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Weekly Picks Coming

Started by BarclayAlmanac, August 07, 2007, 06:10:53 pm

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BarclayAlmanac

The Top 10 has been out for several weeks. Next, FearlessFriday will feature weekly picks of every high school football game being played in the state by Rich Sanders, who has fine-tuned his RPS ratings since 1986. Rich's picks will be exclusive to FearlessFriday. The first week's picks will be released on Friday, August 23, just prior to the first games on Monday, August 27. In the weeks following, Rich's picks will be released each Monday through the final championship weekend in December.

Lanny


Quite Frankly

Rich is easily the best high school football prognosticator in the state.

Looking forward to Rich's Power System on FF.

tcor145


transplant

Don't rush the "best high school football prognosticator in the state".

It is still a little early.

tcor145

Quote from: BarclayAlmanac on August 07, 2007, 06:10:53 pm
The first week's picks will be released on Friday, August 23, just prior to the first games on Monday, August 27.

That's why I'm waiting.  Today is Saturday, August 25.

transplant

August 25, 2007, 10:00:14 am #6 Last Edit: August 25, 2007, 10:42:54 am by transplant
You are right... I apologize for saying anything.

Rich Sanders

It's my fault the picks didn't get here on Friday or on Aug. 23. I should have just posted them on Wednesday when they were done. There's a process in place somewhere between Wednesday and Friday and I'm not sure what happened, but here they are.

I'll just cut and paste what I've got and you folks can cut and slice away. Hope everybody has a fun first week of football. Above all, let's all hope and pray for no serious injuries and relatively cooler temperatures.

Please feel free to PM me with any specific questions (you know the main question, "WHY, Rich, Whyyyyyy????") ... Also, note at the bottom of each week's picks that RPS can even project how many losers have been picked each week. That, too, is a pretty accurate device.

The picks for Week 1:
First, a disclaimer. After completing preseason numbers for Rich's Power System last month, a few discrepancies were discovered. Nothing was horribly out of whack, but there is one game that will appear to be a contradiction between the initial rankings and the first-week picks. That game is the meeting between Class 4A's No. 3 team, Central Arkansas Christian, and Class 4A's No. 2 club, Dollarway.
The game is at Pine Bluff, which would normally cement Dollarway as the favorite. But CAC gets the nod over the Cardinals and is expected to take over the No. 2 spot this week. So for our purposes, we're treating CAC like the No. 2 team and Dollarway as the No. 3 team – based on the ratings adjustments that have been made in the last month.
While the late change might seem unusual, the fact is that it was the only game of 105 that was affected by numerous alterations in the preseason numbers. None of the changes are monumental, but there are enough of them that a shakeup in the rankings will be apparent between Week 1 and Week 3.
On to the picks ... with the projected winners to the right.

Monday's Games
Sheridan (6A-#8) vs. Warren (4A-#1) at UAPB ... Warren
========= ===========
Central Arkansas Christian (4A-#2) vs. Dollarway (4A-#3) at UAPB
RPS Closer Look: The numbers did not add up after we rolled them out back in early July. CAC is a fast starter and Dollarway has a plate full of land mines on the schedule. This could very well be Dollarway's best chance to win before a Sept. 28 game with Dumas. CAC drummed Dollarway last year and, unlike many precision passing teams, the Mustangs are capable of playing high-caliber football at the season's outset. Projection: CAC.
========= ===========

Tuesday's Games
========= ===========
Nettleton vs. Jonesboro at Arkansas State University's Indian Stadium
RPS Closer Look: Nettleton lost so much when Derek Lawson graduated that it doesn't seem possible for the Raiders to be able to make up ground on the Golden Hurricane .. especially when Jonesboro scored 48 points on Nettleton last year. This isn't so much about a 6A vs. a 5A, but about a team that has never beaten its opponent ... and missed its best chance to do so last year. Projection: Jonesboro.
========= ===========

Heber Springs at Mayflower ... Mayflower
Bigelow vs. Perryville at UCA's Estes Stadium ... Perryville

Wednesday's Games
LR Catholic (7A-#8) at Sylvan Hills (6A-#7) ... LR Catholic

Thursday's Games
Cross County vs. Harrisburg at ASU's Indian Stadium ... Harrisburg
Parkers Chapel at Drew Central ... Parkers Chapel

