MaxPreps top 10

[thebigman3]

1. ICC (25-2)
2. County Line (26-2)
3. Omaha(28-1)
4. Kirby (25-3)
5. Concord (22-3)
6. Guy Perkins (24-7)
7. Deer (27-2)
8. Nevada (15-7)
9. Mount Vernon (22-6)
10. Woodlawn(12-4)

All this is via MaxPreps. Do you agree or disagree? Personally, I would like to see Omaha and County Line square off, but the only way we'll get that is if they go to state and see each other.

[BannerChaser95]

1) Omaha 0 losses in Arkansas

2) ICC lost to 4A top 5 team and 2a top 10 team

3) County Line 1 point away from being undefeated in the state

4) Kirby losses to 6A,5A, and 4A

5) Deer a couple points from beating Matlock and Omaha!

6) Concord 0 losses since October.

7) Mt. Vernon-Enola beat guy head to head, less losses than guy.

8. Guy lost to MVE so can't be ranked higher than them!

9) Dierks playing some good ball this January, Kirby@ Dierks Feb. 2nd.

10) Nevada / Armorel

[thebigman3]

Switch Guy and MVE and CL and ICC and i agree.

[BannerChaser95]

Switch Guy and MVE and CL and ICC and i agree.

The Top 4 you could flip flop any way really. Kirby could be as high as 2. Icc as low as 4. CL could go up or down one. Either way the top 4 IMO are the top 4. That being said guy just lost to MVE so MVE is higher IMO until guy can beat them. Head to head speaks wonders. Just my thoughts, not saying guys worse than MVE. They have plenty of chances remaining to prove either teams better.

[thebigman3]

The Top 4 you could flip flop any way really. Kirby could be as high as 2. Icc as low as 4. CL could go up or down one. Either way the top 4 IMO are the top 4. That being said guy just lost to MVE so MVE is higher IMO until guy can beat them. Head to head speaks wonders. Just my thoughts, not saying guys worse than MVE. They have plenty of chances remaining to prove either teams better.

I see where your coming from. Only reason I said that was cause Guy beat them 92-63 and MVE only won by 10. But two different points of the season really. But Guy shouldn't have let it happen honestly. They have to get it together.

[thechampchamp]

Guy does seem to be going through a rough stretch. Having troubles with chemistry it looks like. They will work it out.

[Flobbito]

1. ICC (25-2)
2. County Line (26-2)
3. Omaha(28-1)
4. Kirby (25-3)
5. Concord (22-3)
6. Guy Perkins (24-7)
7. Deer (27-2)
8. Nevada (15-7)
9. Mount Vernon (22-6)
10. Woodlawn(12-4)

All this is via MaxPreps. Do you agree or disagree? Personally, I would like to see Omaha and County Line square off, but the only way we'll get that is if they go to state and see each other.

I really don't know anything about teams 1-4, other than they have a pretty good record.  MVE has beaten teams 5 and 6 (also lost big to #6), they have six losses on the season 1 each to Guy, Mt. Pine (top 5 2A school), and WCC (top 10 2A school).  They also have bad losses at Shirley and St. Joseph's, and a bad loss to Nemo at the GFLC tournament (they have beaten both teams that were in the Championship game of that tournament this season).  They have at Wonderview and at Quitman to round out the regular season, which are really a toss up to me, they could win or lose both.  I think these are the top 10 teams in 1A, but teams 5-10 are probably all interchangeable, i.e. and one of them could beat the other on a given night.  To sum it up, who cares where anybody is ranked now, where they are ranked a month from now is all that matters.

[FromTheBench]

If MVE can keep the flow and 23 stays healthy then they are going to be tough. Playing well together right now, however, when they beat Concord the Brock kid (best player) was not there. With him they are TOUGH. MVE and Wonderview will be interesting tomorrow!

[Flobbito]

If MVE can keep the flow and 23 stays healthy then they are going to be tough. Playing well together right now, however, when they beat Concord the Brock kid (best player) was not there. With him they are TOUGH. MVE and Wonderview will be interesting tomorrow!

