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Wynne vs Pulaski Academy 5A State Championship

Started by AIREDALE25, November 25, 2016, 08:51:30 pm

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Who wins this?

Wynne
68 (64.8%)
Pulaski Academy
37 (35.2%)

Total Members Voted: 104

Voting closed: December 02, 2016, 10:43:25 am

AIREDALE25

I'm going to go ahead and start this thread. PA is up 28 at half and
I don't see Batesville coming back and Wynne is up 56 to 28 over WC so I'm going to say that this will probably be the best game of the year if everything stays the same over the next hour or so. I think PA has the Advantage next Saturday.
Wynne- 31
PA- 38

PrivateLesson

Why are you giving PA the advantage?   Based on what?   

AIREDALE25

Well. The way I look at it.
PA has basically won all there games this season by a sizeable margin. They've beat up on the teams in the playoffs. So has Wynne but Wynne also let Watson Chapel hold on to them for a couple quarters PA won't allow that it may be higher than 38. Wynne will have to come out strong and kick some butt early. Yes I do understand Wynne has had the so called toughest post season schedule too. But i just think PA pulls it off.

AIREDALE25

But one other thing is Wynne has scored more overall Points these last 3 weeks so. They could very well win next week. But there going to have to hold strong tonight I just checked again WC is up to 35 now
56-35 Wynne

justalionfan

Quote from: AIREDALE25 on November 25, 2016, 08:58:08 pm
Well. The way I look at it.
PA has basically won all there games this season by a sizeable margin. They've beat up on the teams in the playoffs. So has Wynne but Wynne also let Watson Chapel hold on to them for a couple quarters PA won't allow that it may be higher than 38. Wynne will have to come out strong and kick some butt early. Yes I do understand Wynne has had the so called toughest post season schedule too. But i just think PA pulls it off.

If that is the way you look at it, wynne mercy ruled Batesville in the first quarter, it took PA three quarters.

JacketDad

If we make it our defense better show up.  They certainly have not tonight.  PA's offense will give us fits.  I think both teams will have trouble stopping the other. Will come down to whether Wynne can recover the kicks.

AIREDALE25

So how's Wynne Defensive Player doing after breaking his leg against Morrilton?

Overdahill

Quote from: AIREDALE25 on November 25, 2016, 08:51:30 pm
I'm going to go ahead and start this thread. PA is up 28 at half and
I don't see Batesville coming back and Wynne is up 56 to 28 over WC so I'm going to say that this will probably be the best game of the year if everything stays the same over the next hour or so. I think PA has the Advantage next Saturday.
Wynne- 31
PA- 38


I assume thats your halftime prediction. What about the final score? ;D

PrivateLesson

November 25, 2016, 09:43:10 pm #8 Last Edit: November 25, 2016, 09:45:17 pm by PrivateLesson
Lol!!!!!    I'm scared to ask.   I think Wynne will be a tough game for PA.    I'm going with Wynne to win. 

WPWells


Overdahill


PA Dad


deltahog66

Quote from: Fred Bird on November 25, 2016, 09:50:47 pm
PA by 21

PA may very well win, but it won't be by 21. Want to make a friendly wager on it?

WPWells

I can think independently of my model....besides, I built the model but they aren't my numbers. I'm tinkering with it this offseason to make the numbers my own.

Overdahill

10-4. thanks. we were just funning you anyhow (at least I was)

justalionfan

Here is my prediction. Some troll is going to post, WYNNE HAS NEVER FACED A TEAM LIKE THIS

PA Dad

November 25, 2016, 10:11:59 pm #16 Last Edit: November 26, 2016, 11:46:11 am by PA Dad
I think lots of folks have been wanting to see this game.  I know I have.  Wynne and PA have been 1 and 2 in this board's poll for most of the year.

It will be PA's finesse versus Wynne's brute strength.  PA's passing game against Wynne's running game.  Two very good defenses going at it.

