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12th Man's Numbers Never Lie Rankings - 4A

Started by WPWells, September 11, 2015, 11:05:09 pm

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WPWells

September 11, 2015, 11:05:09 pm Last Edit: September 11, 2015, 11:07:36 pm by 12th Man CHS
I'll be updating these weekly as I have a chance to run the numbers each week. Here are my 4A rankings after week 2 (remember these are mathematical):

1. Lonoke
2. Warren
3. Nashville
4. Malvern
5. Shiloh Christian
6. Dardanelle
7. Hamburg
8. Pulaski Robinson
9. Crossett
10. Star City

AirWarren

You're going to cause someone to combust mentally.

WPWells

Quote from: AirWarren on September 11, 2015, 11:10:03 pm
You're going to cause someone to combust mentally.

Strength of schedule. Top 3 are close and that's why that's the order right now. Warren and Lonoke have played better oponents and beat them by more

LJ06


hawgfan15

Quote from: 12th Man CHS on September 11, 2015, 11:12:12 pm
Quote from: AirWarren on September 11, 2015, 11:10:03 pm
You're going to cause someone to combust mentally.

Strength of schedule. Top 3 are close and that's why that's the order right now. Warren and Lonoke have played better oponents and beat them by more

are you assuming he is talking about Nashville posters? I really don't care what your made up mathematical equation tells you lol we have been #1 plenty of times at this point in the year but all I am concerned with is where we are in December.

WPWells

For someone who doesn't care you sound pretty salty

hawgfan15

Quote from: 12th Man CHS on September 11, 2015, 11:30:37 pm
For someone who doesn't care you sound pretty salty

The only thing I care about is that you assumed it was Nashville.

EagleForLife12


WPWells

I have my own system. Weight is given to margin of victory/defeat within a certain range, strength of schedule, and location of the game. Right now we still have a little bit of the ratings based on the preseason rating I gave each team which was fairly arbitrary and not always a true measure of how a team actually is this season. By week 5 everything should be solely based on this year's results.

EagleForLife12

Quote from: 12th Man CHS on September 12, 2015, 12:15:35 am
I have my own system. Weight is given to margin of victory/defeat within a certain range, strength of schedule, and location of the game. Right now we still have a little bit of the ratings based on the preseason rating I gave each team which was fairly arbitrary and not always a true measure of how a team actually is this season. By week 5 everything should be solely based on this year's results.
Fine with me, I was just wondering cause I never thought we would get enough respect to crack anybody's top 10 even if we where 5 or 6-0

WPWells

Update:

1. Pulaski Robinson (that's what beating a 7A school will do for you)
2. Lonoke
3. Nashville
4. Malvern
5. Shiloh Christian
6. Warren
7. Dardanelle
8. Star City
9. Hamburg
10. Crossett

WPWells

Accidentally entered Lonoke as having a 32-16 win instead of loss. I need to fix the numbers. Update coming soon.

WPWells

Edited:

1. Pulaski Robinson (that's what beating a 7A school will do for you)
2. Nashville
3. Malvern
4. Shiloh Christian
5. Warren
6. Dardanelle
7. Lonoke
8. Star City
9. Hamburg
10. Crossett

~WPS~

Does your system take into account how bad that 7A school is?

WPWells

Quote from: Ballplayer1 on September 19, 2015, 10:48:47 am
Does your system take into account how bad that 7A school is?

It does. It helped that Heritage had the win over Olathe North. I probably had Olathe North rated a little high to start the season which inflated Heritage's rating since they beat them and then in turn Robinson's. Things will work themselves out. There's very little separation between the top 3

green-eagle

I like my eagles, but I would not put them up there quite yet. But I do like jester.

~WPS~

Quote from: 12th Man CHS on September 19, 2015, 10:52:28 am
Quote from: Ballplayer1 on September 19, 2015, 10:48:47 am
Does your system take into account how bad that 7A school is?

It does. It helped that Heritage had the win over Olathe North. I probably had Olathe North rated a little high to start the season which inflated Heritage's rating since they beat them and then in turn Robinson's. Things will work themselves out. There's very little separation between the top 3
OK I gotcha. I was wondering how big of a rating advantage a higher class team has automatically.

