Welcome to FearlessFriday.com! Today is Friday, April 28th, 2017.
FearlessFriday
Welcome to Fearless Friday
Welcome to FearlessFriday
Fearless Friday.
FearlessFriday
Arkansas only one stop for High School Sports!

Author Topic: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle  (Read 5730 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Almatrackster

  • Head Coach
  • **
  • Posts: 9,216
  • Karma: +675/-228
  • Gender: Male
Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« on: October 30, 2016, 01:22:45 am »
There will be a lot more added to this later, but I wanted to get all my work on here. These are predictions based off the methods that I THINK(keyword) the AAA uses for reclassifying purposes.

If they have question marks beside them, I have questions that I will put on here later about how to count their enrollment.

2A/1A just means that they are 2A in football because they play fooball, but 1A in everything else.

For private schools, I just simply used their last ADM enrollment until I find a better method.

7A. Cabot - 2416.67
7A. Springdale - 2357.33
7A. Springdale Har-Ber - 2357.00
7A. Conway - 2134.67
7A. Fayetteville - 2127.67
7A. Bryant - 2087.00
7A. Bentonville - 1972.83
7A. North Little Rock - 1960.00
7A. Little Rock Central - 1875.00
7A. Fort Smith Southside - 1661.00
7A. Fort Smith Northside - 1656.00
7A. Bentonville West - 1572.83
7A. Rogers - 1545.33
7A. Rogers Heritage - 1459.00
7A. Van Buren - 1393.67
7A. Little Rock Catholic/Mount St. Mary’s - 950.00

6A. Jonesboro - 1241.667
6A. West Memphis - 1184.333
6A. Benton - 1176.667
6A. Russellville - 1149.333
6A. Lake Hamilton - 1039.667
6A. El Dorado - 1030.000
6A. Siloam Springs - 1015.000
6A. Sylvan Hills - 1005.333
6A. Marion - 974.667
6A. Sheridan - 967.000
6A. Pine Bluff - 955.667
6A. Mountain Home - 933.667
6A. Little Rock Hall - 933.000
6A. Searcy - 920.667
6A. Jacksonville - 912.333
6A. Greenwood - 893.333

5A. Texarkana - 880.000
5A. Little Rock Parkview - 853.333
5A. Maumelle - 814.333
5A. Greene County Tech - 810.000
5A. Greenbrier - 809.000
5A. Hot Springs Lakeside - 792.000
5A. Alma - 792.000
5A. Hot Springs - 753.000
5A. Vilonia - 751.333
5A. Beebe - 748.333
5A. Little Rock Fair - 733.667
5A. White Hall - 711.000
5A. Nettleton - 707.000
5A. Watson Chapel - 682.667
5A. Paragould - 669.333
5A. Magnolia - 668.000
5A. Batesville - 660.667
5A. Little Rock McClellan - 659.667
5A. Wynne - 623.667
5A. Valley View - 603.000
5A. Harrison - 602.000
5A. Clarksville - 587.333
5A. Forrest City - 586.667
5A. Farmington - 550.667
5A. Hope - 543.667
5A. Camden Fairview - 542.667
5A. Morrilton - 520.667
5A. Huntsville - 519.000
5A. DeQueen - 511.667
5A. Blytheville - 506.333
5A. Little Rock Christian - 410.000
5A. Pulaski Academy - 301.000


4A. Little Rock Mills - 497.333 - Football 1
4A. Monticello - 495.333 - Football 2
4A. Berryville - 486.667 - Football 3
4A. Prairie Grove - 469.000 - Football 4
4A. Gravette - 464.000 - Football 5
4A. Pea Ridge - 456.000??? - Football 6
4A. Brookland - 453.333 - Football 7
4A. Hamburg - 451.667 - Football 8
4A. Pocahontas - 446.333 - Football 9
4A. Dardanelle - 440.333 - Football 10
4A. Jonesboro Westside - 429.333 - Football 11
4A. Robinson - 425.333 - Football 12
4A. Lonoke - 424.000 - Football 13
4A. Malvern - 423.333 - Football 14
4A. Nashville - 418.333 - Football 15
4A. Arkadelphia - 416.000 - Football 16
4A. Bauxite - 412.667 - Football 17
4A. Ozark - 408.000 - Football 18
4A. Heber Springs - 406.667 - Football 19
4A. Mena - 391.000 - Football 20
4A. Batesville Southside - 390.667 - Football 21
4A. Pottsville - 387.000 - Football 22
4A. Crossett - 387.000 - Football 23
4A. eStem - 381.000 - Basketball 1
4A. Stuttgart - 375.000 - Football 24
4A. Star City - 365.667 - Football 25
4A. Highland - 364.667 - Football 26
4A. Warren - 360.667 - Football 27
4A. Gentry - 351.667 - Football 28
4A. Dover - 347.333 - Football 29
4A. Trumann - 345.667 - Football 30
4A. Waldron - 343.667 - Football 31
4A. Fountain Lake - 341.667 - Football 32
4A. West Helena Central - 339.000 - Football 33
4A. Dumas - 334.333 - Football 34
4A. Ashdown - 326.000 - Football 35
4A. Bald Knob - 323.667 - Football 36
4A. Gosnell - 318.000 - Football 37
4A. DeWitt - 308.000 - Football 38
4A. Riverview - 304.333 - Football 39
4A. Lincoln - 304.333 - Football 40
4A. Elkins - 304.333 - Football 41
4A. Rivercrest - 300.000 - Football 42
4A. Cave City - 296.000 - Football 43
4A. Green Forest - 295.000 - Football 44
4A. Subiaco Academy - 242.667 - Football 45
4A. Shiloh Christian - 237.000 - Football 46
4A. Central Arkansas Christian - 204.667 - Football 47
4A. Baptist Prep - 199.000 - Football 48


