5A Playoff Race Observations at the half way point

[sevenof400]

As we round the half way point in the conference races, I think it is fair to say we may have more interesting races developing this year than at any point in recent memory.  Let's take a quick look around the various races (I'll post these in piecemeal fashion, so bear with me).

5A West Girls
Not surprisingly, the Harrison girls are at the head of the standings and this race may be the closest to what was expected prior to the season.  Last year's 5A title match featured Harrison and Shiloh Christian and even though Harrison swept the regular season matchups, Shiloh found the right combination in the title matchup.  Even still, Harrison was expected to be better this year and results to date would certainly bear that out.  Greenbrier is in a bit of a bind if they want to climb out of the 3 seed as they have already lost at home to Shiloh.  Greenbrier will need to reverse the result at Shiloh and then get some other help.   

Like all conferences to some degree, one can wonder how good the 5A West is overall but one thing for certain is a clear separation exists between the top three and bottom three teams.  At this point, it really is anyone's guess who the 4th playoff team will be from the West. 

Looking ahead, Harrison does still have matches remaining at Shiloh and at Greenbrier so the title is not Harrison's just yet.  Greenbrier must travel to Shiloh as well so at this point, it would seem a Harrison / Shiloh / Greenbrier finish in that order is most likely and at this point, that's what the prognostication will be.  I'm going with Huntsville as my 4 seed guess mainly due to the fact that the other conference teams have to travel to Huntsville.

W1 Harrison
W2 Shiloh
W3 Greenbrier
W4 Huntsville

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5A West Boys

Fresh off their conference title from last year, the Greenbrier boys sit atop the conference once again.  This might be a mild surprise given the coaching change and the loss of some key players from last year but it should be noted that as Greenbrier's club program has continued to grow, the high school team has reaped the rewards of the relationship.  In other words, Greenbrier has been building a youth system that is paying rewards - top marks to them for that. 

It certainly helps Greenbrier that Harrison appears to be a bit down this year from their levels of previous seasons.  One of the most surprising results to date this season was Harrison's 1 - 0 loss at Huntsville. One should be careful and not read too much into any one result, but that scoreline cerainly raised some eyebrows.  With that in mind, Harrison has dug an early hole and combined with their home loss to Greenbrier, the conference title may be out of reach this year for the Goblins.

As noted above, Harrison still has to travel to Greenbrier so the title is not sewn up yet...but the Panthers may have one hand on the elusive repeat.....

I'm going with Huntsville as the 3 seed mainly because the Eagles have been a bit more competitive (meaning closer scores) in their losses.  I know Clarksville won the first matchup but it was in Clarksville and was only a 1 goal difference and the return match is in Huntsville.

I'll have to admit I am a little perplexed at the Devil Dogs this season.  Morrilton looked to be a team that might figure in the final spot or two for the West this season.  The early conference results no doubt sapped some confidence from the Devil Dogs but then you see the recent 1-0 loss to Harrison. The Devil Dogs may yet be heard from but with only 3 conference games remaining, all of them are must wins. 

Post season projection:

W1 Greenbrier
W2 Harrison
W3 Huntsville
W4 Clarksville

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5A East Girls

Let's start with what is known here...

Four teams have separated themselves in the race.
The tiebreaker rules will almost assuredly be needed here.
That which we thought from last year has been soundly changed.

And now, the explanations:

Greene County Tech is leading the conference.
Who would have thought that would be the case near the halfway point in the season?  Full marks to GCT for their improvement from last year, but it appears the Lady Eagles have had their share of good fortune this year as well.  2 of their 3 conference wins have come via penalties so it is fair to observe that GCT has enjoyed some positive turns of fate.  Will lady luck continue to wear green in the 2nd half of the season? 

Batesville still has two matches remaining with GCT (as a result of a weather postponement from earlier in the season) so the Lady Pioneers are still in firm control of their destiny despite their home loss to Nettleton in round 2.  Batesville certainly seems to be the most prolific goal scoring team in the conference at this time so one would be wise to never count the Lady Pioneers out of a game. 

Nettleton ran through the conference last year on it's way to an undefeated conference season and certainly started this year looking much the same.  After two wins though, the Lady Raiders looked off plot for their next two matches and came back to Earth a bit.  At 2-2, Nettleton is in the midst of a battle for playoff seeding and (still) a possible defense of their title from last year.  The question is which Nettleton team will we see for the second half of conference play? 

Also, the Lady Eagles of Vilonia sit tied with Nettleton at the half way point.  If lady luck was indeed wearing green in the first half of the season, she turned her back to red as Vilonia was on the wrong side of a turn of fortune versus GCT.  If Vilonia can continue their improvement they have demonstrated through the first half of the conference season, the second half of the 5A East Girls race will be the best of all the races in the 5A. 

By far, this conference has the most questions remaining to be answered in the second half of the season.  So what will happen - let's offer these possibilities:

Predictions:

E1 Batesville
E2 Nettleton
E3 Vilonia
E4 GCT

I know that is a long drop for GCT but given GCT still has two matches with Batesville, I think the drop to hit fourth is not as significant as it might first appear. 