AirWarren

Pulaski Robinson is going to be good folks. They are solid.

b.r.93

Hamburg belongs in the top 5.....I don't see them loosing any conference games.

armchajrhog5


My guess and that is all it is right now:
1-Nashville
2-Star City
3-Gosnell
4-Dardanelle
5-Robinson
6-Lonoke
7-Hamburg
8-Pocahontas
9-Crossett
10-Pottsville

WPWells


LJ06

3-4A will have to prove themselves to me before I start putting much stock into that conference.

hawgfan15

Quote from: LJ06 on September 19, 2015, 12:28:04 pm
3-4A will have to prove themselves to me before I start putting much stock into that conference.

yep same here, history repeats itself

Jack1990

So suddenly the 3-4A is the cream of the 4A teams in the state. Better whoa up there a little hoss.

armchajrhog5

Yes ,
And may be wrong about it but Gosnell was really good  last year.They had more young talent that I saw last year and almost everyone back .First two games seems that they are clicking. Pocahontas just off of what they have done so far but no more than a guess.
#10 could have been many teams but I went with a HOMER pick from our conference in Pottsville.


hawgfan15

Quote from: armchajrhog5 on September 19, 2015, 01:20:37 pm
Yes ,
And may be wrong about it but Gosnell was really good  last year.They had more young talent that I saw last year and almost everyone back .First two games seems that they are clicking. Pocahontas just off of what they have done so far but no more than a guess.
#10 could have been many teams but I went with a HOMER pick from our conference in Pottsville.

Gosnell lost in the 2nd round and only returned 8 starters.

So far this year they have beat two 3A teams... Im not buying it

LJ06

Can't tell you how many times I've seen Pokey run through 3-4A and lose in the first or 2nd round in the playoffs.

armchajrhog5

Will be interesting  to see how it plays  out. True that conference has been not very successful in the playoffs
but this does not seem to be a normal year .Just watching the scores and reading this board seems No real beasts out there this year like normal years
Their schedule has them set up to be undefeated going into the Pokey game. Win that they probably go into the playoffs unbeaten with a good draw. Get a good draw  into the playoffs-catch a few breaks never can tell what will happen.
Then again it is a long season and nothing is for sure.

EagleForLife12

Quote from: green-eagle on September 19, 2015, 11:04:44 am
I like my eagles, but I would not put them up there quite yet. But I do like jester.
+1 agreed.

AirWarren

Quote from: b.r.93 on September 19, 2015, 11:57:53 am
Hamburg belongs in the top 5.....I don't see them loosing any conference games.

Same song. New year. And it's losing.

b.r.93


AirWarren

Quote from: b.r.93 on September 19, 2015, 03:27:46 pm
New song...new year...and we will see

Focus on your week this week. This week it's Crossett and warren is 0-0 as far as I'm concerned. Patty cake is over with now. It's 8-4a and 4a football time. Then you can put your money where your mouth is when you get your chance.

THE D.O.C

Quote from: armchajrhog5 on September 19, 2015, 12:12:16 pm

My guess and that is all it is right now:
1-Nashville
2-Star City
3-Gosnell
4-Dardanelle
5-Robinson
6-Lonoke
7-Hamburg
8-Pocahontas
9-Crossett
10-Pottsville
WOW, no Warren, Malvern, Ft. Lake, Shiloh Christian, Dollarway

WPWells

Update through week 5:

1. Joe T. Robinson
2. Nashville
3. Warren
4. Dardanelle
5. Shiloh Christian
6. Malvern
7. Star City
8. Pocahontas
9. Fountain Lake
10. Hamburg

AirWarren


mr.b@sc


GHS_08

Quote from: hawgfan15 on September 19, 2015, 01:25:15 pm
Quote from: armchajrhog5 on September 19, 2015, 01:20:37 pm
Yes ,
And may be wrong about it but Gosnell was really good  last year.They had more young talent that I saw last year and almost everyone back .First two games seems that they are clicking. Pocahontas just off of what they have done so far but no more than a guess.
#10 could have been many teams but I went with a HOMER pick from our conference in Pottsville.

Gosnell lost in the 2nd round and only returned 8 starters.

So far this year they have beat two 3A teams... Im not buying it

Gosnell fan here and I agree. Gosnell has dominated every game so far but there hasn't been much competition. Rivercrest is a tough 3A team and probably the second best team on our schedule behind pokey. We won't be able to tell much about this team until the pokey game. Carlos Blackman is one of the best overall football players in 4A if not the state IMO. He had kind of flown under the radar the last 2 seasons because of nagging injuries. Through 3 games he has 46 carries 658 yards and 12 touchdowns. He only played the first half of 2 games. He is also a force on defense at linebacker. He is 6-1 215 and runs a 4.45. With that being said, IF you shut him down you have a chance to win.

HorseFeathers

Quote from: LJ06 on September 19, 2015, 01:29:18 pm
Can't tell you how many times I've seen Pokey run through 3-4A and lose in the first or 2nd round in the playoffs.

thats almost an annual tradition for them isnt it?

armchajrhog5

My GUESS-
1-Nashville
2-Star City
3-Gosnell
4-Dardanelle
5-Robinson
6-Hamburg
7-Warren
8-Pocahontas
9-PB Dollarway
10-Shiloh Christian

WPWells

What has Gosnell done to warrant the #3 ranking? Serious question. My rankings have them #11

AirWarren

Quote from: mr.b@sc on September 27, 2015, 07:19:06 pm
Quote from: AirWarren on September 27, 2015, 06:37:46 pm
I like this poll as well.
i will like it better when sc is #3 and warren is #7...

