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Computer-based ratings

Started by Ba$ketballFan54321, December 13, 2017, 12:27:10 pm

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Ba$ketballFan54321

(Note: I posted this same thing on the A board)..

I've been a long-time lurker on this site and wanted to share something. I do statistical analysis as a hobby and wanted to share my work for anyone who is interested. The glossary tab provides a some explanation for the metrics. I have a tab for A and a tab for AA. I have data across all 7 classifications if there's any interest. But most of my interest is in A and AA haha.

Feel free to ask any questions! I'm always looking to improve my model so if anything looks weird or off I'll try to explain why or see if I can improve it.

And also... I try to be completely neutral. This stuff is all completely computer based. My computer doesn't watch the games haha so all it knows is the scores. There is the obvious limitation of not knowing each team's strengths and weaknesses so this is just one part of the conversation. But in the past it's proven to be very accurate in predicting games.

I try to update this at least once a week. Hopefully twice a week.

Enjoy!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YULs0sSgpHDLXqDJuFJTocHFHE2pu-CL724HuGJblnE/edit?usp=sharing

dentist15

Nice. I think your model looks much better than the Maxpreps model (and I base that mostly on the location of Earle, which everyone can objectively say is one of, if not the best, teams in AA this year, and are definitely not 17th in AA, even at this early point in the season).

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: dentist15 on December 13, 2017, 02:14:56 pm
Nice. I think your model looks much better than the Maxpreps model (and I base that mostly on the location of Earle, which everyone can objectively say is one of, if not the best, teams in AA this year, and are definitely not 17th in AA, even at this early point in the season).

Hey thanks! Yeah their placement of Earle is strange to me. Unfortunately, Maxpreps doesn't really explain how their system is calculated. I know it *should* be similar to my SRS rating (at least on the same scale). Earle's only losses are to Marked Tree (a top team in AA) and Osceola (a top team in AAA). They're a really good team.

AT

This is excellent. Would you do this with girls?

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: Almatrackster on December 13, 2017, 07:50:38 pm
This is excellent. Would you do this with girls?

Thanks! And I'd be happy to do this for girls. I've started a spreadsheet with all the games, I just need to get it up to date. That's the tedious part... getting the game data from MaxPreps. So if I get all that data I'll definitely do it.

redrider30

Keep up the good work. Looking forward to seeing the girls rankings under your system.

MomaLion


Ba$ketballFan54321


AT

Just want to put Ba$ketballFan54321's top ten rankings from his spreadsheet so we can talk about this. This is some extraordinary effort and needs to be talked about more.

Boys
1. Marked Tree
2. Mountain Pine
3. Clarendon
4. Earle
5. White County Central
6. Jacksonville Lighthouse
7. Bearden
8. Quitman
9. East Poinsett County
10. Blevins

Girls
1. Quitman
2. Earle
3. Pangburn
4. Marmaduke
5. Carlisle
6. Caddo Hills
7. Lavaca
8. Conway Christian
9. Spring Hill
10. Poyen

I'm surprised to see Lavaca's girls so high is my first thought. I haven't checked their results so far, though. Who thought Lavaca's girls would be rated higher than their boys?

Ba$ketballFan54321

Hey thanks Almatrackster! I appreciate it. I'll have to look at the schedule and explore Lavaca further. They do look pretty good though!

It's interesting to me how there's such a gap between the top tier girls teams and the next tier. There's a 7 point gap from Quitman (1st rank) to Earle (2) then a 7 point gap between Marmaduke (4) and Carlisle (5). I don't know if it's typically like that, but I find it interesting. (News flash, Quitman girls are really good haha).

dentist15

Quote from: Almatrackster on December 17, 2017, 08:36:43 pm

I'm surprised to see Lavaca's girls so high is my first thought. I haven't checked their results so far, though. Who thought Lavaca's girls would be rated higher than their boys?


Agreed, so far Lavaca's boys have very much underperformed (relative to preseason expectations and last season's results, and considering that they returned their two best players), and the girls have so far exceeded expectations. Hopefully the girls keep it up, and the boys turn things around (which I expect they will)

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: dentist15 on December 18, 2017, 09:09:07 am
Agreed, so far Lavaca's boys have very much underperformed (relative to preseason expectations and last season's results, and considering that they returned their two best players), and the girls have so far exceeded expectations. Hopefully the girls keep it up, and the boys turn things around (which I expect they will)

Yeah I think the boys will be just fine. Looking at their schedule.. the only loss that I'd consider a "bad loss" is the loss to Paris. It looks like they play again today so I bet they'll be looking to avenge that loss.

dentist15

Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on December 18, 2017, 09:43:39 am
Yeah I think the boys will be just fine. Looking at their schedule.. the only loss that I'd consider a "bad loss" is the loss to Paris. It looks like they play again today so I bet they'll be looking to avenge that loss.

I'd also throw the Eureka Springs loss in there as well. But I know that one of their two best players, Eck, went out with an ankle injury in the ES game, and didn't play against Paris....Still not good to lose those games, but at least they were in the first half of the season.

Ba$ketballFan54321

Boys updated through 12/21. Girls through 12/16. I've added a new column to A boys and 2A boys. Each team's chance to make the state tournament and chance to win state. This is based on current conference standings and 1000 simulations of the District, Regional, and State tournaments.

Enjoy! If you have any questions feel free to ask.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YULs0sSgpHDLXqDJuFJTocHFHE2pu-CL724HuGJblnE/edit?usp=sharing

Head Lion


MomaLion


Ba$ketballFan54321

I'm going to post a few comparison lists (mostly for fun) haha.
After Christmas break rankings!

MaxPreps:
1. Marked Tree 18.0
2. Mountain Pine 12.5
3. Clarendon 9.9
4. Bearden 9.0
5. EPC 8.0

SimpleRatingSystem (what my computer uses):
1. Marked Tree 22.1
2. Earle 15.9
3. Clarendon 15.9
4. Mountain Pine 13.5
5. White County 9.7

I'm not sure why Earle is rated so much lower on MaxPreps. But we each agree that Marked Tree looks like the team to beat right now.

And just for fun... chance to win state. Don't put *too* much stock into this haha. I'm still working on it, but I thought I'd share:

1. Marked Tree 23%
2. Mountain Pine 12%
3. Clarendon 12%
4. Earle 11%
5. White County 8%

As always, my data can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YULs0sSgpHDLXqDJuFJTocHFHE2pu-CL724HuGJblnE/edit?usp=sharing

This is for boys, but I have girls data on the doc as well!
Enjoy.

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