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Daily lines (boys)

Started by Ba$ketballFan54321, February 12, 2018, 11:36:52 am

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thebigman3

Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 23, 2018, 08:12:19 am
Congrats to all the schools who are going to the state tournament! Great accomplishment. Now that the field is set, it's time to see how it all shakes out. Here are the lines for tonight's games:

Woodlawn   57.9%   -4.0
Strong   42.1%   
         
Bay   19.6%   
Izard County   80.4%   -17.8
      
Kingston   46.5%   
Western Grove   53.5%   -1.8
   
County Line   52.4%   -1.2
Kirby   47.6%   
   
Guy-Perkins   71.8%   -11.6
Maumelle Charter   28.2%   
   
Deer   32.5%   
Omaha   67.5%   -9.1
   
Dermott   45.4%   
Nevada   54.6%   -2.3

Acorn   47.1%   
Scranton   52.9%   -1.4
   
Rector   49.2%   
Armorel   50.8%   -0.4

Wonderview   34.1%   
Mt. Vernon-Enola   65.9%   -8.2
My upset pick would be WV over MVE. Squires is a great coach and probabaky has a game plan. I do, however, think MVE will win but wouldn't surprise me if WV wins. Good luck to both.

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: thebigman3 on February 23, 2018, 11:41:08 am
Nevada and Dermott game of the day for me.

Should be a good one! That region is so evenly matched. No overwhelming favorite. Any of the 4 teams left could conceivably win it.

doctor in the house

It was a packed house at Alpena last night and it will be even more crowded tonight.. Great atmosphere and excellent hosts! We're gonna get there early!
I think the Deer vs Omaha game may be closer then projected here.. Western Grove and Kingston is a coin flip, staying out of foul trouble may be the key to this one..
Thanks for the projections, I enjoy reading them!

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: doctor in the house on February 23, 2018, 11:54:11 am
It was a packed house at Alpena last night and it will be even more crowded tonight.. Great atmosphere and excellent hosts! We're gonna get there early!
I think the Deer vs Omaha game may be closer then projected here.. Western Grove and Kingston is a coin flip, staying out of foul trouble may be the key to this one..
Thanks for the projections, I enjoy reading them!

Yeah I'm gonna agree with you there.. I'd be inclined to take the under on Deer vs Omaha. Should be two really good games!
You're welcome! Glad you enjoy them.

begpmat

Deer is due for a good game, didn't play well in finals against Grove and played terrible last night against Alpena. If they would of played Omaha last night Omaha would of mercy ruled them.

HorseFeathers

Quote from: begpmat on February 23, 2018, 01:03:34 pm
Deer is due for a good game, didn't play well in finals against Grove and played terrible last night against Alpena. If they would of played Omaha last night Omaha would of mercy ruled them.

Or it's the track record of not being a good post season team

hooperfromwestside

Quote from: BannerMountainMan on February 23, 2018, 08:33:07 am
Maumelle Charter over Guy I'm calling it!!
Lets just go ahead and get this out of the way so yall can save your time. Yall will all be "calling" that guy loses to every team they play because thats what you wanna see. Your teams season is over so you decide to start hating. Im sure we will hear about that "horrible call" until next season starts. Smh

thebigman3


BannerMountainMan

That's crazy how much a difference a night makes for Charter, couldn't miss tough shots the other night and they couldn't make any wide open shots tonight and Guy's snowbirding offense was impressive! They are clicking at the right time

Ba$ketballFan54321

Plenty of upsets last night!

Here are today's games:

3rd/4th place games:

Scranton   21.0%   
County Line   79.0%   -16.7
   
Rector   19.9%   
Izard County   80.1%   -17.3
   
Omaha   75.1%   -13.7
Western Grove   24.9%   
   
Wonderview   52.8%   -1.4
Maumelle Charter   47.2%   
      
Dermott   52.3%   -1.1
Woodlawn   47.7%   
      
Championships:
   
Armorel   51.8%   -0.9
Bay   48.2%   
   
Mt. Vernon-Enola   46.1%   
Guy-Perkins   53.9%   -2.0
      
Nevada   64.3%   -7.4
Strong   35.7%   
   
Acorn   20.5%   
Kirby   79.5%   -16.9
   
Deer   62.3%   -6.4
Kingston   37.7%   

thebigman3

Considering how close WG played Omaha last time I think they have a lot higher chance than what's said here.. should be an interesting game.