Most championship games are not shootouts.  I know both teams are high scoring, but I think the defenses step up in this game.  I think the winner will score in the low 40's.

I think we might see a nail biter that comes down to the last possession.

I'm not ready to predict a winner, but I will predict a hard fought, exciting game.

Deuceswild

I'm one of the few that had PA #1 all year but I am thinking Wynne's Power will be too much. Hope to God I don't work next weekend, should be one ALL 5A fans need to see for themselves. Who's gonna be there?

Red Devil Alum

Quote from: justajacketfan on November 25, 2016, 10:08:44 pm
Here is my prediction. Some troll is going to post, WYNNE HAS NEVER FACED A TEAM LIKE THIS
Just out of curiosity, who have they played this year like PA?

Overdahill

I just have one question: IF PA should happen to beat the top 3 seeds from the East, is the East still the strongest conference ;D

#1jacketfan


PA Dad


walkingguy72396

I think the point is that Batesville is not very good.  This year.

#1jacketfan

Quote from: PA Dad on November 25, 2016, 10:30:21 pm
And your point is?
My point is Watson Chapel beat SH at home...PA struggled with SH...and Wynne hung 77 on WC.

PA Dad

Quote from: #1jacketfan on November 25, 2016, 10:44:16 pm
My point is Watson Chapel beat SH at home...PA struggled with SH...and Wynne hung 77 on WC.

I take all that to mean you think Wynne will put a beating on PA.

#1jacketfan

Quote from: PA Dad on November 25, 2016, 10:46:13 pm
I take all that to mean you think Wynne will put a beating on PA.
No not really...I think it will be a high scoring game....it will be tough to stop each other...I think it will come down to turnovers.

The Green Arrow


Yellowcake

It will be a great game. I think wynne will beat us.
Scored two sideline passes for all six championship games tonight. So it's been a good night.

Looking forward to seeing this NEW BREED play.

PA Dad

I'm curious about what the Batesville posters think about this game.  Batesville has played both teams.  What do you think about the strengths/weaknesses of the teams.  Which team has the edge?

And McClellan has played both teams.  What do their fans think?

AT

According to Calpreps:

State Championship matchups since 2003:

Format:

State Ranking. Team - Rating vs. State Ranking. Team - Rating

Keep in mind, these are OVERALL state rankings to prove my point in just a moment:

2003
4. Batesville - 40.7 vs. 7. Vilonia - 33.2

2004
4. Wynne - 37.3 vs. 9. Greenwood - 33.2

2005
3. Greenwood - 44.7 vs. 7. Morrilton - 37.7

2006
6. Greenwood - 43.9 vs. 9. Pulaski Academy - 41.8

2007
2. Greenwood - 46.2 vs. 9. Little Rock Christian - 37.4

2008
2. Pulaski Academy - 52.7 vs. 6. Helena-West Helena - 45.8

2009
4. Monticello - 50.5 vs. 18. Camden Fairview - 36.0

2010
9. Greenwood - 38.9 vs. 12. Camden Fairview - 29.0

2011
4. Greenwood - 45.5 vs. 20. Batesville - 25.6

2012
5. Camden Fairview - 45.1 vs. 13. Batesville - 33.0

2013
7. Morrilton - 39.5 vs. 16. Batesville - 33.7

2014
6. Pulaski Academy - 47.4 vs. 18. Wynne - 34.5

2015
5. Pulaski Academy - 56.2 vs. 16. Little Rock McClellan - 35.7

2016
3. Wynne - 55.5 vs. 5. Pulaski Academy - 52.1*

* - This is obviously the pre-state championship game results while the rest are post state championship game ratings.

Some thoughts:

1. I believe calpreps has normalized their ratings throughout the years. That means that even if they used a different method in the past, they went back and fixed those ratings to reflect their now used methods.

2. I believe this to be the best state championship matchup we've had in at least 13 years, maybe longer. There's only been a few teams that finished in the 50s in their ratings: 2008 Pulaski Academy, 2009 Monticello, 2015 Pulaski Academy.

