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Fearless Friday Important Items => Monday Morning Quarterback => Topic started by: AT on October 30, 2016, 01:22:45 am

Title: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on October 30, 2016, 01:22:45 am
There will be a lot more added to this later, but I wanted to get all my work on here. These are predictions based off the methods that I THINK(keyword) the AAA uses for reclassifying purposes.

If they have question marks beside them, I have questions that I will put on here later about how to count their enrollment.

2A/1A just means that they are 2A in football because they play fooball, but 1A in everything else.

For private schools, I just simply used their last ADM enrollment until I find a better method.

EDIT: With the actual numbers out now, I have put the actual schools with their actual ADMS out to the side in bold.

7A. Cabot - 2416.67 - 7A. Springdale - 2413.00
7A. Springdale - 2357.33 - 7A. Springdale Har-Ber - 2402.67
7A. Springdale Har-Ber - 2357.00 - 7A. Cabot - 2373.67
7A. Conway - 2134.67 - 7A. Conway - 2134.67
7A. Fayetteville - 2127.67 - 7A. Fayetteville - 2127.67
7A. Bryant - 2087.00 - 7A. Bryant - 2087.00
7A. Bentonville - 1972.83 - 7A. Bentonville - 1973.00
7A. North Little Rock - 1960.00 - 7A North Little Rock - 1931.33
7A. Little Rock Central - 1875.00 - 7A. Little Rock Central - 1875.00
7A. Fort Smith Southside - 1661.00 - 7A. Rogers - 1781.67
7A. Fort Smith Northside - 1656.00 - 7A. Forth Smith Northside - 1692.67
7A. Bentonville West - 1572.83 - 7A. Rogers Heritage - 1679.33
7A. Rogers - 1545.33 - 7A. Fort Smith Southside - 1674.33
7A. Rogers Heritage - 1459.00 - 7A. Bentonville West - 1572.33
7A. Van Buren - 1393.67 - 7A. Van Buren - 1393.67
7A. Little Rock Catholic/Mount St. Mary's - 950.00 - 7A. Little Rock Catholic/Mount St. Mary's - 969.67

6A. Jonesboro - 1241.67 - 6A. Jonesboro - 1241.67
6A. West Memphis - 1184.33 - 6A. West Memphis - 1207.00
6A. Benton - 1176.67 - 6A. Benton - 1176.33
6A. Russellville - 1149.33 - 6A. Russellville - 1149.33
6A. Lake Hamilton - 1039.67 - 6A. Lake Hamilton - 1039.67
6A. El Dorado - 1030.00 - 6A. El Dorado - 1030.00
6A. Siloam Springs - 1015.00 - 6A Siloam Springs - 1015.00
6A. Sylvan Hills - 1005.33 - 6A. Sylvan Hills - 1005.33
6A. Marion - 974.67 - 6A. Marion - 974.67
6A. Sheridan - 967.00 - 6A. Sheridan - 967.00
6A. Pine Bluff - 955.67 - 6A. Pine Bluff - 955.67
6A. Mountain Home - 933.67 - 6A. Mountain Home - 933.67
6A. Little Rock Hall - 933.00 - 6A. Little Rock Hall - 933.00
6A. Searcy - 920.67 - 6A. Searcy - 920.67
6A. Jacksonville - 912.33 - 6A. Jacksonville - 912.33
6A. Greenwood - 893.33 - 6A. Greenwood - 893.33

5A. Texarkana - 880.00 - 5A. Texarkana - 857.33
5A. Little Rock Parkview - 853.33 - 5A. Little Rock Parkview - 853.33
5A. Maumelle - 814.33 - 5A. Maumelle - 814.33
5A. Greene County Tech - 810.00 - 5A. Greene County Tech - 810.00
5A. Greenbrier - 809.00 - 5A. Greenbrier - 809.00
5A. Hot Springs Lakeside - 792.00 - 5A. Alma - 792.00
5A. Alma - 792.00 - 5A. Hot Springs Lakeside - 792.00
5A. Hot Springs - 753.00 - 5A. Vilonia - 751.33
5A. Vilonia - 751.33 - 5A. Beebe - 744.00
5A. Beebe - 748.33 - 5A. Hot Springs - 738.67
5A. Little Rock Fair - 733.67 - 5A. Little Rock Fair - 733.67
5A. White Hall - 711.00 - 5A. White Hall - 711.00
5A. Nettleton - 707.00 - 5A. Nettleton - 707.00
5A. Watson Chapel - 682.67 - 5A. Watson Chapel - 682.67
5A. Paragould - 669.33 - 5A. Paragould - 669.33
5A. Magnolia - 668.00 - 5A. Magnolia - 668.00
5A. Batesville - 660.67 - 5A. Batesville - 660.67
5A. Little Rock McClellan - 659.67 - 5A. Little Rock McClellan - 659.67
5A. Wynne - 623.67 - 5A. Wynne - 623.67
5A. Valley View - 603.00 - 5A. Valley View - 603.00
5A. Harrison - 602.00 - 5A. Harrison - 602.00
5A. Clarksville - 587.33 - 5A. Clarksville - 587.33
5A. Forrest City - 586.67 - 5A. Forrest City - 586.67
5A. Farmington - 550.67 - 5A. Farmington - 550.67
5A. Hope - 543.67 - 5A. Hope - 543.33
5A. Camden Fairview - 542.67 - 5A. Camden Fairview - 542.67
5A. Morrilton - 520.67 - 5A. Morrilton - 520.67
5A. Huntsville - 519.00 - 5A. Huntsville - 519.00
5A. De Queen - 511.67 - 5A. De Queen - 511.67
5A. Blytheville - 506.33 - 5A. Blytheville - 506.33
5A. Little Rock Christian - 410.00 - 5A. Little Rock Christian - 405.33
5A. Pulaski Academy - 301.00 - 5A. Pualski Academy - 310.67


4A. Little Rock Mills - 497.333 - Football 1
4A. Monticello - 495.333 - Football 2
4A. Berryville - 486.667 - Football 3
4A. Prairie Grove - 469.000 - Football 4
4A. Gravette - 464.000 - Football 5
4A. Pea Ridge - 456.000??? - Football 6
4A. Brookland - 453.333 - Football 7
4A. Hamburg - 451.667 - Football 8
4A. Pocahontas - 446.333 - Football 9
4A. Dardanelle - 440.333 - Football 10
4A. Jonesboro Westside - 429.333 - Football 11
4A. Robinson - 425.333 - Football 12
4A. Lonoke - 424.000 - Football 13
4A. Malvern - 423.333 - Football 14
4A. Nashville - 418.333 - Football 15
4A. Arkadelphia - 416.000 - Football 16
4A. Bauxite - 412.667 - Football 17
4A. Ozark - 408.000 - Football 18
4A. Heber Springs - 406.667 - Football 19
4A. Mena - 391.000 - Football 20
4A. Batesville Southside - 390.667 - Football 21
4A. Pottsville - 387.000 - Football 22
4A. Crossett - 387.000 - Football 23
4A. eStem - 381.000 - Basketball 1
4A. Stuttgart - 375.000 - Football 24
4A. Star City - 365.667 - Football 25
4A. Highland - 364.667 - Football 26
4A. Warren - 360.667 - Football 27
4A. Gentry - 351.667 - Football 28
4A. Dover - 347.333 - Football 29
4A. Trumann - 345.667 - Football 30
4A. Waldron - 343.667 - Football 31
4A. Fountain Lake - 341.667 - Football 32
4A. West Helena Central - 339.000 - Football 33
4A. Dumas - 334.333 - Football 34
4A. Ashdown - 326.000 - Football 35
4A. Bald Knob - 323.667 - Football 36
4A. Gosnell - 318.000 - Football 37
4A. DeWitt - 308.000 - Football 38
4A. Riverview - 304.333 - Football 39
4A. Lincoln - 304.333 - Football 40
4A. Elkins - 304.333 - Football 41
4A. Rivercrest - 300.000 - Football 42
4A. Cave City - 296.000 - Football 43
4A. Green Forest - 295.000 - Football 44
4A. Subiaco Academy - 242.667 - Football 45
4A. Shiloh Christian - 237.000 - Football 46
4A. Central Arkansas Christian - 204.667 - Football 47
4A. Baptist Prep - 199.000 - Football 48