3A. Haskell Harmony Grove - 293.667 - Football 1
3A. Smackover - 290.000??? - Football 2
3A. Booneville - 290.000 - Football 3
3A. Clinton - 288.667 - Football 4
3A. Harrisburg - 288.000 - Football 5
3A. Lamar - 285.667 - Football 6
3A. Mayflower - 283.000 - Football 7
3A. Genoa Central - 281.333 - Football 8
3A. Bergman - 280.667 - Basketball 1
3A. Pine Bluff Dollarway - 279.333 - Football 9
3A. West Fork - 271.667 - Football 10
3A. Mountain View - 269.333 - Football 11
3A. Paris - 267.000 - Football 12
3A. Lisa Academy - 267.000 - Basketball 2
3A. Osceola - 265.667 - Football 13
3A. Newport - 258.000 - Football 14
3A. Jacksonville Lighthouse - 254.500 - Basketball 3
3A. Manila - 249.667 - Football 15
3A. Fouke - 248.667 - Football 16
3A. McGehee - 247.333 - Football 17
3A. Drew Central - 243.000 - Football 18
3A. Perryville - 241.667 - Football 19
3A. Glen Rose - 241.000 - Football 20
3A. Bismarck - 238.667 - Football 21
3A. Corning - 231.333 - Football 22
3A. Atkins - 228.000 - Football 23
3A. Piggott - 223.667 - Football 24
3A. Centerpoint - 223.667 - Football 25
3A. Walnut Ridge - 221.333 - Football 26
3A. Cedarville - 219.667 - Football 27
3A. Cedar Ridge - 218.667 - Football 28
3A. Lake Village - 217.333 - Football 29
3A. Prescott - 216.000 - Football 30
3A. Valley Springs - 213.000 - Basketball 4
3A. Greenland - 212.667 - Football 31
3A. Rose Bud - 212.333 - Football 32
3A. Jessieville - 212.333 - Football 33
3A. Hoxie - 212.000 - Football 34
3A. Charleston - 211.000 - Football 35
3A. Junction City - 208.000??? - Football 36
3A. Marshall - 207.333 - Football 37
3A. Palestine-Wheatley - 207.000 - Football 38
3A. Rison - 206.333 - Football 39
3A. Two Rivers - 205.667 - Football 40
3A. Mansfield - 205.667 - Football 41
3A. Tuckerman - 204.667 - Basketball 5
3A. Cossatot River - 203.000 - Basketball 6
3A. KIPP: Delta - 202.000 - Basketball 7
3A. Camden Harmony Grove - 201.000 - Football 42
3A. Danville - 201.000 - Football 43
3A. Sloan-Hendrix - 195.333 - Basketball 8
3A. Barton - 194.333 - Football 44
3A. Melbourne - 193.667 - Football 45
3A. Riverside - 193.667 - Basketball 9
3A. Horatio - 190.333 - Football 46
3A. Episcopal Collegiate - 167.667 - Football 47
3A. Harding Academy - 166.000 - Football 48


2A. Yellville-Summit - 189.667 - Football 1
2A. Marianna Lee - 189.333 - Football 2
2A. Haas Hall - 187.667
2A. Marmaduke - 183.667
2A. Pangburn - 182.333
2A. Lavaca - 181.333 - Football 3
2A. England - 180.667 - Football 4
2A. Salem - 179.333 - Football 5
2A. Parkers Chapel - 178.667 - Football 6
2A. Arkansas Arts Academy - 178.000
2A. Buffalo Island Central - 176.333
2A. East Poinsett County - 175.333 - Football 7
2A. Gurdon - 174.000 - Football 8
2A. Fordyce - 173.000 - Football 9
2A. Flippin - 172.000
2A. Magnet Cove - 171.333 - Football 10
2A. Mountainburg - 169.000 - Football 11
2A. Quitman - 168.000 - Football 12
2A. White County Central - 166.333
2A. Carlisle - 165.667 - Football 13
2A. Earle - 162.333 - Football 14
2A. Hackett - 156.000 - Football 15
2A. Hazen - 154.333 - Football 16
2A. Haas Hall Bentonville - 154.000
2A. Eureka Springs - 153.667
2A. Johnson County Westside - 151.667 - Football 17
2A. Murfreesboro - 151.667 - Football 18
2A. Hector - 151.333 - Football 19
2A. Poyen - 150.333 - Football 20
2A. Cotter - 148.333
2A. Bigelow - 148.000 - Football 21
2A. McCrory - 145.000 - Football 22
2A. Lafayette County - 144.333 - Football 23
2A. Spring Hill - 143.667 - Football 24
2A. Cross County - 143.000 - Football 25
2A. Cutter Morning Star - 141.667 - Football 26
2A. Rector - 135.000 - Football 27
2A. Marked Tree - 134.000 - Football 28
2A. South Side Bee Branch - 133.000
2A. Magazine - 132.667 - Football 29
2A. Des Arc - 131.667 - Football 30
2A. Maumelle Charter - 131.000
2A. Bay - 127.667
2A. Hampton - 127.000 - Football 31
2A. Dierks - 127.000 - Football 32
2A. Woodlawn - 126.333 - Football 33
2A. Conway Christian - 93.667 - Football 34
2A. St. Joseph - 85.333