Ba$ketballFan54321

State tournament time!
 
            Win 1st   Elite 8   Final 4   Finals   Champs
Kingston   100.0%   58.7%   25.4%   6.4%   2.6%
               
Woodlawn   46.7%   19.3%   7.8%   0.8%   0.3%
Rector   53.3%   22.0%   8.7%   2.1%   0.5%
               
Acorn   100.0%   37.5%   18.5%   4.8%   1.2%
MVE     100.0%   62.5%   39.6%   14.5%   7.1%
               
Kirby      100.0%   65.1%   38.0%   28.8%   18.5%
               
M.Charter   20.0%   2.5%   0.5%   0.4%   0.1%
Omaha   80.0%   32.4%   16.7%   11.9%   7.2%
               
Izard C.   100.0%   74.6%   38.1%   27.2%   15.0%
Nevada   100.0%   25.4%   6.7%   3.1%   0.9%
               
               
Bay      100.0%   27.3%   13.3%   4.8%   1.3%
               
C.Line   82.1%   65.2%   50.4%   32.0%   19.1%
W.view   17.9%   7.5%   3.4%   1.4%   0.3%
               
W. Grove   100.0%   67.7%   24.6%   9.3%   3.1%
Strong   100.0%   32.3%   8.3%   2.0%   0.1%
               
Guy           100.0%   72.0%   44.2%   26.1%   13.7%
               
Dermott   51.5%   15.5%   6.6%   3.0%   1.1%
Scranton   48.5%   12.5%   5.2%   1.3%   0.3%
               
Armorel   100.0%   28.7%   7.9%   2.9%   0.6%
Deer           100.0%   71.3%   36.1%   17.2%   7.0%

HorseFeathers

Is that a mess for everyone else...or just my phone?

BannerChaser95

Quote from: HorseFeathers on February 25, 2018, 01:56:24 pm
Is that a mess for everyone else...or just my phone?
works our perfect on mine.

BannerMountainMan

Quote from: HorseFeathers on February 25, 2018, 01:56:24 pm
Is that a mess for everyone else...or just my phone?
thats what a flip phone will do for yah

BannerChaser95

Quad 2 has 3 teams  with 18.5%, 15.0%, and 7.2% chance to win state. Quad 2 winner has the best chance to win state in my eyes.

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: HorseFeathers on February 25, 2018, 01:56:24 pm
Is that a mess for everyone else...or just my phone?

I'll admit, the format is not perfect. I couldn't figure out how to make a nice, clean table. Sorry about that!

HorseFeathers

Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 25, 2018, 02:11:49 pm
I'll admit, the format is not perfect. I couldn't figure out how to make a nice, clean table. Sorry about that!

Serious question....you want to learn? I can send you the code for it all with an explanation

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: HorseFeathers on February 25, 2018, 02:15:17 pm
Serious question....you want to learn? I can send you the code for it all with an explanation

Yeah I do! That would be great!

Ba$ketballFan54321

After day 1!

          Elite 8   Final 4   Finals   Champs
Kingston   62.2%   28.9%   7.5%   3.4%
Woodlawn   37.8%   13.6%   2.7%   0.7%
            
Acorn   38.4%   19.2%   4.1%   0.7%
MVE      61.6%   38.3%   13.5%   5.2%
            
Kirby    58.0%   34.6%   26.8%   18.5%
Omaha   42.0%   22.4%   16.4%   8.5%
            
Izard C.   74.3%   35.8%   25.3%   13.6%
Nevada   25.7%   7.2%   3.7%   0.9%
            
            
Bay        21.2%   11.1%   3.6%   1.3%
C.Line   78.8%   63.1%   41.0%   24.4%
            
W. Grove   68.0%   20.3%   8.4%   3.6%
Strong   32.0%   5.5%   1.7%   0.5%
            
Guy     69.5%   43.0%   22.3%   10.1%
Dermott   30.5%   9.4%   3.1%   1.2%
            
Armorel   28.6%   9.7%   3.3%   0.8%
Deer        71.4%   37.9%   16.6%   6.6%

Ba$ketballFan54321

Also... I took MaxPreps' girls rankings and plugged them in to my tournament sim. Thought I'd share that too!