3A. Haskell Harmony Grove - 293.667 - Football 1
3A. Smackover - 290.000??? - Football 2
3A. Booneville - 290.000 - Football 3
3A. Clinton - 288.667 - Football 4
3A. Harrisburg - 288.000 - Football 5
3A. Lamar - 285.667 - Football 6
3A. Mayflower - 283.000 - Football 7
3A. Genoa Central - 281.333 - Football 8
3A. Bergman - 280.667 - Basketball 1
3A. Pine Bluff Dollarway - 279.333 - Football 9
3A. West Fork - 271.667 - Football 10
3A. Mountain View - 269.333 - Football 11
3A. Paris - 267.000 - Football 12
3A. Lisa Academy - 267.000 - Basketball 2
3A. Osceola - 265.667 - Football 13
3A. Newport - 258.000 - Football 14
3A. Jacksonville Lighthouse - 254.500 - Basketball 3
3A. Manila - 249.667 - Football 15
3A. Fouke - 248.667 - Football 16
3A. McGehee - 247.333 - Football 17
3A. Drew Central - 243.000 - Football 18
3A. Perryville - 241.667 - Football 19
3A. Glen Rose - 241.000 - Football 20
3A. Bismarck - 238.667 - Football 21
3A. Corning - 231.333 - Football 22
3A. Atkins - 228.000 - Football 23
3A. Piggott - 223.667 - Football 24
3A. Centerpoint - 223.667 - Football 25
3A. Walnut Ridge - 221.333 - Football 26
3A. Cedarville - 219.667 - Football 27
3A. Cedar Ridge - 218.667 - Football 28
3A. Lake Village - 217.333 - Football 29
3A. Prescott - 216.000 - Football 30
3A. Valley Springs - 213.000 - Basketball 4
3A. Greenland - 212.667 - Football 31
3A. Rose Bud - 212.333 - Football 32
3A. Jessieville - 212.333 - Football 33
3A. Hoxie - 212.000 - Football 34
3A. Charleston - 211.000 - Football 35
3A. Junction City - 208.000??? - Football 36
3A. Marshall - 207.333 - Football 37
3A. Palestine-Wheatley - 207.000 - Football 38
3A. Rison - 206.333 - Football 39
3A. Two Rivers - 205.667 - Football 40
3A. Mansfield - 205.667 - Football 41
3A. Tuckerman - 204.667 - Basketball 5
3A. Cossatot River - 203.000 - Basketball 6
3A. KIPP: Delta - 202.000 - Basketball 7
3A. Camden Harmony Grove - 201.000 - Football 42
3A. Danville - 201.000 - Football 43
3A. Sloan-Hendrix - 195.333 - Basketball 8
3A. Barton - 194.333 - Football 44
3A. Melbourne - 193.667 - Football 45
3A. Riverside - 193.667 - Basketball 9
3A. Horatio - 190.333 - Football 46
3A. Episcopal Collegiate - 167.667 - Football 47
3A. Harding Academy - 166.000 - Football 48


2A. Yellville-Summit - 189.667 - Football 1
2A. Marianna Lee - 189.333 - Football 2
2A. Haas Hall - 187.667
2A. Marmaduke - 183.667
2A. Pangburn - 182.333
2A. Lavaca - 181.333 - Football 3
2A. England - 180.667 - Football 4
2A. Salem - 179.333 - Football 5
2A. Parkers Chapel - 178.667 - Football 6
2A. Arkansas Arts Academy - 178.000
2A. Buffalo Island Central - 176.333
2A. East Poinsett County - 175.333 - Football 7
2A. Gurdon - 174.000 - Football 8
2A. Fordyce - 173.000 - Football 9
2A. Flippin - 172.000
2A. Magnet Cove - 171.333 - Football 10
2A. Mountainburg - 169.000 - Football 11
2A. Quitman - 168.000 - Football 12
2A. White County Central - 166.333
2A. Carlisle - 165.667 - Football 13
2A. Earle - 162.333 - Football 14
2A. Hackett - 156.000 - Football 15
2A. Hazen - 154.333 - Football 16
2A. Haas Hall Bentonville - 154.000
2A. Eureka Springs - 153.667
2A. Johnson County Westside - 151.667 - Football 17
2A. Murfreesboro - 151.667 - Football 18
2A. Hector - 151.333 - Football 19
2A. Poyen - 150.333 - Football 20
2A. Cotter - 148.333
2A. Bigelow - 148.000 - Football 21
2A. McCrory - 145.000 - Football 22
2A. Lafayette County - 144.333 - Football 23
2A. Spring Hill - 143.667 - Football 24
2A. Cross County - 143.000 - Football 25
2A. Cutter Morning Star - 141.667 - Football 26
2A. Rector - 135.000 - Football 27
2A. Marked Tree - 134.000 - Football 28
2A. South Side Bee Branch - 133.000
2A. Magazine - 132.667 - Football 29
2A. Des Arc - 131.667 - Football 30
2A. Maumelle Charter - 131.000
2A. Bay - 127.667
2A. Hampton - 127.000 - Football 31
2A. Dierks - 127.000 - Football 32
2A. Woodlawn - 126.333 - Football 33
2A. Conway Christian - 93.667 - Football 34
2A. St. Joseph - 85.333

2A/1A. Clarendon - 126.000 - Football 35
2A/1A. Bearden - 126.000 - Football 36
2A/1A. Mount Ida - 121.667 - Football 37
2A/1A. Foreman - 120.333 - Football 38
1A. Nemo Vista - 119.667
1A. Acorn - 119.333
2A/1A. Decatur - 118.667 - Football 39
2A/1A. Mountain Pine - 118.000 - Football 40
1A. Caddo Hills - 118.000
1A. Jasper - 117.333
1A. Ouachita - 117.000
1A. County Line - 114.333
2A/1A. Brinkley - 114.333 - Football 41
1A. Mount Vernon-Enola - 113.333
1A. Izard County - 113.000
1A. Mammoth Spring - 112.333
1A. Alpena - 112.333
1A. Norfork - 111.667
1A. Blevins - 110.333
2A/1A. Midland - 110.000 - Football 42
1A. Armorel - 108.667
1A. West Side, GF - 108.000
1A. Maynard - 105.333
2A/1A. Western Yell County - 102.667 - Football 43
1A. Nevada - 102.000
1A. Concord - 102.000
2A/1A. KIPP: Blytheville - 100.667 - Football 44
1A. Lisa Academy - NLR - 99.667
1A. Scranton - 99.000
1A. Hillcrest - 98.333
1A. Shirley - 97.000
1A. Calico Rock - 95.333
1A. Bradford - 94.333
1A. Viola - 92.000
1A. Omaha - 92.000
1A. Guy-Perkins - 90.333
2A/1A. Mineral Springs - 89.333 - Football 45
2A/1A. Marvell-Elaine - 88.333 - Football 46
1A. Kirby - 88.333
2A/1A. Augusta - 87.667 - Football 47
1A. Wonderview - 87.333
1A. Lead Hill - 87.333
2A/1A. Hermitage - 87.333 - Football 48
1A. Taylor - 79.667
1A. Bradley - 77.000
1A. Dermott - 76.667
2A/1A. Strong - 75.667 - Football 49
1A. Crowleys Ridge Academy - 74.333
1A. Hartford - 72.000
1A. Mulberry - 70.000
1A. Western Grove - 68.333
1A. Abundant Life - 62.667
1A. Emerson - 62.000
1A. Trinity Christian - 60.000
1A. Kingston - 57.000
1A. St. Paul - 56.667
1A. Sacred Heart - 54.667
1A. Deer - 54.000
1A. Oden - 53.667
1A. Northwest Arkansas Classical Academy - 51.333
1A. Ridgefield - 50.667
1A. St. Joe - 48.667
1A. Rural Special - 48.667
1A. Bruno-Pyatt - 48.000
1A. Timbo - 45.667
1A. Oark - 45.333
1A. Umpire - 41.333
1A. Sparkman - 31.000
1A. Mount Judea - 29.333
1A. Arkansas School for the Blind - 18.000
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on October 30, 2016, 01:23:48 am
Questions from me:

For Bentonville and Bentonville West...I used the ADMs of Bentonville for the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 school years and halved them for BW West...but do I need to use those same half ADMs for Bentonville for those years?

For Jacksonville, I wasn't exactly sure what to do for the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 ADMs. I used the North Pulaski and Jacksonville combined ADMs for those two years, but not sure I should have done that.

Do the Pea Ridge Manufacturing and Business school students play for Pea Ridge in athletics and if so, are those numbers counted against Pea Ridge? I went ahead and counted them for Pea Ridge, but I may be wrong here.

Should I use Norphlet + Smackover's ADMs for the 2014-2015 school year? This one is big because it could effect the classifications.

On the Junction City matter, can someone explain where their extra numbers come from? From what I can tell it comes for a Northeaster Claiborne Charter school in Louisiana? If you just go by their ADMs, then Junction City is 2A still, but that was true for last cycle, too. I'm not sure where the AAA gets the extra numbers for Junction City so I just added about 35 "students" to their ADM average since that's what happened last cycle.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on October 30, 2016, 01:24:23 am
Saved
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: x14113 on October 30, 2016, 01:44:46 am
Duuude, this looks eerily similar to what I've been working on.

Did you hack my phone and steal my spreadsheets? :P
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: beach bum on October 30, 2016, 08:42:48 am
Top notch work! We really all have to keep an eye on.... let's say the top 5 and bottom 5 of each of those and see if they swing up or down. There could be some really interesting ones for sure!
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on October 30, 2016, 10:09:12 am
Quote from: x14113 on October 30, 2016, 01:44:46 am
Duuude, this looks eerily similar to what I've been working on.