2A/1A. Clarendon - 126.000 - Football 35
2A/1A. Bearden - 126.000 - Football 36
2A/1A. Mount Ida - 121.667 - Football 37
2A/1A. Foreman - 120.333 - Football 38
1A. Nemo Vista - 119.667
1A. Acorn - 119.333
2A/1A. Decatur - 118.667 - Football 39
2A/1A. Mountain Pine - 118.000 - Football 40
1A. Caddo Hills - 118.000
1A. Jasper - 117.333
1A. Ouachita - 117.000
1A. County Line - 114.333
2A/1A. Brinkley - 114.333 - Football 41
1A. Mount Vernon-Enola - 113.333
1A. Izard County - 113.000
1A. Mammoth Spring - 112.333
1A. Alpena - 112.333
1A. Norfork - 111.667
1A. Blevins - 110.333
2A/1A. Midland - 110.000 - Football 42
1A. Armorel - 108.667
1A. West Side, GF - 108.000
1A. Maynard - 105.333
2A/1A. Western Yell County - 102.667 - Football 43
1A. Nevada - 102.000
1A. Concord - 102.000
2A/1A. KIPP: Blytheville - 100.667 - Football 44
1A. Lisa Academy - NLR - 99.667
1A. Scranton - 99.000
1A. Hillcrest - 98.333
1A. Shirley - 97.000
1A. Calico Rock - 95.333
1A. Bradford - 94.333
1A. Viola - 92.000
1A. Omaha - 92.000
1A. Guy-Perkins - 90.333
2A/1A. Mineral Springs - 89.333 - Football 45
2A/1A. Marvell-Elaine - 88.333 - Football 46
1A. Kirby - 88.333
2A/1A. Augusta - 87.667 - Football 47
1A. Wonderview - 87.333
1A. Lead Hill - 87.333
2A/1A. Hermitage - 87.333 - Football 48
1A. Taylor - 79.667
1A. Bradley - 77.000
1A. Dermott - 76.667
2A/1A. Strong - 75.667 - Football 49
1A. Crowleys Ridge Academy - 74.333
1A. Hartford - 72.000
1A. Mulberry - 70.000
1A. Western Grove - 68.333
1A. Abundant Life - 62.667
1A. Emerson - 62.000
1A. Trinity Christian - 60.000
1A. Kingston - 57.000
1A. St. Paul - 56.667
1A. Sacred Heart - 54.667
1A. Deer - 54.000
1A. Oden - 53.667
1A. Northwest Arkansas Classical Academy - 51.333
1A. Ridgefield - 50.667
1A. St. Joe - 48.667
1A. Rural Special - 48.667
1A. Bruno-Pyatt - 48.000
1A. Timbo - 45.667
1A. Oark - 45.333
1A. Umpire - 41.333
1A. Sparkman - 31.000
1A. Mount Judea - 29.333
1A. Arkansas School for the Blind - 18.000
« Last Edit: February 19, 2017, 05:03:12 pm by Almatrackster »

Offline Almatrackster

  • Head Coach
  • **
  • Posts: 9,216
  • Karma: +675/-228
  • Gender: Male
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2016, 01:23:48 am »
Questions from me:

For Bentonville and Bentonville West...I used the ADMs of Bentonville for the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 school years and halved them for BW West...but do I need to use those same half ADMs for Bentonville for those years?

For Jacksonville, I wasn't exactly sure what to do for the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 ADMs. I used the North Pulaski and Jacksonville combined ADMs for those two years, but not sure I should have done that.

Do the Pea Ridge Manufacturing and Business school students play for Pea Ridge in athletics and if so, are those numbers counted against Pea Ridge? I went ahead and counted them for Pea Ridge, but I may be wrong here.

Should I use Norphlet + Smackover's ADMs for the 2014-2015 school year? This one is big because it could effect the classifications.

On the Junction City matter, can someone explain where their extra numbers come from? From what I can tell it comes for a Northeaster Claiborne Charter school in Louisiana? If you just go by their ADMs, then Junction City is 2A still, but that was true for last cycle, too. I'm not sure where the AAA gets the extra numbers for Junction City so I just added about 35 "students" to their ADM average since that's what happened last cycle.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 12:29:25 pm by Almatrackster »

Offline Almatrackster

  • Head Coach
  • **
  • Posts: 9,216
  • Karma: +675/-228
  • Gender: Male
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2016, 01:24:23 am »
Saved

Offline x14113

  • Fearless Friday Historian
  • Assistant Coach
  • *****
  • Posts: 3,565
  • Karma: +137/-56
  • Gender: Male
  • Desperately Seeking Pianos to Tune...
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2016, 01:44:46 am »
Duuude, this looks eerily similar to what I've been working on.

Did you hack my phone and steal my spreadsheets? :P

Offline beach bum

  • Assistant Coach
  • *
  • Posts: 4,247
  • Karma: +329/-419
  • Gender: Male
  • Fearless Friday--The Online Home of Arkansas High School Sports!
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2016, 08:42:48 am »
Top notch work! We really all have to keep an eye on.... let's say the top 5 and bottom 5 of each of those and see if they swing up or down. There could be some really interesting ones for sure!

Offline Almatrackster

  • Head Coach
  • **
  • Posts: 9,216
  • Karma: +675/-228
  • Gender: Male
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2016, 10:09:12 am »
Duuude, this looks eerily similar to what I've been working on.

Did you hack my phone and steal my spreadsheets? :P

Ha, no. Just doing the same thing I did last cycle.

Offline Almatrackster

  • Head Coach
  • **
  • Posts: 9,216
  • Karma: +675/-228
  • Gender: Male
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2016, 12:35:26 pm »
Top notch work! We really all have to keep an eye on.... let's say the top 5 and bottom 5 of each of those and see if they swing up or down. There could be some really interesting ones for sure!

Sylvan Hills looks like they will be 6A for sure. Texarkana looks like they could very well drop down to 5A.

Huntsville looks like they will be jumping back up to 5A, pushing Little Rock Mills to 4A.

Green Forest, Rivercrest, and Elkins could jump up to 4A...pushing Booneville, Harrisburg, and Dollarway to 3A.

Danville and Sloan-Hendrix jumping up to 3A....Yellville dropping to 2A.


Offline Wonderdog

  • Starter
  • ****
  • Posts: 1,718
  • Karma: +84/-91
  • Gender: Male
  • Friday's in the fall....PRICELESS
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2016, 12:47:59 pm »
Great work Alamtrackster. Thanks for posting this. I enjoy keeping up with the reclassification and how things might change. Texarkana to 5A would be very interesting, as well as Green Forrest and Elkins moving to 4A. the 1-3A conference has some extensive travel as it is for some conference games, it will be interesting to see if it gets even worse with the loss of GF, YS and Elkins

Offline beach bum

  • Assistant Coach
  • *
  • Posts: 4,247
  • Karma: +329/-419
  • Gender: Male
  • Fearless Friday--The Online Home of Arkansas High School Sports!
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2016, 01:29:13 pm »
The 1-4A in this format will be Lincoln, Prairie Grove, Shiloh Christian, Gentry, Gravette, Pea Ridge, Berryville, and Green Forest.

-Poor Green Forest will get pummeled in 4A taking Huntsville's spot as they move to 5A

-Elkins will be super close logistically to teams like Shiloh Christian, Prairie Grove, and Lincoln and would make sense in the 1-4A but they will just slide into West Fork's spot in the 4-4A as West Fork drops to 3A again. Elkins is a better fit in the 1-4A but they will not split Berryville and Green Forest up to do so.