Wins:   Elite 8   Final 4   Finals   Champs
Jasper   59.8%   30.1%   14.9%   7.3%
Maynard   40.2%   15.8%   5.9%   2.5%
            
Acorn   37.2%   17.2%   8.8%   5.0%
MVE     62.8%   36.9%   22.3%   10.2%
            
Kirby   50.4%   29.0%   14.7%   7.5%
Concord   49.6%   29.4%   14.1%   7.1%
            
Mammoth   62.1%   29.6%   14.9%   7.3%
Ouachita   37.9%   12.0%   4.4%   1.9%
            
Norfork   86.2%   76.2%   47.0%   24.9%
Rural Spec   13.8%   6.8%   1.0%   0.3%
            
Alpena   56.7%   9.4%   1.7%   1.0%
Strong   43.3%   7.6%   1.5%   1.1%
            
W.view   90.1%   60.4%   34.7%   17.0%
Mount Ida   9.9%   1.7%   0.1%   0.0%
            
Bay   73.5%   32.8%   12.3%   6.1%
Kingston   26.5%   5.1%   1.7%   0.8%

J.D.

Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 26, 2018, 10:39:33 pm
After day 1!

          Elite 8   Final 4   Finals   Champs
Kingston   62.2%   28.9%   7.5%   3.4%
Woodlawn   37.8%   13.6%   2.7%   0.7%
            
Acorn   38.4%   19.2%   4.1%   0.7%
MVE      61.6%   38.3%   13.5%   5.2%
            
Kirby    58.0%   34.6%   26.8%   18.5%
Omaha   42.0%   22.4%   16.4%   8.5%
            
Izard C.   74.3%   35.8%   25.3%   13.6%
Nevada   25.7%   7.2%   3.7%   0.9%
            
            
Bay        21.2%   11.1%   3.6%   1.3%
C.Line   78.8%   63.1%   41.0%   24.4%
            
W. Grove   68.0%   20.3%   8.4%   3.6%
Strong   32.0%   5.5%   1.7%   0.5%
            
Guy     69.5%   43.0%   22.3%   10.1%
Dermott   30.5%   9.4%   3.1%   1.2%
            
Armorel   28.6%   9.7%   3.3%   0.8%
Deer        71.4%   37.9%   16.6%   6.6%

County Line a favorite according to this.  Wild stuff.

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: J.D. on February 26, 2018, 10:51:04 pm
County Line a favorite according to this.  Wild stuff.

Yeah the computer is still a fan of County Line, even after their 2 recent losses. Also, their side of the bracket is not quite as strong. Kirby, Izard County, and Omaha are 3 of the top 4 teams and they're all on the same side.

BannerChaser95

Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 26, 2018, 11:09:14 pm
Yeah the computer is still a fan of County Line, even after their 2 recent losses. Also, their side of the bracket is not quite as strong. Kirby, Izard County, and Omaha are 3 of the top 4 teams and they're all on the same side.
2 of them face each other today... the winner? Gets the reward of either playing the other or a team capable of beating the other.  JUST TO MAKE SEMIS.... then you gota win 2 more lol

eamo8911

Wow! It really likes county line if it's putting them with a 25% chance to be in the finals

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: BannerChaser95 on February 27, 2018, 04:29:01 am
2 of them face each other today... the winner? Gets the reward of either playing the other or a team capable of beating the other.  JUST TO MAKE SEMIS.... then you gota win 2 more lol
Haha yeah! It's tough!

Quote from: eamo8911 on February 27, 2018, 07:52:10 am
Wow! It really likes county line if it's putting them with a 25% chance to be in the finals

41% chance to be in the finals! 24.4% to win it all. Yeah those are really good odds. But of course anything can happen! I mean they almost got bounced in the first round haha. You have to beat some quality teams to get there. The odds are still greater that they *don't* make it than if they do.