Did you hack my phone and steal my spreadsheets? :P

Ha, no. Just doing the same thing I did last cycle.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on October 30, 2016, 12:35:26 pm
Quote from: beach bum on October 30, 2016, 08:42:48 am
Top notch work! We really all have to keep an eye on.... let's say the top 5 and bottom 5 of each of those and see if they swing up or down. There could be some really interesting ones for sure!

Sylvan Hills looks like they will be 6A for sure. Texarkana looks like they could very well drop down to 5A.

Huntsville looks like they will be jumping back up to 5A, pushing Little Rock Mills to 4A.

Green Forest, Rivercrest, and Elkins could jump up to 4A...pushing Booneville, Harrisburg, and Dollarway to 3A.

Danville and Sloan-Hendrix jumping up to 3A....Yellville dropping to 2A.

Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: Wonderdog on October 30, 2016, 12:47:59 pm
Great work Alamtrackster. Thanks for posting this. I enjoy keeping up with the reclassification and how things might change. Texarkana to 5A would be very interesting, as well as Green Forrest and Elkins moving to 4A. the 1-3A conference has some extensive travel as it is for some conference games, it will be interesting to see if it gets even worse with the loss of GF, YS and Elkins
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: beach bum on October 30, 2016, 01:29:13 pm
The 1-4A in this format will be Lincoln, Prairie Grove, Shiloh Christian, Gentry, Gravette, Pea Ridge, Berryville, and Green Forest.

-Poor Green Forest will get pummeled in 4A taking Huntsville's spot as they move to 5A

-Elkins will be super close logistically to teams like Shiloh Christian, Prairie Grove, and Lincoln and would make sense in the 1-4A but they will just slide into West Fork's spot in the 4-4A as West Fork drops to 3A again. Elkins is a better fit in the 1-4A but they will not split Berryville and Green Forest up to do so.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: beach bum on October 30, 2016, 01:37:29 pm
Also, if Booneville does indeed go back to 3A with the young group they have LOOK OUT 3A!
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: WPWells on October 30, 2016, 03:23:45 pm
Do you have spreadsheets to accompany this work? I'd love to see them
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: ricepig on October 30, 2016, 04:21:29 pm
I guess in 6A that PB would slide back to the West, and Sylvan Hills would come to the East?? Always travel problems with conferences spread out across the state.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: Wonderdog on October 30, 2016, 04:21:50 pm
Based off of your numbers I would think something like this would be best, even though a few will always get the short end of the stick.

7A West
Bentonville
Bentonville West
Rogers
Rogers Heritage
Springdale
Springdale Har-Ber
Fayetteville
Van Buren


7A Central
Fort Smith Northside
Fort Smith Southside
North Little Rock
Cabot
Little Rock Central
Little Rock Catholic
Conway
Bryant


6A East
Sylvan Hills
Pine Bluff
Marion
West Memphis
Jonesboro
Mountain Home
Searcy
Jacksonville


6A West
Little Rock Hall
Greenwood
Benton
El Dorado
Siloam Springs
Sheridan
Lake Hamilton
Russellville






5A Central
Maumelle
White Hall
Pulaski Academy
Little Rock Christian
Little Rock Parkview
Beebe
Little Rock McClellan
JA Fair


5A East
Batesville
Blytheville
Wynne
Forrest City
Nettelton
Valley View
Greene County Tech
Paragould


5A South
Texarkana
Watson Chapel
Hot Springs
Hot Springs Lakeside
Magnolia
De Queen
Camden Fairview
Hope


5A West
Huntsville
Farmington
Alma
Harrison
Clarksville
Morrilton
Greenbrier
Vilonia






1-4A
Green Forest
Prairie Grove
Pea Ridge
Shiloh Christian
Berryville
Gravette
Gentry
Lincoln


2-4A
Stuttgart
Batesville Southside
Heber Springs
Lonoke
Riverview
Bald Knob
West Helena
Baptist Prep


3-4A
Gosnell
Brookland
Jonesboro Westside
Rivercrest
Pocahontas
Highland
Cave City
Trumann


4-4A
Elkins
Central Arkansas Christian
Ozark
Dover
Pottsville
Dardanelle
Waldron
Subiaco Academy




7-4A
Ashdown
Arkadelphia
Malvern
Nashville
Bauxite
Fountain Lake
Mena
Joe T. Robinson


8-4A
Crossett
Star City
Hamburg
Dumas
Monticello
Warren
Little Rock Mills
Dewitt





1-3A
Greenland
West Fork
Cedarville
Marshall
Clinton
Melbourne
Mountain View
Lamar

2-3A
Barton
Palestine-Wheatley
Cedar Ridge
Rose Bud
Haskell Harmony Grove
Harding Academy
Mayflower
Episcopal Collegiate


3-3A
Piggott
Corning
Manila
Osceola
Hoxie
Walnut Ridge
Newport
Harrisburg


4-3A
Charleston
Atkins
Booneville
Two Rivers
Mansfield
Danville
Paris
Perryville






5-3A
Fouke
Genoa Central
Prescott
Bismarck
Glen Rose
Jessieville
Centerpoint
Horatio


6-3A
Rison
McGehee
Smackover
Lake Village
Camden Harmony Grove
Dollarway
Junction City
Drew Central



3-2A
Cross County
Salem
Rector
East Poinsett County
Earle
Midland
Marked Tree
KIPP: Blytheville


4-2A
Decatur
Yellville-Summit
Mountainburg
Johnson County Westside
J. D. Leftwich
Western Yell County
Lavaca
Hackett


5-2A
England
Hector
Quitman
Cutter Morning Star
Magnet Cove
Conway Christian
Poyen
Bigelow


6-2A
Marianna
Clarendon
Marvell-Elaine
Brinkley
Hazen
Carlisle
Des Arc
Augusta
McCrory


7-2A
Gurdon
Spring Hill
Dierks
Foreman
Mount Ida
Mountain Pine
Murfreesboro
Mineral Springs


8-2A
Strong
Parkers Chapel
Hermitage
Hampton
Bearden
Woodlawn
Fordyce
Lafayette County
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on October 30, 2016, 06:10:43 pm
Great stuff, Wonderdog +1. I'll have to look at it more closely later and see if I think the same as you.

Fred Bird, I don't have a formal spreadsheet right now, but I am going to start putting one together and I'll share it. It will be a good way to double check my work.

I'm hoping x14113 still shares his numbers so we can cross check each other.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: sevenof400 on October 30, 2016, 06:49:20 pm
Quote from: Almatrackster on October 30, 2016, 12:35:26 pm
Huntsville looks like they will be jumping back up to 5A, pushing Little Rock Mills to 4A.

That development will not be welcome in Huntsville.  Many folks there said there were a much better fit in / at 4A for travel purposes.  The previous move to 5A was not a happy one so they said.   
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: sevenof400 on October 30, 2016, 06:52:23 pm
On a side note, let's hope the blended conference arrangement ends after this year. 
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: ricepig on October 30, 2016, 06:54:29 pm
Quote from: sevenof400 on October 30, 2016, 06:52:23 pm
On a side note, let's hope the blended conference arrangement ends after this year.

I figure it will go for the full cycle.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: beach bum on October 30, 2016, 07:25:08 pm
Quote from: sevenof400 on October 30, 2016, 06:52:23 pm
On a side note, let's hope the blended conference arrangement ends after this year.

This....please!
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: beach bum on October 30, 2016, 07:27:35 pm
Quote from: sevenof400 on October 30, 2016, 06:49:20 pm
That development will not be welcome in Huntsville.  Many folks there said there were a much better fit in / at 4A for travel purposes.  The previous move to 5A was not a happy one so they said.

The stuff I saw on social media was hilarious when Madison County got its first stop light about 6 months ago I think? You would have thought there was a paranoia reigning through Huntsville that the city slickers were coming to invade! But yes, they are not suited for 5A football whatsoever. In basketball, they add to an already deep 5A West.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: x14113 on October 30, 2016, 08:56:20 pm
Quote from: sevenof400 on October 30, 2016, 06:49:20 pm
That development will not be welcome in Huntsville.  Many folks there said there were a much better fit in / at 4A for travel purposes.  The previous move to 5A was not a happy one so they said.

Maybe they should send their kids elsewhere?

Like, St, Paul? That's still in district.

And hey, maybe they could get some Saints football back up and rolling again while they're at it? They might not do too bad in the 2A-4...
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: beach bum on October 30, 2016, 09:13:20 pm
Quote from: x14113 on October 30, 2016, 08:56:20 pm
Maybe they should send their kids elsewhere?

Like, St, Paul? That's still in district.

And hey, maybe they could get some Saints football back up and rolling again while they're at it? They might not do too bad in the 2A-4...

That would be a funny game between them and Mountainburg.... Not very far as the crow flies but would take forever to travel around the White Rock area. Would either have to go majorly north or south to get around those mountains! Nothing but dirt roads once you get off 16 or 23.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: x14113 on October 30, 2016, 09:28:45 pm
Quote from: Almatrackster on October 30, 2016, 06:10:43 pm
I'm hoping x14113 still shares his numbers so we can cross check each other.

