to head...

1. Morrilton
2. Alma
3. Maumelle
4. Greenbrier

My head hurts now. Granted this is all speculation, but still. Yikes. I have a feeling it's gonna get messy.