CLASS WATCH: 4A in 2018

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To start, the summary thread can be found HERE.

Keep in mind, We'll need one more year of enrollment figures to all but finalize future placement.


Through the Ceiling

I saw on the 4A-1 thread where someone expects Huntsville to be "begging not to go back to 5A ever again."

If that's what's on the brain in Madison County, they might want to think of a way to tank the local economy.

The applicable headcount the past two years in Eagle Country? 524 and 520.

Yeah, you'll need a tank job if you want to remain in the same class after that.

It doesn't help that there are two other schools molting students like a snake.

Once a school playing in the state's top class, Mills now finds itself on the brink. Its headcount has dropped from 517 last year to 503 this year, with a PADM of 510. While said PADM keeps it in 5A for now, this year's headcount is below the current cutoff (see below).

Blytheville is in the same boat, only more extreme. A sprouting KIPP school in town is putting a strain on numbers, as it dropped from 533 last year to 494 this year. While the PADM (513.5) is currently higher than Mills, KIPP's early growth is expected to cut the Chicks even deeper.

Then you have De Queen, who's currently being forced down by Huntsville despite steady numbers. Said steady numbers (PADM 506) may bring them back up Blytheville drops far enough. If the Comets join the freefall, there's a good chance that Berryville (PADM 501) could be forced up, as well.


Through the Floor

This is turning out to be one busy cutoff. Six schools are looking to change classes at this point, with five others threatening to further muddy the water.

Witnessing the biggest spike here is Bald Knob. The headcounts the past two years are 314 and 324, with the PADM sitting at 319. Further east, Rivercrest has experienced a spike of its own, going from 287 to 313 (PADM 300).

Meanwhile, Smackover is currently benefiting greatly from its merger with Norphlet, with its PADM at 298.5.

Currently switching with them are schools with a history of playing in 3A at some point, including a pair that look to jump up to 4A over the summer. West Fork has sustained the kind of number drop that you'd normally witness in east-central Arkansas, going from 303 last year to 258 this year, with a PADM of 280.5.

Booneville continues its roller-coaster ride numbers-wise, going from 300 last year to 293 this year (PADM 296.5). Joining the above two is Harrisburg, with a PADM of 286.5.

However, there are other schools that could shake things up a bit depending on what happens next year. Riverview (296), Dollarway (282), and Cave City (290) all have current numbers below the cutoff, whereas Green Forest (302) and Clinton (305) have current numbers above the cutoff.

[OLDSCHOOL82]

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