I'll tell you right now that most of the numbers are identical, so I'll just share the notable differences as I compare the lists.

For now, I'll opine on your questions:

Quote from: Almatrackster on October 30, 2016, 01:23:48 am
For Bentonville and Bentonville West...I used the ADMs of Bentonville for the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 school years and halved them for BW West...but do I need to use those same half ADMs for Bentonville for those years?

Yes. That looks to be standard AAA procedure regarding such circumstances.

Quote from: Almatrackster on October 30, 2016, 01:23:48 am
For Jacksonville, I wasn't exactly sure what to do for the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 ADMs. I used the North Pulaski and Jacksonville combined ADMs for those two years, but not sure I should have done that.

Since they have combined into one school, so will their ADMs. Again, standard procedure.

Quote from: Almatrackster on October 30, 2016, 01:23:48 am
Do the Pea Ridge Manufacturing and Business school students play for Pea Ridge in athletics and if so, are those numbers counted against Pea Ridge? I went ahead and counted them for Pea Ridge, but I may be wrong here.

Seeing how A) their #s for the grade affected are similar between the two, and B) they seem to be roughly half of PRHS's lower two grades, I suspect that MB is an extension of the HS in practice, and its #s should therefore count.

There is precedence for such a situation, as both Ozark and Hot Springs include #'s from outside facilities.

Quote from: Almatrackster on October 30, 2016, 01:23:48 am
Should I use Norphlet + Smackover's ADMs for the 2014-2015 school year? This one is big because it could effect the classifications.

Yes, you should. Same deal as with Jax-NP.

Quote from: Almatrackster on October 30, 2016, 01:23:48 am
On the Junction City matter, can someone explain where their extra numbers come from? From what I can tell it comes for a Northeaster Claiborne Charter school in Louisiana? If you just go by their ADMs, then Junction City is 2A still, but that was true for last cycle, too. I'm not sure where the AAA gets the extra numbers for Junction City so I just added about 35 "students" to their ADM average since that's what happened last cycle.

This is a strange one. It's well known that JC enrolls LA kids, but said kids are never reported to ADE. Something tells me that there is extra correspondence between JC and the AAA that makes sure the LA kids do get counted for accurate classing.

As for private schools...this drives me nuts. The ANSAA does not seem to release detailed enrollment info to the public, even though they send it to the AAA for their schools to be classed. This is the one thing that most limits the reliability of our predictions, because you never know how stable a private school's enrollment actually is. Take CAC, for instance: They were in 5A until 2012, yet they are now very close to dropping to 3A.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: Brian G on October 30, 2016, 09:45:23 pm
A little info.

Springdale has a 3rd high school known as "School of Innovation" that doesn't have full blown athletics.  I'm unsure how they count it.  I expect most of the kids that want top lay sports are participating at Old Springdale and not HB.

Additionally, the local Catholic diocese is fundraising to offer a full blown Catholic high school in NWA.  Currently, there are k-8th ones in Fay and Benton Co. I expect that by 2019.

Bentonville has announced plans for a 3rd high school by 2025.  I suspect it will be a full blown school with all athletics.

Haas Hall Academy has plans to open a 3rd and 4th school in Rogers and Springdale to go along with the ones in Fay and Bentonville.  The one in Fay has been competing in some sports(tennis, hoops, track) for a few years.  These are charter schools that are making a mark with their academics.

The New School(real name) is located in north Fayetteville and has been around 20 years.  But recently they have announced plans to expand up through 12th grade.  They have already hired an AD.  I expect them to field teams in every sport besides football. I think they are 2 years from expansion.

All that's to say, NWA will be a revolving door.  Part of the reason Fayetteville doesn't really grow is they are landlocked but now they are faced with two (Haas, New School) full blown high schools within their borders.  Seemingly we hear of a new charter/private school of some nature every 6 months.

There are going to be a lot of moving parts as these schools open.

You can actually envision a day when FHS isn't even in the 7A-West!  ::)

There will be a need for some out of the box thinking and flexibility with conference sizes across the board.  Obviously each school can create a ripple effect.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: x14113 on October 30, 2016, 10:48:05 pm
Now, the contrasts...

I highly suspect they may be due to nuances regarding data collection, but we'll cross that bridge eventually.

To make it easier for app users to read, I will not set up a table.


Cabot
AT: 2292.67
x14: 2416.67

NLR
AT: 1931.33
x14: 1960

Jonesboro
AT: 1241.67
x14: 1258.33

West Memphis
AT: 1131.33
x14: 1184.33

Greenwood
AT: 892.67
x14: 893.33

Texarkana
AT: 825.67
x14: 887

Hot Springs
AT: 734.67
x14: 753

Beebe
AT: 731.67
x14: 748.33

Nettleton
AT: 706.67
x14: 707

Batesville
AT: 659
x14: 660.67

LR McClellan
AT: 635
x14: 659.87

Hope
AT: 542.67
x14: 543.67

Jonesboro Westside
AT: 429.33
x14: 429

Bauxite
AT: 388.67
x14: 412.67

Southside BV
AT: 390.67
x14: 391

Pottsville
AT: 387
x14: 386.33

Gosnell
AT: 318
x14: 318.33

Lafayette Co.
AT: 141.67
x14: 144.33

Mt. Ida
AT: 121.67
x14: 122
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on October 30, 2016, 11:48:27 pm
Awesome, thanks x14. I'll cross check and double check mine tomorrow to see if I can see where my mistakes might be and then see if we can come to a common ground.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on October 31, 2016, 10:48:04 pm
Quote from: x14113 on October 30, 2016, 10:48:05 pm
Now, the contrasts...

I highly suspect they may be due to nuances regarding data collection, but we'll cross that bridge eventually.

To make it easier for app users to read, I will not set up a table.

Jonesboro
AT: 1241.67
x14: 1258.33

Texarkana
AT: 825.67
x14: 887

Jonesboro Westside
AT: 429.33
x14: 429

Southside BV
AT: 390.67
x14: 391

Pottsville
AT: 387
x14: 386.33

Gosnell
AT: 318
x14: 318.33

Mt. Ida
AT: 121.67
x14: 122

I will remove the schools off this list once I can match up with x14.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on November 01, 2016, 06:50:39 pm
Ok, x14, I cross checked all the schools you listed and was able to come to the common ground for most of them and changed that, but the ones I left above, I was not able to. Jonesboro and Texarkana probably take more of an explanation, but the rest, the differences are so small, that I wonder if perhaps you could have made a mistake? (I know that's a bit presumptuous), but I've double checked my numbers on those and can't get what you get.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: x14113 on November 01, 2016, 10:07:02 pm
No worries--I've been wanting to double-check my end in greater detail, so I'll get on it ASAP.

Methodology disclosure: For districts that have only one HS that plays sports, I have counted the numbers applicable for the entire district, the logic being that a student in a "specialty campus" would have to play through said school anyway. I'm currently inspecting the schools within both Jonesboro and Texarkana to see if this is a factor with our respective counts.

As for the smaller contrasts, we're talking a difference of at most two students between them, so a margin of error is very likely. Again, I'll double-check my math to see if I can resolve what's left.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: ricepig on November 02, 2016, 07:19:17 am
Quote from: x14113 on November 01, 2016, 10:07:02 pm
No worries--I've been wanting to double-check my end in greater detail, so I'll get on it ASAP.

Methodology disclosure: For districts that have only one HS that plays sports, I have counted the numbers applicable for the entire district, the logic being that a student in a "specialty campus" would have to play through said school anyway. I'm currently inspecting the schools within both Jonesboro and Texarkana to see if this is a factor with our respective counts.

As for the smaller contrasts, we're talking a difference of at most two students between them, so a margin of error is very likely. Again, I'll double-check my math to see if I can resolve what's left.

What "specialty campus" does Jonesboro have? There's the NEA Career and Tech Center on the same campus, but they're still students from their home district.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: OLDSCHOOL82 on December 06, 2016, 10:36:44 pm
.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: OB11 on December 07, 2016, 09:57:03 am
Quote from: ricepig on November 02, 2016, 07:19:17 am
What "specialty campus" does Jonesboro have? There's the NEA Career and Tech Center on the same campus, but they're still students from their home district.

Maybe he's talking about Success?  It's operated through Jonesboro but other districts can send students there as well.  I don't think the enrollment there goes into classification numbers.  Or I wouldn't think so anyway.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: New Dawg on December 07, 2016, 10:05:26 am
All of the work is pretty impressive.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: 1-Adam-12 on December 07, 2016, 05:57:02 pm
Fort Smith is also getting a Catholic high school.  It's slated to open in 2018 with just 10th graders and be a full 10-12 high school by 2020.  Should not affect NS/SS enrollment much, just thought I'd throw that out there.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: HorseFeathers on December 07, 2016, 06:16:47 pm
Quote from: 1-Adam-12 on December 07, 2016, 05:57:02 pm
Fort Smith is also getting a Catholic high school.  It's slated to open in 2018 with just 10th graders and be a full 10-12 high school by 2020.  Should not affect NS/SS enrollment much, just thought I'd throw that out there.