Didn't know that about Concord.  I think 23 is going to be able to play now, he is good for sure.  This MVE team is just Jekyll and Hyde, I think the loss to Nemo Vista was a bit of a wake up call.  If they win these next two they will have a big head of steam going into the District Tournament, but they could easily drop these two games too.

[FromTheBench]

Their style of play is a lot like Wonderview's, and I think this game is at Wonderview, which is a TOUGH place to play. I've seen some good teams crumble in that environment, but I've seen MVE win some tough games this year. They took WCC to OT, took Quitman to OT and won that one at home, beat Concord who is tough even without Brock, beat Guy and Marvell. All of those listed were home games, so they are definitely better at home, but tough nonetheless.

[thebigman3]

Their style of play is a lot like Wonderview's, and I think this game is at Wonderview, which is a TOUGH place to play. I've seen some good teams crumble in that environment, but I've seen MVE win some tough games this year. They took WCC to OT, took Quitman to OT and won that one at home, beat Concord who is tough even without Brock, beat Guy and Marvell. All of those listed were home games, so they are definitely better at home, but tough nonetheless.

I watched the Marvell game, and Marvell is not near what they were last year. They have good size and very athletic, but not one of them can shoot just real good or good at that. MVE seems to shoot more threes this year than they usually do and that helped them that game was their three point shooting. MVE was up by 10 at one point, but only ended up winning by 2. It was a fun game to watch.

[riccoar]

The only way Concord is beating the 4 ahead of them, or Guy, is by getting a 4 point lead and playing keep away.  Even then it's probably not likely.

[FromTheBench]

I wouldn't count Cornett and the Pirates out too easily. He schemes with the best and ALWAYS has his guys ready to play. There's a reason they're on a winning streak.

[SackAttack]

The only way Concord is beating the 4 ahead of them, or Guy, is by getting a 4 point lead and playing keep away.  Even then it's probably not likely.

Annndddd theres something wrong with this strategy how?

[BannerMountainMan]

I just don't think anybody can stop Cooper this year, I've seen ICC once and he played like a freaking all american.

[JimmyChitwood]

I just don't think anybody can stop Cooper this year, I've seen ICC once and he played like a freaking all american.

I've been saying it but he is the Larry Bird of 1a this year.

[game_day]

Cooper is going to get his points on anybody, does ICC have anything to go with him? He got them to the semi finals last year as a 9th grader I believe. Do they have good guards?

[thebigman3]

I just don't think anybody can stop Cooper this year, I've seen ICC once and he played like a freaking all american.

Who did they play?..

[eamo8911]

Last uearar they beat Mineral by 11 and Bradley by 17. Lost to Shirley in the final four by 4.

[SackAttack]

Guy does seem to be going through a rough stretch. Having troubles with chemistry it looks like. They will work it out.

Id say more along the lines of character issues IMO and actions just scream out dont they???

[thebigman3]

 have not seen him play school ball yet this year, but watched him play AAU. Is he good one on one? Meaning if  a team goes man on him whats he gonna do?.. Sink or swim? Of course you would have to have someone quick and that could play defense. I got the same question.. does he have help?

[dunkman]

I have seen ICC play a few times and also Omaha play a few times and would really like to see them square off. Omaha has continued to win from their defense even on nights they have shot poorly. On nights they shoot well they win by 20 plus. The games that have been close for them they have shot bad. ICC has Cooper and freshman and really falls off from there. Omaha has Matlock, but he can score 10 and they got 4 or 5 more that can pick up scoring. I do believe Omaha has the best defender in Gant in 1A and one or 2 more that is at top of list also. Cooper is good, but he's got his work cut out for him to score from out side on Gant and if he does get around he's got bigger problems with Matlock throwing it out since he can stand there and put elbows on rim. It will be a good one either way. I would have to pick Omaha after watching both play due to Omaha being a lot deeper team.

[Ba$ketballFan54321]

For those interested... here's the teams with the best chance to win state according to my system.