Offline beach bum

  • Assistant Coach
  • *
  • Posts: 4,247
  • Karma: +329/-419
  • Gender: Male
  • Fearless Friday--The Online Home of Arkansas High School Sports!
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2016, 01:37:29 pm »
Also, if Booneville does indeed go back to 3A with the young group they have LOOK OUT 3A!

Offline WPWells

  • Formerly 12th Man
  • Hall of Famer
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,697
  • Karma: +1193/-2408
  • Be strong in The Lord and never give up hope
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2016, 03:23:45 pm »
Do you have spreadsheets to accompany this work? I'd love to see them

Online ricepig

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 17,429
  • Karma: +625/-666
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2016, 04:21:29 pm »
I guess in 6A that PB would slide back to the West, and Sylvan Hills would come to the East?? Always travel problems with conferences spread out across the state.

Offline Wonderdog

  • Starter
  • ****
  • Posts: 1,718
  • Karma: +84/-91
  • Gender: Male
  • Friday's in the fall....PRICELESS
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2016, 04:21:50 pm »
Based off of your numbers I would think something like this would be best, even though a few will always get the short end of the stick.

7A West
Bentonville
Bentonville West
Rogers
Rogers Heritage
Springdale
Springdale Har-Ber
Fayetteville
Van Buren


7A Central
Fort Smith Northside
Fort Smith Southside
North Little Rock
Cabot
Little Rock Central
Little Rock Catholic
Conway
Bryant


6A East
Sylvan Hills
Pine Bluff
Marion
West Memphis
Jonesboro
Mountain Home
Searcy
Jacksonville


6A West
Little Rock Hall
Greenwood
Benton
El Dorado
Siloam Springs
Sheridan
Lake Hamilton
Russellville






5A Central
Maumelle
White Hall
Pulaski Academy
Little Rock Christian
Little Rock Parkview
Beebe
Little Rock McClellan
JA Fair


5A East
Batesville
Blytheville
Wynne
Forrest City
Nettelton
Valley View
Greene County Tech
Paragould


5A South
Texarkana
Watson Chapel
Hot Springs
Hot Springs Lakeside
Magnolia
De Queen
Camden Fairview
Hope


5A West
Huntsville
Farmington
Alma
Harrison
Clarksville
Morrilton
Greenbrier
Vilonia






1-4A
Green Forest
Prairie Grove
Pea Ridge
Shiloh Christian
Berryville
Gravette
Gentry
Lincoln


2-4A
Stuttgart
Batesville Southside
Heber Springs
Lonoke
Riverview
Bald Knob
West Helena
Baptist Prep


3-4A
Gosnell
Brookland
Jonesboro Westside
Rivercrest
Pocahontas
Highland
Cave City
Trumann


4-4A
Elkins
Central Arkansas Christian
Ozark
Dover
Pottsville
Dardanelle
Waldron
Subiaco Academy




7-4A
Ashdown
Arkadelphia
Malvern
Nashville
Bauxite
Fountain Lake
Mena
Joe T. Robinson


8-4A
Crossett
Star City
Hamburg
Dumas
Monticello
Warren
Little Rock Mills
Dewitt





1-3A
Greenland
West Fork
Cedarville
Marshall
Clinton
Melbourne
Mountain View
Lamar

2-3A
Barton
Palestine-Wheatley
Cedar Ridge
Rose Bud
Haskell Harmony Grove
Harding Academy
Mayflower
Episcopal Collegiate


3-3A
Piggott
Corning
Manila
Osceola
Hoxie
Walnut Ridge
Newport
Harrisburg


4-3A
Charleston
Atkins
Booneville
Two Rivers
Mansfield
Danville
Paris
Perryville






5-3A
Fouke
Genoa Central
Prescott
Bismarck
Glen Rose
Jessieville
Centerpoint
Horatio


6-3A
Rison
McGehee
Smackover
Lake Village
Camden Harmony Grove
Dollarway
Junction City
Drew Central



3-2A
Cross County
Salem
Rector
East Poinsett County
Earle
Midland
Marked Tree
KIPP: Blytheville


4-2A
Decatur
Yellville-Summit
Mountainburg
Johnson County Westside
J. D. Leftwich
Western Yell County
Lavaca
Hackett


5-2A
England
Hector
Quitman
Cutter Morning Star
Magnet Cove
Conway Christian
Poyen
Bigelow


6-2A
Marianna
Clarendon
Marvell-Elaine
Brinkley
Hazen
Carlisle
Des Arc
Augusta
McCrory


7-2A
Gurdon
Spring Hill
Dierks
Foreman
Mount Ida
Mountain Pine
Murfreesboro
Mineral Springs


8-2A
Strong
Parkers Chapel
Hermitage
Hampton
Bearden
Woodlawn
Fordyce
Lafayette County
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 04:29:57 pm by Wonderdog »

Offline Almatrackster

  • Head Coach
  • **
  • Posts: 9,216
  • Karma: +675/-228
  • Gender: Male
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2016, 06:10:43 pm »
Great stuff, Wonderdog +1. I'll have to look at it more closely later and see if I think the same as you.

Fred Bird, I don't have a formal spreadsheet right now, but I am going to start putting one together and I'll share it. It will be a good way to double check my work.

I'm hoping x14113 still shares his numbers so we can cross check each other.

Online sevenof400

  • Fearless Friday Moderator
  • Head Coach
  • *****
  • Posts: 8,629
  • Karma: +594/-579
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2016, 06:49:20 pm »
Huntsville looks like they will be jumping back up to 5A, pushing Little Rock Mills to 4A.

That development will not be welcome in Huntsville.  Many folks there said there were a much better fit in / at 4A for travel purposes.  The previous move to 5A was not a happy one so they said.   

Online sevenof400

  • Fearless Friday Moderator
  • Head Coach
  • *****
  • Posts: 8,629
  • Karma: +594/-579
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2016, 06:52:23 pm »
On a side note, let's hope the blended conference arrangement ends after this year. 

Online ricepig

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 17,429
  • Karma: +625/-666
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2016, 06:54:29 pm »
On a side note, let's hope the blended conference arrangement ends after this year.

I figure it will go for the full cycle.