How's it going to affect subiaco?
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: 1-Adam-12 on December 07, 2016, 08:10:06 pm
I don't think they get a lot from the immediate FS area.  Though, if some do go there and then later decide to attend FS Catholic, it could send the Trojans packing to 3A.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: bleudog on December 07, 2016, 08:23:22 pm
Quote from: Almatrackster on October 30, 2016, 01:23:48 am
Questions from me:

On the Junction City matter, can someone explain where their extra numbers come from? From what I can tell it comes for a Northeaster Claiborne Charter school in Louisiana? If you just go by their ADMs, then Junction City is 2A still, but that was true for last cycle, too. I'm not sure where the AAA gets the extra numbers for Junction City so I just added about 35 "students" to their ADM average since that's what happened last cycle.

Prior to the 2014-2015 school year, the data listed on the ADE website was only the in-state students total.  The Louisiana kids in JC numbers have always been submitted to ADE but under a different code (as out-of-state students) as they do not quality for Arkansas funding.  This separate out-of-state total has always been available to AAA and would be used to move JC up in athletic classification if warranted by the combined totals of the two groups.

Beginning with the 2014-2015 school year, the in-state and out-of-state totals were combined on the ADE site reports.  Funding is still only based on in-state students but apparently the software was patched to have the publicly available number reflect the actual number of total students enrolled.

My personal opinion is, for the most recent cycle, the AAA continued to merge the two databases when for two of the three years that was no longer necessary.  This resulted in the out-of-state students being counted twice in those two years.

JC 2012-2013 (https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/Schools/EnrollmentByGrade.aspx?year=23&search=junction%20city&pagesize=10)

JC 2013-2014 (https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/Schools/EnrollmentByGrade.aspx?year=24&search=junction%20city&pagesize=10)

JC 2014-2015 (https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/Schools/EnrollmentByGrade.aspx?year=25&search=junction%20city&pagesize=10)

JC 2015-2016 (https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/Schools/EnrollmentByGrade.aspx?year=26&search=junction%20city&pagesize=10)

JC 2016-2017 (https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/Schools/EnrollmentByGrade.aspx?year=27&search=junction%20city&pagesize=10)

Here are the TOTAL high school (7th-12th) numbers as presented in the school's report to the public:

(http://i742.photobucket.com/albums/xx68/bleudog71730/Junction%20City%20enrollent_zps9z2gqb6s.jpg) (http://s742.photobucket.com/user/bleudog71730/media/Junction%20City%20enrollent_zps9z2gqb6s.jpg.html)
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: wildcat_x-mgr on December 09, 2016, 10:09:16 pm
 :o :o :o Rison returning to 3A while Fordyce drops all the way to 2A? It's a world gone mad! MAD, I tell you!

Seriously though, how sure is all this? Is what's shown here likely to be the real deal? Not doubting your work, just genuinely asking.

That said, I'm VERY interested to see Rison vs. Dollarway when the time comes! What a fun match-up that could be!
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: Grizzlyfan on December 12, 2016, 09:40:36 am
Do you foresee any splits in the top 8 7A teams in the near future?
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: bigchief72455 on December 12, 2016, 11:29:05 am
If Brookland keeps seeing the trend of numbers they are having they will soon be a 5A school. Blytheville may become a 4A school. With those two moves happening the 3-4A may get interesting indeed.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on December 15, 2016, 11:45:36 am
Quote from: wildcat_x-mgr on December 09, 2016, 10:09:16 pm
:o :o :o Rison returning to 3A while Fordyce drops all the way to 2A? It's a world gone mad! MAD, I tell you!

Seriously though, how sure is all this? Is what's shown here likely to be the real deal? Not doubting your work, just genuinely asking.

That said, I'm VERY interested to see Rison vs. Dollarway when the time comes! What a fun match-up that could be!

I did this for the last cycle and the upper classifications were dead on. Some of the lower classifications weren't exact but most big changes were reflected. With x1 cross checking and me adjusting some of my calculation methods, I feel confident that most of this will be correct.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: wildcat_x-mgr on December 18, 2016, 07:59:49 am
Quote from: Almatrackster on December 15, 2016, 11:45:36 am
I did this for the last cycle and the upper classifications were dead on. Some of the lower classifications weren't exact but most big changes were reflected. With x1 cross checking and me adjusting some of my calculation methods, I feel confident that most of this will be correct.

Wow, so we actually could end up playing Dollarway? Didn't expect to see that anytime soon! Thanks, dude.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: Lions84 on December 21, 2016, 05:32:28 pm
I predict several of us will be mad when it all said and done.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: beach bum on December 21, 2016, 06:11:40 pm
One thing to look for is how will the AAA splits the 1-3A and 4-3A next cycle? It did not make a whole lot of sense in the fact that Greenland and Elkins were driving past Lamar and some other schools in the 4-3A to get to schools like Clinton and Melbourne. I think they will do it one of two ways this time. I am basing this off of the numbers you have presented above for the 3A..... If Yellville Summit stays 3A barely then I have one option. If they go 2A barely then I have another option that makes sense listed in OPTION 1 below. Green Forest is listed as the smallest 4A public school in this list so they could also replace Yellville Summit or be put in the list if they stay 3A in Yellville's place. This might be one of the most interesting questions about conferences for football no matter the classification. A lot of the 1-3A/4-3A formation will do with how spot on the numbers are cause a lot of these schools in the NWA and River Valley area like Green Forest/Elkins/Booneville/West Fork could flex between 3A or 4A and schools like Yellville Summitt/Danvile flex between 2A or 3A cause those schools are very close at the top or bottom of their classifications numbers. The biggest question overall obviously is if they do the combined conferences or not in the other sports?

OPTION 1:

1-3A: Greenland, West Fork, Cedarville, Mansfield, Charleston, Booneville, Lamar, Paris (TALK ABOUT LOADED FOR A 3A CONFERENCE)

4-3A:Marshall, Clinton, Mountain View, Two Rivers, Danville, Perryville, Atkins, Melbourne OR Mayflower (Either team could join and makes sense, if Melbourne joins here then Mayflower goes to the 2-3A, If Mayflower joins then Melbourne goes to the 3-3A)

OPTION 2 (and more along the line of what the AAA has been doing the last two cycles, AND this is if Yellville Summit stays 3A instead of being the largest 2A like they are projected ):

1-3A:West Fork, Cedarville, Greenland, Yellville Summit, Clinton, Mountain View, Melbourne, Marshall

4-3A:Mansfield, Charleston, Booneville, Danville, Two Rivers, Paris, Lamar, Perryville (Still very strong league)


Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: WillC on January 27, 2017, 09:00:21 am
Quote from: Grizzlyfan on December 12, 2016, 09:40:36 am
Do you foresee any splits in the top 8 7A teams in the near future?

From what I hear, Fayetteville is at least pretty adamant about not splitting. Rogers has this New Tech high that does not sponsor athletics (I believe athletes still play with Rogers and Heritage). I remember seeing a sign in the Chaffee Crossing area that said "Future Home of the Next Fort Smith High School." Not sure if that's going tthough or not. I have no idea about the Little Rock area.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: HorseFeathers on January 27, 2017, 07:35:48 pm
Quote from: beach bum on December 21, 2016, 06:11:40 pm
One thing to look for is how will the AAA splits the 1-3A and 4-3A next cycle? It did not make a whole lot of sense in the fact that Greenland and Elkins were driving past Lamar and some other schools in the 4-3A to get to schools like Clinton and Melbourne. I think they will do it one of two ways this time. I am basing this off of the numbers you have presented above for the 3A..... If Yellville Summit stays 3A barely then I have one option. If they go 2A barely then I have another option that makes sense listed in OPTION 1 below. Green Forest is listed as the smallest 4A public school in this list so they could also replace Yellville Summit or be put in the list if they stay 3A in Yellville's place. This might be one of the most interesting questions about conferences for football no matter the classification. A lot of the 1-3A/4-3A formation will do with how spot on the numbers are cause a lot of these schools in the NWA and River Valley area like Green Forest/Elkins/Booneville/West Fork could flex between 3A or 4A and schools like Yellville Summitt/Danvile flex between 2A or 3A cause those schools are very close at the top or bottom of their classifications numbers. The biggest question overall obviously is if they do the combined conferences or not in the other sports?