FaceInTheCrowd

Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 26, 2018, 10:43:16 pm
Also... I took MaxPreps' girls rankings and plugged them in to my tournament sim. Thought I'd share that too!

Wins:   Elite 8   Final 4   Finals   Champs
Jasper   59.8%   30.1%   14.9%   7.3%
Maynard   40.2%   15.8%   5.9%   2.5%
            
Acorn   37.2%   17.2%   8.8%   5.0%
MVE     62.8%   36.9%   22.3%   10.2%
            
Kirby   50.4%   29.0%   14.7%   7.5%
Concord   49.6%   29.4%   14.1%   7.1%
            
Mammoth   62.1%   29.6%   14.9%   7.3%
Ouachita   37.9%   12.0%   4.4%   1.9%
            
Norfork   86.2%   76.2%   47.0%   24.9%
Rural Spec   13.8%   6.8%   1.0%   0.3%
            
Alpena   56.7%   9.4%   1.7%   1.0%
Strong   43.3%   7.6%   1.5%   1.1%
            
W.view   90.1%   60.4%   34.7%   17.0%
Mount Ida   9.9%   1.7%   0.1%   0.0%
            
Bay   73.5%   32.8%   12.3%   6.1%
Kingston   26.5%   5.1%   1.7%   0.8%

I'm constantly amazed and intrigued by the amount of data you process!  Wow!  So, just to make sure I'm reading correctly, your calculations show Wonderview beating Bay in the Quarter Finals?

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: FaceInTheCrowd on February 27, 2018, 08:37:32 am
I'm constantly amazed and intrigued by the amount of data you process!  Wow!  So, just to make sure I'm reading correctly, your calculations show Wonderview beating Bay in the Quarter Finals?

Thanks! I'm no professional statistician or anything haha but I enjoy playing with the data.
Yes, that's correct. Wonderview has a 90.1% chance of beating Mount Ida and Bay has a 73.5% chance of beating Kingston, then Wonderview has a 60.4% chance of winning in the next round. That 60.4% is of course based on all possible outcomes so it's not straight up Wonderview vs. Bay. Hope that makes sense!

eamo8911

Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 27, 2018, 09:16:09 am
Thanks! I'm no professional statistician or anything haha but I enjoy playing with the data.
Yes, that's correct. Wonderview has a 90.1% chance of beating Mount Ida and Bay has a 73.5% chance of beating Kingston, then Wonderview has a 60.4% chance of winning in the next round. That 60.4% is of course based on all possible outcomes so it's not straight up Wonderview vs. Bay. Hope that makes sense!

Are you using SPSS?  Just curious

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: eamo8911 on February 27, 2018, 11:50:55 am
Are you using SPSS?  Just curious

I use Excel. Which is not the most efficient haha. I use R some but I'm just a lot more comfortable with Excel.

FaceInTheCrowd

Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 27, 2018, 09:16:09 am
Thanks! I'm no professional statistician or anything haha but I enjoy playing with the data.
Yes, that's correct. Wonderview has a 90.1% chance of beating Mount Ida and Bay has a 73.5% chance of beating Kingston, then Wonderview has a 60.4% chance of winning in the next round. That 60.4% is of course based on all possible outcomes so it's not straight up Wonderview vs. Bay. Hope that makes sense!

It does, thanks!  Have you also calculated the percentage of the time that you (or should I say your spreadsheet) picks the winners correctly?

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: FaceInTheCrowd on February 27, 2018, 01:22:05 pm
It does, thanks!  Have you also calculated the percentage of the time that you (or should I say your spreadsheet) picks the winners correctly?

Good deal! And yes, I have. It's correct almost 85% of the time.

eamo8911

Quote from: Ba$ketballFan54321 on February 27, 2018, 02:02:33 pm
Good deal! And yes, I have. It's correct almost 85% of the time.

p>.05  SHAAAAME!  (a little stats humor)

eamo8911

Guess Excel won't like County Line anymore. Two of the pre-regional top 5 out today.