Offline beach bum

  • Assistant Coach
  • *
  • Posts: 4,247
  • Karma: +329/-419
  • Gender: Male
  • Fearless Friday--The Online Home of Arkansas High School Sports!
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2016, 07:25:08 pm »
On a side note, let's hope the blended conference arrangement ends after this year.

This....please!

Offline beach bum

  • Assistant Coach
  • *
  • Posts: 4,247
  • Karma: +329/-419
  • Gender: Male
  • Fearless Friday--The Online Home of Arkansas High School Sports!
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2016, 07:27:35 pm »
That development will not be welcome in Huntsville.  Many folks there said there were a much better fit in / at 4A for travel purposes.  The previous move to 5A was not a happy one so they said.

The stuff I saw on social media was hilarious when Madison County got its first stop light about 6 months ago I think? You would have thought there was a paranoia reigning through Huntsville that the city slickers were coming to invade! But yes, they are not suited for 5A football whatsoever. In basketball, they add to an already deep 5A West.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 07:29:21 pm by beach bum »

Offline x14113

  • Fearless Friday Historian
  • Assistant Coach
  • *****
  • Posts: 3,565
  • Karma: +137/-56
  • Gender: Male
  • Desperately Seeking Pianos to Tune...
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2016, 08:56:20 pm »
That development will not be welcome in Huntsville.  Many folks there said there were a much better fit in / at 4A for travel purposes.  The previous move to 5A was not a happy one so they said.

Maybe they should send their kids elsewhere?

Like, St, Paul? That's still in district.

And hey, maybe they could get some Saints football back up and rolling again while they're at it? They might not do too bad in the 2A-4...

Offline beach bum

  • Assistant Coach
  • *
  • Posts: 4,247
  • Karma: +329/-419
  • Gender: Male
  • Fearless Friday--The Online Home of Arkansas High School Sports!
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2016, 09:13:20 pm »
Maybe they should send their kids elsewhere?

Like, St, Paul? That's still in district.

And hey, maybe they could get some Saints football back up and rolling again while they're at it? They might not do too bad in the 2A-4...

That would be a funny game between them and Mountainburg.... Not very far as the crow flies but would take forever to travel around the White Rock area. Would either have to go majorly north or south to get around those mountains! Nothing but dirt roads once you get off 16 or 23.

Offline x14113

  • Fearless Friday Historian
  • Assistant Coach
  • *****
  • Posts: 3,565
  • Karma: +137/-56
  • Gender: Male
  • Desperately Seeking Pianos to Tune...
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2016, 09:28:45 pm »
I'm hoping x14113 still shares his numbers so we can cross check each other.

I'll tell you right now that most of the numbers are identical, so I'll just share the notable differences as I compare the lists.

For now, I'll opine on your questions:

For Bentonville and Bentonville West...I used the ADMs of Bentonville for the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 school years and halved them for BW West...but do I need to use those same half ADMs for Bentonville for those years?

Yes. That looks to be standard AAA procedure regarding such circumstances.

For Jacksonville, I wasn't exactly sure what to do for the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 ADMs. I used the North Pulaski and Jacksonville combined ADMs for those two years, but not sure I should have done that.

Since they have combined into one school, so will their ADMs. Again, standard procedure.

Do the Pea Ridge Manufacturing and Business school students play for Pea Ridge in athletics and if so, are those numbers counted against Pea Ridge? I went ahead and counted them for Pea Ridge, but I may be wrong here.

Seeing how A) their #s for the grade affected are similar between the two, and B) they seem to be roughly half of PRHS's lower two grades, I suspect that MB is an extension of the HS in practice, and its #s should therefore count.

There is precedence for such a situation, as both Ozark and Hot Springs include #'s from outside facilities.

Should I use Norphlet + Smackover's ADMs for the 2014-2015 school year? This one is big because it could effect the classifications.


Yes, you should. Same deal as with Jax-NP.

On the Junction City matter, can someone explain where their extra numbers come from? From what I can tell it comes for a Northeaster Claiborne Charter school in Louisiana? If you just go by their ADMs, then Junction City is 2A still, but that was true for last cycle, too. I'm not sure where the AAA gets the extra numbers for Junction City so I just added about 35 "students" to their ADM average since that's what happened last cycle.

This is a strange one. It's well known that JC enrolls LA kids, but said kids are never reported to ADE. Something tells me that there is extra correspondence between JC and the AAA that makes sure the LA kids do get counted for accurate classing.

As for private schools...this drives me nuts. The ANSAA does not seem to release detailed enrollment info to the public, even though they send it to the AAA for their schools to be classed. This is the one thing that most limits the reliability of our predictions, because you never know how stable a private school's enrollment actually is. Take CAC, for instance: They were in 5A until 2012, yet they are now very close to dropping to 3A.

Offline B.G.

  • Fearless Friday Administrator
  • Legend
  • *****
  • Posts: 15,233
  • Karma: +1509/-413
  • Gender: Male
  • I speak for me, myself and I.
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2016, 09:45:23 pm »
A little info.

Springdale has a 3rd high school known as "School of Innovation" that doesn't have full blown athletics.  I'm unsure how they count it.  I expect most of the kids that want top lay sports are participating at Old Springdale and not HB.

Additionally, the local Catholic diocese is fundraising to offer a full blown Catholic high school in NWA.  Currently, there are k-8th ones in Fay and Benton Co. I expect that by 2019.

Bentonville has announced plans for a 3rd high school by 2025.  I suspect it will be a full blown school with all athletics.

Haas Hall Academy has plans to open a 3rd and 4th school in Rogers and Springdale to go along with the ones in Fay and Bentonville.  The one in Fay has been competing in some sports(tennis, hoops, track) for a few years.  These are charter schools that are making a mark with their academics.

The New School(real name) is located in north Fayetteville and has been around 20 years.  But recently they have announced plans to expand up through 12th grade.  They have already hired an AD.  I expect them to field teams in every sport besides football. I think they are 2 years from expansion.

All that's to say, NWA will be a revolving door.  Part of the reason Fayetteville doesn't really grow is they are landlocked but now they are faced with two (Haas, New School) full blown high schools within their borders.  Seemingly we hear of a new charter/private school of some nature every 6 months.

There are going to be a lot of moving parts as these schools open.

You can actually envision a day when FHS isn't even in the 7A-West!  ::)

There will be a need for some out of the box thinking and flexibility with conference sizes across the board.  Obviously each school can create a ripple effect.