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5A East Boys

In looking back to the 2013 results, the 5A East boys race had a clear separation between the top three teams (Vilonia, Batesville and Nettleton) and the rest of the pack (GCT would emerge as to claim the 4th playoff spot).  Right out of the box in 2014, Vilonia drops a match to Paragould and you would have cause to wonder in the status quo might be changing.  Looking for further proof of this, Batesville also drops their opening two matches and more heads might be scratching.

Now that the first half is coming to an end, a look at the first three teams looks familiar.  At present, the Eagles face a trip to Nettleton in round 9 that might decide the title if the Eagles and Raiders take care of business until then.  One can be sure the Pioneers will have more to say this season too as they host Vilonia and travel to Nettleton.  I say all that to make the point that in another thread, I will be sure to post the soccer tiebreaking procedures as they will likely be needed here. 

For the fourth spot - it would appear that Wynne and Paragould will decide that question and Wynne already holds a head to head advantage against the Rams by virtue of a 6-5 victory on April 10th.  Nothing against Paragould, but if the Yellow Jackets do grab a playoff spot this season, take a moment to recall that 2013 was the first year for the program.

The largest question in the East is one of quality - no team from the East made the semi finals last year and given the first round playoff matchup for this year is East vs West, this may be a tough task for all the East teams this year so (even more than usual) the higher playoff seed may be even more valuable. 

Nettleton currently sits in an advantageous position despite their head to head loss to VIlonia.  If Nettleton matches Vilonia's record until the second meeting on  May 2nd, all Nettleton would need is a win versus Vilonia to secure the conference title (the score won't matter).  Even if Nettleton drops a game before then, the Raiders would still control their destiny for a conference title should they match (or exceed) the 3 goal difference from the first game.  With that in mind, Nettleton has the better grasp on the #1 seed at the present time.

Here are the projections:

E1 Nettleton
E2 Vilonia
E3 Batesville
E4 Wynne

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5A South Girls hold

In the spirit of full disclosure, I see the South teams less than I see any other conference.  Make of that what you will...

The easy thing to conclude is HS Lakeside is in the driver's seat and go from there.  However, Lakeside's victory at White Hall was in penalties so those two teams might be more closely matched this year.

It is worth remembering Lakeside was a semi final team last year and while I have no idea how many players they may have lost from last year's team, one would have to believe the cupboard is not bare.  With that in mind, Lakeside's result at White Hall certainly gets your attention. 

Before I get too high on White Hall, one must consider their loss at Hope as well.  Again, the reminder to never put too much stock in any one result comes to mind.

In the end, it still appears from this far away vantage point that HS Lakeside is the team to beat.  DeQueen and White Hall would appear to be fighting for the #2 and #3 seeds while Hope and Hot Springs will decide the #4 seed.

The projections:

S1 HS Lakeside
S2 DeQueen
S3 White Hall
S4 Hope

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5A South Boys hold

In the spirit of full disclosure, I see the South teams less than I see any other conference.  Make of that what you will...

DeQueen looks to be in course to continue their success from last year (reaching the semi-finals) when they lost to tournament host Harrison 2-1 in the semi finals.  One factor that may work against DeQueen this year (and may have last year as well) is a lack of competition in the conference and in the nearby area for scheduling.  If DeQueen were closer to more programs and could play schedules against better competition, it might be the missing piece of the formula for DeQueen. 

This year looks to be a similar story in the conference - at this point, there is little reason to suspect anyone will challenge DeQueen as their closest result was still a 3 goal victory.  As it stands now, DeQueen can be no worse than a 3 seed so they will be headed to Harrison.

It would appear HS Lakeside should have no trouble securing the #2 seed.  Hot Springs is a bit of a mystery at 3-2 in the conference because there were some early season results that had me thinking Hot Springs would really struggle again this year.    In conference play, the Trojans have already swept White Hall and look to be ready for a #2 or #3 seed. 

edit: I originally wrote the Trojans swept Hope when it was actually White Hall.  This actually gives the Trojans a stronger hold over White Hall since they own the head to head tiebreaker with them...

What has happened to Hope - a former soccer power that has now fallen on hard times.  Strange that Hope may not even make the playoffs this year but the standings don't lie.

The projections:

S1 DeQueen
S2 HS Lakeside
S3 Hot Springs
S4 White Hall

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5A Central Girls

If ever there was a need for an illustration of separation, the South conferences are current examples.  The private schools (LR Christian and Pulaski Academy) seem (almost pre)destined to determine the #1 and #2 seeds leaving the remaining teams to contest for the rest. 

As an aside, the previous comment was not intended to restoke the public v private debate, rather acknowledge the immense talent gap currently existing between the groups.  It also has to be acknowledged that playing in the Central probably hurts LR Christian and Pulaski Academy more than getting the high conference seeds helps. 

By virtue of their April 1st win at P.A., LR Christian has the inside track on the #1 seed - plus they have the rematch at home.  Even if LR Christian were to slip up before the rematch, the April 24th game will almost certainly determine the #1 and #2 seeds. 