Ba$ketballFan54321

Wow what a day! Congrats to Woodlawn and Kirby and a big congrats to Bay. Sounds like it was a good one.
Don't listen to the computer, folks ;) LOL

            Elite 8   Final 4   Finals   Champs
Woodlawn   100.0%   37.1%   6.0%   1.6%
            
Acorn   35.0%   19.5%   4.9%   1.9%
MVE    65.0%   43.4%   15.4%   7.9%
            
Kirby   100.0%   61.5%   46.6%   33.4%
            
Izard C.   76.1%   33.9%   24.9%   15.7%
Nevada   23.9%   4.6%   2.2%   1.1%
            
            
Bay   100.0%   47.4%   18.0%   3.9%
            
W.Grove   68.7%   39.6%   16.8%   5.8%
Strong   31.3%   13.0%   3.2%   0.6%
            
Guy   71.6%   46.1%   31.6%   15.6%
Dermott   28.4%   11.3%   4.4%   1.2%
            
Armorel   26.7%   6.1%   2.4%   0.6%
Deer   73.3%   36.5%   23.6%   10.7%

Ba$ketballFan54321

Updated after Wednesday's games!

           Elite 8   Final 4   Finals   Champs
W.lawn   100.0%   31.0%   6.0%   1.7%
MVE    100.0%   69.0%   22.6%   11.1%
            
Kirby   100.0%   55.2%   40.8%   28.3%
Izard C.   100.0%   44.8%   30.6%   20.1%
            
Bay   100.0%   45.9%   14.5%   3.6%
            
W.Grove   67.5%   42.0%   15.9%   6.1%
Strong   32.5%   12.1%   3.1%   0.6%
            
Guy   100.0%   64.3%   44.4%   20.1%
            
Armorel   27.1%   5.6%   2.5%   0.4%
Deer   72.9%   30.1%   19.6%   8.0%

doctor in the house

I hope this is correct for today but no better than the region 1 have played so far I have some doubts...

Ba$ketballFan54321

Quote from: doctor in the house on March 01, 2018, 09:11:37 am
I hope this is correct for today but no better than the region 1 have played so far I have some doubts...

Armorel/Deer could be a lot closer than what is projected. Each team has a big difference in their Elo and their SRS (points above average). If you look at just their SRS it's basically a coin flip.

Ba$ketballFan54321

March 02, 2018, 08:18:39 am #88 Last Edit: March 02, 2018, 08:22:33 am by Ba$ketballFan54321
We'll have a final 4 after today!

       Final 4    Finals     Champs
MVE   100.0%   32.6%   16.3%
         
Kirby   55.9%   37.7%   27.1%
Izard C.   44.1%   29.7%   19.9%
         
Bay   43.8%   14.5%   3.1%
W.Grove   56.2%   24.7%   8.3%
         
Guy   78.9%   53.2%   23.7%
Armorel   21.1%   7.6%   1.6%

And the lines for today:

Kirby -3
Izard County

Bay
Western Grove -2

Guy -16
Armorel


And here's the girls (using MaxPreps rankings):

     Final 4     Finals     Champs
MVE   100.0%   58.3%   29.0%
         
Kirby   51.7%   24.7%   11.3%
Mammoth   48.3%   17.0%   8.3%
         
Norfork   86.0%   52.1%   26.4%
Alpena   14.0%   1.8%   0.9%
         
W.view   60.9%   29.8%   15.2%
Bay   39.1%   16.3%   8.9%

HorseFeathers


Ba$ketballFan54321

Today's lines!

Mt. Vernon-Enola      34.7%
Izard County    -7.8  65.3%

Western Grove       32.1%
Guy-Perkins    -9.4 67.9%

thebigman3

I gotta pick Region 3... both for boys and girls..

Ba$ketballFan54321

I appreciate everyone who has read my posts and commented on my projections. This has made something that I merely do as a hobby really worthwhile. It has been a fun year of basketball. We'll see what the future holds but I hope to keep providing content in some capacity again next year.

Annnnnd the final line for the 17-18 season!

Guy-Perkins          43.1%
Izard County -3.4  56.9%

Should be a good one! Good luck to both teams.

Fox 16 Arkansas Fox 24 Arkansas