3. Is the 2008 state championship game the most underrated matchup of all time? No one ever talks about that game.

4. This will be the first time I think we will see the two state champions in the 50s after the game. I could be wrong.

5. I think 5A is in for a treat next weekend.

MDXPHD

Quote from: PA Dad on November 26, 2016, 12:45:01 am
I'm curious about what the Batesville posters think about this game.  Batesville has played both teams.  What do you think about the strengths/weaknesses of the teams.  Which team has the edge?

And McClellan has played both teams.  What do their fans think?

Wynne can't stop the pass, PA can pass. PA will put up a lot of points..but scrambling around isn't going to work against Wynne. Just throw the deep ball and you'll score. The problem is giving the ball to Wynne at the 50 each time. Wynne is going to score plenty.. Their offensive line,qb, and rbs are rarely going to get tackled in the backfield.

Watching both teams play a few times  this year, I give the edge to Wynne. But, PA has something that can't be undervalued: experience. Third year in a row and they know what it feels like to win them. I would not be shocked at all for PA to win. Just looking forward to the game.

The Future

Quote from: Almatrackster on November 26, 2016, 01:44:08 am
According to Calpreps:

State Championship matchups since 2003:

Format:

State Ranking. Team - Rating vs. State Ranking. Team - Rating

Keep in mind, these are OVERALL state rankings to prove my point in just a moment:

2003
4. Batesville - 40.7 vs. 7. Vilonia - 33.2

2004
4. Wynne - 37.3 vs. 9. Greenwood - 33.2

2005
3. Greenwood - 44.7 vs. 7. Morrilton - 37.7

2006
6. Greenwood - 43.9 vs. 9. Pulaski Academy - 41.8

2007
2. Greenwood - 46.2 vs. 9. Little Rock Christian - 37.4

2008
2. Pulaski Academy - 52.7 vs. 6. Helena-West Helena - 45.8

2009
4. Monticello - 50.5 vs. 18. Camden Fairview - 36.0

2010
9. Greenwood - 38.9 vs. 12. Camden Fairview - 29.0

2011
4. Greenwood - 45.5 vs. 20. Batesville - 25.6

2012
5. Camden Fairview - 45.1 vs. 13. Batesville - 33.0

2013
7. Morrilton - 39.5 vs. 16. Batesville - 33.7

2014
6. Pulaski Academy - 47.4 vs. 18. Wynne - 34.5

2015
5. Pulaski Academy - 56.2 vs. 16. Little Rock McClellan - 35.7

2016
3. Wynne - 55.5 vs. 5. Pulaski Academy - 52.1*

* - This is obviously the pre-state championship game results while the rest are post state championship game ratings.

Some thoughts:

1. I believe calpreps has normalized their ratings throughout the years. That means that even if they used a different method in the past, they went back and fixed those ratings to reflect their now used methods.

2. I believe this to be the best state championship matchup we've had in at least 13 years, maybe longer. There's only been a few teams that finished in the 50s in their ratings: 2008 Pulaski Academy, 2009 Monticello, 2015 Pulaski Academy.

3. Is the 2008 state championship game the most underrated matchup of all time? No one ever talks about that game.

4. This will be the first time I think we will see the two state champions in the 50s after the game. I could be wrong.

5. I think 5A is in for a treat next weekend.

Great post. I actually agree with the 08 game. While its not on my top 10 games, its still worth mentioning in good title games.

Best match up in past 13 years? Looking at this list of past championships, I would say the only other one that could give it a run would be the 06 Greenwood PA game. But with both Wynne and PA in the 50s and Greenwood and PA in the low 40s, I could definitely see your thinking.

I'm totally thinking about heading up to Little Rock early and watching this game as well Saturday. PA Wynne followed by Greenwood Russellville will be my money's worth for sure.