Friday's Games
Benton (6A-#10) vs. Bryant (7A-#2) at WMS ... Bryant
Jacksonville (6A-#9) at Cabot (7A-#4) ... Cabot
Conway at Bentonville (7A-#6) ... Bentonville
West Memphis (6A-#2) at LR Central (7A-#1) ... LR Central
Texarkana (6A-#1) at North Little Rock ... Texarkana
Fayetteville (7A-#5) at Batesville ... Fayetteville
Fort Smith Northside at Pine Bluff ... Fort Smith Northside
Russellville (7A-#10) at Morrilton ... Russellville
Miami, Okla. at Rogers (7A-#9) ... Rogers
Springdale at Jefferson City, Mo. ... Jefferson City, Mo.
Lawton MacArthur at Springdale Har-Ber (7A-#7) ... Springdale Har-Ber
Alma (5A-#6) at Van Buren ... Alma
========= ===========
Greenwood (5A-#1) at Fort Smith Southside (7A-#3)
RPS Closer Look: Two state champions clash at Southside Stadium and the motivational factors are a little more balanced this time around. As we've seen in the past – particularly where Greenwood is concerned – the smaller school seems to have an advantage in these battles. For Greenwood to travel up the road and take it to the defending 7A state champs on their own turf would be a little more than the Rebels can take. The key for Southside will be to stay out of a shootout, which is much easier said than done. Projection: Southside.
========= ===========

El Dorado (6A-#6) at Camden Fairview (5A-#4) ... Camden Fairview
Lake Hamilton (6A-#3) at LR Fair ... Lake Hamilton
LR Hall at LR McClellan ... LR McClellan
LR Parkview at LR Mills ... LR Mills
Forrest City (6A-#5) at Pulaski Academy (5A-#5) ... Pulaski Academy
Wynne (5A-#2) at Marion ... Wynne
Mountain Home (6A-#4) at Stuttgart ... Mountain Home
Vilonia (5A-#9) at Searcy ... Vilonia
========= ===========
Watson Chapel at Malvern
RPS Closer Look: Leopards fans have been waiting quite a while for a team that can bring some excitement back to the playing field. The hardest person to replace in the program has been long-time former football coach David Alpe, who was at the helm in 2000 when the Leopards last made a playoff appearance. That 4-7 season has been followed by just 15 victories in the last six years. Watson Chapel is not going to be an easy opener and the Wildcats stand as the only 6A foe followed by a pair of good 3A teams on the Malvern schedule. If the Leopards were trying to load up on wins, they probably didn't go about it in the right way. Projection: Watson Chapel.
========= ===========

Crossett at Magnolia ... Magnolia
Monticello at Hamburg ... Monticello
Marianna at West Helena Central ... West Helena Central
White Hall at Hot Springs Lakeside ... White Hall
Greenbrier at Beebe (5A-#7) ... Beebe
Blytheville (5A-#3) at Osceola ... Blytheville
Greene County Tech at Paragould ... Greene County Tech
North Pulaski at Dumas ... Dumas
Ashdown (4A-#9) at Arkadelphia ... Ashdown
Hope at Nashville (4A-#7) ... Nashville
Hot Springs at Lonoke ... Lonoke
Huntsville at Harrison (5A-#8) ... Harrison
Harding Academy (3A-#10) at LR Christian ... LR Christian
Farmington at Siloam Springs ... Siloam Springs
========= ===========
Pulaski Oak Grove (4A-#5) at Pulaski Robinson (5A-#10)
RPS Closer Look: If the Hornets were to head out Cantrell Rd. and defeat the Senators, it wouldn't keep the naysayers from continuing to question Oak Grove's too-high-to-believe preseason rating. The truth is, Oak Grove has burned RPS as much as any team in the state over the past three seasons. And as poor as their performance numbers are, you can't get away from the fact that the Hornets have a ton of experienced players coming back from a team that made the playoffs in one of the toughest leagues in the state. Hopefully, in John Mayes' final season, Oak Grove can prove the numbers to be correct for once. Projection: Oak Grove.
========= ===========

Yellville-Summit at Berryville ... Yellville-Summit
Pea Ridge at Gentry ... Gentry
Gravette at Tahlequah Sequoyah ... Gravette
Greenland at Elkins ... Elkins
Lavaca at Prairie Grove ... Prairie Grove
LR Episcopal at Union Christian Academy ... LR Episcopal
Bald Knob at DeWitt ... DeWitt
Marshall at Mountain View ... Marshall
Newport (4A-#4) at Pocahontas ... Newport
Batesville Southside at Jonesboro Westside ... Jonesboro Westside
Gosnell (4A-#10) at Earle (2A-#1) ... Gosnell
Willow Springs, Mo. at Highland ... Highland
Star City at Rivercrest ... Rivercrest
Valley View at McCrory ... Valley View
Booneville (4A-#6) at Mena ... Booneville
Clarksville at Paris ... Clarksville
Arkansas Baptist at Clinton ... Clinton
Danville at Dardanelle ... Dardanelle
Dover at Atkins (3A-#2) ... Atkins
Charleston (3A-#6) at Ozark (4A-#8) ... Ozark
Ola at Subiaco Academy ... Subiaco Academy
Mansfield at Waldron ... Waldron
Hector at Fountain Lake ... Fountain Lake
Rison (3A-#3) at Fordyce ... Fordyce
McGehee at Bauxite (3A-#5) ... Bauxite
========= ===========
DeQueen at Glen Rose
RPS Closer Look: Glen Rose toppled DeQueen, 35-28, last year in a game that started the Beavers toward their second playoff victory in school history. The victory could have been a case of Glen Rose beating a weaker team despite its enrollment advantage. DeQueen has been disappointing the past few years, but the Leopards are being touted as a potential playoff team in 2007 – possibly even the third best team in the rugged 4A-7 Conference if Ashdown and Oak Grove are indeed overrated. Glen Rose has a big kettle of fish to fry in the early season and if the Beavers are going to compete for a 3A-8 Conference crown, DeQueen is a team that must be defeated. Of course, the same statement goes for DeQueen if the Leopards are to compete in their league ... Projection: Glen Rose.
========= ===========

