Fred Bird's Probability Model - 6A

[WPWells]

PROJECTIONS BEFORE ROUND 1

After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Quarterfinals:
Greenwood: 1.0000
Pine Bluff: 1.0000
Jonesboro: 1.0000
Russellville: 1.0000
Benton: 0.9453
Lake Hamilton: 0.8973
West Memphis: 0.7922
Marion: 0.6398
El Dorado: 0.3602
Texarkana: 0.2078
Searcy: 0.1027
Mountain Home: 0.0547

To Make Semifinals:
Greenwood: 0.9937
Russellville: 0.9166
Pine Bluff: 0.8338
Jonesboro: 0.6017
Benton: 0.3953
Lake Hamilton: 0.1652
West Memphis: 0.0814
Marion: <0.05
El Dorado: <0.05
Texarkana: <0.05
Searcy: <0.05
Mountain Home: <0.05

To Make Finals:
Greenwood: 0.9069
Russellville: 0.6426
Jonesboro: 0.2386
Benton: 0.1015
Pine Bluff: 0.0893
Lake Hamilton: <0.05
West Memphis: <0.05

To Win State Championship:
Greenwood: 0.7584
Russellville: 0.1600
Jonesboro: <0.05
Benton: <0.05
Pine Bluff: <0.05

[ricepig]

Well, it's a theory......

[Made]

I like numbers what kinda formula did you use to achieve this.

[WPWells]

I like numbers what kinda formula did you use to achieve this.

I collaborated with Rich Sanders and used his historical data to get a win probability for a team favored by each range of points (and therefore an underdog having the complementary win percentage). I then did simple probability as follows:

P(Team A advance to previous round)*(P(potential opponent 1 advances to previous round)*P(Team A beat potential opponent 1)+...+P(potential opponent N advances to previous round)*P(Team A beat potential opponent N). I built a spreadsheet to carry out all possibilities.

[2000ZEBRA]

ZEBRAS 3 PEAT

[T-Bone]

Sounds to much like an election.  On paper it looks this way but reality is it goes another way.  I think you have one team wrong but that is why we play the game.

[DogsandHogs]

 Math is interesting ,but it is like predicting scores. Doesn't always work.

[WPWells]

I will post updates in the morning. I have done 7A, 3A, and 2A, and I am tired.

[Oldbadger]

You could have at least stayed up a little longer, while I sleep, and done the 6A.lol

[WPWells]

PROJECTIONS BEFORE QUARTERFINALS

After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Quarterfinals:
Greenwood: 1.0000
Pine Bluff: 1.0000
Jonesboro: 1.0000
Russellville: 1.0000
Benton: 1.0000
Searcy: 1.0000
West Memphis: 1.0000
El Dorado: 1.0000
Texarkana: 0.0000
Marion: 0.0000
Lake Hamilton: 0.0000
Mountain Home: 0.0000

Only 2/4 in the first round here. El Dorado and Searcy both pulled upsets.

To Make Semifinals:
Greenwood: 0.9750
Pine Bluff: 0.9750
Jonesboro: 0.5818
Russellville: 0.8973
Benton: 0.4182
Searcy: <0.05
West Memphis: 0.1027
El Dorado: <0.05

To Make Finals:
Greenwood: 0.8773
Pine Bluff: 0.1170
Jonesboro: 0.2354
Russellville: 0.6312
Benton: 0.1120
West Memphis: <0.05

To Win State Championship:
Greenwood: 0.7355
Pine Bluff: 0.0530
Jonesboro: <0.05
Russellville: 0.1650
Benton: <0.05

[Pr8hd]

What would make some drop in probability while a few rose from the first index to the next and none of the top 4 teams played a game?  The lower the amount of teams the more likely or no change in the probability in my mind. 

[WPWells]

Very good question. The probability formula includes all potential opponents for each round. Since some teams got knocked out, that lowers the probability a higher seed will win a future round as they were almost guaranteed to beat the easy opponent and are not as likely to beat the tougher opponent. I'm on my way to the Hogs game right now, but if you're still confused later I'll give you some actual numbers to demonstrate.

