Fred Bird's Probability Model - 2A

[WPWells]

PROJECTIONS BEFORE ROUND 1
After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Second Round:
Danville: 1.0000
Mount Ida: 1.0000
Camden Harmony Grove: 1.0000
Des Arc: 1.0000
Hampton: 1.0000
England: 1.0000
Hackett: 0.9750
Cross County: 0.7922
McCrory: 0.7922
Carlisle: 0.6398
Hector: 0.6398
Mountainburg: 0.6398
Murfreesboro: 0.6398
Earle: 0.6398
Foreman: 0.5818
Conway Christian: 0.5063
Bearden: 0.4937
East Poinsett County: 0.4182
Lavaca: 0.3602
Dierks: 0.3602
Rison: 0.3602
Marked Tree: 0.3602
Quitman: 0.3602
Lafayette County: 0.2078
Salem: 0.2078
Johnson County Westside: <0.05
Palestine-Wheatley: <0.05
Hazen: <0.05
Parkers Chapel: <0.05
Magnet Cove: <0.05

To Make Quarterfinals:
England: 0.9466
Hampton: 0.9453
Danville: 0.9146
Des Arc: 0.8300
McCrory: 0.5710
Earle: 0.5235
Mount Ida: 0.4182
Camden Harmony Grove: 0.4129
Hector: 0.4093
Cross County: 0.3314
Murfreesboro: 0.3053
Conway Christian: 0.2946
Bearden: 0.2872
Rison: 0.1778
Dierks: 0.1719
Mountainburg: 0.1330
Lavaca: 0.1022
Salem: 0.0869
Carlisle: 0.0657
Hackett: 0.0534
Marked Tree: <0.05
Foreman: <0.05
East Poinsett County: <0.05
Quitman: <0.05
Lafayette County: <0.05

To Make Semifinals:
England: 0.8660
Hampton: 0.6488
Danville: 0.5542
Hector: 0.3722
Des Arc: 0.3197
Camden Harmony Grove: 0.3126
Mount Ida: 0.1670
Conway Christian: 0.1340
Rison: 0.1332
Bearden: 0.1306
McCrory: 0.1280
Earle: <0.05
Cross County: <0.05
Murfreesboro: <0.05
Dierks: <0.05
Mountainburg: <0.05
Lavaca: <0.05
Salem: <0.05
Carlisle: <0.05
Hackett: <0.05

To Make Finals:
England: 0.7931
Danville: 0.3127
Hector: 0.2372
Camden Harmony Grove: 0.1411
Hampton: 0.0902
Conway Christian: 0.0721
Bearden: 0.0696
Mount Ida: 0.0647
Rison: 0.0601
Des Arc: <0.05
McCrory: <0.05

To Win State Championship:
England: 0.7469
Hampton: 0.0547
Danville: <0.05
Hector: <0.05
Camden Harmony Grove: <0.05
Conway Christian: <0.05
Bearden: <0.05
Mount Ida: <0.05
Rison: <0.05

[WPWells]

PROJECTIONS BEFORE ROUND 2
After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Second Round:
Danville: 1.0000
Mount Ida: 1.0000
Camden Harmony Grove: 1.0000
Des Arc: 1.0000
Hampton: 1.0000
England: 1.0000
Hackett: 1.0000
Cross County: 1.0000
Carlisle: 1.0000
Hector: 1.0000
Mountainburg: 1.0000
Murfreesboro: 1.0000
Earle: 1.0000
Foreman: 1.0000
Conway Christian: 1.0000
Salem: 1.0000
McCrory: 0.0000
Marked Tree: 0.0000
Bearden: 0.0000
East Poinsett County: 0.0000
Lavaca: 0.0000
Dierks: 0.0000
Rison: 0.0000
Quitman: 0.0000
Lafayette County: 0.0000
Johnson County Westside: 0.0000
Palestine-Wheatley: 0.0000
Hazen: 0.0000
Parkers Chapel: 0.0000
Magnet Cove: 0.0000

14/15 correct in the first round. Only miss was Salem-McCrory

To Make Quarterfinals:
Danville: 0.8159
Mount Ida: 0.4182
Camden Harmony Grove: 0.1841
Des Arc: 0.6398
Hampton: 0.9750
England: 0.9750
Hackett: <0.05
Cross County: 0.4182
Carlisle: 0.1841
Hector: 0.8159
Mountainburg: 0.3602
Murfreesboro: 0.3602
Earle: 0.6398
Foreman: <0.05
Conway Christian: 0.5818
Salem: 0.5818

To Make Semifinals:
Danville: 0.4747
Mount Ida: 0.2037
Camden Harmony Grove: 0.1459
Des Arc: 0.1427
Hampton: 0.8093
England: 0.9559
Cross County: <0.05
Carlisle: <0.05
Hector: 0.7814
Mountainburg: <0.05
Murfreesboro: <0.05
Earle: <0.05
Conway Christian: 0.2834
Salem: <0.05

To Make Finals:
Danville: 0.2089
Mount Ida: 0.0625
Camden Harmony Grove: 0.0558
Des Arc: <0.05
Hampton: 0.1713
England: 0.8097
Hector: 0.5333
Conway Christian: 0.1236

To Win State Championship:
Danville: <0.05
Mount Ida: <0.05
Camden Harmony Grove: <0.05
Hampton: 0.1117
England: 0.7137
Hector: 0.1259
Conway Christian: <0.05

[switch hitting tackle]

Ehh Even probability models don't have respect for the 3.