Ha. You guys aim for #3. We are aiming for #1!

GHS_08

Quote from: 12th Man CHS on September 28, 2015, 09:18:02 am
What has Gosnell done to warrant the #3 ranking? Serious question. My rankings have them #11

Nothing at all. Like I said in a previous post, we won't know much until we play Pocahontas.

GHS_08

Quote from: 12th Man CHS on September 28, 2015, 09:18:02 am
What has Gosnell done to warrant the #3 ranking? Serious question. My rankings have them #11

Nothing at all. Like I said in a previous post, we won't know much until we play Pocahontas.

phdefense

September 28, 2015, 12:08:47 pm #43 Last Edit: September 28, 2015, 12:12:22 pm by phdefense
Quote from: GHS_08 on September 28, 2015, 12:01:47 pm
Quote from: 12th Man CHS on September 28, 2015, 09:18:02 am
What has Gosnell done to warrant the #3 ranking? Serious question. My rankings have them #11

Nothing at all. Like I said in a previous post, we won't know much until we play Pocahontas.
Analytics are fun so let's take this statement and run with it.

What will you know? If

A: Gosnell mercy rules Pocahontas.

B: It's a close game (touchdown difference either way).

C: Pocahontas mercy rules Gosnell.

Considering that the strongest team Pocahontas has played thus far is a team that will struggle to make the playoffs in the 4A-2.

SUGARTOWN

Quote from: phdefense on September 28, 2015, 12:08:47 pm
Quote from: GHS_08 on September 28, 2015, 12:01:47 pm
Quote from: 12th Man CHS on September 28, 2015, 09:18:02 am
What has Gosnell done to warrant the #3 ranking? Serious question. My rankings have them #11

Nothing at all. Like I said in a previous post, we won't know much until we play Pocahontas.
Analytics are fun so let's take this statement and run with it.

What will you know? If

A: Gosnell mercy rules Pocahontas.

B: It's a close game (touchdown difference either way).

C: Pocahontas mercy rules Gosnell.

A: Gosnell mercy rules Pocahontas.
     "See I told you so."

B: It's a close game (touchdown difference either way).
    Either, "the refs cheated", or "See I told you so"

C: Pocahontas mercy rules Gosnell.
     "It was really closer than the final score".


Qhcaoc

Quote from: phdefense on September 28, 2015, 12:08:47 pm
Quote from: GHS_08 on September 28, 2015, 12:01:47 pm
Quote from: 12th Man CHS on September 28, 2015, 09:18:02 am
What has Gosnell done to warrant the #3 ranking? Serious question. My rankings have them #11

Nothing at all. Like I said in a previous post, we won't know much until we play Pocahontas.
Analytics are fun so let's take this statement and run with it.

What will you know? If

A: Gosnell mercy rules Pocahontas.

B: It's a close game (touchdown difference either way).

C: Pocahontas mercy rules Gosnell.

Considering that the strongest team Pocahontas has played thus far is a team that will struggle to make the playoffs in the 4A-2.

I am not sure what you learn from it but my best guess on this situation is B

Jimbo Morphis

Quote from: b.r.93 on September 19, 2015, 11:57:53 am
Hamburg belongs in the top 5.....I don't see them loosing any conference games.
loosing= whoever wants it the most.   

AirWarren

Quote from: Oldman on September 28, 2015, 01:00:20 pm
Quote from: b.r.93 on September 19, 2015, 11:57:53 am
Hamburg belongs in the top 5.....I don't see them loosing any conference games.
loosing= whoever wants it the most.   

Loosing. Another idiot left behind.

phdefense

Quote from: AirWarren on September 28, 2015, 01:57:52 pm
Quote from: Oldman on September 28, 2015, 01:00:20 pm
Quote from: b.r.93 on September 19, 2015, 11:57:53 am
Hamburg belongs in the top 5.....I don't see them loosing any conference games.
loosing= whoever wants it the most.   

Loosing. Another idiot left behind.
He likes to dish it out.

But when someone is better at it than him

Quote from: AirWarren on September 16, 2015, 08:31:58 pm
You are the king troll. You are one of the main ones that roams and rogues this forum and talks trash. The way fearless Friday is these days, is all because of you and cucks ways of constant trash talk, running down towns, posters etc. And now all of the sudden you are taking the high ground? Please. Congrats on making ff the way it is, or how you say it is with you and your rogue trolling full of trash talk.

As far as I'm concerned, don't let the door hit you on the ace on way out.


AirWarren

September 28, 2015, 02:31:35 pm #49 Last Edit: September 28, 2015, 02:34:34 pm by AirWarren
There she is. Couldn't help yourself could you? Like a dog in heat, chasing down my posts. Take note of what I do, consider you guys dead after the beat down and not post nothing toward the Stuttgart clown crusade.



*cue the rest of the clown crusade.

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