Offline x14113

  • Fearless Friday Historian
  • Assistant Coach
  • *****
  • Posts: 3,565
  • Karma: +137/-56
  • Gender: Male
  • Desperately Seeking Pianos to Tune...
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2016, 10:48:05 pm »
Now, the contrasts...

I highly suspect they may be due to nuances regarding data collection, but we'll cross that bridge eventually.

To make it easier for app users to read, I will not set up a table.


Cabot
AT: 2292.67
x14: 2416.67

NLR
AT: 1931.33
x14: 1960

Jonesboro
AT: 1241.67
x14: 1258.33

West Memphis
AT: 1131.33
x14: 1184.33

Greenwood
AT: 892.67
x14: 893.33

Texarkana
AT: 825.67
x14: 887

Hot Springs
AT: 734.67
x14: 753

Beebe
AT: 731.67
x14: 748.33

Nettleton
AT: 706.67
x14: 707

Batesville
AT: 659
x14: 660.67

LR McClellan
AT: 635
x14: 659.87

Hope
AT: 542.67
x14: 543.67

Jonesboro Westside
AT: 429.33
x14: 429

Bauxite
AT: 388.67
x14: 412.67

Southside BV
AT: 390.67
x14: 391

Pottsville
AT: 387
x14: 386.33

Gosnell
AT: 318
x14: 318.33

Lafayette Co.
AT: 141.67
x14: 144.33

Mt. Ida
AT: 121.67
x14: 122

Offline Almatrackster

  • Head Coach
  • **
  • Posts: 9,216
  • Karma: +675/-228
  • Gender: Male
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2016, 11:48:27 pm »
Awesome, thanks x14. I'll cross check and double check mine tomorrow to see if I can see where my mistakes might be and then see if we can come to a common ground.

Offline Almatrackster

  • Head Coach
  • **
  • Posts: 9,216
  • Karma: +675/-228
  • Gender: Male
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #25 on: October 31, 2016, 10:48:04 pm »
Now, the contrasts...

I highly suspect they may be due to nuances regarding data collection, but we'll cross that bridge eventually.

To make it easier for app users to read, I will not set up a table.

Jonesboro
AT: 1241.67
x14: 1258.33

Texarkana
AT: 825.67
x14: 887

Jonesboro Westside
AT: 429.33
x14: 429

Southside BV
AT: 390.67
x14: 391

Pottsville
AT: 387
x14: 386.33

Gosnell
AT: 318
x14: 318.33

Mt. Ida
AT: 121.67
x14: 122

I will remove the schools off this list once I can match up with x14.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2016, 06:43:37 pm by Almatrackster »

Offline Almatrackster

  • Head Coach
  • **
  • Posts: 9,216
  • Karma: +675/-228
  • Gender: Male
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #26 on: November 01, 2016, 06:50:39 pm »
Ok, x14, I cross checked all the schools you listed and was able to come to the common ground for most of them and changed that, but the ones I left above, I was not able to. Jonesboro and Texarkana probably take more of an explanation, but the rest, the differences are so small, that I wonder if perhaps you could have made a mistake? (I know that's a bit presumptuous), but I've double checked my numbers on those and can't get what you get.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2016, 06:52:30 pm by Almatrackster »

Offline x14113

  • Fearless Friday Historian
  • Assistant Coach
  • *****
  • Posts: 3,565
  • Karma: +137/-56
  • Gender: Male
  • Desperately Seeking Pianos to Tune...
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #27 on: November 01, 2016, 10:07:02 pm »
No worries--I've been wanting to double-check my end in greater detail, so I'll get on it ASAP.

Methodology disclosure: For districts that have only one HS that plays sports, I have counted the numbers applicable for the entire district, the logic being that a student in a "specialty campus" would have to play through said school anyway. I'm currently inspecting the schools within both Jonesboro and Texarkana to see if this is a factor with our respective counts.

As for the smaller contrasts, we're talking a difference of at most two students between them, so a margin of error is very likely. Again, I'll double-check my math to see if I can resolve what's left.

Online ricepig

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 17,429
  • Karma: +625/-666
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #28 on: November 02, 2016, 07:19:17 am »
No worries--I've been wanting to double-check my end in greater detail, so I'll get on it ASAP.

Methodology disclosure: For districts that have only one HS that plays sports, I have counted the numbers applicable for the entire district, the logic being that a student in a "specialty campus" would have to play through said school anyway. I'm currently inspecting the schools within both Jonesboro and Texarkana to see if this is a factor with our respective counts.

As for the smaller contrasts, we're talking a difference of at most two students between them, so a margin of error is very likely. Again, I'll double-check my math to see if I can resolve what's left.

What "specialty campus" does Jonesboro have? There's the NEA Career and Tech Center on the same campus, but they're still students from their home district.

Offline OLDSCHOOL82

  • Assistant Coach
  • *
  • Posts: 3,270
  • Karma: +752/-347
  • Gender: Male
  • Carpe Diem !
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #29 on: December 06, 2016, 10:36:44 pm »
.

Online OB11

  • Fearless Friday Moderator
  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1,423
  • Karma: +43/-36
  • Gender: Male
  • 6+4+3=2
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #30 on: December 07, 2016, 09:57:03 am »
What "specialty campus" does Jonesboro have? There's the NEA Career and Tech Center on the same campus, but they're still students from their home district.

Maybe he's talking about Success?  It's operated through Jonesboro but other districts can send students there as well.  I don't think the enrollment there goes into classification numbers.  Or I wouldn't think so anyway.

Offline New Dawg

  • Water Boy
  • *
  • Posts: 21
  • Karma: +3/-2
  • Fearless Friday--The Online Home of Arkansas High School Sports!
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #31 on: December 07, 2016, 10:05:26 am »
All of the work is pretty impressive.

Offline 1-Adam-12

  • Assistant Coach
  • *
  • Posts: 3,293
  • Karma: +106/-50
  • Gender: Male
  • State Champs 1986, 2000, 2013
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #32 on: December 07, 2016, 05:57:02 pm »
Fort Smith is also getting a Catholic high school.  It's slated to open in 2018 with just 10th graders and be a full 10-12 high school by 2020.  Should not affect NS/SS enrollment much, just thought I'd throw that out there.