OPTION 1:

1-3A: Greenland, West Fork, Cedarville, Mansfield, Charleston, Booneville, Lamar, Paris (TALK ABOUT LOADED FOR A 3A CONFERENCE)

4-3A:Marshall, Clinton, Mountain View, Two Rivers, Danville, Perryville, Atkins, Melbourne OR Mayflower (Either team could join and makes sense, if Melbourne joins here then Mayflower goes to the 2-3A, If Mayflower joins then Melbourne goes to the 3-3A)

OPTION 2 (and more along the line of what the AAA has been doing the last two cycles, AND this is if Yellville Summit stays 3A instead of being the largest 2A like they are projected ):

1-3A:West Fork, Cedarville, Greenland, Yellville Summit, Clinton, Mountain View, Melbourne, Marshall

4-3A:Mansfield, Charleston, Booneville, Danville, Two Rivers, Paris, Lamar, Perryville (Still very strong league)




As an outsider I hope they "fix" the train wreck 1-3a....Melbourne to west fork(read Batesville to Fayetteville for those not familiar) on any night is to far for a conference game...Especially when you drive through and within a stone's throw of most of the 4-3a to get there....
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: Coach Jones on March 06, 2017, 12:27:41 pm
Did you run your ADM on a 3 year average?  Isn't that how it is calculated? 
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: ricepig on March 06, 2017, 12:54:36 pm
Quote from: Coach Jones on March 06, 2017, 12:27:41 pm
Did you run your ADM on a 3 year average?  Isn't that how it is calculated?

It's suppose to be a three year average of your Oct. 1st enrollment of your 9th-11th grades.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: Lions84 on March 14, 2017, 08:53:58 pm
Don't like the 8 team districts in 2A.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on March 15, 2017, 07:54:52 am
Quote from: Coach Jones on March 06, 2017, 12:27:41 pm
Did you run your ADM on a 3 year average?  Isn't that how it is calculated?

Yes, I did.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: MikeDieselâ„¢ on March 25, 2017, 04:30:34 pm
5A. Blytheville - 506.333
5A. Little Rock Christian - 410.000
5A. Pulaski Academy - 301.000


4A. Little Rock Mills - 497.333 - Football 1
4A. Monticello - 495.333 - Football 2

I sure did think Blytheville was going to drop down this time.  We need one of those big schools to split real quick I guess :)
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: GuvHog on March 26, 2017, 12:57:06 pm
It's my understanding that Pulaski Academy has requested to be moved up to 6A and will do so in the next cycle. That would move Greenwood back to 5A.

This would put Greenwood back in the 5A West and Vilonia would then move to the 5A Central in PA's place.

5A CENTRAL
Maumelle
White Hall
Vilonia
LR Christian
LR Parkview
Beebe
LR McClellen
J.A. Fair

5A WEST
Huntsville
Farmington
Alma
Harrison
Clarksville
Morrilton
Greenbrier
Greenwood

5A EAST
Batesville
Blytheville
Wynne
Forrest City
Nettleton
Valley View
Green County Tech
Paragould

5A SOUTH
Texarkana
Watson Chapel
Hot Springs
H.S. Lakeside
Magnolia
De Queen
Camden fairview
Hope
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: ricepig on March 30, 2017, 10:15:35 am
Quote from: GuvHog on March 26, 2017, 12:57:06 pm
It's my understanding that Pulaski Academy has requested to be moved up to 6A and will do so in the next cycle. That would move Greenwood back to 5A.

This would put Greenwood back in the 5A West and Vilonia would then move to the 5A Central in PA's place.

5A CENTRAL
Maumelle
White Hall
Vilonia
LR Christian
LR Parkview
Beebe
LR McClellen
J.A. Fair

5A WEST
Huntsville
Farmington
Alma
Harrison
Clarksville
Morrilton
Greenbrier
Greenwood

5A EAST
Batesville
Blytheville
Wynne
Forrest City
Nettleton
Valley View
Green County Tech
Paragould

5A SOUTH
Texarkana
Watson Chapel
Hot Springs
H.S. Lakeside
Magnolia
De Queen
Camden fairview
Hope

I believe Greenwood would have to agree to the move down, so it's not a certainty. Also, I've not read anything on PA wanting to move up two classes.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: GuvHog on March 30, 2017, 01:59:50 pm
Quote from: ricepig on March 30, 2017, 10:15:35 am
I believe Greenwood would have to agree to the move down, so it's not a certainty. Also, I've not read anything on PA wanting to move up two classes.

PA would only be moving up one class. They have been in 5A for quite some time now. Greenwood is the smallest 6A school so unless the school above them agrees to move down, Greenwood would have no choice BUT to move down if the AAA grants PA's request to move to 6A.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: sevenof400 on March 30, 2017, 02:42:59 pm
Quote from: GuvHog on March 30, 2017, 01:59:50 pm
PA would only be moving up one class. They have been in 5A for quite some time now. Greenwood is the smallest 6A school so unless the school above them agrees to move down, Greenwood would have no choice BUT to move down if the AAA grants PA's request to move to 6A.

I think RicePig is correct -both schools must agree to a move like this - I don't think one can be forced to move down.
However, it is possible a school other than Greenwood might agree to move down.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: Grizzlyfan on March 30, 2017, 03:48:48 pm
Quote from: GuvHog on March 30, 2017, 01:59:50 pm
PA would only be moving up one class. They have been in 5A for quite some time now. Greenwood is the smallest 6A school so unless the school above them agrees to move down, Greenwood would have no choice BUT to move down if the AAA grants PA's request to move to 6A.
If PA petitions to move up why can't Greenwood petition to stay in 6A? 
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: HorseFeathers on March 30, 2017, 04:51:53 pm
Quote from: sevenof400 on March 30, 2017, 02:42:59 pm
I think RicePig is correct -both schools must agree to a move like this - I don't think one can be forced to move down.
However, it is possible a school other than Greenwood might agree to move down.

I think this issue came up both times Shiloh Christian petitioned to play up...First to 4a then up to 5a
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: ricepig on March 30, 2017, 10:31:28 pm
Quote from: sevenof400 on March 30, 2017, 02:42:59 pm
I think RicePig is correct -both schools must agree to a move like this - I don't think one can be forced to move down.
However, it is possible a school other than Greenwood might agree to move down.

Yep, just like when WM and Russellville switched classes due to travel for a few cycles. One has to agree to move down in order for one to move in. I figure this thread will soon be Guv'd, I thought it would be informative, but it's soon to hit the crapper.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: GuvHog on April 01, 2017, 02:46:00 pm
Quote from: ricepig on March 30, 2017, 10:31:28 pm
Yep, just like when WM and Russellville switched classes due to travel for a few cycles. One has to agree to move down in order for one to move in. I figure this thread will soon be Guv'd, I thought it would be informative, but it's soon to hit the crapper.

Then how do you explain Huntsville's situation?? They do not want to move back up to 5A but it looks like they will have no choice.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: ricepig on April 01, 2017, 03:10:10 pm
Quote from: GuvHog on April 01, 2017, 02:46:00 pm
Then how do you explain Huntsville's situation?? They do not want to move back up to 5A but it looks like they will have no choice.

Call the AAA and get your answer, I refuse to try and explain to you how it's done, it's really simple to understand.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: GuvHog on April 01, 2017, 03:22:06 pm
Quote from: ricepig on April 01, 2017, 03:10:10 pm
Call the AAA and get your answer, I refuse to try and explain to you how it's done, it's really simple to understand.

I'm not meaning to be a smart-Aleck about it, I truly want to know how they do it. How often does a private school request to move up in classification get turned down?? I know Shiloh Christian moved up to 5A for a couple of years then quickly jumped back to 4A.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: sevenof400 on April 01, 2017, 03:40:51 pm
Quote from: GuvHog on April 01, 2017, 02:46:00 pm
Then how do you explain Huntsville's situation?? They do not want to move back up to 5A but it looks like they will have no choice.

If the numbers put a school in a classification, that's where they fall.  Knowing a bit about Huntsville, I agree they are happier in 4A than 5A because of the lessened travel demands but if the 3 year student count numbers put Huntsville in 5A, that's where they will be. 
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: sevenof400 on April 01, 2017, 03:42:50 pm
Quote from: GuvHog on April 01, 2017, 03:22:06 pm
I'm not meaning to be a smart-Aleck about it, I truly want to know how they do it. How often does a private school request to move up in classification get turned down?? I know Shiloh Christian moved up to 5A for a couple of years then quickly jumped back to 4A.

In this case, Shiloh's numbers put them in the 4A but the school opted to play up to 5A for a cycle or two.  After a bit of that experience, Shiloh preferred to stay 4A which was where the classification process put them. 
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: Rulesman on April 01, 2017, 05:04:48 pm
Somewhat off topic, but it appears to me the private schools can control the bottom of the classification if they make the decision to move up or down. One day that will come back to bite them. I'm really surprised the publics let it happen.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: HorseFeathers on April 01, 2017, 05:16:15 pm
Quote from: Rulesman on April 01, 2017, 05:04:48 pm
Somewhat off topic, but it appears to me the private schools can control the bottom of the classification if they make the decision to move up or down. One day that will come back to bite them. I'm really surprised the publics let it happen.

I would say its easier to find a monticello or fountain lake to move down a class rather than find a Prairie grove or Nashville to move up a class to allow you to go down....
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: ricepig on April 01, 2017, 05:31:54 pm
Quote from: Rulesman on April 01, 2017, 05:04:48 pm
Somewhat off topic, but it appears to me the private schools can control the bottom of the classification if they make the decision to move up or down. One day that will come back to bite them. I'm really surprised the publics let it happen.