[WPWells]

Actually I can do it now and just make up numbers (note: these are not actual probabilities)

Greenwood
Bye

El Dorado
Marion

Let's say El Dorado has a 75% chance of beating Marion.
Let's say Greenwood has an 80% chance of beating El Dorado.
Let's say Greenwood has a 95% chance of beating Marion.

Before El Dorado plays Marion:

P(Greenwood makes semifinals) = P(Greenwood makes quarterfinals)*(P(Greenwood beats El Dorado)*P(El Dorado makes quarterfinals) + P(Greenwood beats Marion)*P(Marion makes quarterfinals))

When we plug in the numbers:
P(Greenwood makes semifinals) = 1*(0.8*0.75 + 0.95*0.25) = 0.8375

Now if El Dorado beats Marion, the probability El Dorado makes quarterfinals is now 1 and the probability Marion makes quarterfinals is now 0:
P(Greenwood makes semifinals) = 1*(0.8*1+0.95*0) = 0.8

Greenwood's probability of making the semifinals has dropped from 0.8375 to 0.8

[Pr8hd]

Very good question. The probability formula includes all potential opponents for each round. Since some teams got knocked out, that lowers the probability a higher seed will win a future round as they were almost guaranteed to beat the easy opponent and are not as likely to beat the tougher opponent. I'm on my way to the Hogs game right now, but if you're still confused later I'll give you some actual numbers to demonstrate.

I am fixing to head out to the Razorback game as well. Interesting info .

[WPWells]

PROJECTIONS BEFORE SEMIFINALS

After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Quarterfinals:
Greenwood: 1.0000
Pine Bluff: 1.0000
Jonesboro: 1.0000
Russellville: 1.0000
Benton: 1.0000
Searcy: 1.0000
West Memphis: 1.0000
El Dorado: 1.0000
Texarkana: 0.0000
Marion: 0.0000
Lake Hamilton: 0.0000
Mountain Home: 0.0000

Only 2/4 in the first round here. El Dorado and Searcy both pulled upsets.

To Make Semifinals:
Greenwood: 1.0000
Pine Bluff: 1.0000
Jonesboro: 0.0000
Russellville: 1.0000
Benton: 1.0000
Searcy: 0.0000
West Memphis: 0.0000
El Dorado: 0.0000

To Make Finals:
Greenwood: 0.8159
Pine Bluff: 0.1841
Russellville: 0.7922
Benton: 0.2078

To Win State Championship:
Greenwood: 0.5656
Pine Bluff: 0.0770
Russellville: 0.3262
Benton: <0.05

[protegewill]

It looks too much like an Intro to Statistics quiz to me!! Wouldn't it  have been easier for you to just give your real opinion and tell us you want to see GW and Russ in the championship!! 

[bulldogger15]

It looks too much like an Intro to Statistics quiz to me!! Wouldn't it  have been easier for you to just give your real opinion and tell us you want to see GW and Russ in the championship!!

+1

[WPWells]

It looks too much like an Intro to Statistics quiz to me!! Wouldn't it  have been easier for you to just give your real opinion and tell us you want to see GW and Russ in the championship!!

Nah. Can't help if you can't understand.

[Rob Van Winkle]

Does anyone else have the feeling RussVegas is going to mess around and win this thing???

[WPWells]

PROJECTIONS BEFORE FINALS

After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Quarterfinals:
Greenwood: 1.0000
Pine Bluff: 1.0000
Jonesboro: 1.0000
Russellville: 1.0000
Benton: 1.0000
Searcy: 1.0000
West Memphis: 1.0000
El Dorado: 1.0000
Texarkana: 0.0000
Marion: 0.0000
Lake Hamilton: 0.0000
Mountain Home: 0.0000

Only 2/4 in the first round here. El Dorado and Searcy both pulled upsets.

To Make Semifinals:
Greenwood: 1.0000
Pine Bluff: 1.0000
Jonesboro: 0.0000
Russellville: 1.0000
Benton: 1.0000
Searcy: 0.0000
West Memphis: 0.0000
El Dorado: 0.0000

To Make Finals:
Greenwood: 1.0000
Pine Bluff: 0.0000
Russellville: 1.0000
Benton: 0.0000

To Win State Championship:
Greenwood: 0.5818
Russellville: 0.4182

SCORE PROJECTION
Greenwood 30
Russellville 29

[amerra]

RussVegas gonna mess around and win this whole thing