Online HorseFeathers

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 27,387
  • Karma: +1073/-1478
  • Gender: Male
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #33 on: December 07, 2016, 06:16:47 pm »
Fort Smith is also getting a Catholic high school.  It's slated to open in 2018 with just 10th graders and be a full 10-12 high school by 2020.  Should not affect NS/SS enrollment much, just thought I'd throw that out there.

How's it going to affect subiaco?

Offline 1-Adam-12

  • Assistant Coach
  • *
  • Posts: 3,293
  • Karma: +106/-50
  • Gender: Male
  • State Champs 1986, 2000, 2013
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #34 on: December 07, 2016, 08:10:06 pm »
I don't think they get a lot from the immediate FS area.  Though, if some do go there and then later decide to attend FS Catholic, it could send the Trojans packing to 3A.

Offline bleudog

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 16,694
  • Karma: +856/-331
  • Gender: Male
  • 11/02/06: Never give up, never give out.
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #35 on: December 07, 2016, 08:23:22 pm »
Questions from me:

On the Junction City matter, can someone explain where their extra numbers come from? From what I can tell it comes for a Northeaster Claiborne Charter school in Louisiana? If you just go by their ADMs, then Junction City is 2A still, but that was true for last cycle, too. I'm not sure where the AAA gets the extra numbers for Junction City so I just added about 35 "students" to their ADM average since that's what happened last cycle.

Prior to the 2014-2015 school year, the data listed on the ADE website was only the in-state students total.  The Louisiana kids in JC numbers have always been submitted to ADE but under a different code (as out-of-state students) as they do not quality for Arkansas funding.  This separate out-of-state total has always been available to AAA and would be used to move JC up in athletic classification if warranted by the combined totals of the two groups.

Beginning with the 2014-2015 school year, the in-state and out-of-state totals were combined on the ADE site reports.  Funding is still only based on in-state students but apparently the software was patched to have the publicly available number reflect the actual number of total students enrolled.

My personal opinion is, for the most recent cycle, the AAA continued to merge the two databases when for two of the three years that was no longer necessary.  This resulted in the out-of-state students being counted twice in those two years.

JC 2012-2013

JC 2013-2014

JC 2014-2015

JC 2015-2016

JC 2016-2017

Here are the TOTAL high school (7th-12th) numbers as presented in the school's report to the public:

« Last Edit: December 18, 2016, 03:28:18 pm by bleudog »

Offline wildcat_x-mgr

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 2,179
  • Karma: +138/-68
  • Gender: Male
  • On the rise!
    • Facebook
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #36 on: December 09, 2016, 10:09:16 pm »
 :o :o :o Rison returning to 3A while Fordyce drops all the way to 2A? It's a world gone mad! MAD, I tell you!

Seriously though, how sure is all this? Is what's shown here likely to be the real deal? Not doubting your work, just genuinely asking.

That said, I'm VERY interested to see Rison vs. Dollarway when the time comes! What a fun match-up that could be!

Offline Grizzlyfan

  • Bench Warmer
  • **
  • Posts: 330
  • Karma: +15/-27
  • Fearless Friday--The Online Home of Arkansas High School Sports!
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #37 on: December 12, 2016, 09:40:36 am »
Do you foresee any splits in the top 8 7A teams in the near future?

Offline bigchief72455

  • 2nd String
  • ***
  • Posts: 959
  • Karma: +22/-115
  • Gender: Male
  • Fearless Friday--The Online Home of Arkansas High School Sports!
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #38 on: December 12, 2016, 11:29:05 am »
If Brookland keeps seeing the trend of numbers they are having they will soon be a 5A school. Blytheville may become a 4A school. With those two moves happening the 3-4A may get interesting indeed.

Offline Almatrackster

  • Head Coach
  • **
  • Posts: 9,216
  • Karma: +675/-228
  • Gender: Male
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #39 on: December 15, 2016, 11:45:36 am »
:o :o :o Rison returning to 3A while Fordyce drops all the way to 2A? It's a world gone mad! MAD, I tell you!

Seriously though, how sure is all this? Is what's shown here likely to be the real deal? Not doubting your work, just genuinely asking.

That said, I'm VERY interested to see Rison vs. Dollarway when the time comes! What a fun match-up that could be!

I did this for the last cycle and the upper classifications were dead on. Some of the lower classifications weren't exact but most big changes were reflected. With x1 cross checking and me adjusting some of my calculation methods, I feel confident that most of this will be correct.

Offline wildcat_x-mgr

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 2,179
  • Karma: +138/-68
  • Gender: Male
  • On the rise!
    • Facebook
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #40 on: December 18, 2016, 07:59:49 am »
I did this for the last cycle and the upper classifications were dead on. Some of the lower classifications weren't exact but most big changes were reflected. With x1 cross checking and me adjusting some of my calculation methods, I feel confident that most of this will be correct.

Wow, so we actually could end up playing Dollarway? Didn't expect to see that anytime soon! Thanks, dude.

Offline Lions84

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 20,207
  • Karma: +957/-1348
  • Gender: Male
  • Clarendon Lion Football since 1909
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #41 on: December 21, 2016, 05:32:28 pm »
I predict several of us will be mad when it all sad and done.

Offline beach bum

  • Assistant Coach
  • *
  • Posts: 4,247
  • Karma: +329/-419
  • Gender: Male
  • Fearless Friday--The Online Home of Arkansas High School Sports!
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #42 on: December 21, 2016, 06:11:40 pm »
One thing to look for is how will the AAA splits the 1-3A and 4-3A next cycle? It did not make a whole lot of sense in the fact that Greenland and Elkins were driving past Lamar and some other schools in the 4-3A to get to schools like Clinton and Melbourne. I think they will do it one of two ways this time. I am basing this off of the numbers you have presented above for the 3A..... If Yellville Summit stays 3A barely then I have one option. If they go 2A barely then I have another option that makes sense listed in OPTION 1 below. Green Forest is listed as the smallest 4A public school in this list so they could also replace Yellville Summit or be put in the list if they stay 3A in Yellville's place. This might be one of the most interesting questions about conferences for football no matter the classification. A lot of the 1-3A/4-3A formation will do with how spot on the numbers are cause a lot of these schools in the NWA and River Valley area like Green Forest/Elkins/Booneville/West Fork could flex between 3A or 4A and schools like Yellville Summitt/Danvile flex between 2A or 3A cause those schools are very close at the top or bottom of their classifications numbers. The biggest question overall obviously is if they do the combined conferences or not in the other sports?