They don't get the option to move down. They are required to play up one classification, and can request to move up, if they can find a school willing to drop down in classification.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: XFalkonz on April 03, 2017, 10:55:42 am
Any idea when the official numbers come out
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: ricepig on April 03, 2017, 11:11:47 am
Quote from: XFalkonz on April 03, 2017, 10:55:42 am
Any idea when the official numbers come out

Looks like it was April 30, 2015 last time.


http://www.fearlessfriday.com/yabbse/index.php?topic=141664.0
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: BigRoll on April 03, 2017, 03:23:47 pm
Quote from: ricepig on April 03, 2017, 11:11:47 am
Looks like it was April 30, 2015 last time.


http://www.fearlessfriday.com/yabbse/index.php?topic=141664.0

The pdf shows April 27, but who knows when it was actually uploaded to the website.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: Complete Biased PoV on April 17, 2017, 03:07:32 pm
Quote from: HorseFeathers on March 30, 2017, 04:51:53 pm
I think this issue came up both times Shiloh Christian petitioned to play up...First to 4a then up to 5a

There was no petition process until after PA tried to stay in 5A for the 2010-2012 cycle.  The petition was implemented for the 2012-2014 cycle, where Shiloh used it to go up to 5A.  I highly doubt PA has petitioned to move up to 6A, because the AAA would not allow them to move up football only.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: andydavis1234 on April 18, 2017, 08:50:24 am
Quote from: HorseFeathers on December 07, 2016, 06:16:47 pm
How's it going to affect subiaco?
About 40 of our 190 students are from the Fort Smith area, but I've heard that we do not foresee the Fort Smith Catholic School putting a significant hit on enrollment, so I don't see Subi moving classifications in this cycle.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: GuvHog on April 18, 2017, 11:38:40 am
Quote from: Complete Biased PoV on April 17, 2017, 03:07:32 pm
There was no petition process until after PA tried to stay in 5A for the 2010-2012 cycle.  The petition was implemented for the 2012-2014 cycle, where Shiloh used it to go up to 5A.  I highly doubt PA has petitioned to move up to 6A, because the AAA would not allow them to move up football only.

It's my understanding that PA has indeed petitioned to move up to 6A for the 2018-2020 cycle and it has been granted. Greenwood will drop back to 5A.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: arthurhawgerelli on April 18, 2017, 03:18:32 pm
Quote from: GuvHog on April 18, 2017, 11:38:40 am
It's my understanding that PA has indeed petitioned to move up to 6A for the 2018-2020 cycle and it has been granted. Greenwood will drop back to 5A.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but usually the petitioning to move happens after the numbers are released.  The private schools now have a representative on the Board of Directors, so maybe it was discussed, but per usual, the AAA releases the numbers and that is the first time the schools see the actual numbers. 
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: GuvHog on April 20, 2017, 04:12:49 pm
Quote from: arthurhawgerelli on April 18, 2017, 03:18:32 pm
I'm not saying you're wrong, but usually the petitioning to move happens after the numbers are released.  The private schools now have a representative on the Board of Directors, so maybe it was discussed, but per usual, the AAA releases the numbers and that is the first time the schools see the actual numbers. 

Understood. I could be misinformed, I'll admit that so I appreciate the information.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: CoachTaylorPA on April 28, 2017, 10:30:12 pm
 No petition has been filed for football. Also for those wondering the following is the process for classification.  AAA will release the numbers.  Activity districts meet and vote on presented proposals on classification and other topics.  The proposals must receive enough votes to be on the docket in August.  The AAA board will make recommendations on the proposals that receive enough votes in their activity districts of no position , do or don't pass.  In August the schools vote on the proposals that made it through the activity districts.  Note membership will likely vote with AAA recommendation. Obviously proposals to pass will need a majority or percentage to pass. Therefore it will be August before anyone knows the classification set up for all sports with 100% certainty. Next year will be blended conference.  Also from what i hear Greeenwood will no longer be the smallest 6A school. 
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: GuvHog on April 29, 2017, 08:26:04 am
Quote from: CoachTaylorPA on April 28, 2017, 10:30:12 pm
No petition has been filed for football. Also for those wondering the following is the process for classification.  AAA will release the numbers.  Activity districts meet and vote on presented proposals on classification and other topics.  The proposals must receive enough votes to be on the docket in August.  The AAA board will make recommendations on the proposals that receive enough votes in their activity districts of no position , do or don't pass.  In August the schools vote on the proposals that made it through the activity districts.  Note membership will likely vote with AAA recommendation. Obviously proposals to pass will need a majority or percentage to pass. Therefore it will be August before anyone knows the classification set up for all sports with 100% certainty. Next year will be blended conference.  Also from what i hear Greeenwood will no longer be the smallest 6A school. 

I don't believe the Conferences will be blended for football but they will for all other sports.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: CoachTaylorPA on April 29, 2017, 09:27:49 pm
That is my understanding at this point as well.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: XFalkonz on May 02, 2017, 02:00:30 pm
Any truth to the rumor that numbers aren't coming out until June?
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: Lions84 on May 02, 2017, 02:12:35 pm
It will be interesting to see how this all plays out !
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: SUGARTOWN on May 02, 2017, 04:01:16 pm
Quote from: XFalkonz on May 02, 2017, 02:00:30 pm
Any truth to the rumor that numbers aren't coming out until June?

Nope.

http://members.ahsaa.org/public/userfiles/Admin/CLASSIFICATION_REPORT.pdf
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on May 03, 2017, 06:08:09 am
Time to see how these numbers compared!

7A hits and misses
Well right out of the gate, the top three schools were predicted correctly as in they were predicted to be top 3 and they all were, but the order and numbers were not predicted correctly. Not too big of a miss, but a miss none the less. Not sure what I missed on Cabot, but it's very tough to use all those feeder junior schools in Springdale correctly, so there was some probably miscalculations there.

Schools 3 for 6 were hit right on the nose. Bentonville at 7 is in the right spot, just missed the number by .17. I actually think AAA will only use .000, .67, and .33, so they probably just rounded up. Not really a miss.

Missed North Little Rock's numbers by 30, which is quite a bit. Not sure what I miscalculated there, but they are in the right spot.

Little Rock Central was right on the nose at number 9.

After that, I missed quite a bit on numbers and places of schools. My calculations for Rogers and Rogers Heritage was way off. Like 200 students off. I had Rogers at 13, but they were really number 10.

I also missed on Southside and Northside's numbers.

So Southside, Northside, Rogers, and Heritage all had some pretty big miscalculations. There could be a few reasons for this, which I'll get to in a moment.

Bentonville West was hardly a miss as far as numbers. Same deal as Bentonville pretty much.

Van Buren was hit right on the nose and Catholic/St. Mary's went up by 19, but that's not a miscalculation. I have no way of predicting private schools ADM.

How I feel about the predictions for 7A compared to actual numbers
Not great honestly. Yeah all the schools were correctly predicted into the classification, but that is pretty easy to do in the stable 7A. Numbers were very far off sometimes. Felt good about some of it, though. Hit some of the schools right on the nose.

What went wrong in miscalculations?
7A schools are different beasts in prediciting ADMS than small schools. It's not like there's a school named "Springdale Junior High" You have George, Southwest, etc. and you have to know what those junior high schools feed into. I'm pretty sure the miscalculations for these 7A schools came from the 9th grade calculations and their junior highs.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on May 03, 2017, 06:14:14 am
6A hits and misses
Jonesboro was hit right on the money. Thanks to x1 for pointing out where I needed to find the extra numbers for Jonesboro.

West Memphis is in the right spot, but missed their ADM by about 20.

Benton is a .33 miss. Nothing major.

Russellville all the way down to Greenwood was hit right on the nose.

How I feel about the predictions for 6A compared to actual numbers
Feel really good about it. Basically hit all the schools on the nose. West Memphis discrepancy is hard to explain, not sure where that came from. Also feel good about getting the Sylvan Hills huge jump right. I thought I might have messed up my calculations with such a huge jump, but I guess SH is growing that much.

What went wrong in miscalculations?
Probably just messed up with West Memphis junior high or missed some other school in their district I didn't know about.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: GuvHog on May 03, 2017, 09:52:44 am
So if the 5A doesn't merge with the 6A in the next cycle and PA stays put in the 5A Central, White Hall will likely move to the 5A Central in Sylvan Hill's spot, Texarkana will take White Hall's place in the 5A South, Huntsville will move up to the 5A West with either Maumelle or Vilonia moving to the 5A Central.

If however PA does move up to 6A, That would likely put Greenwood in the 5A West which would likely mean both Maumelle and Vilonia would move to the 5A Central.

Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: ricepig on May 03, 2017, 10:21:43 am
Quote from: GuvHog on May 03, 2017, 09:52:44 am
So if the 5A doesn't merge with the 6A in the next cycle and PA stays put in the 5A Central, White Hall will likely move to the 5A Central in Sylvan Hill's spot, Texarkana will take White Hall's place in the 5A South, Huntsville will move up to the 5A West with either Maumelle or Vilonia moving to the 5A Central.

If however PA does move up to 6A, That would likely put Greenwood in the 5A West which would likely mean both Maumelle and Vilonia would move to the 5A Central.

The merging will be for every sport but football, and PA isn't moving up two classes.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: GuvHog on May 03, 2017, 11:47:12 am
Quote from: ricepig on May 03, 2017, 10:21:43 am
The merging will be for every sport but football, and PA isn't moving up two classes.

Moving from 5A to 6A would be only one class, not two. PA has been playing in the 5A Central for several years now and there has been talk of them petitioning to move up to 6A in football.

I had forgotten that the merging wouldn't be for football.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on May 03, 2017, 01:13:04 pm
5A Hits and Misses
Well the good thing was that Texarkana was correctly predicted to drop down to 5A and be the largest 5A school, but I missed on numbers by quite a few. There is a school in Texarkana that I think I counted towards their ADM, but perhaps I shouldn't have and that may be the discrepancy.

From Parkview-Alma/Lakeside, the numbers were spot on. The next miss comes with Hot Springs. Hot Springs has quite a few schools in town and its tough to tell which ones count towards their ADM (such as the School for Math and Science). Perhaps this accounts for the discrepancy. It only missed them by a few spots, but they are still in 5A.

Vilonia was spot on, I missed Beebe's ADM average by 4, not sure what accounted for that, maybe just a miscalculation.

After that, 5A was spot on all the way down to the last public school, Blytheville. Of course, the private numbers are off because there is no accurate way to predict them. LRC's ADM went down by 5 while PA's rose by 9.

How I feel about the predictions for 5A compared to actual numbers
Not bad. Definitely some misses like Texarkana and Hot Springs's numbers that I'll have to account for. Beebe's numbers miss is probably something small, not too worried about it.

I was happy the numbers predicted all the schools in the classification, especially Texarkana dropping down.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on May 03, 2017, 01:24:41 pm
4A Hits and Misses
From Mills all the way down to Arkadelphia, the numbers are spot on. Bauxite's ADM is off by 10. Not sure what that is about.

After that 4A is spot on down to when you get to the private schools where you find a classification change that I did not predict (to be fair, it was a private school who made it happen and I can't predict their ADM)

Baptist Prep's ADM dropped them down to 3A, which in turn made Haskell Harmony Grove jump up to the smallest public school in 4A. HHG's numbers were correctly predicted, I just couldn't account for Baptist Prep's drop in enrollment.

How I feel about the predictions for 4A compared to actual numbers
Honestly, even though this was the first classification miss, I feel good about this class. Most of the class was predicted spot on with numbers and place. Even Pea Ridge, where you had to add their Manufacturing and Business school, was on the nose. 

Can't feel too bad about not knowing about a private school drop. Poor HHG.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on May 03, 2017, 01:52:29 pm
3A Hits and Misses
Everything is correctly predicted until I had Jacksonville Lighthouse with a slightly higher ADM than they actually have. With this being a charter school who's enrollment has made them go from 1A to 3A in such a short amount of time, their volatile nature makes the discrepancy make sense.

Hey I didn't miss Junction City by as much as I thought I would. Since JC moved up last cycle to 3A and it has to do with a Louisiana school (in short), I can't find the information to predict JC's exact ADM. So I just added a number that looked right and was only off by 1.33! Here's to guessing!

I missed Episcopal and Harding's numbers obviously because they were private schools. And of course, another classification miss because Baptist Prep moved down and bumped up HHG. But that was covered in the last post.

How I feel about the predictions for 3A compared to actual numbers
I feel really good about this classification. Smackover+Norphlet's ADM was a bit confusing and getting that on the nose was satisfying. This is also the first classification where you have a lot of non football schools and you have to think about which ones fall within the range of the 48 football schools and that can make for some interesting thinking and it's good to see that I counted them correctly. All in all, Baptist Prep moving down wasn't going to be predicted, so I feel very good.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: AT on May 03, 2017, 02:13:26 pm
1A/2A Hits and Misses
No misses until I got down and had predicted Haas Hall Bentonville for about 9 more than their actual ADM. Another school who's enrollment is rapidly rising and being volatile which probably explains that discrepancy.

A miss that cost these predictions to miss a classification for a school. The ADM I predicted for Maumelle Charter was 6 off their actual ADM and that 6 was enough to keep them in 1A. The margin of students is pretty tight at the bottom of 2A. Seems I have a charter school discrepancy and I'm not sure what it is.

Since I incorrectly predicted Maumelle Charter's ADM, Bearden was a miss also. I predicted them to be 1A (except in football of course), but it seems they will be the smallest public 2A school.

Everything seems to be a hit.

All in all, not too bad once you compare.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: HorseFeathers on May 03, 2017, 02:17:39 pm
Considering the leg work you have to do to hunt the numbers and schools down....I'd say you did an excellent job with the predictions
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: ricepig on May 03, 2017, 03:05:18 pm
Quote from: GuvHog on May 03, 2017, 11:47:12 am
Moving from 5A to 6A would be only one class, not two. PA has been playing in the 5A Central for several years now and there has been talk of them petitioning to move up to 6A in football.

I had forgotten that the merging wouldn't be for football.

Geez, Guv, they are 3A in student count, the private school makes them move up to 4A, they've petitioned to move to 5A. They would have to petition to move up "another" class to go to 6A. They have an enrollment count of 310.67, that puts them in 3A.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: GuvHog on May 03, 2017, 03:18:00 pm
Quote from: ricepig on May 03, 2017, 03:05:18 pm
Geez, Guv, they are 3A in student count, the private school makes them move up to 4A, they've petitioned to move to 5A. They would have to petition to move up "another" class to go to 6A. They have an enrollment count of 310.67, that puts them in 3A.

True but they have been playing in the 5A Central for years and have been dominant so PA petitioning to move to 6A would not be shocking. Shiloh Christian played in the 5A West for a couple of years and I believe they are a smaller school than PA.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: ricepig on May 03, 2017, 03:25:00 pm
Quote from: GuvHog on May 03, 2017, 03:18:00 pm
True but they have been playing in the 5A Central for years and have been dominant so PA petitioning to move to 6A would not be shocking. Shiloh Christian played in the 5A West for a couple of years and I believe they are a smaller school than PA.

Shiloh was in the 4A class and petitioned to move up one class, the same as PA has been doing, moving up one class. Should they move up to 6A, that would be two classes.
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: Brian G on May 03, 2017, 03:48:04 pm
(http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view2/1977472/bailey-chasing-her-tail-o.gif)
Title: Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
Post by: bleudog on May 03, 2017, 07:00:27 pm
Quote from: Almatrackster on May 03, 2017, 01:52:29 pm
3A Hits and Misses
Everything is correctly predicted until I had Jacksonville Lighthouse with a slightly higher ADM than they actually have. With this being a charter school who's enrollment has made them go from 1A to 3A in such a short amount of time, their volatile nature makes the discrepancy make sense.

Hey I didn't miss Junction City by as much as I thought I would. Since JC moved up last cycle to 3A and it has to do with a Louisiana school (in short), I can't find the information to predict JC's exact ADM. So I just added a number that looked right and was only off by 1.33! Here's to guessing!

I missed Episcopal and Harding's numbers obviously because they were private schools. And of course, another classification miss because Baptist Prep moved down and bumped up HHG. But that was covered in the last post.

How I feel about the predictions for 3A compared to actual numbers
I feel really good about this classification. Smackover+Norphlet's ADM was a bit confusing and getting that on the nose was satisfying. This is also the first classification where you have a lot of non football schools and you have to think about which ones fall within the range of the 48 football schools and that can make for some interesting thinking and it's good to see that I counted them correctly. All in all, Baptist Prep moving down wasn't going to be predicted, so I feel very good.

JC's full student count is somewhere around 173.  After 2013-2014 the public ADE files show both in-state and out-of-state totals so no adjustment is needed.  Before that date the two data bases needed to be combined at AAA.  The AAA appears to still be adding the two groups together which is doubling up the LA kids.  I would expect the 200+ number to be appealed.

JC 2012-2013 (https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/Schools/EnrollmentByGrade.aspx?year=23&search=junction%20city&pagesize=10)

JC 2013-2014 (https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/Schools/EnrollmentByGrade.aspx?year=24&search=junction%20city&pagesize=10)

JC 2014-2015 (https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/Schools/EnrollmentByGrade.aspx?year=25&search=junction%20city&pagesize=10)

JC 2015-2016 (https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/Schools/EnrollmentByGrade.aspx?year=26&search=junction%20city&pagesize=10)

JC 2016-2017 (https://adedata.arkansas.gov/statewide/Schools/EnrollmentByGrade.aspx?year=27&search=junction%20city&pagesize=10)