[WPWells]

PROJECTIONS BEFORE QUARTERFINALS
After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Second Round:
Danville: 1.0000
Mount Ida: 1.0000
Camden Harmony Grove: 1.0000
Des Arc: 1.0000
Hampton: 1.0000
England: 1.0000
Hackett: 1.0000
Cross County: 1.0000
Carlisle: 1.0000
Hector: 1.0000
Mountainburg: 1.0000
Murfreesboro: 1.0000
Earle: 1.0000
Foreman: 1.0000
Conway Christian: 1.0000
Salem: 1.0000
McCrory: 0.0000
Marked Tree: 0.0000
Bearden: 0.0000
East Poinsett County: 0.0000
Lavaca: 0.0000
Dierks: 0.0000
Rison: 0.0000
Quitman: 0.0000
Lafayette County: 0.0000
Johnson County Westside: 0.0000
Palestine-Wheatley: 0.0000
Hazen: 0.0000
Parkers Chapel: 0.0000
Magnet Cove: 0.0000

14/15 correct in the first round. Only miss was Salem-McCrory

To Make Quarterfinals:
Danville: 1.0000
Mount Ida: 1.0000
Camden Harmony Grove: 1.0000
Des Arc: 1.0000
Hampton: 1.0000
England: 1.0000
Hackett: 0.0000
Cross County: 1.0000
Carlisle: 0.0000
Hector: 0.0000
Mountainburg: 0.0000
Murfreesboro: 0.0000
Earle: 1.0000
Foreman: 0.0000
Conway Christian: 0.0000
Salem: 0.0000

To Make Semifinals:
Danville: 0.5818
Mount Ida: 0.4182
Camden Harmony Grove: 0.7922
Des Arc: 0.1841
Hampton: 0.8159
England: 0.9453
Cross County: 0.2078
Earle: 0.0547

To Make Finals:
Danville: 0.4033
Mount Ida: 0.2637
Camden Harmony Grove: 0.3046
Des Arc: <0.05
Hampton: 0.1956
England: 0.7806
Cross County: <0.05
Earle: <0.05

To Win State Championship:
Danville: 0.0669
Mount Ida: <0.05
Camden Harmony Grove: <0.05
Hampton: 0.1454
England: 0.7311

[WPWells]

PROJECTIONS BEFORE QUARTERFINALS
After a team has a <0.05 chance of making a certain round, I will not include them in future projections.

To Make Second Round:
Danville: 1.0000
Mount Ida: 1.0000
Camden Harmony Grove: 1.0000
Des Arc: 1.0000
Hampton: 1.0000
England: 1.0000
Hackett: 1.0000
Cross County: 1.0000
Carlisle: 1.0000
Hector: 1.0000
Mountainburg: 1.0000
Murfreesboro: 1.0000
Earle: 1.0000
Foreman: 1.0000
Conway Christian: 1.0000
Salem: 1.0000
McCrory: 0.0000
Marked Tree: 0.0000
Bearden: 0.0000
East Poinsett County: 0.0000
Lavaca: 0.0000
Dierks: 0.0000
Rison: 0.0000
Quitman: 0.0000
Lafayette County: 0.0000
Johnson County Westside: 0.0000
Palestine-Wheatley: 0.0000
Hazen: 0.0000
Parkers Chapel: 0.0000
Magnet Cove: 0.0000

14/15 correct in the first round. Only miss was Salem-McCrory

To Make Quarterfinals:
Danville: 1.0000
Mount Ida: 1.0000
Camden Harmony Grove: 1.0000
Des Arc: 1.0000
Hampton: 1.0000
England: 1.0000
Hackett: 0.0000
Cross County: 1.0000
Carlisle: 0.0000
Hector: 0.0000
Mountainburg: 0.0000
Murfreesboro: 0.0000
Earle: 1.0000
Foreman: 0.0000
Conway Christian: 0.0000
Salem: 0.0000

To Make Semifinals:
Danville: 0.0000
Mount Ida: 1.0000
Camden Harmony Grove: 1.0000
Des Arc: 0.0000
Hampton: 1.0000
England: 1.0000
Cross County: 0.0000
Earle: 0.0000

To Make Finals:
Mount Ida: 0.6398
Camden Harmony Grove: 0.3602
Hampton: 0.2078
England: 0.7922

To Win State Championship:
Mount Ida: 0.0554
Camden Harmony Grove: <0.05
Hampton: 0.1725
England: 0.7616

[baseball13]

HG beats MT. Ida

[ThreadWatcher]

HG beats MT. Ida

Not according to this probability model!😉

[HG Hornet]

Numbers don't lie, but probability models are just that........they show what's probable or more/less likely to occur.  I happen to have one friend with five daughters and no sons AND another friend with five sons and no daughters.  The probability of each of those things happening is 1 out of 32 or just about 3.1%, but it happened to them. 

Nice models and most of the time, they've been correct. 

[WPWells]

Someone who understands....

[HG Hornet]

Someone who understands....

You know what they say, "8 out of 5 people have trouble with math."