OPTION 1:

1-3A: Greenland, West Fork, Cedarville, Mansfield, Charleston, Booneville, Lamar, Paris (TALK ABOUT LOADED FOR A 3A CONFERENCE)

4-3A:Marshall, Clinton, Mountain View, Two Rivers, Danville, Perryville, Atkins, Melbourne OR Mayflower (Either team could join and makes sense, if Melbourne joins here then Mayflower goes to the 2-3A, If Mayflower joins then Melbourne goes to the 3-3A)

OPTION 2 (and more along the line of what the AAA has been doing the last two cycles, AND this is if Yellville Summit stays 3A instead of being the largest 2A like they are projected ):

1-3A:West Fork, Cedarville, Greenland, Yellville Summit, Clinton, Mountain View, Melbourne, Marshall

4-3A:Mansfield, Charleston, Booneville, Danville, Two Rivers, Paris, Lamar, Perryville (Still very strong league)


« Last Edit: December 22, 2016, 11:57:41 am by beach bum »

Offline WillC

  • Water Boy
  • *
  • Posts: 68
  • Karma: +0/-0
  • Fearless Friday--The Online Home of Arkansas High School Sports!
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #43 on: January 27, 2017, 09:00:21 am »
Do you foresee any splits in the top 8 7A teams in the near future?

From what I hear, Fayetteville is at least pretty adamant about not splitting. Rogers has this New Tech high that does not sponsor athletics (I believe athletes still play with Rogers and Heritage). I remember seeing a sign in the Chaffee Crossing area that said "Future Home of the Next Fort Smith High School." Not sure if that's going tthough or not. I have no idea about the Little Rock area.

Online HorseFeathers

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 27,387
  • Karma: +1073/-1478
  • Gender: Male
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #44 on: January 27, 2017, 07:35:48 pm »
One thing to look for is how will the AAA splits the 1-3A and 4-3A next cycle? It did not make a whole lot of sense in the fact that Greenland and Elkins were driving past Lamar and some other schools in the 4-3A to get to schools like Clinton and Melbourne. I think they will do it one of two ways this time. I am basing this off of the numbers you have presented above for the 3A..... If Yellville Summit stays 3A barely then I have one option. If they go 2A barely then I have another option that makes sense listed in OPTION 1 below. Green Forest is listed as the smallest 4A public school in this list so they could also replace Yellville Summit or be put in the list if they stay 3A in Yellville's place. This might be one of the most interesting questions about conferences for football no matter the classification. A lot of the 1-3A/4-3A formation will do with how spot on the numbers are cause a lot of these schools in the NWA and River Valley area like Green Forest/Elkins/Booneville/West Fork could flex between 3A or 4A and schools like Yellville Summitt/Danvile flex between 2A or 3A cause those schools are very close at the top or bottom of their classifications numbers. The biggest question overall obviously is if they do the combined conferences or not in the other sports?

OPTION 1:

1-3A: Greenland, West Fork, Cedarville, Mansfield, Charleston, Booneville, Lamar, Paris (TALK ABOUT LOADED FOR A 3A CONFERENCE)

4-3A:Marshall, Clinton, Mountain View, Two Rivers, Danville, Perryville, Atkins, Melbourne OR Mayflower (Either team could join and makes sense, if Melbourne joins here then Mayflower goes to the 2-3A, If Mayflower joins then Melbourne goes to the 3-3A)

OPTION 2 (and more along the line of what the AAA has been doing the last two cycles, AND this is if Yellville Summit stays 3A instead of being the largest 2A like they are projected ):

1-3A:West Fork, Cedarville, Greenland, Yellville Summit, Clinton, Mountain View, Melbourne, Marshall

4-3A:Mansfield, Charleston, Booneville, Danville, Two Rivers, Paris, Lamar, Perryville (Still very strong league)




As an outsider I hope they "fix" the train wreck 1-3a....Melbourne to west fork(read Batesville to Fayetteville for those not familiar) on any night is to far for a conference game...Especially when you drive through and within a stone's throw of most of the 4-3a to get there....

Offline Coach Jones

  • Fearless Friday Moderator
  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1,014
  • Karma: +196/-147
  • Gender: Male
  • What's a guy got to do to get a clap around here?
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #45 on: March 06, 2017, 12:27:41 pm »
Did you run your ADM on a 3 year average?  Isn't that how it is calculated? 

Online ricepig

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 17,429
  • Karma: +625/-666
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #46 on: March 06, 2017, 12:54:36 pm »
Did you run your ADM on a 3 year average?  Isn't that how it is calculated?

It's suppose to be a three year average of your Oct. 1st enrollment of your 9th-11th grades.

Offline Lions84

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 20,207
  • Karma: +957/-1348
  • Gender: Male
  • Clarendon Lion Football since 1909
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #47 on: March 14, 2017, 08:53:58 pm »
Don't like the 8 team districts in 2A.

Offline Almatrackster

  • Head Coach
  • **
  • Posts: 9,216
  • Karma: +675/-228
  • Gender: Male
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #48 on: March 15, 2017, 07:54:52 am »
Did you run your ADM on a 3 year average?  Isn't that how it is calculated?

Yes, I did.

Offline MikeDiesel™

  • Hall of Famer
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,079
  • Karma: +377/-351
  • Gender: Male
  • Just call me Jess Norman
Re: Predictions for Reclassification for 2018-2020 Cycle
« Reply #49 on: March 25, 2017, 04:30:34 pm »
5A. Blytheville - 506.333
5A. Little Rock Christian - 410.000
5A. Pulaski Academy - 301.000


4A. Little Rock Mills - 497.333 - Football 1
4A. Monticello - 495.333 - Football 2

I sure did think Blytheville was going to drop down this time.  We need one of those big schools to split real quick I guess :)

 

Fox 16 Arkansas Fox 24 Arkansas
Hot n' Ready Player of the Game
Fearless Friday FANatic