The Future

I think PA will still get the wynne.....
badum tssh


The 2014 game I think PA was a heavy favorite but this time around it might be a lot closer than we think. I still think the Bruins will get the 3peat but won't be surprised the least if Wynne wins. I don't have a favorite picked but I could see myself pulling for Wynne as the game goes on.

I'm going Pulaski Academy 46 Wynne 45

Razorback Red

Quote from: PA Dad on November 25, 2016, 10:11:59 pm
I think lots of folks have been wanting to see this game.  I know I have.  Wynne and PA have been 1 and 2 in this board's poll for most of the year.

It wii be PA's finesse versus Wynne's brute strength.  PA's passing game against Wynne's running game.  Two very good defenses going at it.

Most championship games are not shootouts.  I know both teams are high scoring, but I think the defenses step up in this game.  I think the winner will score in the low 40's.

I think we might see a nail biter that comes down to the last possession.

I'm not ready to predict a winner, but I will predict a hard fought, exciting game.

PA Dad:
Sounds like this game is very similar to the 7A title game with PA being FHS and Wynne being NLR. 


walkingguy72396

I think the game is more like.  Monticello vs Camden Fairview.

Possessions will be key in this game. 

Now we have to see if Wynne can catch Mr. Circle Back running Hatcher.

OH, Wynne is Monticello.

rpr

The selection committee got it right. The two best teams in 5A will settle it on the field. Should be a great game.

oldjacketman

Some posters are not very informed. Wynne has been thrashed in the passing game but the vast majority have been the short and intermediate stuff. And now we have a batesville poster saying just throw the deep ball and score. How'd that work for the pioneers? If that was the case, shouldn't a high powered team with two of the best receivers in the state have had more than 75 yards of total offense against the wynne starters? Wynne needs to figure out how to cover anyone up to 10 yards so that they can actually get a rush. But I digress...

PA Dad

Quote from: Razorback Red on November 26, 2016, 07:55:15 am
PA Dad:
Sounds like this game is very similar to the 7A title game with PA being FHS and Wynne being NLR.

I agree that there are similarities.  But, Wynne may well be the favorite in this one.

The_Pioneer

I'm predicting a lot of chest thumping and douchiness this week.  And that's just from #1jacketfan. 

justalionfan

Quote from: PA Dad on November 26, 2016, 12:45:01 am
I'm curious about what the Batesville posters think about this game.  Batesville has played both teams.  What do you think about the strengths/weaknesses of the teams.  Which team has the edge?

And McClellan has played both teams.  What do their fans think?

So have Forrest city and Beebe.

Pr8hd

Quote from: JacketDad on November 25, 2016, 09:10:25 pm
Will come down to whether Wynne can recover the kicks.

Exactly, to win against  the Bruins, you have to beat them at their own game. You must make them pay for their unorthodox style and possibly get them out of it some...make the majority of the recoveries, take advantage of the short field opportunities, and score. Also, make them pay on their 4th down attempts and keep that conversion percentage to a minimum. Capitalize on the situations and just make the plays.

If Wynne can hold par or reverse the pressure, I can see Wynne taking this one. If PA makes the recoveries and conversions with a high success rate, Wynne will have to play catch up all game long.  It sure looks like a dandy. I am glad this is the early game Saturday, going to try to convince the wife to go down and watch this one before the GW/Russ game at 6:30.

MDXPHD

Quote from: oldjacketman on November 26, 2016, 09:09:41 am
Some posters are not very informed. Wynne has been thrashed in the passing game but the vast majority have been the short and intermediate stuff. And now we have a batesville poster saying just throw the deep ball and score. How'd that work for the pioneers? If that was the case, shouldn't a high powered team with two of the best receivers in the state have had more than 75 yards of total offense against the wynne starters? Wynne needs to figure out how to cover anyone up to 10 yards so that they can actually get a rush. But I digress...

No clue what team you're referencing.