Decatur at Cedarville ... Cedarville
Reeds Spring, Mo. at Green Forest ... Green Forest
Lincoln at Westville, Okla. ... Lincoln
Mountainburg at Hackett ... Mountainburg
West Fork (3A-#9) at Pottsville ... West Fork
Cave City at Johnson County Westside ... Cave City
Rose Bud at Bismarck ... Bismarck
Thayer, Mo. at Salem ... Thayer, Mo.
Palestine-Wheatley at Barton ... Barton
Brinkley at Clarendon ... Brinkley
Corning at Rector ... Corning
East Poinsett County at Marked Tree (2A-#9) ... Marked Tree
Hoxie (3A-#8) at Walnut Ridge ... Hoxie
Piggott at Portageville, Mo. ... Piggott
Lamar at Magazine ... Lamar
Centerpoint at Mountain Pine ... Mountain Pine
Dierks at Fouke ... Dierks
Gurdon (3A-#7) at Jessieville ... Gurdon
Horatio at Murfreesboro (2A-#7) ... Murfreesboro
Lafayette County at Strong ... Lafayette County
Mount Ida (2A-#3) at Magnet Cove ... Mount Ida
Prescott (3A-#1) at Spring Hill ... Prescott
Bearden (2A-#2) at Harmony Grove ... Bearden
England at Carlisle (2A-#8) ... Carlisle
Marvell at Lake Village ... Lake Village
Junction City (2A-#4) at Smackover ... Junction City
Augusta at Des Arc (2A-#10) ... Des Arc
Hartford at Pocola, Okla. ... Pocola, Okla.
Cutter Morning Star at Western Yell County ... Cutter Morning Star
Foreman at Redwater, Texas ... Foreman
Norphlet at Mineral Springs (2A-#6) ... Mineral Springs
Hampton at Woodlawn ... Woodlawn
Hermitage at Dermott ... Dermott
========= ===========
Prestonwood Christian, Texas at Shiloh Christian (3A-#4)
RPS Closer Look: This is a game that, when the season is done, we really won't look back at and say "hey, that's the game that got Shiloh Christian going." We don't know much about Prestonwood Christian. The Texas private school was hyped as a great opponent for the Saints last year and we all just shrugged and said "sure." Bottom line, it doesn't matter how good Prestonwood Christian is this year. And the result of this game won't tell us much about Shiloh Christian's chances for repeating as state champions. With so many new faces in the lineup, we've still got to give the Saints only a moderate chance of repeating ... and we may not know much more until that Sept. 14 encounter with Greenwood at Smith-Robinson Stadium. Projection: Shiloh Christian.
========= ===========

-- RPS projects 23 misses this week based on the probabilities of each specific contest.

Quite Frankly

Thanks Rich, great analysis as usual.

TCOR where are you?  Rich is off his day job and has posted what you couldn't seem to live without?  :)

transplant

Very good job Mr. Sanders...The early season games are a little more difficult to pick with a high degree of certainty.

Thanks for all the hard work that goes into this.

Rich Sanders

thank you ... hope to get a few of them right.

any stand out that are just completely "no way that can happen games?"

transplant

I have a few different (mostly in the "RPS Match-Up" games) but that is probably expected since those should all be close games...but as far as "you got to be kidding me's" I didn't see any.

That's one reason I don't pick games with out of state teams...I know almost nothing about them except for Redwater, TX.  Hats off to you for stepping out on the limb.

tcor145

Thanks Rich!

Quite Frankly,

Hey I just love the game and look forward to each and every bit of new info about it.  When I read it was coming out those days, I was just more anxious.  Nothing personal to Rich or FF, just anxious.  I can't wait for Friday night now and then I will be anxiously awaiting the next weeks predictions.  It's fun fun fun!! 


Quite Frankly

We're good Tcor!  I just knew you seemed anxious...

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