County Line 22.0%
Omaha 18.9 %
Izard County 14.1%
Kirby 13.6%
Deer 7.0%
Guy-Perkins 4.8%
Concord 4.6%

[yesteryearman]

I've been saying it but he is the Larry Bird of 1a this year.

Hold on a minute.....the folks from up north say the kid from Omaha is best player in 1A....folks from southwest say Kirby guard is the best player in 1A.....probably from one night to another any of the three could be the best...........question is, which one will lead their team to the promised land.........

[BannerMountainMan]

For those interested... here's the teams with the best chance to win state according to my system.

County Line 22.0%
Omaha 18.9 %
Izard County 14.1%
Kirby 13.6%
Deer 7.0%
Guy-Perkins 4.8%
Concord 4.6%

interesting to see Shirley #15 and like a .32 percent chance to make state while the teams around them have like a .7 percent chance, shows just how hard that region is.

[Flobbito]

For those interested... here's the teams with the best chance to win state according to my system.

County Line 22.0%
Omaha 18.9 %
Izard County 14.1%
Kirby 13.6%
Deer 7.0%
Guy-Perkins 4.8%
Concord 4.6%

Where does one find the full list?

[Flobbito]

For those interested... here's the teams with the best chance to win state according to my system.

County Line 22.0%
Omaha 18.9 %
Izard County 14.1%
Kirby 13.6%
Deer 7.0%
Guy-Perkins 4.8%
Concord 4.6%

It will be interesting to see how close your information comes to predicting the state playoffs.

[Ba$ketballFan54321]

It will be interesting to see how close your information comes to predicting the state playoffs.

Yeah for sure! I'm interested to see that myself haha. It's about 85% correct game to game and that's over multiple seasons of doing this.

[ZacAttack]

Where does one find the full list?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YULs0sSgpHDLXqDJuFJTocHFHE2pu-CL724HuGJblnE/edit?usp=sharing

[Flobbito]

Yeah for sure! I'm interested to see that myself haha. It's about 85% correct game to game and that's over multiple seasons of doing this.

So you're saying if there were a Vegas line on High School boys games you would be the Jimmy the Greek of Arkansas 1A boys b-ball.  Is there any variance to your predictability during tournaments?  That seems to be where surprises happen.

[Flobbito]

Thanks Zac

[Ba$ketballFan54321]

So you're saying if there were a Vegas line on High School boys games you would be the Jimmy the Greek of Arkansas 1A boys b-ball.  Is there any variance to your predictability during tournaments?  That seems to be where surprises happen.

Haha basically! I guess I'll take that as a compliment. And that's a good question... Not that I've seen, but I'll explore that further. When tournament time gets here I'll try to post lines for all the games and probabilities for tournaments so everyone can check it out.

[ZacAttack]

When tournament time gets here I'll try to post lines for all the games and probabilities for tournaments so everyone can check it out.

LOVE the statistical analysis!  Would it be worthwhile (and possible from your data sheet) to look at the last 10 games only?  That would probably give a more representative analysis of a team's current state of performance.  That should be very insightful at the start of the District Tornaments!

[Blueway]

MVE boys by 13

[HorseFeathers]

I have tried several times to post about Izard County and it never shows up. Everything else I post shows up. I don't know what the problem is. This may not get posted either. I guess it could be that the moderators haven't had a chance to check it yet to see if it is okay to post.

It's not the moderators...

[Ba$ketballFan54321]

LOVE the statistical analysis!  Would it be worthwhile (and possible from your data sheet) to look at the last 10 games only?  That would probably give a more representative analysis of a team's current state of performance.  That should be very insightful at the start of the District Tornaments!

Thanks!! Glad to hear that people enjoy it. Yeah that might be possible, it would be interesting to see.
And actually, Elo gives more weight to recent games. So if a team is trending up, Elo will pick up on that. To do win probabilities I use a blend of Elo and SRS, so recent performance will be reflected somewhat.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YULs0sSgpHDLXqDJuFJTocHFHE2pu-CL724HuGJblnE/edit?usp=sharing