But, maybe you haven't watched Wynne recently? They were gashed last night, several on the deep ball. I watched the entire game. And I'm not "informed" by anybody. I have watched Wynne several times this year. Batesville is not PA, obviously, and Pa will eat your secondary alive..deep, short, intermediate.


hogrock

If memory serves me correctly, Batesville recovered all on-side kicks and maybe stopped PA once on 4th down.

AT

I don't know about this year's team, but I've always thought the key to stopping PA's offense is pressure on the QB because they WILL tear you up with those short, immediate routes.

Beating PA in a shootout has been done before...but not often.

STBruin

I agree with several of the posters...this is going to be a great game, with 2 teams with quite opposite philosophies...going to be a game of possessions, with each team not going to have the luxury of a bad series. Can't wait till Saturday!!!!!


PercussionMan

I plan on making it to both games Saturday.  I know I've been wanting to see this rematch from 2014.  I may have to sit on the Wynne side once again.  I have only seen these two teams on live streams.  I see a high scoring game with Wynne having short field when they do recover the onside kicks....I don't see them having trouble scoring in that situation.  Also, if P.A. gets a few of those onside kicks and goes ahead 2-3 scores, what will Coach Hill do??  Can Wynne overcome a deficit like that on the ground??  (I know they are quick strike running the ball, but P.A. is quick strike passing the ball).  If you're down 2-3 scores, you can't keep trading scores.  I'm pulling for Wynne, just like last time....I want to see Coach Hill finally get his first championship after three tries.

PA Dad

Quote from: Almatrackster on November 26, 2016, 10:45:32 am
I don't know about this year's team, but I've always thought the key to stopping PA's offense is pressure on the QB because they WILL tear you up with those short, immediate routes.

Beating PA in a shootout has been done before...but not often.

I agree with you that pressure on the quarterback is usually the key to beating PA.  But that was not true last night.

Batesville had Hatcher on the run all night.  And the Batesville secondary did a good job in coverage, at least for the first 5 seconds.  What Batesville failed to do was to contain Hatcher.  Many times Hatcher was flushed out of the pocket but scrambled around for 7-10 seconds until he found an open receiver or he ran the ball for positive yardage.

If Wynne can pressure and contain Hatcher, they probably win.  But it takes both.

Pr8hd

November 26, 2016, 11:15:02 am #48 Last Edit: November 26, 2016, 11:27:41 am by Pr8hd
Quote from: Almatrackster on November 26, 2016, 10:45:32 am
I don't know about this year's team, but I've always thought the key to stopping PA's offense is pressure on the QB because they WILL tear you up with those short, immediate routes.

Beating PA in a shootout has been done before...but not often.

If you recover the onsides and halt the 4th down conversions, the QB (offense) has far less opportunity to hurt you. It's all about limiting their touches, but you don't do that solely with a time of possession philosophy because if they do get out on you by a few scores it's very hard to comeback for most teams. You don't want to give them freebie possessions and that is the whole point of the onsides- it's a turnover so you get more opportunity to score with those short passes. The 4th down attempts is also an extra opportunity.

It's as much of mental game with PA as a physical game. You have to beat Kelley at his own use of analytics. Hill and Wynne can do this. They have plenty of firepower and a good coach as well. Hill is a tough minded coach, many remember him under Peacock when he was at GW.

PA Dad

The offenses of both teams get most of the attention, but I think the defenses are the key to this game.

Both teams have very good defenses.  The most points allowed by Wynne is 41 against WC.  The most points allowed by PA is 37 against Salt Lake City East.

East runs an offense similar to Wynne's, relying primarily on the run.  East finished the year undefeated and ranked 22 nationally by MaxPreps.  East had, I think, 10 players going D-1.

I seriously doubt that PA gives up more points to Wynne than it did to East.  If that is correct, Wynne will have to hold PA to 37 points or less to win.  That is certainly possible.  East, Sylvan Hills, McClellan and Batesville all did it.  But, it is a difficult task.  And my guess is that the PA defense will not give up as many points to Wynne as it did to East.

That's why I'm predicting a relatively low scoring game.

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