After the top group, you have Sylvan Hills alone (no doubt to be the #3 seed) and the remaining schools fighting for the #4 seed.  One of the more interesting questions right now has to do with Sylvan Hills - how good are they?  Since their 1st round playoff matchup will likely be the #2 seed from the south, this may be the year Sylvan Hills advances past the first round.  Let's also remember that eventual 5A Champion Shiloh Christian only managed a 1-0 first round victory over Sylvan Hills last year. 

And that leaves the #4 seed - I'm going with LR Mills as the 4 seed mainly because they made it there last year. 

The predictions:

C1 LR Christian
C2 Pulaski Academy
C3 Sylvan Hills
C4 LR Mills

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5A Central Boys

Only a slight change here in the boys side of things in the Central as Pulaski Academy currently holds the lead over LR Christian.  We can literally ask the same questions of the Central boys as we have the girls....

Pulaski Academy's 4-3 home win on April 1st gives them the inside track on the #1 seed - but unlike the girls, Pulaski Academy does not have quite the grip on the #1 seed because of the 1 goal difference.  Should LR Christian win the rematch by one goal at home, we will be going to the tiebreakers in all likelihood (see another thread in this forum for the tiebreakers).

If we go to tiebreakers, Rule 7-A-3 comes into play and as of today, here is how that computation would look

LRC: 3+2+3+2+3 = 13
PA: 3+3+3+3+1+3 = 16

So as of today, PA would still hold the head to head tiebreaker even here as well but this can and may change with the result of each game. 

Unlike the girls, the separation between the privates and Sylvan Hills may not be as substantial (SH lost by 2 at LR Christian and SH lost to PA in penalties).  The downside is making up a 2 goal difference on LR Christian is a harder task than flipping a loss in penalties.  The bottom line is Sylvan Hills boys have a higher possibility of moving up in the seedings than their girls at this point.

And that leaves the #4 seed - I'm going with North Pulaski as the 4 seed mainly because my Ouija board said so and I have very little other hard evidence upon which to base this pick.

The predictions:

I think LR Christian will hold serve at home in the rematch, so the projections are as follows:

C1 LR Christian
C2 Pulaski Academy
C3 Sylvan Hills
C4 North Pulaski

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I'm sure most of this will prove to be in error, but here they are...prognostications galore.

[Girls SHoccer]

Thank you, sevenof400, for your insightful and entertaining analysis of the 5A Playoff Race.  With the information I have, each point seems to be spot on!  In the Central girls race, however, having played both teams, I would give the #4 seed nod to North Pulaski over Mills, though both teams have some very talented players.

The huge question this year is whether there will be another improbable Cinderella story like Shiloh Christian girls, or whether those who are "supposed" to win, will win.  That story gives all of us lower seeds a glimmer of hope going into the state tournament.

Last year, Shiloh girls were, at best, the 4th best team and probably more like the 5th.  The planets had to line up, the right teams had to lose in the earlier rounds, and every lucky break had to fall to them, and it all happened!  By all rights, Shiloh shouldn't have gotten out of the first round where Sylvan Hills threatened far more with 2 off the crossbar and Shiloh managed just one meaningful shot (which the SH keeper would have managed easily but for a deflection).  Shiloh's run from that game forward left many of us wondering if the Almighty was breaking his no favoritism policy.

It is no secret that Harrison, LRCA, and PA have the best chances by far (and probably in that order) leaving the rest of us to hope (pray?) for another Shiloh miracle.

[VHSCoach2]

Great observations and insight, seven! I would like to commend you on a job well done!

If I may, I'd like to share something that ties into your thoughts on the 5A East girls. You hit the nail on the head when you said there are four teams breaking away and that the conference could still be any one team's to claim. I did some number crunching (just with today's matches), and this is what I came up with:

I believe a Vilonia VG win over Paragould tonight will give Vilonia and the winner of the match between GCT and Batesville (or maybe both GCT and Batesville) a State Tournament birth, if my math is correct.

After the 5A East VG matches tonight, the standings could look like this:

GCT: 4-0
Vilonia: 3-2 (one head-to-head win against Nettleton)
Nettleton: 2-2 (one head-to-head win against Batesville)
Batesville: 2-2 (one head-to-head win against Vilonia)
Paragould: 0-5

Or like this:
Batesville: 3-1
GCT: 3-1
Vilonia: 3-2
Nettleton: 2-2
Paragould: 0-5

Or Like this:
GCT: 4-0
Nettleton: 2-2
Batesville: 2-2
Vilonia: 2-3
Paragould: 1-4

Or even like this:
Batesville: 3-1
GCT: 3-1
Nettleton: 2-2
Vilonia: 2-3
Paragould: 1-4

The parity that exists between the top four teams in this conference is uncanny.  It will be interesting to see how this race pans out down the stretch.  As you posed the question: will GCT continue their run at the top, or brought back down to earth? I believe the answer to that question will begin to be unveiled tonight as they play Batesville. If GCT gets past Batesville tonight, I could see them staying at the top and contending for the 1-seed as they would have put together a clean-sweep of the other four teams in the first half of their conference schedule.

It's sure going to be a fun race to watch as the final weeks of conference play unfold!